Four weeks to go….who will stay on this list and who will drop off. Also, who will be the first coach to get fired? Maybe that’s for another list. For now, here are the best coaches/biggest surprises for 2010 thus far….

1. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—A two-game lead on the Chargers is nice when you face them in December. Let’s see where this dude sits next week.

2. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—6-6 looks much better than 5-6, doesn’t it? At least it makes the Packers (8-4) and Bucs (7-5) feel better that they’re currently out of the playoffs based on standings.

3. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—A tough schedule to finish, but that has never scared Big Andy before, and it shouldn’t when Michael Vick is at the helm.

4. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots—If you put up 39 points on the Steelers and 45 on the Jets, you’re doing something right.

5. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—The best record in the NFL should be good for something

6. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—9-3, and everyone is STILL waiting for the other shoe to drop.

7. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers—Let’s not forget the current AFC North leaders started the first quarter of the season without Big Ben

8. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants—Since being on the hot seat, Coughlin’s Giants have gone 7-2 and have won the last two games despite not having Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and more than half of their starting O-line.

9. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars—Still in the lead for the AFC South in a year when most expected him to be fired

10. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—Much improved despite having trouble beating some of the better teams

Honorable mention: Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders—Bonus points for beating the Chargers so soundly in San Diego last Sunday

Okay, so “seizing control” is a bit much. But following their easy 17-6 win over the Titans on Sunday, coupled with the Colts’ mind-blowing 38-35 loss to the Cowboys, the Jags have sole possession of first place in the division.

It would appear that Jacksonville is winning via smoke and mirrors, but that would be unfair. Their young defensive tackles Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu (remember him, draft experts?) are playing outstanding football, while the combination of Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings is working offensively. They’re wearing opponents like the Titans down in the second half and David Garrard (although not great by any stretch of the imagination) is making plays when he has to.

Their schedule down the stretch is also very winnable. They host the Raiders next Sunday before traveling to Indy the following week for their big matchup with the Colts. Then they host the Redskins and travel to Houston to play a highly inconsistent Texans team. The Jags could easily go 3-1 over the final month of the season.

It’s amazing to think that the same Jacksonville team that looked some hopeless and lost on Monday Night Football against Tennessee earlier this season is on path to make the playoffs. Staggering.

Are the Bucs for real? Who knows, but their coach sure is.

1. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—Despite how well the Falcons and Saints are playing, the Bucs are making a case for three teams to come out of the NFC South for the playoffs.

2. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—If he can hold off the Chargers, he’ll stay here. But that’s a big IF.

3. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—Raise your hand if you picked the Eagles to win the NFC East. That’s what I thought.

4. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—One game out of first, and it’s almost December. Yeah, the NFC West is kind of a joke, but still.

5. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—The current top seed in the NFC. I wonder what Bobby Petrino is doing these days.

6. (tie) Bill Belichick, New England Patriots and Rex Ryan, New York Jets—The mad scientist is probably watching film of the Jets all holiday weekend to get a jump; but don’t think Rex isn’t doing the same.

7. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—He’ll stay here if his team beats Green Bay again (January 2 at Lambeau).

8. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars—They’re what? Leading the AFC South after Week 11?

9. Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders—Hard to believe this guy was so close to losing his job a year ago, and look at him now.

10. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers—Things were bleak in Pittsburgh after a crappy end to 2009 and not having Big Ben for four games to start 2010. But now they are 7-3 and one of the better teams in the AFC.

The media often says that good teams find ways to win.

Uh, if that’s the case, then are the Jaguars a good team?

In the last three weeks, the Jags have crushed the Cowboys in Dallas, beat the Texans on a last-second Hail Mary and on Sunday, came back to beat the Browns in dramatic fashion. In their wins over the Texans and Browns, they had leads heading into halftime and in both games they had to use fourth quarter magic to pull out wins.

Down 20-17 to Cleveland with 2:46 remaining in the game, it looked like Jacksonville may be heading for a loss. But Maurice Jones-Drew broke off a 75-yard screen pass to put the Jags on the Browns’ 1-yard line. MJD scored a couple of plays later and after picking off Colt McCoy in the red zone on Cleveland’s final drive, the Jags went on to win, 24-20.

Of course, good teams generally don’t turn the ball over six times like the Jaguars did against the Browns. Yeah they won, but that had to be the ugliest win of any team all year. Phil Dawson also missed two field goals, so who knows how the game would have played out had the Browns’ kicker been more accurate. Shame on Cleveland for not converting the opportunities it had off of the Jaguars’ turnovers, but teams usually don’t win when you throw for a lower yards per pass average and turn the ball over more.

That said, no matter how you shape it, the Jaguars are 6-4. And if the Colts lose to the Patriots on Sunday, then Jacksonville will own first place in the AFC South by virtue of a tie-breaker over Indianapolis.

Their wins appear to be a collection of luck, fluke play and incredible fortune, but the Jaguars are winning nonetheless. If they can figure out a way to keep winning, they won’t need to answer whether or not they’re for real. Their record will speak for them.

