I get it – baseball trades are fun. They’re fun to speculate about, they’re fun to debate and they’re fun to analyze. But just because a club needs a bat, an arm or is just looking to shrink salary, doesn’t mean that a trade needs to happen.

I’ve compiled a list of five trade rumors and where they originated. I then discuss why each of them makes sense, but why they also don’t necessarily need to happen.

Rumor #1: The Red Sox will trade for Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Why it makes sense: Boston is growing impatient waiting for Jed Lowrie to recover from a wrist injury that has held him out since mid-April. They’re also tired of watching Julio Lugo (who is equally bad offensively as he is defensively) make a mockery of the game whenever he trots onto the field. While Nick Green has done well filling in for Lowrie while he’s been hurt and for Lugo while he continues to work on being the most overpaid player in professional sports, the Sox feel they could do better with Wilson. (There’s also a rumor making the rounds that Boston wouldn’t have to give up any top prospects in order to acquire Wilson – they just would need to take on the rest of his salary.)
Why it doesn’t need to happen: Wilson is excellent defensively, but he brings very little to the table in terms of offense. He’s also overpaid himself, as he’ll make $7.25 million this year and $8.4 million in 2010 despite being limited at the dish. While waiting for Lowrie to return to the field has been a slow death for the Sox, he’s cheaper than Wilson and gives the team a better overall player at the position (when he’s healthy, of course). Plus, Green has played well and Boston might be better served holding onto prospects in order to make a more productive move around the trade deadline (i.e. adding another bat in case David Oritz plans on hitting south of .200 all season) than one involving Wilson.

Rumor #2: The Giants will trade for Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla (Sun-Sentinel)
Why it makes sense: The Giants are playing better than most expected this season, but they’re doing it all with pitching. They’ve surrendered the fewest runs this year (233), but have scored the third fewest (248) themselves. San Fran might not be able to catch the streaking Dodgers in the NL West (as of this writing, the Giants are seven games back of L.A. in the division despite being six games above .500), but if they continue to play well, the Wild Card is certainly attainable. But they need offense – badly. While Uggla’s batting average has been atrocious all season, he does have 11 home runs and 40 RBI so the thought is that he could add much-needed pop to the Giants’ lineup.
Why it doesn’t need to happen: Yes, the Giants do need offense. But don’t forget that they play in a pitcher’s park so even if they did acquire Uggla, who knows how his power would translate to AT&T Park. And his average is death so if he’s not going to hit home runs, he’s not worth acquiring (and don’t forget that his defense is brutal, too). The Giants’ current starting second baseman is Emmanuel Burriss, who has zero pop and has struggled at the plate despite tearing it up in the spring, but he has an outstanding glove and he’s young. It’s rumored that the Marlins would be looking for young pitching in exchange for Uggla, but it’s not worth it for the Giants to give up a young arm like Jonathan Sanchez (even though he’s struggling) to acquire Uggla while there are still options within the organization (and I don’t necessarily mean Burriss, who has been brutal, but Kevin Frandsen, who has been absolutely hosed by the organization this season). Plus, the Giants aren’t one bat away from making a deep postseason run – they’re two or three bats away. Acquiring Uggla isn’t going to change that. The Giants have also been linked to players like Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko and I would say the same thing about them as I do about Uggla – those players aren’t worth giving up young arms with the Giants still a year or two away from seriously competing. Unless they could get a young bat in a deal, San Fran GM Brian Sabean should stand pat and continue his rebuilding plan.

Rumor #3: The Cardinals will trade for Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
Why it makes sense: Manager Tony La Russa desperately wants to add another bat to the lineup to help protect Albert Pujols and upgrading the left side of the infield while Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene continue to miss time is a necessity as well. Tejada would cover both needs as he’s hitting .344 with six home runs and some feel as though he can play third base if needed, although he has never actually played there before.
Why it doesn’t need to happen: First and foremost, there’s no guarantee that the Astros would want to trade within their own division. Plus, despite currently being three games under .500 and in last place, Houston is only four games back of the Brewers in the NL Central, so they’ll hang onto Tejada if they feel as though they have a shot at the playoffs (however slim those hopes may be). But looking at this from the Cardinals’ perspective, acquiring Tejada doesn’t make as much sense as going after someone like Cleveland’s Mark DeRosa, who is also rumored to be available. Tejada will earn $13 million in 2009 and is set to become a free agent in 2010. Chances are, St. Louis wouldn’t re-sign Tejada in the offseason and they’d probably have to pay Houston a premium because it would be a trade down within the division. Throw in the fact that Tejada isn’t that great of a defensive player and adding him makes little sense. A guy like DeRosa would still give the Cards a quality bat, a better defender who has actually spent time at third base, and cheaper player to boot.

