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Oregon is USC’s title game, and other Week 9 college football picks

Oct 16, 2010; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) conducts teh band after the game against the California Golden Bears at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC defeated California 48-14. Photo via Newscom

With the prospect of a bowl game or a Pac-10 championship taken away from it before the season even began, USC’s football program has had to look elsewhere for motivation.

After a lackluster showing in early-season matchups against Hawaii, Virginia and Minnesota, and a loss at home to Washington, many wondered if the Trojans really even cared. A last-second loss at Stanford and a blowout of California, however, has shown that not only do the Trojans care, but they’re still a pretty darn good football team.

There was attrition at the school this offseason when the NCAA instituted a two-year bowl ban and a reduction in scholarships, but it’s still USC. It’s still the same team that has been bringing in top five recruiting classes year after year, and putting more five stars on the bench than many teams have seeing the field.

So now nobody’s thinking of the Trojans, as they cannot be a part of the title discussion themselves. They can severely alter the landscape today, though, and I’d imagine they’ll be real excited to try and take advantage of that opportunity. Read the rest of this entry »

Big 12, Big Ten and SEC races should become more clear today

University of Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones drops back to pass against the University of Texas in the first half of their NCAA Big 12 football game played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas, October 2, 2010.  REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

My wife essentially makes the schedule in our house. My job is to make sure I stay gainfully employed and just show up to the things she’s set up for us. It’s normally pretty easy and painless, to be honest. And since I’m a scatter-brain most of the time, I completely relinquish the scheduling.

But she messed up this weekend. Big time. We’re signed up for a wine tasting at 6 p.m. (EDT) today, which will be smack dab in the middle of some of the best college football finishes of the day. It also means I’ll be out of commission after 6 p.m. (never drink and blog kids, it never ends up well), so expect heavier blogging early in the day, and not much later. I’ll let you decide if that’s good or bad.

After the jump, I’ll dissect some of the great matchups of the day (there a couple of huge ones), and introduce a couple of new features for this morning forecast post. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Rich Rodriguez survive past this season at Michigan?

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 11: Head coach Rich Rodriguez of the Michigan Wolverines yells at an assistant coach during a game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium on September 11, 2010 in South Bend, Indiana. Michigan defeated Notre Dame 28-24. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

There’s no shame in losing to Iowa, even at home. I just want to get that out of the way right now.

There is shame, however, in winning four Big Ten games (two against Indiana) in a little more than two seasons. That’s what Rich Rodriguez and Michigan are looking at right now. Needless to say, that’s not sitting well with Michigan fans.

And it shouldn’t. Rodriguez is in his third year at Michigan, and the same problems keep coming up. He has an offense that’s explosive, but prone to turnovers and breakdowns against good teams. A big part of that is the fact he’s had a first-year starter in each of his three years. As good as Denard Robinson has been this year, I think people forget that he’s a sophomore who didn’t start until Week 1 against UConn.

The real problem, however, is the defense. Oh, the defense. Part of it’s scheme, as Michigan has recruited for, and dedicated itself to the 3-3-5. I don’t think that defense is built for the Big Ten, which features mostly teams that want to run the ball down your throat and hit you with play-action passing. But even more than that is the general lack of talent and fundamentals on the field. Sure, injuries have hurt, especially in the secondary, but that shouldn’t excuse a linebacker’s inability to tackle someone.

Today’s loss to Iowa dropped Michigan to 5-2 on the year, which isn’t bad, especially considering who the losses came to. But unless something changes quickly, the losses are going to continue to pile up. I have a hard time seeing the Wolverines beating Ohio State (which would put Rodriguez at 0-6 against the Buckeyes and Michigan State, his two biggest rivals), which is three losses. Wisconsin at home is winnable, but would you put your money on the Wolverines? How about against an improved Illinois team? Or even at Purdue, which seems to have found new life lately?

Michigan could realistically be looking at 7-5, or even 6-6. There’s no way Rodriguez survives that. The Michigan fanbase would have Dave Brandon’s head on a silver platter if he did.