The same referee who overturned Calvin Johnson’s touchdown at the conclusion of the Lions-Bears game in Week 1 is once again at the center of controversy.

Or at least the rule he keeps having to make decisions about is.

During the fourth quarter of the Texans-Jaguars game on Sunday, Houston’s Kevin Walter caught a pass in the end zone, rolled over on his back, stuck the ball up and then it fell out of his hands.

The ruling on the field was an incomplete pass, but referee Gene Steratore reviewed the play and overturned the call, which gave Walter and the Texans a touchdown.

Following the game, Mike Pereira (the NFL’s former director officials) said the call was right.

“No question this should be a touchdown. The action where Walter lost the ball was clearly after he completed the catch, and he actually seemed to be showing the officials he had maintained control.”

“The referee, Gene Steratore, who was the referee in the Lions-Bears matchup in Week 1 for the controversial Calvin Johnson play at the end of the game, made the right call again. This time there was clearly a second act, which to me, is reminiscent of a second baseman losing the ball while taking the ball out of his glove in an attempt to turn a double play. So the Texans win this challenge, but ended up losing the game on a wild Hail Mary by the Jaguars on the last play of the game.”

Here’s the thing that continues to befuddle me about this end zone possession rule. If a running back dives into the end zone and the ball goes over one of the pylons it’s considered a touchdown, even if the ball gets dislodged from his hands at the end of the run. In essence, the play is a touchdown as soon as the tip of the ball crosses the goal line.

But when a receiver makes a catch, has two feet down (or his butt and an elbow in the case of Johnson’s touchdown in Chicago), he has to maintain the catch until next Wednesday. Why? I can see the differences between Walter and Johnson’s touchdowns, but it doesn’t change the fact that CJ had secured the catch, had two feet, his butt and his forearm on the ground. I get it – he didn’t maintain control throughout. But you can’t tell me that a running back can dive for the end zone, lose the ball and have it count for a touchdown when a catch like Johnson’s doesn’t count. The rule stinks.

Now, by rule, I guess you can say that the running back already had possession of the ball when he was diving for the end zone and that’s the difference between that play and a receiver making a catch when he’s already in the end zone. But that hardly seems fair, especially considering guys like Johnson had already secured the catch (not by rule mind you, but by common sense).

That said, I’m fine with the Walter ruling. It was a touchdown – just like Calvin Johnson’s was. (Again, not by rule, but by common sense.)

There’s only one man who should be calling a miracle Hail Mary touchdown at the end of a football game and that’s Gus Johnson.

“OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH MYYYYYYYYYYYY HE CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT! UNBELIEVABLE! HE CAUGHT IT!”

Nobody will ever blame that man for not bringing enough emotion and enthusiasm to his job.

Houston cornerback Glover Quin did nothing wrong on the final play of the Texans-Jaguars game on Sunday. With the game tied 24-24 and overtime almost a certainty as the Jaguars lined at midfield, David Garrard heaved a desperation pass to the end zone with no time on the clock. Quin leapt high into the air and batted the ball back towards the field, just as defensive backs are taught to do.

The only problem is that he batted it right into the waiting arms of Jacksonville receiver Mike Thomas, who secured the 50-yard touchdown and an unbelievable 31-24 victory for the Jaguars.

Had Quin intercepted the pass, the game would have gone to overtime. But how many times are defensive backs scolded for not doing exactly what he did, which is bat the ball forward? The play was, by the very definition of the rule, a fluke. (Not to mention the play of the year.)

Perhaps even more unlikely than the touchdown is the fact that Jacksonville is now only one game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South. Pretty remarkable considering that this is the same Jaguars team that looked completely helpless against the Titans three weeks ago on Monday Night Football.

On the flip side, the loss drops Houston to 4-5 and into last place in the division. They’ve lost three in a row and coach Gary Kubiak has no answers on how to fix the worst defense in the NFL.

“OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH MYYYYYYYYYYYY HE CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT! UNBELIEVABLE! HE CAUGHT IT!”

Thanks, Gus.

Down 14-3 with less than 20 seconds on the clock before halftime on Sunday, the Cowboys moved the ball to the Jaguars’ 1-yard line and faced a third-and-goal.

Punch the ball in and at 14-10, it’s a whole new game. Fail to convert and the misery that is the 2010 Cowboys’ season continues.

Naturally, the Cowboys settled for the latter.

On 3rd-and-1, Jon Kitna (who is only starting now because the Dallas’ O-line failed to pick up a blitzing Michael Boley last Monday night, which lead to Tony Romo being sidelined for the next 6-8 weeks) spun around and handed the ball off to Marion Barber, who was stuffed at the goal line. On 4th-and-1, Kitna ran into Barber at the exchange and once again, Barber was stuffed at the half-inch line.

Turnover on downs: Jacksonville football.

