I think we can file this one under “obvious,” since the Magic didn’t re-sign Turkoglu, but it’s interesting nonetheless…

Per Real GM…

In a conversation with Blazers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard, [Magic GM Otis] Smith told Pritchard that he had “caught a break” with Turkoglu signing elsewhere and made it clear the Blazers “weren’t missing out on anything,” sources tell RealGM’s Alex Kennedy.

Smith didn’t feel that Turkoglu was worth the five-year, $50 million Portland was ready to spend.

Turkoglu is 30. If anyone thinks that he’s going to be worth $11-$12 million when he’s 34 or 35 and at the back end of this contract, I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking. But both the Blazers and the Raptors knew that in order to get Turkoglu to agree to a deal, it had to be a long-term contract.

Smith didn’t say this publicly, so I’m not going to blast him for throwing a former player under the bus. But it still seems odd that he’d be badmouthing Turkoglu — one of the main reasons the Magic made an appearance in the Finals — to other GMs around the league. When Jameer Nelson went down, Turkoglu took over the ballhandling duties and acted as a point forward. He ran countless pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, dished out a bunch of assists and hit several huge shots. Simply stated, Orlando wouldn’t have made it to the Finals without him.

Is he worth $10 million a year heading into his thirties? Probably not. But he’ll probably earn his keep for the first few years of that contract, and that’s all the Raptors are worried about right now.

The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.

3. T-Wolves draft both Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn with no (good) plan in place.
When GM David Kahn drafted two point guards with back to back picks, everyone around the league thought that he had a trade in place. Not so, according to Kahn, who likes the idea of playing two smallish, ball-dominating guards in the same backcourt. Now Rubio is threatening to stay in Europe for another year or two, and Kahn is seemingly happy to wait until Rubio finally makes his way to the NBA to see if his unorthodox plan (and that’s being kind) will ultimately work.

4. The Magic trade for Vince Carter.
Let’s see, your team just lost in the Finals — losing two games in overtime — and your main ballhandler is a free agent. What do you do? It’s tough to create the kind of chemistry that gets a team to the Finals, so you re-sign him, right? Not the Orlando Magic, who balked at Hedo Turkoglu’s $10 million-per-season asking price and instead pulled the trigger on a trade for Vince Carter. So essentially they gave up their most consistent player (Turkoglu) and a budding star (Courtney Lee) for the 32-year-old Carter. A healthy Jameer Nelson (along with a savvy mid-level signing) may have been enough to put this Magic team over the top, but now we’ll never know.

5. Pistons sign Ben Gordon for $11 million per season.
Look, I like Ben Gordon…for about $8 million per season. The guy is a great scorer, but he has sketchy shot selection at times and is a big liability on defense. For years, the Bulls didn’t even deem him good enough to start, but the Pistons are going to throw $11 million per year at him? And it turns out that they were bidding against themselves, as the Bulls didn’t even bother to make an offer before Gordon signed with Detroit.

6. No one makes an offer (that we know of) to Ramon Sessions.
7. The Bucks don’t extend one-year offer to Charlie Villanueva and lose him without compensation.
8. The Bucks give away Richard Jefferson.
Let’s tackle my beloved Bucks all at once. First, they give away a former All-Star Jefferson in a salary dump. Then, they elect not to take the option to make Villanueva a restricted free agent, which allows the Pistons to sign him away without having to give the Bucks anything in return. I know why the Bucks made these moves — they don’t feel that this roster is worthy of being in luxury tax territory and I don’t disagree, but small market teams can’t give away assets for nothing. Yeah, maybe signing Villanueva for the final year of his rookie contract would have cost them $4 million or more, but they could have traded him for a young prospect or maybe a draft pick. And why didn’t they get a first rounder out of the Spurs for Jefferson? Small market teams have a tough time signing stars, so they have to build through the draft and via trade. Giving away the rights to a $7 million-per-season player (which is what the Pistons paid Villanueva) is not the way to get better. Lastly, why hasn’t anyone made RFA Ramon Sessions an offer? The Bucks have proven that they are trying to cut salary and they picked up Brandon Jennings in the draft. Does anyone really think that they’d match a significant ($4-$5 million per year) offer for Sessions? He had the 13th-highest PER amongst all point guards, and the 5th-highest amongst all point guards under the age of 26. Moreover, his +/- numbers are the best on the team for anyone who played more than 1200 minutes. Why hasn’t a team in need of point guard help (Portland?) jumped on this guy?

9. The Suns give away Shaquille O’Neal.
Regular readers know that I’m not fond of the job Steve Kerr is doing in Phoenix. First, he trades Rudy Fernandez away for cash. Then he ruins one of the most exciting teams in NBA history by trading Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal. Now he seemingly admits that the Shaq trade was all for naught by giving him away in a salary dump. Shaq made the Third Team All-NBA last year, and Kerr traded him for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic’s expiring contracts. Geesh.

10. Six teams pass on DeJuan Blair IN THE SECOND ROUND!
When I first heard that there were concerns about Blair’s knees, I thought he might fall into the bottom third of the first round. Even if the guy is missing ligaments in his knees, he was still one of the best rebounders in all of college basketball last season and he ate up #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet in Connecticut. When Blair fell into the second round I was stunned as the Kings, Wizards, Blazers, Nuggets, Pistons and Grizzlies all passed on Blair. A second round pick doesn’t require the same kind of financial commitment as a first round pick, so there’s very little downside if the guy doesn’t pan out. Blair fell and fell, right into the inviting arms of the Spurs, who will be lucky to have him on the roster for the foreseeable future.

Last night, it pretty much seemed like a done deal that Hedo Turkoglu was going to sign with the Blazers, but now ESPN is reporting that the Turkish forward is going to instead sign with the Toronto Raptors.

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

A source close to the discussions said Turkoglu had given a verbal commitment to the Blazers on Thursday, then alerted the team on Friday morning that he was having second thoughts. By mid-afternoon Pacific time, the Blazers were told the deal was dead and Turkoglu would be signing with the Raptors.

Turkoglu will make about $3 million more over the life of the contract than he would have made in Portland, but a bigger reason for his change of heart, a source told ESPN.com, was his desire to play in Toronto, a more international and cosmopolitan city — one with a large Turkish population — and his familiarity with the Eastern Conference after having spent the last five seasons with the Magic.

It seems like a dangerous thing to delve inside the mind of Hedo Turkoglu, but I’m going to try. First, he sets his price tag so high that the team that made him a star — the Orlando Magic — can’t or won’t afford to keep him. So he’d rather play for the up-and-coming Blazers than try to repeat as Eastern Conference champs in Orlando. That’s a decision I could understand. I didn’t think that he’d get the $10 million per season that he was looking for, but the Blazers ponied up, and they look like a team that will be at or near the top of the West for the next several years. But to shun Portland to play for an also-ran that seems destined to lose its best player (Chris Bosh) for a few extra million doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

I suppose it’s tough to turn down $3 million, but when you’re talking about $53 million or $50 million, I don’t see much of a difference. Personally, I’d want to play for a contender, and knowing how elusive chemistry and dynasties can be, I probably would have taken the four-year, $35 million extension from the Magic. I can’t blame Turkoglu for taking the extra $15 million and heading to Portland, but I do question the reasoning behind shunning the Blazers for the Raptors.

Maybe he’ll help the Raptors get back to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll be the difference that will convince Bosh to re-sign. Or maybe the Raptors will flounder as a fringe playoff team and he’ll eventually regret this decision as he watches Orlando and Portland play deep into the postseason year after year.

Per TrueHoop…

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

The Orlando Magic’s recent trade for Vince Carter, who has a large salary and plays small forward — which is Turkoglu’s position — made it highly unlikely Turkoglu would be back in Orlando.

The Toronto Raptors expressed interest in Turkoglu, but were constrained by their other efforts to keep Shawn Marion and Carlos Delfino.

Turkoglu, a 6-10 forward from Turkey who played a prominent role in the Magic’s recent trip to the NBA Finals, had been looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million.