Rumor #4: The Padres will trade Adrian Gonzalez (ESPN.com’s Buster Onley)
Why it makes sense: It doesn’t make sense unless you look at it from the view of the Padres’ front office, who wants to cut team salary significantly. (That’s why San Diego has been actively shopping Jake Peavy.)
Why it doesn’t need to happen: This is more of a notion than a rumor. As previously noted, the Padres want to cut salary but they’ve been unable to move Peavy, so speculation has it that they could wind up dealing Gonzo if the right trade comes along. But while cutting salary is important to the front office, GM Kevin Towers can’t just give up a young slugger like Gonzalez in a cost-cutting move. Obviously Towers would get a couple of prospects in exchange for Gonzo, but would he be willing to take a lesser deal just to free up some money? If so, that would be incredibly disappointing for a Padre fan base that has embraced Gonzalez and hopes that he’ll still be around when San Diego eventually is competitive again (whenever that might be).

Rumor #5: The Red Sox will trade Brad Penny (Boston Globe)
Why it makes sense: With John Smoltz set to come back soon from a rehab assignment, Penny will be expandable to the Red Sox, who have discussed moving him to the pen (despite his unwillingness) when Smoltz returns to the mound. Boston seemingly has an abundance of starting pitching and if they could get a couple of prospects or a position player of worth in exchange for Penny, why not move him?
Why it doesn’t need to happen: A lot has been made about Boston’s pitching depth, but things could go from good to ugly at the drop of a dime. Dice-K has been brutal and has already made one trip to the DL. Josh Beckett started off slow, recovered to pitch incredibly well over the last month but then was shelled yesterday in Philadelphia. Smoltz is set to return from his rehab assignment, but who knows how he’ll pitch once he faces major league batters again. So essentially yes, the Red Sox do have a ton of depth. But that could vanish in a heartbeat and while Penny has looked good in his last three starts, teams aren’t going to be willing to overpay for the 31-year old’s services – especially knowing that Boston has an abundance of arms. In the end, holding on to Penny for depth and in case of injuries to other starters might be worth it in the end. Of course, if some club offers a top prospect in exchange for Penny (which is doubtful), then all bets are off.

Some pitching statistics are not very complimentary, most of all the gopher ball line….that is, for pitchers who have a penchant for throwing that big fat pitch that a hitter tends to crush over the fence. Here is a list of the active pitchers who lead the majors in this category, and only includes players who are currently on a major league roster:

1. Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia Phillies (474)—Okay, so he’s been pitching since 1986 and throws mostly slow junk, but Moyer has given up double digits in gopher balls 16 times, including FORTY FOUR in 2004 while with Seattle, the fifth highest total for a single season in baseball history. And he is only 31 behind all-time leader Robin Roberts, who gave up 505 long balls. Way to go, Jamie.

2. Randy Johnson, San Francisco Giants (399)—We can pretty much give the Big Unit a pass, because he’s struck out 4,819 batters and is closing in on 300 wins.

3. Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (363)—All you can say is that sometimes the knuckleball is completely baffling, and sometimes it looks like a soccer ball to the hitter.

4. Tom Glavine, Atlanta Braves (356)—As good as Glavine is and has been throughout his illustrious career, he has always had the penchant for giving up the long ball.

5. Javier Vasquez, Atlanta Braves (304)—Since breaking into the big leagues in 1998, Vasquez has AVERAGED 29 homers given up per season…he’s been as low as 20, and as high as 35. Batter up!

6. Livan Hernandez, New York Mets (301)—I read recently where Livan’s pitches were clocking in the 62 mph range…..are you kidding me? Yet, he’s still getting hitters out with regularity.

6. Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers (301)—Jeff Suppan has always had decent control, averaging 68 walks per season since breaking in with the Red Sox in 1995. But he’s also given up an average of 27 homers per season. Sometimes control means you leave it out over the plate.

8. John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox (277)—Smoltz has only averaged 16 homers given up per season, including a few years as the Braves’ closer, but still—you pitch since 1988, your numbers are going to add up.

9. Bartolo Colon, Chicago White Sox (245)—In 2004, Bartolo won 18 games but gave up 38 homers. Somebody must have inspired or bribed him with cheeseburgers the next year when he went 21-8 and won the AL Cy Young.

10. Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees (235)—For all those years with the short porch in right field in the old Yankee Stadium, Pettitte gave up a career high 27 homers while pitching for the Astros in 2006.

Source: Baseball Reference

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (2.28)—You want to know why this guy comes in and shuts the door every time he’s brought in for a save? Look no further than this statistic. Mo has been the most dominant closer in the game for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down.