The two plays didn’t cost Dallas the game (a 35-17 Jaguar beatdown), but they personified what the 2010 season has become for the Cowboys. It’s not only that they fail to execute – they fail to execute because they mentally (and physically, apparently) get in their own way. They can’t block, they can’t tackle, they can’t run simple dive plays like the two Barber failed to score on. They’re just bad. They’re a bad football team.

Just because your starting quarterback is out, doesn’t mean you mail it in. Just because your starting quarterback is out, doesn’t mean you allow David Garrard to throw four touchdown passes and allow your opponent to treat your home field like it’s their own personal Mardi Gras celebration. It’s embarrassing. What the Cowboys did on Sunday was embarrassing.

But should anyone be surprised? This is what the season has come to for Dallas. Poor execution, dumb mistakes and ugly losses. But at this point, it is what it is. Wade Phillips isn’t going anywhere at the moment and Jerry Jones will just have to ride out the rest of the season before he can make wholesale changes.

Too bad he has to watch this monstrosity for another nine weeks.

Both starting quarterbacks in the Monday Night Football game were injured in the first half. Vince Young sprained his knee early in the first quarter, while David Garrard took a hit from a Tennessee pass rusher in the second quarter and went into the locker room just before half. (His injury is unknown at this point, but don’t rule out the possibility that he took himself out because he’s God awful.)

The good thing for Tennessee is that Kerry Collins is Young’s backup. He hit Bo Scaife on a 2-yard touchdown pass midway through the second quarter and then orchestrated another scoring drive that netted the Titans a field goal. Tennessee currently lead 17-0 at half.

Unfortunately for Jacksonville, their backup is not Kerry Collins but Trent Edwards, who was signed three weeks ago after Buffalo dumped him following two brutal starts at the beginning of the season. He came in and took the Jaguars right down the field, but then Mercedes Lewis crapped on the drive by fumbling inside the red zone. Tennessee recovered the loose ball and held Jacksonville scoreless in the first half.

Edwards looked great on his lone drive, but soon enough he’ll remember he’s Trent Edwards and start checking down every chance he gets. Of course, he’s probably a better option than Garrard at this point, so even if Garrard is healthy to start the second half, Jack Del Rio might as well leave Edwards in.

Update: ESPN will think twice about putting the Jaguars on Monday Night Football again after their performance tonight. Thanks to Collins and a dominating performance by their defense, the Titans rolled Jacksonville, 30-3. Maurice Jones-Drew never got going for the Jags and Edwards was picked off on the first possession of the second half.

Reports say that Garrard suffered a concussion in the first half, which is why he never returned.

We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and there are lots of wacky things happening. The Chiefs are 3-0 and the only undefeated team. That’s a far cry from last year, when the Colts and Saints were unbeaten almost all the way to the end of the 2009 campaign. There are also some interesting candidates emerging for MVP consideration, as well as for Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year. And like last year, we’ll start to analyze them in power rankings fashion. For this week and maybe the next few, we’ll put this in one post and give three names for each category. Around the halfway point of the season, more candidates will emerge so we will separate things out. Sound good? Right. Let’s go……..

MVP Power Rankings

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Do we even have to spell this out? He steps in for Kevin Kolb in Week 1 and almost leads the Eagles to victory against the Packers. Then he wins against Detroit and Jacksonville before having his ribs crushed on a meaningless play vs. Washington last Sunday, knocking him out of the game early. Kolb comes back in, and the Eagles lose. Vick is averaging 200 yards passing per game, has 6 TDs and no interceptions, and is also averaging 7.2 yards per rush on 26 carries and one TD on the ground. He has a QB rating of 108.8 while Kolb’s is 71.1. Simply put, this team is dangerous with Vick, and not scaring anyone without him. That’s the very definition of MVP.

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The NFL – ha! It’s so predictable.

Well of course the Jaguars were going to upset the Colts today. Why wouldn’t they? They were only coming off back-to-back losses in which their opponents outscored them by a combined 66-16 and posses the 29th worst pass defense in the league. Peyton Manning didn’t have a chance!

And of course you knew that Josh Scobee would nail a 59-yarder right down the middle to win the game. That was easy to call.

Seriously, what a freaking kick by Scobee. I’m sure both sidelines were saying, “All right, after this fool dribbles one to about the 7-yard line, we’ll head into overtime and see if we can’t get this thing done.”…Or Scobee will nail it and give the Jaguars an improbable 31-28 victory.

The NFL – so predictable.

Let’s give it up for David Garrard for a second. For the past two weeks, the guy has played like Joey Harrington on his worst day and he came out on Sunday and completed 17-of-22 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts’ pass defense played passive aggressive the entire day and Garrard made them pay. He may revisit the Harrington style next week, but for one day he was solid.

As for the Colts, they were just outplayed. They allowed Maurice Jones-Drew and company to rack up 174 rushing yards and also committed two turnovers offensively. The Jaguars had to play a near-perfect game to win and that’s exactly what they did.

As I wrote earlier in my predictions for this week, the Jags always seem to give the Colts trouble and that’s exactly what happened again today. Nice win.