At 8-4, I think there’s a clear improvement, but with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State at the end of the year, would there be a bad enough taste in Michigan’s mouth to go elsewhere?

A couple things need to be looked at here, though, before Michigan thinks of pulling the plug. For one, Rodriguez has recruited specifically for his style, especially on offense, and if the Wolverines brought in a pro-style coach, you would expect at least one more transition year. Second, the man Michigan covets more than anyone is Jim Harbaugh. Would he be receptive to leaving Stanford for his alma mater? Would he go elsewhere if Michigan isn’t hiring this offseason? Let’s not get into the meltdown that could occur if Michigan fires Rodriguez and Harbaugh says no.

Michigan has a bye week coming up, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Wolverines on the field. Off it, however, this will be the only topic of conversation for two weeks.

It doesn’t get any better than Saban vs. Meyer (and several other great games)

ATLANTA - DECEMBER 06:  Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide congratulates head coach Urban Meyer of the Florida Gators after the Gators 31-20 win in the SEC Championship on December 6, 2008 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Say what you want about Nick Saban and Urban Meyer (and believe me, there’s plenty to say about both of them), but they are very likely the two best coaches in college football right now.

The duo has combined for four national titles since 2003, and it wouldn’t be that far fetched to say they’ll combine to win another four in the next eight seasons. Alabama and Florida are at the top of the college football heap, and will continue to be there as long as these two men are at the top.

Apparently, they could have been together, but Saban big-timed Meyer and didn’t return his call in 1990. In Saban’s defense, 1990 was before caller ID (right?) and maybe his wife lost the phone number, or took it down wrong. Or maybe Saban is a big-timer (this is probably more likely). Either way, Urban seems to have forgiven him. Probably because he’s done well enough for himself since then.

Their teams play each other today, in what’s probably the game of the day when you consider everything (records, rankings, history, etc.). Click ahead to see who wins that one and more. Read the rest of this entry »

Stoops, Arizona look for big-time program win

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 05:  Coach Mike Stoops of the Arizona Wildcats celebrates with cornerback Mike Turner #2 after beating the USC Trojans 21-17 in the NCAA college football game at the Los Angeles Coliseum on December 5, 2009 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Under the direction of Mike Stoops, Arizona has won some very big games. The Wildcats knocked off a top 10 team three years in a row from 2005-07, with UCLA, California and Oregon all being their victims. This past year, Arizona even knocked off the Pac 10′s Goliath in USC.

But those wins all came late in the season, when Arizona had already piled up a handful of losses. One thing the Wildcats — who seem to perennially be thought of as a sleeper team — have not done, is capitalize on any preseason hype with a big-time early-season win.

They have the chance to do that tonight, though, when they play host to No. 9 Iowa. A win moves the Wildcats to 3-0 and gives them some serious national respect. It would also be a huge victory for the Pac 10, which is trying to assert itself as a top conference, even with a lethargic, and penalized, USC.

Can Stoops and Arizona pull it off? Click through for that prediction, and more from today’s games. Read the rest of this entry »

2010 Big Ten College Football Preview: Ohio State back on top

COLUMBUS, OH - SEPTEMBER 26: Quarterback Terrelle Pryor #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes hands off to running back Brandon Saine #3 of the Buckeyes during a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio Stadium on September 26, 2009 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Here’s a quick and dirty look at how I see things playing out in the Big Eleven this season:

#1 Ohio State
Some believe the Buckeyes’ offense might be close to catching up to their defense in terms of dominance, which is saying something with the way OSU’s D played a year ago. The Buckeyes return all three leading rushers from 2009 in Brandon Saine, Dan Herron and quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who some believe has become a more committed teammate over the offseason. The key to OSU becoming a national title threat is Pryor, or more specifically, whether or not he’ll make opponents respect his passing game. The good thing for him and the Buckeyes on a whole is that they return four starters to a veteran offensive line that will open up plenty of holes for a deep and talented group of running backs. Defensively, OSU was a top five unit last season and could be once again this year assuming they can generate a pass-rush and the safeties can hold up in coverage. Cameron Heyward is one of the nation’s best defensive ends and Ross Homan is a playmaker at the outside linebacker spot. The secondary isn’t flashy, but cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence are solid. From a schedule standpoint, if they can beat Miami in Columbus in the second week of the season, they should be 6-0 heading into Madison on October 16. From there, they’ll be tested by Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa, but this is your clear favorite to win the Big Ten.

