I think we can file this one under “obvious,” since the Magic didn’t re-sign Turkoglu, but it’s interesting nonetheless…

Per Real GM…

In a conversation with Blazers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard, [Magic GM Otis] Smith told Pritchard that he had “caught a break” with Turkoglu signing elsewhere and made it clear the Blazers “weren’t missing out on anything,” sources tell RealGM’s Alex Kennedy.

Smith didn’t feel that Turkoglu was worth the five-year, $50 million Portland was ready to spend.

Turkoglu is 30. If anyone thinks that he’s going to be worth $11-$12 million when he’s 34 or 35 and at the back end of this contract, I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking. But both the Blazers and the Raptors knew that in order to get Turkoglu to agree to a deal, it had to be a long-term contract.

Smith didn’t say this publicly, so I’m not going to blast him for throwing a former player under the bus. But it still seems odd that he’d be badmouthing Turkoglu — one of the main reasons the Magic made an appearance in the Finals — to other GMs around the league. When Jameer Nelson went down, Turkoglu took over the ballhandling duties and acted as a point forward. He ran countless pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, dished out a bunch of assists and hit several huge shots. Simply stated, Orlando wouldn’t have made it to the Finals without him.

Is he worth $10 million a year heading into his thirties? Probably not. But he’ll probably earn his keep for the first few years of that contract, and that’s all the Raptors are worried about right now.

The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.

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Last night, it pretty much seemed like a done deal that Hedo Turkoglu was going to sign with the Blazers, but now ESPN is reporting that the Turkish forward is going to instead sign with the Toronto Raptors.

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

A source close to the discussions said Turkoglu had given a verbal commitment to the Blazers on Thursday, then alerted the team on Friday morning that he was having second thoughts. By mid-afternoon Pacific time, the Blazers were told the deal was dead and Turkoglu would be signing with the Raptors.

Turkoglu will make about $3 million more over the life of the contract than he would have made in Portland, but a bigger reason for his change of heart, a source told ESPN.com, was his desire to play in Toronto, a more international and cosmopolitan city — one with a large Turkish population — and his familiarity with the Eastern Conference after having spent the last five seasons with the Magic.

It seems like a dangerous thing to delve inside the mind of Hedo Turkoglu, but I’m going to try. First, he sets his price tag so high that the team that made him a star — the Orlando Magic — can’t or won’t afford to keep him. So he’d rather play for the up-and-coming Blazers than try to repeat as Eastern Conference champs in Orlando. That’s a decision I could understand. I didn’t think that he’d get the $10 million per season that he was looking for, but the Blazers ponied up, and they look like a team that will be at or near the top of the West for the next several years. But to shun Portland to play for an also-ran that seems destined to lose its best player (Chris Bosh) for a few extra million doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

I suppose it’s tough to turn down $3 million, but when you’re talking about $53 million or $50 million, I don’t see much of a difference. Personally, I’d want to play for a contender, and knowing how elusive chemistry and dynasties can be, I probably would have taken the four-year, $35 million extension from the Magic. I can’t blame Turkoglu for taking the extra $15 million and heading to Portland, but I do question the reasoning behind shunning the Blazers for the Raptors.

Maybe he’ll help the Raptors get back to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll be the difference that will convince Bosh to re-sign. Or maybe the Raptors will flounder as a fringe playoff team and he’ll eventually regret this decision as he watches Orlando and Portland play deep into the postseason year after year.

Per TrueHoop…

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

The Orlando Magic’s recent trade for Vince Carter, who has a large salary and plays small forward — which is Turkoglu’s position — made it highly unlikely Turkoglu would be back in Orlando.

The Toronto Raptors expressed interest in Turkoglu, but were constrained by their other efforts to keep Shawn Marion and Carlos Delfino.

Turkoglu, a 6-10 forward from Turkey who played a prominent role in the Magic’s recent trip to the NBA Finals, had been looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million.