Five years and $50 million is a lot for Turkoglu, who is already 30 years-old and isn’t particularly efficient statistically. But his game is a pretty good fit for the Blazers, who want to space the court for Brandon Roy. Turkoglu is a good enough shooter to do that, plus he can handle the ball really well for a small forward, which help to take the pressure off of Roy. In fact, with Roy at the two and Turkoglu at the three, there’s enough ball handling there that the team doesn’t have to play with a traditional point guard. This may open up minutes for Rudy Fernandez, who was reportedly upset about the Blazers’ interest in Turkoglu.

The other thing to remember is that the Blazers’ cap space wasn’t going to last. They have to sign both Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions as soon as this summer and Greg Oden will be eligible for an extension next summer. It was sort of a “use it or lose” it scenario for the Blazers, and owner Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend. They added a versatile, experienced small forward who proved in the playoffs that he knows how to win. $10 million per season is a lot for Turkoglu, but his game should age pretty well, so at worst the Blazers should get quality play for the first three or four years of the deal.

What’s lost in all of this is the fact that Orlando will not be bringing back the core that went to the Finals this year. Chemistry is a rare quality and the Magic may rue the day that they brought in Vince Carter and waved goodbye to Turkoglu. After all, there were two overtime games in the first four, and the Lakers won both. Had those games gone the other way, the Magic would have led the series 3-1 with Game 5 at home to clinch the title. They didn’t need to tinker this much, and GM Otis Smith may eventually regret it.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

Knicks not offering David Lee what he wants?

A team source claims the Knicks will offer David Lee a four-year deal worth $32M, reports the New York Daily News.

Lee and his agent are asking for $10M per season.

Donnie Walsh is no dummy. Lee is an energy player, and those types of bigs don’t generally get the monster contracts that their back-to-the-basket counterparts do. Walsh knows that most players, given the choice, will want to play in New York, so he’s essentially daring another team to come with a strong enough offer to pry Lee away.

The Rockets are interested in Marcin Gortat.

Rockets.com reports Houston wants Marcin Gortat so bad that Rockets’ general manager Daryl Morey rang the door bell at Gortat’s Orlando-area home at 12:01 am this morning.

I like Morey’s style. While showing up at the house at midnight is a little stalker-ish, I think Gortat will let it slide. Morey even asked Rockets fans for help in recruiting Gortat by setting up an email account for them to send messages to show their support for the signing.

With Yao Ming out indefinitely, it makes sense that the Rockets would try to lock up another center. The Rockets are over the cap, so they can only offer a mid-level deal unless they can swing a sign-and-trade with Orlando.

Jazz not deterred — first to contact Paul Millsap.

General manager Kevin O’Connor called at 10 p.m., according to Millsap’s agent, DeAngelo Simmons.

Simmons called O’Connor a “class act” for the gesture, adding, “I think it was great that they called and expressed their interest. That’s good on their part.”

Simmons is seeking a contract in the $10M a year range for Millsap.

With Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur making the (semi-)surprising decisions to play another season in Utah, the Jazz are going to have to go well over the luxury tax threshold to re-sign Millsap. Utah is a small market team who usually has to overpay to convince free agents to come to (or to stay in) Salt Lake City. Already having Deron Williams locked up is a big bonus.

It will be interesting to see where Millsap lands now that Boozer and Okur are off the market.

Andre Miller wants to get paid.

“We feel, from his body of work, Philadelphia should obviously reflect that in an offer, in appreciation for what he has done or what he can do for them in the future. We know the team has financial commitments elsewhere, but we also know Andre has continued to produce and deliver.”

Everyone wants to get paid, but 33-year-old Miller is reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth $30 million. Anytime an agent starts talking about his client wanting “appreciation for what he has done,” it’s time to get a little worried. $10 million per season is way too much to pay Miller and his camp knows that the Sixers are probably the only team able to make that kind of an offer.

Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

Jason Kidd is meeting with the Knicks. According to the article if they don’t get Kidd, they may go after Ramon Sessions.

