Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

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Chris Bosh discussed Miami as a possible destination next summer.

“As of right now, I’m not sure. I like Miami, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know what comes along with being a part of that organization. I don’t even have any friends in Miami, which was the funniest part. A close friend of mine hit me yesterday and was like ‘Hey there’s another article out’ and I was like ‘What now?’ ‘Apparently a friend in Miami said you’re going to Miami.’ He sent me the article and I read it, and I’m like, ‘now they’re just making stuff up.’”

For Heat fans, re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing Bosh would be a dream scenario next summer. The best thing Miami has going for it (other than South Beach, of course) is Wade, so if Bosh signs he better hope that Wade doesn’t pull an Elton Brand and bolt. Speaking of…

Dwyane Wade discussed his hometown of Chicago as a possible destination next summer.

“I’m not ruling out a lot of places, including Chicago, but I’m not really thinking about those places. Like I said, 2010 is the year when I will sit down and open up my options and, hopefully, I’m still blessed and healthy to have those options and then go from there. But Miami is my number one option and I’ve made that clear. That’s where I want to be and, hopefully, we can get everything right here in Miami.”

Wade is just keeping his options open. He has said repeatedly that he’d like to stay in Miami, but he’s keeping the organization’s feet to the fire by insinuating that he still might leave if the franchise is unable to surround him with good players. The Heat are projected to have significant cap space next summer, so they could conceivably sign Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or even LeBron James.

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It looks like Orlando Magic are open to the idea of entering luxury tax territory (for the first time) if it means they can keep the Orlando core together by re-signing Hedo Turkoglu.

Magic President and chief executive officer Bob Vander Weide told FanHouse that ownership likely would approve paying the luxury tax for the first time if it means keeping the nucleus of this team together.

“We’ve always avoided the tax, but winning has a crazy effect on people,” Vander Weide said. “The [DeVos] family (which owns the team) is having fun right now. I don’t think anyone has a willingness to stay in tax for 10 years, but to go in for a few years to ride this out, I don’t think that’s threatening to our family short term.”

Re-signing Turkoglu, who is expected to exercise his option to become a free agent, likely would push them into the luxury tax. Vander Weide also said the Magic will be trying this summer also to obtain a true power forward to help Dwight Howard with the rebounding load.

Turkoglu, who would make $7.1 million next season if he remained in his current contract, is expected to command a long-term deal in free agency worth an estimated $10-$12 million annually.

Other than reaching the NBA Finals, the biggest reason the Magic have dropped their reluctance to pay the luxury tax is that they will be moving into a new arena at the start of the 2010-11 season, which Vander Weide believes will translate into an additional $20 million more in revenue each year.

Despite overpaying for Rashard Lewis, the Magic are actually in pretty good shape payroll-wise. Entering the 2010 season, they only have five players under contract — Lewis, Howard, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee. While Lewis salary ($18.0 million) is pretty ridiculous, the salaries of Howard ($15.2 million), Nelson ($7.7 million) and Pietrus ($5.3 million) are all reasonable given what they bring to the table. Howard is a superstar making superstar money, the All-Star Nelson is a bargain at under $8 million per sesason and Pietrus is proving to be a very good defender and underrated scorer on the wing.

Turkoglu has arguably been the Magic’s most consistent player in these playoffs and deserves a raise. The Magic need to be careful, however, because he’s already 30, so he may only be able to play at this level for two or three more seasons (if that). They don’t want to get locked into a five- or six-year deal that they’ll be regretting in a few seasons. $10-$12 million per season sounds fair, but the Magic would be wise to see what the market will bear.

There are five teams that currently project to have the cap space to make him an offer of more than $10 million per season: Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Toronto. We can probably cross off Memphis, Sacramento and OKC, as they are not likely to add a pricey 30-year-old as they continue to rebuild. Besides, the Thunder already have a pretty good small forward in Kevin Durant. Likewise, the Pistons have Tayshaun Prince, so they probably wouldn’t be interested. That leaves Toronto. The Raptors might want to make a big splash in free agency in the hopes that they can surround Chris Bosh with enough talent to convince him to stay next summer. Toronto just traded away Jason Kapono, which freed up another $1.2 million in cap space. That gives the Raptors roughly $12 million to play with, so they could make life difficult on the Magic if they target Turkoglu in free agency.