2. Pedro Martinez, free agent (2.91)—Sure, he’s not the same guy he was in Boston or even Montreal, but Pedro’s a gamer and it’s hard to believe he still isn’t on a major league roster right now.

3. Johan Santana, New York Mets (3.10)—You have to watch this guy work to fully appreciate his art of pitching. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but he locates all his pitches beautifully and his change-up sometimes makes batters swing out of their shoes. He’s like a lefty Greg Maddux.

4. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros (3.14)—At 31, Oswalt has a lot of career left, and he has one of the game’s best fastballs.

5. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (3.26)—Peavy was rumored to be traded to the Cubs about 12 times in this past off-season. If you close your eyes, you can someday picture him in Yankee pinstripes.

5. John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox (3.26)—One of the game’s good guys, and as a Mets’ fan, that is not easy for me to say. I’m just glad he’s now in the American League.

7. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (3.27)—At 30, Webb is another of the game’s bright young stars and he’ll be in contention for many more Cy Young Awards.

7. Randy Johnson, San Francisco Giants (3.27)—The Big Unit is 45 years old and creeping up on 300 wins. And yeah, he’s racked up an incredible 4801 strikeouts. But his 3.27 ERA over 22 seasons is just awesome.

9. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs (3.50)—Is it possible that Carlos Zambrano is only 28 years old? Yes, and he’s going to be dominant for quite some time.

10. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves (3.48)—He’s battled injuries, but when he’s on top of his game, Hudson is one of the best in the game. And he turned out to be the best among that awesome young trio in Oakland that included Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.

Source: Baseball Reference

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (1.0199)—Rivera has been the hammer in the Yankees’ bullpen for over a decade and still shows no signs of slowing down. At the age of 38 in 2008, Mo struck out 77 in 70 innings, and racked up 39 saves.

2. Pedro Martinez, free agent (1.0512)—True, Pedro is about a lifetime removed from his dominating days with the Red Sox, but dude can still pitch effectively and has no MLB team at the moment.

3. Johan Santana, New York Mets (1.1024)—Will Johan be the guy to lead the Mets to their first title in almost 25 years? He had a brilliant first season in New York but was hurt by lousy run support and an even lousier bullpen.

4. Curt Schilling, Boston Red Sox (1.1374)—It’s hard to believe Schilling is not done yet, because he hasn’t pitched in a real game in almost two years. But if and when he goes back out there, I’m still picking him for my fantasy team.

5. Randy Johnson, San Francisco Giants (1.1673)—The Big Unit is five wins shy of 300 for his career, and reaching 300 is something that seemed impossible when he had back surgery before last season. But dude is still a beast and still blowing the ball past hitters, and he’s in his mid-40’s.

6. John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox (1.1697)—It’s going to be strange seeing Smoltz in a Red Sox uniform, but as a diehard Mets’ fan, I couldn’t be happier about that.

7. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (1.1864)—When you think of the game’s top pitchers, do you think of this dude? Well, you should. Peavy has already racked up 1256 strikeouts and he’s only 27.

8. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros (1.1979)—Another amazing young pitcher, Oswalt is 31 years old and has a lifetime record of 129-64 for a usually-less-than-awesome Astros’ team. That’s just sick.

9. Ben Sheets, free agent (1.2010)—If he ever pitched a full season, Sheets would be a lock for the Hall of Fame by now. But you just never see an injury report without his name on it.

10. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (1.2076)—Playing north of the border, Halladay has won the AL Cy Young Award once and finished in the top 5 in voting three other times. How have the Yankees kept their paws off of this guy?

Source: Baseball Reference

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (1.0489)—Albert is a freak of nature, averaging 42 homers and 128 RBI with a .334 batting average in his first eight seasons in the big leagues. Last year, he battled early elbow problems and wound up winning the NL MVP. This guy is just money year in and year out, and he’s only 29.

2. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0044)—That sound you just heard was a combination of two things—a collective sigh of relief in La La land and the thud of millions of dollars landing in Manny’s bank account after finally signing a deal with the Dodgers this week. Like him or not, the Dodgers probably just bought a division title.

3. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies (1.0020)—I’m not accusing anyone of anything but it’s intriguing to me that Helton hit 49 homers in 2001, the same year Barry Bonds hit 73. And his numbers have been steadily declining ever since. I’m just sayin’, it sort of reeks of Brady Anderson.

4. Frank Thomas, Oakland Athletics (.9740)—The Big Hurt has averaged 36 homers, 119 RBI and batted .301 over nineteen seasons. Are you kidding me? Dude is a lock for the Hall of Fame.

