Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Earlier this week the Broncos said that they’re not going to change their offense with Tim Tebow taking over at quarterback. Then on Sunday, they kept their game plan ultra-conservative and hardly called any screen passes or high-percentage throws to help build his confidence while being dominated for 56 minutes by a winless Miami team. Do they want the kid to fail? Are they trying to prove that they were right by not starting him over Kyle Orton? Are they trying to stick it to all of the fans that have basically begged the organization to play Tebow? Either way, I absolutely love what the former Gator did today. Despite his coaching staff’s unwillingness to put him in position to succeed, he found a way to pull off a miraculous victory with some help from his defense and kicker Matt Prater. It wasn’t hard to figure that he would score a couple of touchdowns and compile over 200 total yards. But the way he did it was marvelous. The Broncos did nothing until four minutes left in the fourth, when he basically willed them to victory. He’s too nice of a guy to say it, but that had to feel good to stick it up his critics’ asses for just one week.

- While Denver refused to change its offense in efforts to help Tebow, Minnesota did a nice job of using designed roll-outs and plays that maximized rookie Christian Ponder’s strengths at quarterback. The rookie will be seeing Charles Woodson (2 INTs) in his nightmares for a while, but he showed a lot of grit bouncing back in the fourth quarter to nearly lead the Vikings to an upset over the still-undefeated Packers. Ponder is clearly an upgrade over Donovan McNabb and his performance today was definitely something to build on. Green Bay’s defense has struggled all year but for Ponder to have Minnesota in position to win in the fourth quarter was something not a lot of people expected.

- Anyone who watched DeMarco Murray play at Oklahoma knew he was a versatile player with a bright future. He did everything for the Sooners in his time at OU and the Cowboys really got a steal last April when they selected him with the 71st overall pick in the third-round. Nobody envisioned him rushing for 253 yards (a Dallas single-game record) in one game, but it was only a matter of time before Murray turned heads. Granted, 91 of those yards came on one play and he did face a pathetic St. Louis run defense. But given all the issues the Cowboys have had at running back over the years, his feat today had to be refreshing for Jerry Jones and Co. Here’s hoping the 23-year-old back can avoid injuries and build off of this incredible performance.

- I made it clear in my predictions this week that I liked the Chiefs to at least cover the 3.5-point spread in Oakland. But 28-0 with two 50-yard pick-sixes? Yeah, no – didn’t see that coming. Suddenly Kansas City is only a game back of San Diego and Oakland in the win column. That’s quite a contrast to where the Chiefs were a month ago, when head coach Todd Haley was nearly fired for the team’s ugly 0-3 start.

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Peyton Manning is obviously a great quarterback, but should the Indianapolis Colts just fall apart now that he’s out for potentially the entire season?

I have no sympathy for the Colts, as they’ve avoided developing a real backup for Peyton Manning for years. We all watched several years ago when they rested Manning and played Jim Sorgi. Contrast that to New England and the emphasis they place on backup quarterbacks. When Tom Brady got hurt, they had Matt Cassel ready to go. Now they’re at it again with Ryan Mallett on the bench. Wouldn’t the Colts love to have Mallett now?

I don’t blame Kerry Collins. He had a tough time today in Indy’s loss at home against the Browns, but he came out of retirement to take on this complicated offense. I blame the Colts brain trust, and they’re paying the price now for their lack of preparation.

Not a great start last week but not bad either. I hit the Eagles and Bengals but the Colts never arrived in Houston and the Titans fell short in Jacksonville. I’ll try harder today…

Cardinals @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton was incredible in his debut but Arizona’s defense was sofffffft. Now the Cardinals have to hop a flight cross-country to play a Redskins team that didn’t have to move after playing at home last week. While the situation is built like a house of cards, Rex Grossman played well last Sunday against the Giants and I think he’ll carry that confidence into today. The Cardinals are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. The Redskins, meanwhile, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus the NFC.
THE PICK: REDSKINS –4

Browns @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
Apparently I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m right back on the Colts this week after their brutal performance in Week 1. It just doesn’t sit right with me that Indy is a 1-point home underdog against a Browns team that got drubbed by the Bengals at home last Sunday. Kerry Collins looked like crap-o-la in Houston but he should have an easier time this Sunday against Cleveland. The underdog is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the Browns are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus the AFC.
THE PICK: COLTS +1

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Hey, I’m guilty of it. We’re all guilty of it. We see a player get seriously injured and one of the first statements out of someone’s mouth is, “This may be career-threatening.”

