Last week we looked at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks from 2008 with a look toward 2009. This week, it’s about those who catch passes. Wide receivers have become almost as valuable as running backs, so it’s important not to overlook that when you’re preparing for your fantasy draft. And you are preparing, right? Or will you cram on Labor Day weekend? If you’re like me, you’re reading this stuff now because these long months without football suck. So, about those receivers….and keep in mind this Top 10 is based on scoring from one of my own fantasy leagues, and stats may differ from league to league:
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals—There should be no question remaining as to who has the best hands in football. In fact, I’ll just say it — that Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football, and one of the best since the days of (dare I say it) Jerry Rice, or Lynn Swann. Yeah, he’s that good, and he’s just getting started. In ’08, Fitzgerald had 96 catches for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns….and that’s with Kurt Warner having two other legitimate targets in Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions—This poor bastard put up huge numbers last year for an 0-16 team—78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 scores. It’s difficult to draft anyone on the Lions, though.
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans—This guy is just a beast. I mean, a freaking beast. Johnson had SIX games of over 130 receiving yards, and wound up with 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 TDs…all usually with two guys covering him. Like I said, a beast. Now what would he do with a real QB?
4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals—Q wants the ball, and he may not get it in Arizona this season. But his numbers and skills have every other GM salivating. Last year, despite missing four games with injuries, Boldin caught 89 passes for 1038 yards and 11 scores. He even rushed 9 times for 67 yards.
5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers—Jennings has been on the verge of fantasy superstardom for a few years now, and I think the next two seasons may be peak years for him — especially with Aaron Rodgers coming into his own and Donald Driver losing a step or two. His 2008 numbers? 80 catches for 1292 yards and 8 touchdowns. This year, I’m saying 100-1500-12.
6. Randy Moss, New England Patriots—The fact that Moss still had a 1000-yard season catching passes from the yet-unproven Matt Cassel says a lot about Moss. Dude is a sick receiver. He had just four 100-yard games, but was consistent over the season with 69 receptions for 1008 yards and 11 TDs. He gets his boy Brady back in 2009, so look for 2007-ish numbers again.
7. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys—He had one game over 200 yards, one more over 100, and every other game below 100. Owens managed 1052 yards on 69 catches with 10 scores, but by his standards the season was a bust. In Buffalo, I can’t imagine his numbers will be much better.
8. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints—Marques Colston was never quite right after coming back from an injury, but Drew Brees kept throwing the ball to this guy, to the tune of 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns—with three 100-yard games.
9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers—He was suspended for the first two games in 2008, but still racked up 1421 yards on 78 catches with 6 scores…and a whopping eight 100-yard games. Steve Smith is just money, and he should be a Top 5 receiver in every fantasy league.
10. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs—Bryant had his best season as a pro last year after missing the entire 2007 campaign, catching 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs…and he gets bonus points for doing it with the Tampa Bay Bucs!
Remember when we were instructed to draft running backs with our first two, and in some cases, our first four, fantasy football picks? Yeah, that was so 1999. Heck, that was so 2004 or 2005 when LT and Shaun Alexander were dominating the gridiron. But a funny thing has happened. Running backs by committee are not only keeping legs fresh, they are wreaking havoc on fantasy rosters. Also, a recent trend toward pass-happy offenses is making quarterbacks and receivers more valuable. Last season, QBs were dominating — here is how the Top 10 QBs finished fantasy-wise in 2008 (your league may have scored differently than mine) and what you can expect from them in 2009:
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Brees fell 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record, finishing with 5069 yards, along with 34 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Is he going to match that? There’s no reason to believe he won’t.
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—I had LT last year and one of the reasons his stats suffered was because this guy kept throwing the damn ball. Rivers threw for 4009 yards with 34 TDs and just 11 picks. This year, will they go back to more of a run-first offense? Probably not — not with LT a year older.
3. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals—Ah, the Fountain of Youth is a beautiful thing. Warner drank from it often, and of course when you have guys named Boldin and Fitzgerald to throw to, it can make you look good and feel ten years younger. Still, who expected 4582 yards and 30 touchdowns with 14 picks and a trip to the Super Bowl? Not me. This year, Warner may not have Boldin, who just keeps whining about his contract, but don’t think the QB’s numbers will suffer all that much.
4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Brett who? You certainly won’t hear anyone blaming the Packers’ 6-10 season on Rodgers. It was in fact their defense that failed them, because Rodgers passed for 4038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions. And just for kicks, Favre’s numbers with the Jets were 3472 yards, but 22 TDs and league leading 22 picks. Going into 2009, Rodgers’ stock has to be even higher.
5. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos—On what planet does 4526 yards and 25 touchdown passes get you run out of town? In Denver, where new coach Josh McDaniel screwed up and tried to trade for Matt Cassel. Oops. Cutler is now in Chicago, so that means his fantasy stock automatically drops a few notches.
6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—The Colts got off to a horrible start and in fact didn’t win the division for the first time in years. But Manning finished strong, with 4002 yards, 27 TDs and just 12 picks. Marvin Harrison is no longer catching his passes, but that doesn’t mean Manning doesn’t have weapons.
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles—It was a roller coaster season in 2008, but the Eagles came within about a quarter of reaching the Super Bowl. Somehow McNabb held it together (what, they have ties in the NFL?) and wound up having a great season, passing for 3916 yards with 23 TD passes and 11 picks. He only had 147 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores, but that’s what Philly has Brian Westbrook for. McNabb is getting long in the tooth, but he’s smarter and as accurate as ever.
8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys—Okay, so there may be trouble in paradise and there is no T.O. anymore, but Romo is still a very good fantasy QB. His 3448 yards and 26 TDs were a bit off his 2007 pace (4211, 36 TDs), but part of that is because he missed a few games with a thumb injury.
9. Matt Cassel, New England Patriots—With zero pro experience and almost zero college experience, who would have thought Matt Cassel could come in for Tom Brady and have the season he did? Okay, so he is no Brady, but Brady is in a class of his own anyway. Cassel’s 3490 yards with 21 TD passes and just 10 interceptions were good enough to land him the starting job in Kansas City. How that will affect his fantasy stats remains to be seen, but don’t expect too much of a drop-off on an improved Chiefs’ team.
10. Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins—You know Chad is still gloating after being pushed out of New York by Brett Favre, and then leading his Dolphins to the division title. Pennington is always risky as a fantasy QB because of injuries and inconsistency, but 3653 yards and 19 TDs is not shabby, nor was his microscopic total of 7 picks. If he stays healthy, Chad should have another good season.
The other name you’ll have to consider in 2009 is Brady. He missed the final 15 ¾ of the season after getting knocked out of the opener against Kansas City, but early reports are that Brady is looking and feeling great and will be at full strength in 2009. Randy Moss is salivating, and so will fantasy owners, though they will do so skeptically.
Are you ready for some football? I know I am and feel great just talking about it!
Packers wide receiver Donald Driver skipped the team’s OTA session on Thursday, apparently because he’s unhappy about his contract.
Receiver Donald Driver also skipped the OTA session, and the Wisconsin State Journal reported that Driver wants the team to redo his contract.
Driver, 34, has two years left on his contract and is due to be paid base salaries of $3.9 million this season and $4 million next season. The report said this is the fourth straight year that Driver has approached the team about reworking his contract. Driver’s agent, Jordan Woy, did not return messages.
Driver is certainly getting up there in age, but he’s always been one of the most underrated players in the league. This might be an interesting story to follow this summer, although given how Driver is the consummate professional, I highly doubt he would hurt the team in any way by holding out.
Hopefully for Packer fans the situation gets resolved, because Driver and Greg Jennings continue to be a solid 1-2 receiving combo.
My colleague (and inspiration according to him) John Paulsen did a great job of highlighting the impact that this year’s offensive rookie class could have in terms of fantasy football, so I thought it would only be appropriate to show some love to the defensive rooks.
I’ve ranked the 10 rookies who I feel could make the biggest impact for their teams in 2009. This doesn’t mean that I think they’ll put up gaudy numbers, although they could. These rankings are more of a reflection of how I feel each rookie fits into their specific defensive scheme and what teams can expect in terms of overall production from these players in their first season.
Side Note: I stuck to only the defensive players that were drafted in the first two rounds. While plenty of mid-round picks have started and were successful in their rookie seasons, it’s a little hard to project at this point which third and fourth rounders could have an impact with training camps still a month or so away. Maybe I’ll re-visit this topic once again before the season starts and dedicate another piece to the mid-rounders that could have an immediate impact.
1. Aaron Curry, LB, Seahawks
Curry might not have been the first defensive player to come off the board in April (that honor went to LSU’s Tyson Jackson, who was selected with the third overall by the Chiefs), but he was the best defender that the 2009 draft class had to offer. Curry has the ability to play all three linebacker positions in a 4-3, although he’ll likely start on the strong side, allowing the Hawks to keep LeRoy Hill at weakside ‘backer. Curry has outstanding speed (4.5), size (6’2”, 254 pounds) and can stay on the field in passing situations, unlike some linebackers, who are often replaced in nickel packages because they can’t hang with backs, tight ends and receivers. Curry isn’t one of those situational prospects – he’s a complete player and should make a significant impact in his first year.
NFL sources are telling New York Daily News football columnist Gary Myers that Brett Favre cannot peacefully retire until he gains his revenge on the Green Bay Packers. He wants back into the NFC North Division in order to play the Packers twice next season. Favre wants to play well and show them that it was mistake in trading him away last season.
Myers is connecting the dots and seeing where this may lead:
• Favre retired in February, but the New York Jets refused his request to release him, wanting to keep his rights in the event he changed his mind and wanted to play again - he is prone to flip-flop, of course - and Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff stunk up their new $75 million practice facility in the offseason.
• The Jets traded up to get Mark Sanchez in the draft last weekend and the text-messaging between GM Mike Tannenbaum and Favre intensified. Favre still wanted to completely cut his contractual ties with the Jets. Three days later, the Jets released him. Sources say Favre, who will be 40 in October, wants to keep his options open. Favre released a statement saying, “At this time, I am retired and have no intention of returning to football.”
The three key words: “At this time.”
• The Minnesota Vikings are a quarterback short of being a Super Bowl contender, and they need to sell tickets and have been trying for years to get a new stadium.
Favre’s bitterness is creating this scenario, and he has authorized his agent to indirectly contact the Vikings about playing for them next season. Media reports from Minnesota have reported that the Vikings have had internal discussions about adding Favre to the roster. And many in the NFL believe that we haven’t seen the last of him on a football field. As long as a team is willing to give him a roster spot, Favre will play.
Regular readers know that Anthony Stalter is our NFL guru and that I’m a huge Packer fan. And since Green Bay’s general manager, