This is how I know nobody has a clue about what will happen in the NFL:

Green Bay Packers 17, Dallas Cowboys 7.

Unless you’re a Packer slappy, you couldn’t possibly have expected that outcome today; there’s just no way. Dallas had won four in a row, was coming off an impressive road win at Philadelphia and was playing with a ton of confidence. Green Bay, on the other hand, had not beaten a team with a winning record all season and had lost to the previously winless Buccaneers last week in one of the ugliest losses for any team this season.

Granted, some could say that this was a letdown game for the Cowboys after beating the Eagles last week, but it’s not like the Packers are the Browns or Rams; Dallas shouldn’t have had any problem getting up for this game today.

Nevertheless, the Packers’ defense played one hell of a game by completely shutting down a Dallas offense that had been firing on all cylinders entering the game. Green Bay forced three turnovers, held the Cowboys to only 61 rushing yards and sacked Tony Romo five times. It was a dominating effort by Dom Capers’ defense tonight that was embarrassed last week in Tampa. The Packers’ O-line still tried their best to get Aaron Rodgers killed, but Green Bay will certainly take a win, especially after the team held a players-only meeting earlier this week in an effort to try and clear the air.

Since the Eagles also lost today, this won’t set the Cowboys back in the standings but it is alarming that Green Bay was able to shut down Dallas’ offense so easily. I mean, this was the same Packers defense that gave up 38 points last week to the Buccaneers, who were starting a rookie quarterback in Josh Freeman.

Maybe this was just an off day for Wade Phillips’ team. They better hope so anyway.

With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

- CAN’T STOP THE BLEEDING has video of Joakim Noah enjoying the scene as former hater Rick Morrissey (who claimed two years ago that Noah would be a bust) literally eats his words.

- NESW SPORTS has video of Bill Simmons’s appearance on Jimmy Kimmel.

- Over on BLEACHER REPORT, “Jersey Al Bracco” rips into Mike McCarthy for giving the beat reports the same old platitudes after the Packers’ embarrassing loss to the then 0-7 Bucs last week.

- THE BIG LEAD discusses statistical guru Nate Silver’s plan to try to predict the winner of the World Cup.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS has video of a WGN reporter dunking and talking trash to a little kid. The kid starts crying. Nice.

- FANHOUSE explains how those refs at the LSU/Alabama game could not see that Patrick Peterson’s feet were indeed inbounds. The televisions that they use to review plays are not in HD. Seriously.

Once Brett Favre signed with the Vikings and the Bears acquired Jay Cutler this offseason, pundits couldn’t help but to gush over how good the NFC North Division would be.

But now that nine weeks are in the books, it’s clear that the NFC North is the most overrated division in football.

With Favre under center, the Vikings have been as good as advertised this season. But the Bears were crushed 41-21 at home by the Cardinals on Sunday and the Packers lost 38-28 to the freaking winless Buccaneers and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman, who was making his first career start.

Turnovers killed Green Bay today in Tampa. The Packers managed to rack up 404 yards of total offense, 170 yards on the ground (Ryan Grant was effective) and also held the Bucs to just 81 rushing yards of their own. But Aaron Rodgers was intercepted three times, including once with time ticking down in the fourth to seal Green Bay’s fate. (Tanard Jackson returned the interception 35 yards for a touchdown to put Tampa Bay up for good at 38-28.)

Somehow, the Packers allowed Freeman to throw three touchdown passes without much threat of a running game. Freeman was far from perfect as he threw an interception, struggled with his accuracy and fumbled a snap (which was recovered by Tampa). But he was solid in the second half, showed nice poise for being a rookie and bought extra time for himself while scrambling out of trouble. Head coach Raheem Morris said his rookie signal caller was ready to play coming into the game and it showed.

The Packers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong when I said in the preseason that they were Super Bowl contenders. They haven’t been able to overcome the injuries on the offensive line and the defense has been inconsistent. Rodgers wasn’t great today, but for the most part he has kept his team in games on his own by buying himself extra time to find open receivers.

Green Bay’s schedule is tougher in the second half than it was in the first. This is an 8-8 team at best and so are the Bears (if that). That’s not exactly what most pundits had in mind when they were talking up the NFC North in preseason.

The one guy we were neglecting so far was Minnesota’s Percy Harvin, who has slowly and quietly started to put up numbers and become a favorite target of Brett Favre. This is a guy Brad Childress took a big gamble on that so far is paying off. But Byrd and Laurinaitis are holding strong.

1. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—Two more picks for this safety out of Oregon against the Texans, and now Byrd is tied with Darren Sharper for the NFL lead. That’s amazing in itself, but consider which team this guy plays for and it’s even more remarkable.

2. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—Seven more tackles against Detroit…okay, we know, it’s Detroit….still, what Byrd has done to this point is slightly more impressive.

3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—Becoming a favorite target of Brett Favre, caught 5 more passes for 84 yards and a score in Green Bay.

4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—Filled in quite admirably for Brian Westbrook Sunday, slicing through a suddenly sieve-like Giants’ defense.

5. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—Everyone on the Eagles had a field day against the Giants, this rookie included (4 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD).

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Knowshon Moreno, Broncos; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens; Mike Wallace, Steelers

The race for MVP rages on at the midway point of the season, and it’s loaded with QBs, for good reason. Brees, Manning and Favre have a combined record of 21-1 and show no signs of slowing down. So we’ll give them their due, for now. Things are going to get mighty interesting, though, in the coming weeks as races get tighter and become closer to being decided, including this race for NFL MVP…..

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Their games are getting tighter, but it’s not like the Saints just beat a bad Falcons team on Monday night. That was a tough divisional match up and the Saints just keep, you know, marching…oh, forget it.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—No TDs against the Niners, but Manning still had a Week 8 best of 347 yards. Plus, the Colts remain undefeated.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—Okay, forget that one blemish against Pittsburgh. After another strong showing against his former team, Favre has now thrown for 1925 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 picks. And his team is 7-1. Raise your hand if you expected that kind of success.

4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Three more sacks against the Packers. Jon Gruden talked about Allen having a “motor that never stops,” and that’s pretty spot on. Allen is not just playing like defensive player of the year, he’s making a strong case for MVP.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—Sorry Cedric, but while you were on bye, Favre and Allen terrorized the Packers, and Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew racked up a bunch of yards and TDs. We’ll hold you a spot, but let’s see how you do against the Ravens this week.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Matt Schaub, Texans

Over on FanHouse, Packer fan Bruce Ciskie discusses “The Case Against Mike McCarthy.”

In the end, however, the biggest issue with McCarthy — and one that could cost him his job come January if he’s not careful — is discipline.

The Packers have become a penalty-plagued team during his time. In 2005, the final year under Mike Sherman, Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in penalties assessed. McCarthy’s first year actually saw them improve, as they were near the upper third of the league in fewest penalties. However, the 2007 team — one that finished 13-3 — was fourth in the NFL in penalties, finishing second in penalty yards. The Packers were second in penalties and first in yards marked off in 2008. 2009 isn’t looking too much better. So far, they’re second in total penalties and third in yards.

Virtually every Monday when he addresses the media, McCarthy talks about how they’re going to fix the penalty problem, and the special teams problem. Then, almost on cue, the same issues plague this team every Sunday.

Penalties can be so frustrating. The Packers have all (or at least most) of the pieces necessary for a great offense, yet time and time again they find themselves backed up due to a holding penalty or some other mind-numbing infraction. In McCarthy’s defense, his team is young, but at some point the light has to go on and the number of penalties has to go down.

It should be noted that the offense has the second-most penalties in the league, but the defense is actually 26th in that category. Why the disparity? It probably has to do with the Packer offensive line and how it has been in a state of flux since Ted Thompson arrived.

One of the first things that Thompson did when he took over in Green Bay was to let guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera walk in free agency. Financially, this was probably a good decision, but from a continuity standpoint, it’s tough to overcome the loss of two experienced vets. The Packer O-line was a strength before Thompson arrived and now it’s probably the team’s biggest weakness.

But back to McCarthy. My problem with the Packers is how they oftentimes come out flat and/or sloppy. The first half of Sunday’s game is a great example. Suddenly, in the second half, the offense is on fire. Some might say that McCarthy deserves credit for giving an inspiring halftime speech or orchestrating the necessary adjustments, but where was that passion and preparation at the start the game?

There’s no doubt that this team has enough talent to make the playoffs, and with a 4-3 record and a relatively weak schedule, they are in good position to do so. As long as they keep winning the games they should win (TB, DET and SEA) and split the remaining six games (DAL, SF, BAL, CHI, PIT and ARI), they’ll finish with 10 wins and a probable wild card berth.

But with the team’s discipline, O-line and special teams problems, it’s entirely possible that they miss the postseason. If that happens, the franchise should consider finding someone else to lead the way.

