Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Who knew that with the Bears in New Orleans to take on the Saints and Cam Newton hosting the defending champs that Raiders-Bills would be the most entertaining early game on Sunday? I’m pretty sure neither defense dressed for the second half but this game had it all: a major come-from-behind victory, plenty of big plays (that TD Denarius Moore caught from Jason Campbell was siiiick), and a last-minute touchdown pass on fourth down (see the photo above as Scott Chandler scores the game-winner). It’s actually fun to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick run Buffalo’s dare-I-say-high-powered offense.

- I was impressed by Cam Newton in his pro debut (how could you not be?), but I fully admit that I expected him to fall flat on his face against the Packers. Naturally he comes out and throws for over 400 yards again and is now on pace to pass for 6,832 yards this season. He’s also completing over 60% of his passes and had he not turned the ball over three times, I’m not so sure the Panthers don’t beat the Packers today. I don’t know if this is beginner’s luck or we’re seeing the next great thing at quarterback but I shudder to think what he’ll do once the game actually starts slowing down for him.

- Let me get this straight: the Ravens rack up 35 points on the Steelers’ defense but couldn’t muster more than a touchdown and two field goals against the Titans? Some were concerned that the Ravens would come out flat after their impressive win over the Steelers last Sunday and “some” were right. Matt Hasselbeck took advantage of a depleted Baltimore secondary all afternoon, completing 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 358 yards and a touchdown. Hasselbeck was helped by the fact that the Ravens wanted nothing to do with pressuring him as they finished with zero sacks.

- Jaguars win a gutsy 16-14 game over the Titans in their season opener, then fail to show up today and are blasted by the Jets, 32-3. Titans look hapless in Jacksonville last week, then came out on Sunday and romp a Raven team that destroyed the Steelers last week. The NFL is screwy, I tell ya.

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Well, I’m pretty sure the announcement for NFL MVP comes down this weekend, so let me begin by saying that I was not influenced by anything that I read when making these picks…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Brady, who is going to run away with this award, played about half a game last Sunday, and still threw for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since like early October.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Vick did Brady a favor by not being in the lineup against Dallas in Week 17, but he and his coach know what’s more important, and that is for him and some nagging injuries, resting up for the Packers.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He wound up third in yards (4620) and tied for second in TDs (33) but uncharacteristically threw for 22 interceptions.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 picks. But most impressive is the way Peyton led his team to the postseason when things looked bleak.

5. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—Cassel had a dreadful game in Week 17, but we stand by the fact that this was a trio that helped a young KC team win their division and a 4-seed.

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Not only did he lead the league in rushing (1616 yards), but Foster added a whopping 66 receptions for 604 more yards—giving him 2220 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs.

7. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Well, at 13-3, someone had to be good for them to get there, especially with all of those come from behind wins.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Finished with 3922/28/11 in 15 games, but what counts is leading his team to the postseason berth they deserve.

9. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—If they could do last year’s draft over again, do you think Matthews would still be picked at #26?

10. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—You know, he led the NFL in passing yards (4710) and had 30 TDs with 13 interceptions. He didn’t have Antonio Gates for a while, and he had Vincent Jackson for maybe two games. That’s why we can’t discount Rivers’ numbers.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs—We had to add one more. This kid is going to be a star. Oh wait, he already is. Freeman started every game and wound up with 3451 passing yards with 25 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. By comparison, Eli Manning had more than FOUR times as many picks.

After each fantasy football season, I like to do something of a post-mortem by looking at certain stats that might give me a clearer picture of what in the hell just happened. One such stat is fantasy points per touch, which takes the total (non-PPR) fantasy points divided by the sum of the player’s carries and catches.

Here’s a look at the top 20 RBs (with at least 150 total touches) ranked by fantasy points per touch.

When trying to predict a player’s outlook, I always go back to the old fantasy addage, “Talent + Opportunity = Success.” This stat gives us an idea of a player’s talent by answering the question — how productive was this player with the touches he received? If a back is listed here, it indicates that he may very well have the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB in the NFL if he were to receive the appropriate amount of touches.