The latest example of this is Peyton Manning. He recently had his second neck surgery in less than five months and at least one clown in the media wrote last week about how the Colts may wind up with Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. We live in a world where present news is old news and everyone has a blog nowadays so getting a jump on a story often takes precedence. But the media (and fans too, because they’re just as guilty even though the media provides a nice patsy for them) could learn a thing or two about Manning’s situation from Tom Brady.

As I watched Brady carve up the Dolphins for 517 yards and four touchdowns on Monday night, I had to laugh thinking about Matt Cassel’s 2008 season. He was so good that year that some wondered if the Pats should trade Brady and go with the younger Cassel at quarterback.

The idea wasn’t that far-fetched either. At the time, there was no timetable set for Brady’s return after he had season-ending knee surgery earlier in the year. Nobody knew when he would return in ’09, or if he would return at all. Cassel was also set to become a free agent, which further complicated the situation. If the Pats traded him or allowed him to leave via free agency, they risked not having an experienced quarterback for 2009 if Brady couldn’t recover.

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In 1997, David Robinson suffered a broken foot in preseason and wind up missing the entire regular season for the San Antonio Spurs, who were devastated by the injury. But Robinson’s misfortunate actually turned out to be a massive blessing in disguise for he and the Spurs.

San Antonio was so bad that season that they wound up having the No. 1 pick in the 1997 NBA Draft, allowing them to select Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest. Four championships, two MVP awards, and 13 All-Star selections later and Duncan is viewed as one of the greatest players to have ever donned a NBA uniform.

And none of it would have happened had Robinson not broke his foot that year, which is a little morbid when you think about it but hey, it worked out for everyone in the end. (Robinson won two titles playing alongside Duncan.)

If the Indianapolis Colts wind up having a wretched season due to Peyton Manning’s neck injury, they may find themselves in a somewhat similar situation. Granted, it’s too early to tell how long Manning will be sidelined after having his second neck surgery in less than four months. Maybe he’ll return halfway through the season and lead the Colts to the playoffs once again. Or maybe he’ll be out all season and will return next year at full strength.

Or maybe he’ll never play again.

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After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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Rumors have been flying around Twitter that Peyton Manning would need more surgery, so the Indianapolis Colts have issued a statement about Manning’s recovery process. Bottom line is that he’ll likely miss the first game as he has suffered some complications and they will be holding him out of practice this week as they try to figure out what is slowing down his recovery.

It’s now or never for the Houston Texans. Either they win the AFC South this season or spend the rest of their miserable existence in NFL purgatory.

All right, so that was a little extreme. But you’d have to be a corpse not to feel the sense of urgency that is surrounding the Texans as we draw closer to the 2011 regular season.

Peyton Manning’s neck injury has cast a cloud of doubt around the Colts. Tony Dungy was probably right when he recently said that unless Manning is dead, he won’t miss Week 1. But even if he does suit up, Manning, or Mr. Preparation as his poker buddies call him, hasn’t done much prepping for the 2011 season. How effective will he be early on? Will this be an injury that nags him the entire season? Will he be Peyton Manning? Because if he isn’t, then it’s fair to say that the Colts are a rather average team.

Nevermind that though; the Texans can’t be worried about what Manning and the Colts are doing. They need to focus on themselves because their moment to shine is here. Besides re-signing running back Arian Foster and tight end Owen Daniels to keep their explosive offense intact, the biggest move Houston made this offseason was hiring Wade Phillips to be its new defensive coordinator. Say what you will about Phillips’ inability to be a head coach, but the man knows how to run a defense. And he knows something about quick turnarounds, too.