According to a report by ESPN.com, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is hurting after Green Bay’s loss to the Vikings on Sunday, but expects to play this week with a sprain on one foot and a sprained toe on the other.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy says Rodgers could miss time in practice this week but is expected to play Sunday at Tampa Bay without hurting his mobility.

It’s been a long year for Rodgers. He has been sacked 31 times overall — worst in the NFL — including six by Minnesota on Sunday.
Rodgers was limping after the game but said he expected to be OK after a few days.

I’ve gained a lot of respect for Rodgers this season. The kid has been running for his life all year because of the Packers’ O-line issues and yet he’s never complained. And despite Jared Allen treating him like a rag doll, Rodgers has never once thrown one of his teammates under the bus.

I know he hasn’t proven that he can be a consistent winner, but I like Rodgers and think he could be a damn good player in the NFL.

Brett Favre told SI.com’s Peter King that he wasn’t sure if he was going to be able to play against the Packers yesterday because of a groin injury. Favre claims he suffered the injury last week in practice and then re-aggravated it in pregame warm-ups.

“I told T-Jack [backup Tarvaris Jackson] and [offensive coordinator] Darrell Bevell I may not be able to do it,” he said. “I didn’t know if I’d be able to drop back very well. After I aggravated it, there was no way I was going to be able to move around in the pocket very much. We never called one bootleg the whole game. But we made it through OK.”

And now, I wondered, how was the groin four hours and a lot of lost adrenalin later?

“It’s throbbing right now,” he said.

Oh…come…on. Look, I don’t doubt that Favre injured himself in practice (he is 60 years old after all) and then re-injured himself during pregame warm-ups. I also don’t doubt that he told Jackson and Bevell that he was hurt and might not be able to play.

But I don’t buy for a minute that he was going to hold himself out. He wasn’t going to allow a groin injury to get in the way of beating the Packers at Lambeau and if anything, I’m willing to bet that he wanted people to know that he was hurt just so he could build the moment up even more.

Some are going to look at this as the “gritty” Brett playing through pain; I’m sure ESPN is already salivating thinking about the story. But I think this guy has a lot of people fooled.

Maybe I’m being to cynical and over thinking this, but it’s Brett’s comments that bug me the most. If King asked him how he was feeling and Brett said, “Well Pistol Pete, I’m a little sore because of a groin injury I suffered last week,” then I wouldn’t question him because the comment would have been more fly-by.

But no, Brett made damn sure to note that he might not have been able to play. To me, that’s just another prima donna move by one of the more underrated prima donna athletes of all-time.

The Vikings’ 38-26 win over the Packers wasn’t even an hour old yet and I got an e-mail from my partner in crime here at The Scores Report, John Pauslen, who happens to be a huge Green Bay fan and is/was an active Brett Favre supporter.

I won’t share what John wrote in case there are women and children reading, but he wasn’t kind to Brett. And I can’t imagine that John is the only one who feels angry with Favre after what transpired on Sunday.

Brett walked into Lambeau Field, a place where he was known for being a legend, a hero and an icon, and essentially burned the place down. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns, while also spending most of the game pumping his fists wildly in celebration of his accomplishments.

Many people still want to blame Ted Thompson for why Favre currently wears purple and white. But the fact of the matter is that there are 32 teams in the NFL and he wanted to be a Viking. If he just wanted to play football, he could have returned to the Jets. Hell, if he wanted to play football, he could have returned to the Packers two years ago because they said yes to him twice. It was the one “no” that has fans blaming Thompson, yet they should blame Favre for his indecisiveness and his desire to play in Minnesota before blaming the GM that eventually committed to Aaron Rodgers and decided to move forward.

I hope that Brett is satisfied with the outcome from today, because while he once again got his revenge on Thompson and the Packers, he also torched a lot of loyal Green Bay fans in the process. There will always be people that player worship and will root for Favre no matter what color jersey he wears, but there no doubt are many who watched the game today and said, “You know what? To hell with Brett Favre.”

The funny thing is, Brett’s true fans will always be in Green Bay. Unless he helps the Vikings win a Super Bowl, Minnesota fans will forget about him the moment he’s done playing for them and you’re kidding yourself if you think otherwise. So while he may feel good about the way things have transpired so far this season, he’s hurting his legacy in the long run by accomplishing exactly what he wanted in beating the Packers.

Was it worth it, Brett?