A few takeaways:

- Brandon Jacobs can run the ball. His numbers here are a little skewed due to the nine TDs he scored in 147 carries, but he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and should be the feature back somewhere even if Ahmad Bradshaw is the better all around back. 2010 marks the third season in the last four that Jacobs averaged 5.0-plus yards per carry, so his poor 2009 numbers (3.6 ypc) look to be more of an aberration than a trend.

- Jamaal Charles is really, really good. If not for the presence of Thomas Jones, he would be a top 2 or 3 RB heading into the 2011 season. As it stands, I suspect he’ll be a mid-first round pick.

- Ryan Mathews has what it takes to be a very good RB2, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs RB2 touches. His teammate, Mike Tolbert, vultured his touchdowns and will do so again if he’s still a Charger next season.

- BenJarvus Green-Ellis figures to be a sleeper heading into the 2011 season. He’s a touchdown machine and a good runner (4.4 ypc), but Belichick’s fickleness at the RB position will likely depress the Law Firm’s value a bit. He should be a very solid RB2 next season.

- Peyton Hillis outperformed Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Michael Turner on a per touch basis. Hillis should be the Browns’ feature back heading into 2011, and should continue to be productive even if Cleveland moves to a West Coast offense since he has the pass-catching skills to be effective out of the backfield.

- Michael Bush could be a star with a new team. He’s a free agent this summer, so if the Raiders don’t resign him (though they should), he could turn into a fantasy RB2 if he lands with the right team.

- Maybe Tim Hightower should be the Cardinals’ feature back. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has good hands out of the backfield. People complain about his breakaway speed, but he had an 80-yard run this season. In 292 career carries, Beanie Wells has a career long run of 33 yards.

So Michael Vick slipped a little on Tuesday night, which makes us feel better about keeping Tommy Brady (as Charlie Weis calls him) in the top spot.

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Amazingly, Brady has thrown for an NFL record 319 pass attempts without an interception, going back to Week 6. So let’s review—3701 yards, 34 TDs (NFL high) and just 4 picks, and his team is 13-2 and in the fast lane in the AFC. Damn.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Look, we can’t disregard what Vick has done this season, because it’s phenomenal. But he looked mortal against the Vikings, and also for 52 minutes against the Giants before that.

3. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—This trio has led the Chiefs to the AFC West crown. Cassel has 27 TDs to 5 picks/Jamaal has 1835 all-purpose yards and Bowe leads all NFL receivers with 15 TDs. The league won’t view this as one person, but that doesn’t mean we can’t.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—What, did you think the Saints were just going to go away? Not with this guy leading the team. But the 21 picks may hurt him in the voting.

5. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—This kid is just a beast week-in and week-out.

6. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Sure, the Falcons are impressive, especially some of the late-game heroics, but losing at home to Saints hurt.

7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Rodgers admitted that sitting out with a concussion allowed him to come back fresh in Week 16—to the tune of 404 yards and 4 TDs.

8. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—Do you get the feeling you have to account for this dude as if he were Lawrence Taylor?

9. Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills—136 total tackles (92 solo) with a sack, an interception, a forced fumble and 7 passes defensed. I know the Bills suck, but Whitner is a one-man wrecking crew.

10. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Look who’s back, and he even showed he can run—in slow motion, but he can run.

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Chiefs would have collapsed by now and the Chargers would have overtaken the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City has been in control of the division for most of the year but I’ve patiently waited for disaster to strike.

But it hasn’t. Perhaps I should have considered that their win over the Chargers in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke and this team is for real. But I didn’t. And they are.

Matt Cassel was brilliant in the Chiefs’ 34-14 win over the Titans on Sunday. He completed 24-of-34 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns, all while showing no ill effects from the appendectomy surgery he had three weeks ago. It’s amazing to think that at the start of the year, many people believed KC would have to search for a new quarterback in 2011 and now it appears that the Chiefs will only go as far as he takes them. Understandably, it took a while for him to get comfortable in Charlie Weis’ system but now that he is, the skies the limit for both him and KC. (It also doesn’t hurt that he has a couple of great weapons around him in Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe).

Granted, things could still turn sour for KC next week and seeing as how I have deemed them “for real,” the jinx has probably been set.