However, if Toronto doesn’t express any interest, the Magic would be wise to try to get Turkoglu to sign a three- or four-year deal averaging around $8-$9 million per season. It is doubtful that any other teams with cap space are going to come that strong.

Kobe Bryant went 11 for 31 from the field, and struggled to score down the stretch. Luckily for the Lakers, Derek Fisher continued to shoot well in the series and knocked down two huge threes, one at the end of regulation and one in the extra period to completely change the complexion of the game, and as a result, the series. (Lakers win, 99-91.)

But this one never should have gone to overtime. With a five-point lead and 0:39 to play, Rashard Lewis had a chance to push the lead to seven, but missed the 15-footer. Up three with 0:11 to play, Dwight Howard missed two free throws, either of which would have made it a two possession game. On the ensuing inbounds play, Jameer Nelson ponderously laid off of Derek Fisher who pulled up and hit the game-tying three. I don’t know if Stan Van Gundy had the foul on there, but at the very least Nelson should have been crowding Fisher to force the drive.

The Magic really lost this game at the start of the third quarter. Their 12-point halftime lead was gone within six minutes, and they didn’t even force the Lakers to expend a lot of energy to cut into the lead. Trevor Ariza led the charge with 11 quick points in the first half of the quarter.

Van Gundy will look at the box score and scratch his head. The Magic had 17 turnovers, and most of those were in the first half. Had they took care of the ball, they probably would have pushed the lead to 20. Orlando also missed 13 free throws, eight from Howard, who was just 6 of 14 from the line.

Bryant finished with 32 points, eight assists and seven boards, and had a good all-around game even though he didn’t shoot the ball well. Pau Gasol and Trevor Ariza pitched in with 16 apiece.

Hedo Turkoglu played a great game, posting 23 points, three assists and five boards. He put the Magic in a position to win, but his teammates couldn’t seal the deal. Turkoglu isn’t infallible, however. He did miss three free throws down the stretch. Howard posted 16 points, 21 rebounds and nine blocks, but he turned over the ball seven times. Outside of a tough three to give Orlando the lead in OT, Lewis was a no-show. He went 2 for 10 for six points. Mickael Pietrus once again played great off the bench, scoring 15 points and making life tough for Kobe.

For all intents and purposes, this series is over. The odds of the Magic winning three straight games (two in L.A.) are very, very long. After the tough loss in Game 2, they had to win all three games in Orlando to have a realistic shot at upsetting the Lakers.

I know there are a lot of people out there that aren’t very happy to see Kobe win another ring (and I’m one of them). But you have to give him credit for maturing enough to trust his teammates. He gave the ball up in a couple of key situations and they both led to Fisher threes.

It’s not quite over, but the Laker fans have reason to celebrate. Heck, most of them started planning the parade when L.A. won Game 2.

The Lakers routed the Magic, 100-75, in Game 1 of the Finals. Kobe Bryant had a brilliant game, posting 40 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, two steals and two blocks. Pau Gasol chipped in with 16 points and eight rebounds, and Lamar Odom was the only other Laker to score in double digits with 11 points to go along with 14 boards.

The game was still close (10 points) at halftime until a 29-15 third quarter put the Lakers firmly in control. The Magic shot just 30% from the field and the Orlando starters shot just 10 of 46 (22%) from the floor. The trio of Dwight Howard (12 points, 15 rebounds), Rashard Lewis (eight points) and Hedo Turkoglu (13 points) all had subpar games, and despite reports that he was not going to get any action, Jameer Nelson played 23 minutes, and went 3 of 9 from the field for six points.

Marcia Smith of the Orange County Register writes that the Lakers can start thinking sweep.

Given that nonchalance, is there any legitimate reason to expect that the Magic can conjure from thin air something as elaborate as an offensive game plan or an effective defense by Sunday’s Game 2 to make this series last longer than four games?

