2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

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Biggest injury concern: Orton, Turner, Brown or Benson?

Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

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Giants’ Lincecum wins second straight NL Cy Young

For the second straight year, San Francisco Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum was named the National League Cy Young award winner, earning 11 of 32 first-place votes. He just edged out Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter, who earned nine first-place votes and Carpenter’s teammate Adam Wainwright, who earned 12 first-place votes but only had 90 points (compared Lincecum’s 100 and Carpenter’s 94).

Lincecum led the NL with 261 strikeouts and also finished with four complete games and two shutouts. His 15-7 record wasn’t dazzling compred to Carpenter’s (17-4) or Wainwright’s (19-8), but he finished with a 2.48 ERA and the Giants didn’t have near the offense the Cardinals did.

Some St. Louis fans may complain about Lincecum winning this award and they certainly would have a case considering how good Carpenter and Wainwright were. (If either Carpenter or Wainwright won the award, it would be hard to debate they didn’t deserve it as well and it’s no wonder the voting was so close this year.) But if you watched Lincecum throughout the season, there wasn’t a more dominating pitcher in the National League.

On most nights, Giants’ pitchers were lucky if the offense scrapped together three runs. Every inning the pressure was on Lincecum and company to keep the runs to an absolute minimum and that’s exactly what he did. He was phenomenal.

No pitcher has ever won the Cy Young with only 15 victories. That means voters looked past the number of wins Lincecum had and saw what this kid did beyond the stat sheet. And while his recent bust for marijuana was unfortunate, it doesn’t taint what “The Freak” accomplished this season.


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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 11

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

Matt Schaub is coming off his bye and has a tasty matchup with a Tennessee defense that has given up an average of 270 yards and 2.6 pass TD per game…Eli Manning is also coming off his bye and has a date with an Atlanta defense that is 28th against the pass…The KC DT has been a little better versus QBs of late, but Ben Roethlisberger should still have a nice game. On the season, the Chiefs have given up an average of 234 yards and 1.6 pass TD per game…It’s tough to run on the Vikings, so look for Matt Hasselbeck to pass early and often to try to take advantage of Minnesota’s 23rd-ranked pass defense…The Giants have struggled against the pass of late, so Matt Ryan will have an opportunity to break out of his recent funk…Desperate? Miami has really struggled against the pass lately, so (gulp) Jake Delhomme should be able to post some good fantasy numbers.

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Browns considering signing LeBron James

…okay, not really. But LeBron did say recently that he could succeed in NFL if he put in the time and Browns head coach Eric Mangini has a helmet waiting for him if he ever wants to give it a try.

From ESPN.com:

“If I put all my time and commitment into it, if I dedicated myself to the game of football, I could be really good,” he said Tuesday night, “no matter what team I was on.”

Mangini agreed, calling James “a freak athletically” and said the 6-foot-8, 260-pounder could be dangerous at tight end, wide receiver or even outside linebacker.

Quarterback Brady Quinn also heard about James’ football fetish. He would love to have a target to throw to like James in the red zone.
“That’d be great,” Quinn said. “Tell him to suit up and let us know, we’ll get him working. Obviously he’s an incredibly talented athlete. If he wants to try to play a little bit now, we’d be more than willing to pick him up.”

Browns nose tackle Shaun Rogers isn’t convinced James, as great as he is, could step into the NFL and be able to handle the pounding.
“I heard that comment,” Rogers said. “I have mixed emotions about that. A great athlete? Yes. A football player? No.”

Rogers then looked into TV cameras.

“Yeah LeBron, I said it,” he said. “It’s a punishing game. I just don’t think you can step off the basketball court after not going through this year in and year out and just play football. From that standpoint, I just don’t think it’s possible. You have to weather and condition your body to take this punishment.”

That’s all the Cavs and the city of Cleveland needs: For LeBron hurt playing for a 1-8 Browns team going nowhere fast.

Given how gifted an athlete James is, I could see him succeeding in the NFL if he put in the time. But I agree with Rogers in that he couldn’t just step onto the field this Sunday and have an impact. For starters, he’s never run a pro route and he’s never read a defense. If he was told to just run straight down the field and then look for the ball, I could see him making a play or two. But he’d be lost if he were to start a game without practicing and I could only imagine him getting laid out going across the middle.

The front office for the Cavs would rather die than see this come to fruition, but I would love to see LeBron play for just one game to see how he’d do – even if it were just for a couple of plays.

Of course, that would require Brady Quinn to throw a pass longer than three yards in bounds, which is something I seriously doubt he could handle.

Royals’ Greinke wins 2009 AL Cy Young Award

According to MLB.com, Kansas City Royals’ ace Zach Greinke was named the American League’s Cy Young Award winner on Tuesday after receiving 25 of 28 first-place votes.

I know Mariners ace Felix Hernandez was just as a good, but Greinke deserved this achievement. He was the most dominant pitcher in the American League, posting a league-best 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He also struck out 242 batters and finished the year with six complete games.

Greinke also figured out a way to post a 16-8 record on a bad team that didn’t give him much run support or defensive help. Of course, the same could be said for King Felix, who had even less of an offense backing him up, but don’t forget that Greinke also had six no-decisions in which he allowed two runs or less. Two runs or less! That means had Kansas City scored just three runs in those games, he would have easily cleared the 20-win mark.

I would love to see what the 26-year old could do on a competitor, but Royal fans have suffered enough throughout the years and deserve to watch Greinke pitch every five days.


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Bills fire head coach Dick Jauron

According to NFL.com, the Buffalo Bills have fired head coach Dick Jauron after starting the season 3-6.

Defensive coordinator Fewell Perry is expected to become the Bills’ interim head coach, a Bills source told NFL.com’s Vic Carucci.

In just short of four seasons with the Bills, Jauron compiled a record of 24-33 (.421 winning percentage). The Bills failed to make the playoffs in each season under Jauron. Buffalo has not made the playoffs since 1999, the longest active streak for a non-expansion team.
On Monday, defensive end Aaron Schobel questioned the Bills’ lack of direction with seven games remaining in their season.

“It’s embarrassing,” said Schobel, the longest-tenured player on the Bills roster, a day after a 41-17 loss at Tennessee dropped Buffalo’s record to 3-6. “I mean, we’re technically, mathematically still in it, I guess, but it’s like what … are we doing here?”

Speaking within earshot of several Bills officials near the entrance of the locker room, Schobel expressed his frustration, but stopped short in explaining what he thinks the franchise’s problems are by saying: “That’s about all I can say without saying what I want to say.”

Terrell Owens posted this on his Twitter page roughly about the same time the news broke:

Wassup everytweeter? It’s a beautiful day n the neighborhood here n good ‘ol Buffalo!

Now, that could be a genuine statement by T.O. but then again I don’t know how many beautiful days there are in Buffalo in the middle of November. So my guess is that Owens is a fan of this news.

Jauron did nothing to help the Bills succeed over the past couple years and it was painfully obviously that he wasn’t moving the team in the right direction. They got off to a hot start last year but fell apart shortly thereafter because opponents started to figure out ways to stop Trent Edwards (which isn’t hard) and Jauron and his coaching staff never made adjustments.

I’m sure he’ll catch on as a coordinator or assistant somewhere next year, but he’s likely done as a head coach at the NFL level.

The Bills are similar to the Browns in that they need a complete makeover, starting with the front office down to the players. I highly doubt Perry Fewell is the answer, which means Ralph Wilson needs to get to work on finding a permanent replacement in the offseason.


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Week 10 NFL Cheerleader Photos

More after the jump…

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 11

Be sure to check out Week 10’s Fantasy Fallout and our Waiver Wire Watch. Still have questions? Fire away, but be sure to tell me about your league’s roster requirements and whether or not you’re in a PPR league.

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 11

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Alex Smith (17.0)
Of this group, I’d still take Smith first despite a bad outing against a suspect Bears secondary. He has a great upcoming schedule and has a few good options in the passing game in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.
Vince Young (6.6)
Young has been very solid of late, and with the Texans and Cardinals up next, he has a chance to post decent fantasy numbers.
Mark Sanchez (46.4)
The rookie has been pretty good over the last three weeks, but with the Pats and Panthers up next, that may not last.
Jason Campbell (19.2)
Matthew Stafford (5.8)
Marc Bulger (3.7)
Josh Freeman (3.4)
Chad Henne (5.2)

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