5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros (.9730)—Berkman hasn’t matched his highs of 45 home runs and 136 RBI in 2006, but he always strikes fear in opposing pitchers.

6. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees (.9671)—It’s been a rough month for A-Rod, first with steroid allegations and now with a hip injury that will sideline him for several weeks. But dude is still king of the regular season in the batter’s box.

7. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox (.9663)—For almost 20 years, Jim Thome has been one of the best left-handed power hitters in the game. And his .279 career batting average isn’t exactly shabby either. Not great, but not shabby.

8. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels (.9634)—Check out these career averages—36 homers, 117 RBI and .323 batting average. How has Vlad only won one MVP award? Oh, I know—Montreal.

9. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves (.9554)—Chipper is about as steady as they come, and he seems to be getting better with age. It’s too bad that hardly anyone goes to that ballpark in Atlanta.

10. Jason Giambi, Oakland Athletics (.9421)—Yeah, okay, we know Giambi used banned substances to aid his performance. But dude is still a pretty good hitter even off the juice.

Source: Baseaball Reference

1. Ken Griffey Jr. (2521 games, 20 seasons)—He’s played for some great Mariners teams, but his Reds’ clubs the last decade or so were mostly awful. Junior had a shot with the White Sox last season after being traded, and didn’t make it. Can he play long enough for Seattle to become competitive again?

2. Frank Thomas (2322, 19)—Really, the Big Hurt has never sniffed a World Series? Well yeah, he was with the White Sox for 16 years and the team won it all in 2005, his last season with the team. But that October, Thomas was injured and left off the postseason roster, and then signed with Oakland in 2006.

3. Alex Rodriguez (2042, 15)—Does anyone else think it’s not coincidental that A-Rod has never reached the Fall Classic? Dude is a world-beater in the regular season but never seems to match or exceed his capability in the postseason.

4. Carlos Delgado (2009, 16)—Delgado began his career in Toronto right after the Jays won two World Series titles, and while he’s been close with the Mets a few times, he’s still looking for that “brass” ring.

5. Ray Durham (1975, 14)—Ray Durham has been a steady player, but all those years with the Giants (after they were NL champs in 2002) didn’t help his chances to reach the big stage. A late-season trade to Milwaukee in 2008 got him close, but the Brewers lost to Philly in the NLDS.

6. Jason Kendall (1833, 13)—Nine seasons in Pittsburgh says all that there needs to be said.

7. Bobby Abreu (1799, 13)—Abreu left Philly, and the Phillies won two division titles and a World Series. He put up decent numbers with the Yanks, but being A-Rod’s teammate didn’t help matters any (see above).

8. Mark Grudzielanek (1772, 14)—Grudzielanek began his career in Canadian baseball purgatory (Montreal) and has played the last three seasons in American baseball purgatory (Kansas City).

9. Vladimir Guerrero (1750, 13)—This dude has absolutely mashed his entire career, but playing eight years in Montreal ensured a late start in postseason experience. He signed with the Angels two years after they won it all, and is on a very talented team that always seems to underachieve in the playoffs.

10. Miguel Tejada (1713, 12)—Tejada won an MVP award in Oakland and has put up some monster numbers. His link to steroid use, along with A-Rod’s, has not exactly put him in a good light, but it’s still a bit surprising that he’s never made it to the big dance.

Source: Baseball Reference

Less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, here are some of the big names still available: Manny freaking Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, Orlando Hudson, Frank Thomas, and to a lesser extent, Kevin Millar (20 homers last season) and Orlando Cabrera. To put this in perspective, the Astros signed pitcher Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal a few days ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Guillermo Mota, the Angels inked Darren Oliver for one year, and the White Sox brought back a Bartolo Colon who is on the downside of his career. Clearly, it’s a pitchers’ market this off-season, and it’s almost mind-boggling that Ramirez has gone almost three full months without being signed.

Part of the problem here is that the big spenders (ahem, New York teams) have blown their collective load on the likes of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., leaving a team like the Dodgers the likely scenario for Man-Ram in 2009, which at the end of the day is probably best for both sides anyway. But some of those other guys are going to have trouble finding work, or they are going to take a recession-friendly deal from a team they wouldn’t have signed with otherwise. It’s already happened with Pat Burrell in Tampa and Jason Giambi with Oakland.

In other more recent news, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Kevin Youkilis on Thursday, agreeing to terms on a four-year deal. And the Dodgers finally released beleaguered outfielder Andruw Jones, who the Braves are considering bringing back for the league minimum salary. The Braves are also mulling over whether to bring back injury-plagued LHP Tom Glavine for one more season.