The last seven times that Phillips has taken over as a head coach or defensive coordinator, his new team has reached the playoffs in its first season. And only once in those seven years has Phillips taken over a club that was coming off a winning record, which is a testament to the impact he can have on new teams. That’s a good sign for Houston, which finished 6-10 last year largely because of a defense that finished third to last in yards allowed and fourth to last in points per game.

The Texans also signed a key piece this offseason to help Phillips turn around the team’s defensive misfortunes. While they heavily pursued corner Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, the Texans did well to land the second-best DB on the market in Jonathan Joseph. Still in his prime at 27, Joseph flashed shutdown corner ability in Cincinnati and should dramatically improve the league’s worst secondary from a year ago.

Of course, the defense wasn’t the only problem last year. The Texans have been a team that has struggled against divisional opponents the last two years. After going 1-5 in 2009, the Texans did finish 3-3 against the AFC South last season, but 3-3 usually doesn’t win divisional crowns. In fact, the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs have been the only team in the last four years to win their division despite having a losing record, which shines light on how important it is that the Texans take care of business against Indy, Jacksonville and Tennessee this year.

I joked earlier about this season being a “now or never” opportunity for the Texans to win the AFC South. Unless owner Bob McNair abruptly folds the franchise after this year, the Texans may be favored to win in 2012 or beyond. That said, when are the Texans going to have a better opportunity than now? Phillips was the right man for the defensive job, Manning’s injury leaves a lot of uncertainty in Indy, and Jacksonville and Tennessee are largely devoid of talent.

Now or never? Not quite. But then again it might as well be.

One of the most successful offensive coordinators over the last decade has decided to officially hang ‘em up.

Colts owner Jim Irsay confirmed on Wednesday that former longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore has retired from football. Irsay is leaving the door open in case Moore changes his mind again, but it appears as though he’ll finally walk away. (Moore decided to retire back in 2009 as well but had a change of heart.)

Moore became the Colts offensive coordinator the same year that Peyton Manning broke into the league in 1998. And thanks to the pair only once did the Colts finish worse than ninth in the league in total offense between the years of 1999 and 2010. While Manning grabs all the headlines, Moore’s work behind the scenes simply cannot be overlooked. He held guide the Colts to a Super Bowl victory in 2006 and nearly did so again in 2009 when Indy fell to the Saints.

What does this mean for the Colts? Probably not much in the grand scheme of things. It’s still Manning’s show and the team loves to hire from within (see head coach Jim Caldwell), so Indy’s offense shouldn’t be affected too much. Still, this isn’t the best time for any team to be losing a piece of their coaching staff with the lockout threatening to wipe out an entire summer’s worth of workouts.

After hauling in a whopping one catch for one yard in the Colts’ 17-16 loss to the Jets on Saturday night, receiver Reggie Wayne vented to the Indianapolis Star about his role in the game.

“It’s bull. It’s bull, man,” the five-time Pro Bowl receiver said after being a non-factor in the Indianapolis Colts’ 17-16 loss to the New York Jets in Saturday night’s AFC wild-card playoff game at Lucas Oil Stadium.

“I give everything I’ve got no matter what. Every day, I give it everything. And . . . one ball, that’s all.”

“I shouldn’t have even suited up,” Wayne said. “I should have watched the game like everybody else. I was irrelevant.”

Like all great competitors, Wayne should be frustrated about only being targeted once in the biggest game of the year. Give credit to Darrelle Revis for shutting him down, but one would think Peyton Manning would have looked his way more than once.

Of course, it was a combination of factors that kept Wayne in check. The biggest reason was Revis’ performance. But Manning should have given his top target more looks in the passing game and Wayne himself could have outperformed Revis to garner more looks from his QB. I’m not saying he doesn’t work hard because he does. But there had to be a reason why Manning only targeted him once.

Chances are, Wayne’s comments will be water under the bridge by the time the Colts take the field again. But what’s interesting is that Wayne made a play for a contract extension last season, even though he’s signed through 2012. Will his frustrations boil over into the offseason?