But as of this writing, the Chargers are losing at halftime to the Bengals, so it looks like the Chiefs are in good shape. If Cincinnati holds on, KC would win the AFC West for the first time since 2003. If San Diego mounts a comeback and wins, then the Chiefs would have to beat the Raiders next week or have San Diego lose at Denver.

Let’s assume for a second that the Chiefs do win the division and wrap up the No. 3 seed in the AFC. How far could this team go? Well, given how bad the Jets’ (who will have the No. 6 seed) defense has looked in recent weeks, it’s not a stretch to think that KC would move to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. And then, who knows? Nobody outside of the Patriots looks indestructible in the AFC so there’s a chance that this pesky Chiefs team could be the dark horse of the conference.

But first things first: they need to get in and then they can worry about seeding and opponents. Either way, the Chiefs continue to make noise.

“This series is brought to you by T.G.I. Friday’s, where every Sunday means Food, Fun & Football! Hut, hut, hut!”

The Scores Report has teamed up with T.G.I Friday’s to promote the action in Week 15 of the NFL. Here’s a look at Sunday’s top games.

The Top-5 Games of Week 15:

Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (9-4), 1:00PM ET
It’s gut-check time for Eli Manning. The Giants’ defense is playing extremely well of late and their running game is picking up major steam. But Manning has been terribly inconsistent this year and has reverted back to some old habits (i.e. throwing off his back foot, releasing the ball late, etc.). The Giants are averaging –0.2 turnovers per game this year and that’s a trend that will have to halt over these next three weeks if they don’t want to miss the playoffs. On the other side, the Eagles must figure out how to better protect Michael Vick because he’s taking too many hits. The Giants’ front four will be relentless on Sunday, just as they were in Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The winner of this game holds its own destiny in the race for the NFC East crown.

Jaguars (8-5) @ Colts (7-6), 1:00PM ET
One would have thought the records for these two teams would be reversed when they met in Week 15. And actually, nobody expected the Jaguars to have eight wins at this point and the Colts to have six losses but here we are. The Jags are in control of their own destiny in the AFC South. If they can beat Indy on Sunday, they’ll win the division and then they can use these next two weeks to try and gain better playoff positioning in the AFC. If they lose, then the division will be flipped on its head and then it becomes a foot race over the next two weeks. In terms of a game plan, you couldn’t find two teams more on the opposite side of the spectrum. The Colts want Peyton Manning to take advantage of Jacksonville’s vulnerable secondary, while the Jags will run Maurice Jones-Drew at the soft interior of Indy’s defensive line. But if the Colts jump out early, will they force the Jags to throw?

Saints (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4), 1:00PM ET
Both of these teams are expected to make the playoffs but that doesn’t make this game any less meaningful. The Saints are still one game behind the Falcons in the NFC South and the Ravens are one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North. Baltimore would love to prove that Houston’s fourth quarter rally on Monday night was a product of a complacent offense and a tired defense, but you know Drew Brees and Sean Payton will attack the Ravens’ secondary early and often. Baltimore needs to get Ray Rice and its running game going in order to leave Brees and the Saints’ explosive offense on the sidelines. Even though Joe Flacco has posted good numbers this season, the Ravens don’t want to turn this game into a track meet because they’ll lose. We should find out a lot about these two teams on Sunday.

Jets (9-4) @ Steelers (10-3), 4:15 PM ET
Nobody expects Matt Flynn to beat the Patriots on Sunday night so there’s not much sense talking about that game. Plus, the Jets-Steelers matchup offers more storylines anyway. Can Mark Sanchez reclaim the confidence that he’s lost over the past couple of weeks? How will Troy Polamalu’s injury affect a Pittsburgh defense that has played lights out recently? Can the Jets’ defense drum up enough of a pass rush to take advantage of a thin Steelers’ O-line? Can Ben Roethlisberger continue to play well despite having broken bones in his foot? One would expect the Steelers to roll this weekend but more than likely, this is going to be the best defensive matchup on the Week 15 schedule.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Rams (6-7), 1:00PM ET
The Chiefs are still in first place in the AFC West but with the Chargers winning on Thursday night, their margin for error is now razor thin. The Rams were helped by the 49ers losing and could be helped even more with a win and a Seahawks’ (vs. Falcons) loss. But Sam Bradford and Co. need the win first. Matt Cassel is expected to play after missing last week due to an appendectomy and he couldn’t come back a moment sooner. Kansas City was shut out last weekend at San Diego and will need their offense to find its balance again. Jamaal Charles is an emerging star but he needs Cassel and the passing game to help take the pressure off his shoulders. The Rams have been tough at the Edward Jones Dome this year, winning four of their six games at home. They’ll look to take advantage of a Chiefs team that is just 2-5 on the road this season.