Probably not. Lakers fans should buy more brooms.

Mark Bresnahan of the LA Times writes that Kobe was the one who looked like Superman.

Perhaps his best play started with a crossover dribble, then a few more dribbles as he measured up Mickael Pietrus, drove on him and delivered a double-pump nine-foot bank shot after being fouled. The made free throw gave the Lakers a 75-52 lead with 3:17 left in the third quarter.

Bryant, who had 18 points in the third quarter, refused to claim any sort of victory.

“We haven’t found anything,” he said. “It’s one game. No big deal.”

Chris Sheridan of ESPN.com says that Orlando fans won’t be encouraged by Mickael Pietrus’s words after the game.

As for the Magic’s defense, we advise anyone back in central Florida dressed in blue and white to skip ahead two paragraphs because the following quote from Pietrus — Orlando’s designated Kobe stopper — isn’t exactly going to inspire confidence (nor will it be pleasant to know that Pietrus was smiling as he said it).

“I was trying to do my best, but everyone knows this guy is a legend. What can you do?”

Are the Magic likely to bounce back from a 25-point defeat to win the series? No. They were outhustled, outplayed and looked outclassed. But it’s way too early to start talking sweep, and Smith’s article is just the kind of talk that Stan Van Gundy wants his team to hear over the next couple of days.

As I was watching the game with a friend, I mentioned to him that the bigger the win in Game 1, the better the Magic’s chances of stealing Game 2. The Lakers have a tendency to lose focus, and this Orlando team isn’t going to roll over. They’ve been resilient all year and all playoffs, and they’re likely to play a lot better on Sunday.

The so-called “shot that saved Cleveland” didn’t seem to affect the Magic in Game 3. The heartbreaking Game 2 loss would have sent most teams into a tailspin, but Orlando has been resilient all season long, and like any championship-caliber team, the Magic look forward not backward.

Game 3 was the most physical of the series thus far. The officials called 58 fouls and the teams shot a combined 86 free throws. Dwight Howard shot 19 of the Magic’s 51 attempts, and made 14. That’s a 74% clip for a guy who shot 59% on the season.

Free throws also had an impact on the Cavs. LeBron James made 18 of 24 attempts (75%), but missed five attempts in a six-minute stretch in the fourth quarter that, had he made them all, would have had his team trailing by one instead of six with two minutes to play. Even the most diehard Cleveland fan would admit that LeBron was getting to the line more than he ought to be in the final quarter. He got just about every call when he went to the hole, drawing a questionable blocking foul on Mickael Pietrus, and drew a foul on the retreating Howard at the rim. Then Howard fouled out after cleanly blocking LeBron’s three-point attempt with 0:36 to play. In short, LeBron is getting Jordan-esque treatment from the refs, even on the road.

He posted 41 points, nine assists, seven rebounds, two steals and an amazing block, but shot just 1 of 8 from three-point range. The Magic’s plan is to encourage LeBron to shoot the long ball. If he happens to get hot, then they’ll just have to live with it. The Cavs didn’t have much else going offensively. Mo Williams scored 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting and Delonte West pitched in with 12 points. The rest of the Cavs combined for 21 of the team’s 89 points.

The Magic had a more balanced attack with five players in double figures, led by Howard’s 24 points.

With the loss, the Cavs find themselves in a hole once again. They do not want to go down 3-1 in the series, so while Game 4 isn’t quite a “must-win,” it’s damn close.

…and maybe the franchise itself.

When the home team loses Game 1 of a seven-game series at home, they usually come out strong and focused in Game 2, and that’s exactly what the Cavs did tonight. They actually built a 23-point lead, and looked like they were on their way to an easy win, but the Magic slowly but surely chipped away at the lead. It was 12 at halftime. Then it was six at the end of the third quarter. The Magic just kept coming.