Five years and $50 million is a lot for Turkoglu, who is already 30 years-old and isn’t particularly efficient statistically. But his game is a pretty good fit for the Blazers, who want to space the court for Brandon Roy. Turkoglu is a good enough shooter to do that, plus he can handle the ball really well for a small forward, which help to take the pressure off of Roy. In fact, with Roy at the two and Turkoglu at the three, there’s enough ball handling there that the team doesn’t have to play with a traditional point guard. This may open up minutes for Rudy Fernandez, who was reportedly upset about the Blazers’ interest in Turkoglu.

The other thing to remember is that the Blazers’ cap space wasn’t going to last. They have to sign both Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions as soon as this summer and Greg Oden will be eligible for an extension next summer. It was sort of a “use it or lose” it scenario for the Blazers, and owner Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend. They added a versatile, experienced small forward who proved in the playoffs that he knows how to win. $10 million per season is a lot for Turkoglu, but his game should age pretty well, so at worst the Blazers should get quality play for the first three or four years of the deal.

What’s lost in all of this is the fact that Orlando will not be bringing back the core that went to the Finals this year. Chemistry is a rare quality and the Magic may rue the day that they brought in Vince Carter and waved goodbye to Turkoglu. After all, there were two overtime games in the first four, and the Lakers won both. Had those games gone the other way, the Magic would have led the series 3-1 with Game 5 at home to clinch the title. They didn’t need to tinker this much, and GM Otis Smith may eventually regret it.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

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Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

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Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

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Chris Bosh discussed Miami as a possible destination next summer.

“As of right now, I’m not sure. I like Miami, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know what comes along with being a part of that organization. I don’t even have any friends in Miami, which was the funniest part. A close friend of mine hit me yesterday and was like ‘Hey there’s another article out’ and I was like ‘What now?’ ‘Apparently a friend in Miami said you’re going to Miami.’ He sent me the article and I read it, and I’m like, ‘now they’re just making stuff up.’”

For Heat fans, re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing Bosh would be a dream scenario next summer. The best thing Miami has going for it (other than South Beach, of course) is Wade, so if Bosh signs he better hope that Wade doesn’t pull an Elton Brand and bolt. Speaking of…

Dwyane Wade discussed his hometown of Chicago as a possible destination next summer.

“I’m not ruling out a lot of places, including Chicago, but I’m not really thinking about those places. Like I said, 2010 is the year when I will sit down and open up my options and, hopefully, I’m still blessed and healthy to have those options and then go from there. But Miami is my number one option and I’ve made that clear. That’s where I want to be and, hopefully, we can get everything right here in Miami.”

Wade is just keeping his options open. He has said repeatedly that he’d like to stay in Miami, but he’s keeping the organization’s feet to the fire by insinuating that he still might leave if the franchise is unable to surround him with good players. The Heat are projected to have significant cap space next summer, so they could conceivably sign Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or even LeBron James.

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It looks like Orlando Magic are open to the idea of entering luxury tax territory (for the first time) if it means they can keep the Orlando core together by re-signing Hedo Turkoglu.

Magic President and chief executive officer Bob Vander Weide told FanHouse that ownership likely would approve paying the luxury tax for the first time if it means keeping the nucleus of this team together.

“We’ve always avoided the tax, but winning has a crazy effect on people,” Vander Weide said. “The [DeVos] family (which owns the team) is having fun right now. I don’t think anyone has a willingness to stay in tax for 10 years, but to go in for a few years to ride this out, I don’t think that’s threatening to our family short term.”

Re-signing Turkoglu, who is expected to exercise his option to become a free agent, likely would push them into the luxury tax. Vander Weide also said the Magic will be trying this summer also to obtain a true power forward to help Dwight Howard with the rebounding load.

Turkoglu, who would make $7.1 million next season if he remained in his current contract, is expected to command a long-term deal in free agency worth an estimated $10-$12 million annually.

Other than reaching the NBA Finals, the biggest reason the Magic have dropped their reluctance to pay the luxury tax is that they will be moving into a new arena at the start of the 2010-11 season, which Vander Weide believes will translate into an additional $20 million more in revenue each year.

Despite overpaying for Rashard Lewis, the Magic are actually in pretty good shape payroll-wise. Entering the 2010 season, they only have five players under contract — Lewis, Howard, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee. While Lewis salary ($18.0 million) is pretty ridiculous, the salaries of Howard ($15.2 million), Nelson ($7.7 million) and Pietrus ($5.3 million) are all reasonable given what they bring to the table. Howard is a superstar making superstar money, the All-Star Nelson is a bargain at under $8 million per sesason and Pietrus is proving to be a very good defender and underrated scorer on the wing.