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The Chiefs and running back Jamaal Charles have agreed to a five-year, $32.5 million contract with $13 million guaranteed. Charles’ 1,137 rushing yards this season tie him with Chris Johnson and rank him third behind Arian Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew for most rushing yards in the NFL.

The new deal works for both sides, as the Chiefs lock up one of the league’s most dangerous runners and Charles is now able to hit free agency at 28 (two years before the dreaded age of 30 for running backs). Now the Chiefs can turn their attention to locking up outside linebacker Tamba Hali, who is an impeding free agent.

In other Kansas City-related news, quarterback Matt Cassel is listed as doubtful for Week 14. That means Brodie Croyle will start under center for the Chiefs in their important battle with division rival San Diego on Sunday. Croyle hasn’t seen action since Week 13 of last season.

The RBBC in Kansas City has been a hot topic for debate in the world of fantasy football. Actually, no it hasn’t. Fantasy owners are pretty much united in the belief that Jamaal Charles is the best, most explosive running back in Kansas City, yet Thomas Jones continues to start and eat into Charles’ fantasy production. Head coach Todd Haley is nothing if not stubborn (most NFL coaches are), so we weren’t going to see him tinker with what was ‘working.’

Now with the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts on Sunday, will we finally see the 60/40 or 65/35 (Charles/TJ) split that we were expecting when we drafted Charles in the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th round this summer?

The signs are encouraging and discouraging at the same time.

On one hand, Charles got 16 carries (for 87 yards, a 5.4 ypc average) to TJ’s eight (for 19 yards, 2.4 ypc). Charles was also targeted six times in the passing game (3-14), so he received 19 touches to Jones’s eight.

But what’s worrisome is that even after an 11-carry, 66-yard first half, Jones still started the third quarter. On the Chiefs’ first drive in the quarter, he had a 3-yard carry followed by a 6-yard carry before being stuffed for a 2-yard loss on a 3rd-and-1.

Time to punt.

At this point, Jones had 22 yards on six carries, which isn’t great, but it isn’t terrible either. (Charles was averaging 6.0 ypc at this point, so the disparity was clear.) On the Chiefs’ next drive, Charles rattled off carries of 14-yards and 7-yards before being pulled on a 2nd-and-5 from the Colts’ 12-yard line. Jones got the carry and lost five yards. One incomplete pass to Dwayne Bowe later and the Chiefs had to kick the field goal.

Charles played most of the rest of the way, but the Chiefs started throwing the ball more. In the final quarter, Charles had 11 yards on four carries along with two catches for 11 yards. Jones had one carry for two yards.

It appears that Haley realizes Charles is the better back, but he simply refuses to start him. This gives Jones an opportunity to get going early, and if he does have success on that first drive in each half, he’ll continue to vulture more carries from the Chiefs’ best offensive player.

They say that it doesn’t really matter who starts, but whoever is given the first opportunity is given the first opportunity to succeed. If Jones gets the running game going early, then Charles isn’t going to see as many carries over the course of the game. If Charles were starting, he’d have the first crack (and at 6.5 ypc, he probably wouldn’t give up the ball). And it’s not like Charles hasn’t proven he can carry the load. Over the last eight games of the 2009 season, he averaged 23 touches for 141 yards. With Jones on the roster, there’s no need to wear Charles down, but 18-20 touches is a good blueprint for offensive success.

In that respect, this week’s game is a good sign for Charles owners. But Thomas Jones is still the starter in Kansas City.