Read the rest of this entry »

College Football Program Power Rankings

Welcome to a new feature on The Scores Report. We thought it would be interesting to tally up all the major accomplishments of a college football program and assign a point value to each category in order to rank them against one another. Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the points are calculated — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million — Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program upgraded or downgraded its head coach in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Florida Gators (61)

National Championship: ’08-W, ’06-W
BCS Bowl: ’09-W
Conference Championship: ’09-RU, ’08-W, ’06-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ’07, ’05

It’s hard to argue that the Gators don’t deserve the top spot with two national championship victories, three BCS bowl wins, two conference championships and five bowl appearances in the past five years. Considering they play in college football’s toughest conference, what Urban Meyer’s program has been able to accomplish in the past five years has been incredibly impressive. The program dodged a bullet when Meyer rejoined the team.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (58)

National Championship: ’07-L, ’06-RU
BCS Bowl: ’09-W, ’08-L, ’05-W
Conference Championship: ’09-W, ’08-RU, ’07-W, ’06-W, ’05-RU

The Buckeyes are subjected to criticism every year because they play in a weak conference that doesn’t have a title game, but keep in mind that they have absolutely owned the Big Ten over the past five years. They have finished no worse than second in each of the past five seasons and have also appeared in two title games. While it’s true they lost in both of those appearances, just getting there helped them greatly in these rankings.

3. Texas Longhorns (49)

National Championship: ’09-L, ’05-W
BCS Bowl: ’08-W,
Conference Championship: ’09-W, ’05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ’07, ’06

The Longhorns have been a model of consistency. They’ve made a bowl appearance in each of the last five years, won a national championship in 2005 and made a title appearance this past last year. It’ll be interesting to see how Mack Brown’s program fares in 2010 now that Colt McCoy has graduated and youngster Garrett Gilbert is set to take over at quarterback.

Read the rest of this entry »

Staples: Alabama, Boise top early teams for 2010

Andy Staples of SI.com put together his 2010 Top 25 in college football, with Alabama and Boise State ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

Here is his top 5:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
It’s no coincidence that after linebacker Rolando McClain announced his decision to skip his senior year and enter the draft, rising junior Donta’ Hightower was brought before the media. That baton pass should go smoothly, and if you watched the BCS title game, you already know rising junior Marcell Dareus can take over a game. On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide only return a national-title winning quarterback (Greg McElroy), a Heisman Trophy-winning tailback (Mark Ingram) and the back a lot of people think is better than the Heisman winner (Trent Richardson).

2. Boise State Broncos
It’s time to stop doubting the Broncos. I ripped on their schedule plenty last season, but all they do when they get on the big stage is win. It’s easy to say they wouldn’t go undefeated in a better conference, but when Boise State has played teams from better conferences in the past few years, the Broncos have won. So to all the teams that think Boise State shouldn’t be ranked this high, you have one way to prove it: beat the Broncos.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Now that the Buckeyes have cast the BCS bowl gorilla from their backs, it’s time to work on Ohio State’s personal King Kong — the BCS title game. The Buckeyes have the talent. They have experience at key positions. Their only problem? The 2010 Big Ten will be deeper than it’s been in years.

4. Texas Longhorns
Rising sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert offered a glimpse of how good he can be in the BCS title game. The Longhorns’ defense loses end Sergio Kindle, but this is Texas. Kindle’s exit only means rising sophomore Alex Okafor has a chance to become a household name.

5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Defensive tackle Adrian Clayborn said he would be back next season, but that was before he owned Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. If he can fend off agents the way he fends off blockers, he’ll be the anchor of a stacked team playing a schedule that brings Penn State and Ohio State to Iowa City.

If Ohio State can take what they did against Oregon in the Rose Bowl and build upon it for next year, there’s a good chance we’ll be seeing the Buckeyes in the national title game.