Kidd doesn’t seem like a very good fit for a team in the beginning stages of a rebuilding process, though the Knicks hope to accelerate that process by signing one or two big-name free agents next summer. I’m sure Kidd is interested in the prospects of being a part of that team, but it’s unclear how much of a role money will play in his decision. Unless they work out a sign-and-trade with the Mavs, the Knicks can only offer Kidd the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million).

As for Sessions, I think the Bucks are positioned to match any offer up to the mid-level, and I think that’s the top end of his market right now. Milwaukee would be wise to lock him up before next summer’s free-for-all.

Hedo Turkoglu turned down a four-year extension worth $35 million after the Finals.

“It’s going to be hard, but it’s not out of the question, and it’s certainly not out of our focus,” Vander Weide said of re-signing Turkoglu. “We didn’t do (the Carter trade) thinking automatically that Turk won’t be here. What you try to do in this league is collect assets, but occasionally you have to move those assets for something that’s a better fit. We still see Turk as an asset, and we’ll try to get something done, but we won’t know for a week or so what kind of deal we’re up against.”

Four years is longer than I would want to go, but I think he’ll eventually regret passing that deal up. Stan Van Gundy and the Magic gave him the opportunity to thrive and it’s shortsighted to pass up the chance to play on a championship-caliber club for a few extra million. The Blazers, Raptors and Kings are said to be interested, but only Portland is a serious championship contender.

Meanwhile, the Magic may very well be ruining a good thing buy acquiring Carter and letting Turkoglu walk. It’s not wise to drastically alter the face of a team that just went to the NBA Finals. And it’s not like the Lakers revealed some glaring deficiencies in the Magic roster. Sure, L.A. won in five games, but two of those wins were overtime games that could have gone either way. A healthy Jameer Nelson might have made the difference.

Anderson Varejao is going to test the market.

The Cavs can go over the salary cap to sign Varejao, but he’s free to sign with any team. The Cavs will not be able to match any offer he gets.

Varejao was slated to make around $6.2 million next season, so there isn’t much risk here. Someone will give him a multi-year mid-level deal, so he should get the security of guaranteed money. There’s no guarantee that the Cavs will bring him back because it will be tough to play both he and Shaq at the same time.

Trevor Ariza’s agent, David Lee, says that the Lakers won’t get a hometown discount.

“It’s a question of how committed the Lakers are to competing again,” Lee said. “If everyone else stood still, you could see what happens when a piece is missing, but the reality is teams out there are positioning themselves to be competitive. When other teams are getting better, you can’t afford to rest on your laurels.”

“If you’re doing a one-year or two-year deal, you could have all sorts of conversations about the Artests or the Turkoglus,” Lee said, “but if you’re talking a five-year deal, Trevor’s going to be 28 and those guys are going to be 35.”

So if some other team offers Ariza a deal averaging $6.5 million per year and the Lakers make an offer that averages $6.3 million, Ariza won’t stay in L.A.? If he does, that would be the definition of a hometown discount. I think most players would agree to some sort of a discount to stay put (especially on a championship team in sunny Los Angeles), it’s just a matter of how much.

I think Ariza’s floor is the mid-level.

Andre Miller wants $30 million?

One source has said Miller will be seeking around $10 million a year, which is what he earned last season, and that he will more than likely desire a minimum contract length of three years.

Stefanski said a sign-and-trade was “a possibility.”

In layman’s terms: The Sixers are over the salary cap. If they do not re-sign Miller, they cannot offer his salary to another player on the free-agent market. Per NBA rules, the Sixers are allowed to re-sign their own guy.

The Blazers are supposedly interested, though I think $10 million per season is pretty steep for a 33 year-old, especially for a three-year deal. I estimated his value to be $6-$7 million per season, but I could see him signing for a bit more. My guess is that a lot of these guys are going to have to lower expectations once free agency begins.

Brandon Bass is hoping for the mid-level.

Bass will be seeking the mid-level exception. Because he has been with the Mavericks for two seasons, they can offer him any annual salary up to the exception without actually using their exception.

The mid-level is expected to be between $5 million and $5.5 million.