We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and there are lots of wacky things happening. The Chiefs are 3-0 and the only undefeated team. That’s a far cry from last year, when the Colts and Saints were unbeaten almost all the way to the end of the 2009 campaign. There are also some interesting candidates emerging for MVP consideration, as well as for Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year. And like last year, we’ll start to analyze them in power rankings fashion. For this week and maybe the next few, we’ll put this in one post and give three names for each category. Around the halfway point of the season, more candidates will emerge so we will separate things out. Sound good? Right. Let’s go……..

MVP Power Rankings

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Do we even have to spell this out? He steps in for Kevin Kolb in Week 1 and almost leads the Eagles to victory against the Packers. Then he wins against Detroit and Jacksonville before having his ribs crushed on a meaningless play vs. Washington last Sunday, knocking him out of the game early. Kolb comes back in, and the Eagles lose. Vick is averaging 200 yards passing per game, has 6 TDs and no interceptions, and is also averaging 7.2 yards per rush on 26 carries and one TD on the ground. He has a QB rating of 108.8 while Kolb’s is 71.1. Simply put, this team is dangerous with Vick, and not scaring anyone without him. That’s the very definition of MVP.

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On paper, the AFC West is definitely one of the weaker divisions in football. The Chargers remain the team to beat, while the Broncos are just trying to make it to their opener without losing another starter to injury.

But the West usually produces a surprise or two along the way (i.e. Denver last year), so don’t count out the Broncos, Raiders or Chiefs before the season starts. All three of those teams come with some glaring weaknesses, but it’s not like the Chargers are the picture of perfection.

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the AFC West in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Chargers

What to Like: After finishing fifth in the league in passing yards per game (271.1) in 2009, the Chargers should once again be explosive through the air. Losing Vincent Jackson is a major blow, but adding a pass-catching back like Ryan Mathews in the draft was a nice coup. Philip Rivers returns after compiling a 104.4 QB rating last season and developing into one of the best signal callers in the game. Again, the loss of Jackson hurts, but Malcolm Floyd is ready for a breakout campaign, Antonio Gates returns as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL and the team recently acquired Patrick Crayton from the Cowboys. Brandyn Dombrowski has also looked good filling in for Marcus McNeill, who continues to holdout while seeking a new contract. Defensively, free safety Eric Weddle is coming off a great ’09 season, while Shaun Phillips and Stephen Cooper remain steady at their linebacker positions.
What Not to Like: Is there anybody left that GM A.J. Smith hasn’t pissed off? This team managed to lose its top wideout and is close to watching its best offensive tackle (McNeill) holdout well into the season. Defensively, Shawne Merriman is back but who knows how productive he’ll be after a poor showing in ’09, while Larry English failed to impress last season as well (albeit as a rookie). The defensive line lost their top run-stuffer when Jamal Williams was released and Luis Castillo has been living off his reputation for the last two years. The entire defensive line, in fact, is arguably this team’s biggest weakness. The secondary, outside of Weddle, has a ton of question marks as well.
Keep Your Eye On: Malcolm Floyd
The 28-year-old out of Wyoming will finally have his opportunity to shine now that Jackson is gone (or rather, not playing). He’s been Rivers’ favorite target so far this offseason after finishing fourth in the league last year in yards-per-catch average. If he can build off the nine-catch, 140-yard performance he had in Week 17 last year (while Jackson was out), then Floyd could be another dangerous weapon in the Chargers’ arsenal.
The Final Word: If there were another team in this division that I thought had a remote chance of overtaking the Chargers, I would probably have them winning the division. But because the West is so weak this year, the Bolts should have no problems winning 10-plus games and claiming the division again, even though they have a several weaknesses heading into the new season. Whether or not they advance in the playoffs is another story. The key is Rivers, who is an exceptional talent that has proven he can carry this team during the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal – he’s going to need help and while Mathews looks like he has all the tools to make him a solid young player, relying on a rookie is always a dangerous proposition. Defensively, this team has way too many question marks and unless guys like Merriman or English step up, I think they’re going to struggle at every level this year. A division crown looks to be on the horizon, but so does another one-and-done showing in the postseason.

San Diego Chargers 2010 NFL Question Mark: Defensive Line

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