It’s a little early to be making predictions, but it’s fun to look ahead. I remember last year how everyone thought Ole Miss was going to make some noise in the SEC and the Rebels failed to deliver on that.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Maybe the Big Ten isn’t so bad

Coming into the bowl season, the general consensus among college football fans was that the Big Ten couldn’t hang with the speed and athleticism that the SEC and Pac-10 brought to the table.

And who could blame them based on the results of previous bowl games?

But this season has been different. Ohio State shut down Oregon’s explosive offense in the Rose Bowl, Penn State went toe-to-toe with a physical LSU squad in the Capital One Bowl, Wisconsin dismantled Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl and Iowa shocked many people by dominating Georgia Tech in its 24-14 win in last night’s Orange Bowl.

Even in defeat, the Big Ten had a great showing this year, as Northwestern lost a wild, back-and-forth overtime affair to Auburn in the Outback Bowl and a heavily depleted Michigan State program gave Texas Tech all it could handle in the Alamo Bowl (which was essentially a home game for Tech) before losing at the very end.

Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa showed the strength of the conference in their wins: Physical play. Both the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes proved how good their front sevens were by shutting down offensive attacks that otherwise appeared unstoppable. The great equalizer in sports is when one team has the ability to generate pressure using just its front four, which is exactly what the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes did in their victories.

On the other side of the ball, OSU and Iowa were able to grind out the clock by using their big offensive lines to wear opponents down late in the fourth quarter. The Pac-10 might have loads of speed, but they’re at a disadvantage against the Big Ten late in games when they’re behind because their front sevens are relatively small. They’re just not built to line up and go mano a mano late in games.

What Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State were able to accomplish this bowl season doesn’t erase the years of futility that the conference has endured. But maybe the Big Ten can build off their programs’ success this season and use it as a stepping-stone for years to come.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

2010 BCS Bowl Preview: 5 Things to Watch for in the Orange Bowl

No. 1 in the ACC will take on No. 2 in the Big Ten when No. 9 Georgia Tech battles No. 10 Iowa in the Orange Bowl on January 5. As part of our 2010 BCS Bowl Preview, here are five things to watch for in the 2010 Orange Bowl.

1. GA Tech’s spread option attack vs. Iowa’s stiff run defense
Thanks to a three-headed monster in Jonathan Dwyer, Josh Nesbitt and Anthony Allen, the Yellow Jackets had the second best rushing attack in the nation this season. They averaged 307.15 yards per game, 35.31 points per game and 442.69 total yards of offense per game. There was only one time this season where Tech didn’t rush for over 200 yards on the ground, which came in a 33-17 loss to Miami in mid September. There’s no doubt Iowa has watched countless film on how the Hurricanes attacked the Jackets’ triple-option, remarkably holding them to just 97 yards on the ground. The Hawkeyes rank 11th in the nation in total defense and eighth in pass defense, but it’ll be their run defense (ranked 33rd in the country) that will be tested in the Orange Bowl. Miami succeed because it had the athletes in the front seven to penetrate the gaps and consistently wreck havoc in Tech’s backfield. Led by linebackers Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, the Hawkeyes have the tools to slow down Tech’s rushing attack. But will they execute come January 5?

2. Does Iowa have any late season magic?
Even though they would have rather won in less dramatic fashion, the Hawkeyes were kings of the comeback early in the season. They needed two blocked field goals to beat Northern Iowa in Week 1, a 16-point forth quarter to beat Penn State on the road, an interception in the final minutes to defeat Michigan at home, a come-from-behind second half win over Wisconsin and a last-second, fourth-down miracle to beat Michigan State in East Lansing. While some may point out that Iowa had a little luck running through its veins this season, there’s no doubt the Hawkeyes had some magic sprinkled in there too. It wasn’t until quarterback Ricky Stanzi got knocked out of a game against Northwestern in early November that things started to go wrong. Back to back losses against Northwestern and Ohio State knocked Iowa out of national title contention, but a 12-0 win over Minnesota in their final game of the season helped the Hawkeyes reach a BCS bowl. Did they save any magic for Georgia Tech?

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