That seems fair, if a bit high. I pegged his value somewhere in the $4.5-$5.5 million per year range. I think Bass is a starter-quality power forward, and at 24, he has some upside.

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

2. Hedo Turkoglu, SF (30)
PER: 14.82
With the Magic’s trade for Vince Carter, and Turkoglu’s rumored demands for a five-year deal worth $50 million, the general consensus is that Hedo won’t be back in Orlando. I think the Magic would consider a three-year deal at around $8 million per season, but that would put the franchise in luxury tax territory for the foreseeable future. (It would also make them a contender, so it may be worth it.) The Blazers, Raptors and Kings are reportedly interested, but Toronto seems intent on re-signing Shawn Marion, so they may elect to go another direction. Still, at 30, he’s not going to be as effective in the last two years of the contract as he is in the first three, so a five-year deal may be asking too much.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

3. Ben Gordon, SG (26)
PER: 17.02
The Bulls reportedly want to re-sign Gordon, but the Pistons seem interested and have a rumored promise of $11 million per season. That seems steep for Gordon, who is undersized for an off guard, doesn’t always have the best shot selection and has a reputation for being a less than stellar defender. He is an outstanding shooter and scorer, and can carry a team at times with his offensive ability. Gordon may sign for over $10 million per season, but I have a gut feeling that he’s going to regret the decision to turn down two different extensions from the Bulls over the last two years.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

4. Ron Artest, F (29)
PER: 15.64
Artest played for $7.4 million last season, and I think his best bet for a contract that’s more than the MLE is with the Rockets. Don’t expect them to break the bank, as Daryl Morey knows that the Rockets probably won’t have much competition for Artest’s services. He brings a lot to the table, both good and bad. He’s not a great fit with any of the teams with significant cap space, so the Rockets might be able to lock him up to a three-year deal for a bit more than the MLE.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Trevor Ariza, SF (24)
PER: 15.51
Ariza really came on this season and was a big factor in the Lakers’ championship run. He averaged 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and shot an astounding 48% in the postseason. That, plus his stellar defense, is exactly what the Lakers need out of the small forward position, and all indications are that they’ll be able to re-sign him. I’d expect a MLE-type deal, because he’s unlikely to leave L.A. even if another team offers him a little more money. The Blazers and Kings could both make a run at him, but they would probably need to offer him $7 million or more per season to pry him away from L.A.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Jason Kidd, PG (36)
PER: 16.95
Barring a sign-and-trade, Portland and Atlanta are the only teams in the market for Kidd’s services that could offer him more than a mid-level deal. The general consensus is that he’ll re-sign with the Mavs, though at 36, I doubt Dallas gives him more than a two-year deal. I think Mark Cuban will do what it takes to keep Kidd in town, or else he’d have to deal with the ramifications that the Kidd-for-Devin Harris deal was a disaster. (He’s still in denial.)
Value: $7.5 – $8.5 million per year

7. Lamar Odom, F (29)
PER: 16.60
Odom has said in the past that he can’t imagine not living near the beach, so I don’t think that the Lakers have to come very strong to retain his services for another two or three years. Most of the teams with cap space could use him, but I think he’ll stay put. When he plays to his potential, his value is well over $10 million per season, but given his age and tendency to disappear for long stretches, I think the Lakers will get a hometown discount. I don’t see another team offering him enough to leave L.A.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

8. Shawn Marion, F (31)
PER: 16.02
The Raptors have said that they intend to re-sign the Matrix, and he played well for them when they went 9-4 down the stretch. His reputation of being a bit of a malcontent will work against him in this market, though he’s bound to sign for more than the mid-level. He still has two or three good seasons before his skills start to decline.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

9. Mehmet Okur, FC (30)
PER: 17.59
Okur has the option to play another year (for $9 million), but at press time, the feeling was that he was almost certain to opt out. He had a great year, averaging 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and shooting almost 45% from long range, and there are a number of teams — the Thunder, Pistons, Raptors and Kings — that could use him. He isn’t a good help defender, but he’s physical on the block and is a pretty good defensive rebounder. I think he’ll stick with the Jazz, but he’ll test the waters first.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