Turkoglu has arguably been the Magic’s most consistent player in these playoffs and deserves a raise. The Magic need to be careful, however, because he’s already 30, so he may only be able to play at this level for two or three more seasons (if that). They don’t want to get locked into a five- or six-year deal that they’ll be regretting in a few seasons. $10-$12 million per season sounds fair, but the Magic would be wise to see what the market will bear.

There are five teams that currently project to have the cap space to make him an offer of more than $10 million per season: Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Toronto. We can probably cross off Memphis, Sacramento and OKC, as they are not likely to add a pricey 30-year-old as they continue to rebuild. Besides, the Thunder already have a pretty good small forward in Kevin Durant. Likewise, the Pistons have Tayshaun Prince, so they probably wouldn’t be interested. That leaves Toronto. The Raptors might want to make a big splash in free agency in the hopes that they can surround Chris Bosh with enough talent to convince him to stay next summer. Toronto just traded away Jason Kapono, which freed up another $1.2 million in cap space. That gives the Raptors roughly $12 million to play with, so they could make life difficult on the Magic if they target Turkoglu in free agency.

However, if Toronto doesn’t express any interest, the Magic would be wise to try to get Turkoglu to sign a three- or four-year deal averaging around $8-$9 million per season. It is doubtful that any other teams with cap space are going to come that strong.

Kobe Bryant went 11 for 31 from the field, and struggled to score down the stretch. Luckily for the Lakers, Derek Fisher continued to shoot well in the series and knocked down two huge threes, one at the end of regulation and one in the extra period to completely change the complexion of the game, and as a result, the series. (Lakers win, 99-91.)

But this one never should have gone to overtime. With a five-point lead and 0:39 to play, Rashard Lewis had a chance to push the lead to seven, but missed the 15-footer. Up three with 0:11 to play, Dwight Howard missed two free throws, either of which would have made it a two possession game. On the ensuing inbounds play, Jameer Nelson ponderously laid off of Derek Fisher who pulled up and hit the game-tying three. I don’t know if Stan Van Gundy had the foul on there, but at the very least Nelson should have been crowding Fisher to force the drive.

The Magic really lost this game at the start of the third quarter. Their 12-point halftime lead was gone within six minutes, and they didn’t even force the Lakers to expend a lot of energy to cut into the lead. Trevor Ariza led the charge with 11 quick points in the first half of the quarter.

Van Gundy will look at the box score and scratch his head. The Magic had 17 turnovers, and most of those were in the first half. Had they took care of the ball, they probably would have pushed the lead to 20. Orlando also missed 13 free throws, eight from Howard, who was just 6 of 14 from the line.

Bryant finished with 32 points, eight assists and seven boards, and had a good all-around game even though he didn’t shoot the ball well. Pau Gasol and Trevor Ariza pitched in with 16 apiece.

Hedo Turkoglu played a great game, posting 23 points, three assists and five boards. He put the Magic in a position to win, but his teammates couldn’t seal the deal. Turkoglu isn’t infallible, however. He did miss three free throws down the stretch. Howard posted 16 points, 21 rebounds and nine blocks, but he turned over the ball seven times. Outside of a tough three to give Orlando the lead in OT, Lewis was a no-show. He went 2 for 10 for six points. Mickael Pietrus once again played great off the bench, scoring 15 points and making life tough for Kobe.

For all intents and purposes, this series is over. The odds of the Magic winning three straight games (two in L.A.) are very, very long. After the tough loss in Game 2, they had to win all three games in Orlando to have a realistic shot at upsetting the Lakers.

I know there are a lot of people out there that aren’t very happy to see Kobe win another ring (and I’m one of them). But you have to give him credit for maturing enough to trust his teammates. He gave the ball up in a couple of key situations and they both led to Fisher threes.

It’s not quite over, but the Laker fans have reason to celebrate. Heck, most of them started planning the parade when L.A. won Game 2.