Orlando had the ball with 0:13 to play, tied at 93-93, when Hedo Turkoglu ran the clock down, drove into the lane and hit the go-ahead bucket with 0:01 to play. He should have taken that extra second, because on the next possession, LeBron caught the ball at the top of the key extended, fading away, and rattled home the game-winning three. I’m amazed that he was even able to get open that easily, but he simply walked into Turkoglu, shoved him a little (nothing illegal) creating the space to catch the ball and shoot. I bet Stan Van Gundy would like to have that defensive possession back and double-team LeBron instead of having Rashard Lewis guard the ball out of bounds. With only 1.0 seconds remaining, there wouldn’t be enough time for the passer to get the ball back and get off a shot.

The Cavs were very fortunate to escape Game 2 with the series tied, and the win might breathe new life into a team that is playing with very little consistency right now. The Magic are simply a bad matchup for the Cavs. Dwight Howard is a tough guard down low and the versatility of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis is causing fits for the Cleveland forwards. And Stan Van Gundy has outcoached Mike Brown thus. He swapped the matchups for Dwight Howard (putting him on Varejao) and Rashard Lewis (putting him on Ilgauskas) to allow each defender to play to his strengths.

Typically, when a team loses a heartbreaker like this, they are a little hungover in the next game, but this Magic team is mentally tough, and they will keep coming at the Cavs. Cleveland will need to play 48 minutes (and maybe more) of good, solid basketball in order to get a win in Orlando.

I can’t imagine what Cavs fans went through over the last quarter of this game. They’re fooling themselves if they think it’s a sure thing that LeBron is going to stay next summer. The Cavs need to get to the Finals, and if they flame out against the Magic, I’d fully expect all the LeBron-to-NY/NJ rumors to start back up again. The city of Cleveland cannot afford a Cavs’ loss in this series.

In a great back-and-forth second half, the Magic finally upended the Cavs, 107-106.

The Cavs jumped out early but the Magic settled down in the second quarter and kept the game reasonably close. They would have been down by 12 at halftime if not for a three-quarter-court heave by Mo Williams that put the Cavs up 15.

One thing that jumped out at me is the way that the Cavs matched up at the beginning of the game. They put Delonte West on Hedo Turkoglu, Mo Williams on Courtney Lee and LeBron on Rafer Alston. As good of defense as LeBron has played this season, the Cavs actually think West is their best perimeter defender. He’s smaller than Turkoglu, but that doesn’t really matter because Turkoglu doesn’t post up. West can hug him on the perimeter and contest his jumper and use his quickness to keep him from getting to the hole. Meanwhile, it’s highly unlikely that LeBron will get into foul trouble covering Alston.

Conversely, Stan Van Gundy should really think about switching his front court matchups by putting Howard on Anderson Varejao and Rashard Lewis on the more perimeter-oriented Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Lewis would be at a size disadvantage, but it would allow Howard to stay closer to the rim since Varejao doesn’t spend a lot of time on the perimeter.

For much of the first half, Dwight Howard couldn’t catch a break inside. The refs were letting the Cleveland bigs abuse him, but called him for a couple of ticky-tack offensive fouls, which kept him in foul trouble throughout the first half. If the refs are going to let defenders hack away, then they better let Howard use his strength when he has the ball.

The Magic proved during the Boston series that they are a resilient team. They are not easily rattled and they don’t get down on each other when things aren’t going well. Orlando went into Dwight Howard repeatedly in the third quarter and cut the Cleveland lead to four at the end of the quarter.

The final period was nip tuck the whole way. LeBron fouled Howard out of the game (undeservedly, I might add, as Howard jumped straight up) on a three point play that put the Cavs up two with 0:25 to play and then Lewis hit a huge three to put the Magic up one with 0:14 remaining. The Magic doubled LeBron right away and he gave the ball up. The possession ended with a missed corner three by West, a jump ball and then a Mo Williams attempt off the jump ball that was thisclose to going in.

The Magic continued to fight and took advantage of a Cleveland team that seemingly put it into cruise control at halftime. The Cavs tried to turn it on again in the fourth quarter but Orlando made enough plays to steal Game 1. LeBron finished with 49 points, eight assists, six rebounds, three blocks and two steals. Mo Williams chipped in with 17 points. Howard had 30 points and 13 boards before fouling out. Rashard Lewis went 9 of 13 from the field (including several clutch shots down the stretch) for 22 points and Hedo Turkoglu scored 15 points while dishing out 14 assists. The Cavs bench was thoroughly outplayed; they were outscored 25-5.

If tonight is any evidence, this is going to be an interesting series.

It’s always funny to hear pundits say that one team can’t beat another in a seven-game series. In most cases, those teams can spring the upset, but that doesn’t mean that they will. Such is the case in the Eastern Conference Finals where the Orlando Magic will try to upend the Cleveland Cavaliers.

No team has been more impressive in the postseason than the Cavs. They swept both the Pistons and the Hawks, and seem destined for the Finals. They have the best player in the league in LeBron James, a sharpshooting sidekick in Mo Williams and a host of players willing to fill their respective roles. Simply stated, they look unstoppable right now.

Conversely, the Magic struggled at times in their seven-game series against the Celtics, though that might have more to do with Boston’s defense and championship pedigree than anything the Magic were doing wrong. This Cavs/Magic series would be a lot more interesting if Jameer Nelson were healthy, but Rafer Alston has been a decent stopgap at point guard, and Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are proving to be nice complements for big man Dwight Howard. The Magic are built like the Rockets were in the Hakeem Olajuwon era in that they have a center that demands a double team and have surrounded him with a number of players who can make teams pay from the perimeter. The problem is that Howard isn’t nearly the passer or the free throw shooter that Olajuwon was, so he’s not a great option in crunch time. The Magic have a tendency to fall in love with the long ball and don’t have a guy who can get to the rim on a consistent basis. But if Orlando is knocking down their threes (as they were in Game 7 of the Boston series), they’re nearly unstoppable.

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If you didn’t watch Game 7 of the Boston/Orlando series last night, you might look at the score (101-82) and assume that the Magic controlled the whole game. Not so. Orlando held a five-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but an 8-0 run by the Magic at the start of the period pushed the lead to 13, and they went on to a 35-point quarter and a series victory.

In the first six games of the series, Orlando’s recipe for a win was pretty simple — defense. In their wins (Game 1, Game 3 and Game 6), the Magic held the Celtics to less than 44% shooting from the field. In their losses (Game 2, Game 4 and Game 5), the Celtics shot better than 44%. In Game 6, the Magic held the C’s to just 39% shooting.

The other major factor was the the Magic’s accuracy from long range. Early in the series, Orlando had the touch from three-point land, shooting a combined 26 of 64 (41%) in the first three games. In Game 4, Game 5 and Game 6, the Magic shot just 17 of 77 (22%) from deep. In Game 7, the Magic hit a stellar 13 of 21 (62%) of their threes, and it’s tough to beat a team when they are that hot from long range.

What was the difference? Boston’s perimeter defense is pretty good, but Orlando did an outstanding job of moving the ball crisply and cleanly, and the C’s just couldn’t chase down all of the Magic’s shooters.

Hedo Turkoglu was the star of the game, posting 25 points, 12 assists and five rebounds, while hitting 4 of 5 from long range. Four other Orlando players — Rashard Lewis (19), Mickael Pietrus (17), Rafer Alston (15) and Dwight Howard (12) — scored in double figures to provide a balanced offensive attack.

With the loss, the Celtics go home for the summer. They face another offseason where they may lose one or more of their key contributors. Last year, it was James Posey (signed with the Hornets) and P.J. Brown (retirement) who left, while this summer both Glen Davis and Leon Powe are free agents. Boston’s payroll is quite high ($73.7 million), so whether or not these players come back depends on how far over the luxury tax the Celtics’ ownership is willing to go. The luxury tax for next season probably won’t change from its level this year ($71.1 million), so any contract that Davis or Powe signs with the C’s will have to be matched dollar-for-dollar in luxury tax. For example, if they sign Davis to a four-year deal worth $16 million, that contract is going to cost the C’s an additional $4 million per season as long as they are over the luxury tax threshold.