10. Andre Miller, PG (33)
PER: 18.71
Statistically speaking, Miller’s last two seasons were two of his best, and he proved that he’s not over the hill. He’d be a good fit with the Blazers, but so far there has been no confirmation of interest. The Hawks are another team that could use his leadership, and it looks like Mike Bibby may be on his way out of town. Besides those two teams, Miller’s best bet is to re-sign with the Sixers (who just drafted the raw Jrue Holiday) or take a mid-level deal with a contender in need of point guard help.
Value: $6.0 – $7.0 million per year

11. Rasheed Wallace, FC (34)
PER: 14.91
Wallace says he wants more than the mid-level, but I’m not sure that’s what the market is going to bear. He’ll likely sign with a contender, and other than the Blazers (and maybe the Hawks) all of the contenders are over the cap. That leaves two options: 1) a mid-level deal or 2) a sign-and-trade. At 34, it’s going to be interesting to see how long of a deal he gets, as his game looked to be on the decline last season.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

12. Allen Iverson, G (34)
PER: 15.89
AI is in a tough spot. He’s a former MVP that is at his best when his team is built around him — only his skills aren’t quite good enough to justify that. His move to Detroit was a disaster, so he hasn’t been able to prove that he’s willing to accept a lesser role to benefit his team. This makes him a very risky addition for a contender. I don’t see any of the teams with cap space rolling the dice, but will Iverson sign a mid-level deal? That might be his only option at this point.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

13. Mike Bibby, PG (31)
PER: 16.38
Bibby was better in his first full season with the Hawks, but Atlanta just traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, so Bibby’s stint in Atlanta is likely over. Portland could use his services, but there hasn’t been any indication out of the Pacific Northwest that that’s the case. He’s not much of a creator, so he’d be the best fit for a team that would ask him to knock down open shots (i.e. the Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Mavs). I think he’ll eventually sign for a playoff team at the MLE.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

14. Brandon Bass, PF (24)
PER: 16.49
Bass has performed well in limited minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki, but it might be time for a change of scenery. While his PER has been 16+ the last two seasons, he’s still pretty much flying under the radar. At just 24, he still has room to grow, and he’s already a solid offensive player. He’s probably a 14/7 guy as a starter, but he’s more likely going to join a contender at or near the mid-level and come off the bench.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

15. Chris Andersen, FC (31)
PER: 18.16
“The Birdman” brought great energy off the Denver bench and even outplayed Nene at times. I criticized the Nuggets for giving Marcus Camby away, but clearly it was Andersen that made it possible. At 31, he’s no spring chicken, but he’s certainly in line for a raise. He’s a great shotblocker and rebounder, and is decent when he’s asked to catch the ball and finish. But he isn’t particularly good as a post defender and has limited outside touch. He strikes me as another near mid-level guy.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

16. Anderson Varejao, FC (26)
PER: 14.62
Varejao is tough on the class and has the potential to be a hard-nosed defender, yet he spends a lot of time flopping to the floor looking for the call. His offensive game is non-existent (and isn’t improving), and as a liability on that end of the court, he’s not going to get the kind of contract he’s expecting. As Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, it’s going to be tough for the Cavs to play Shaq and Varejao at the same time, which makes him sort of expendable in Cleveland. They may re-sign him so that Shaq can get a game off from time to time, but I don’t think they’re going to meet his asking price. I don’t know that any of the teams with cap space would be willing to pay more than the mid-level for 6’11″ defender/rebounder with no discernible offensive game. Someone will offer him a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

Other notables: Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, Dahntay Jones, Antonio McDyess, Drew Gooden, Anthony Parker, Flip Murray, Stephon Marbury, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, Anthony Carter, Von Wafer, Marquis Daniels, Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams, Chris Wilcox, Desmond Mason, Matt Barnes

That wraps up the significant unrestricted free agent. Check back on Monday, when I’ll break down this summer’s group of restricted free agents.

Related content:

The Top Restricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010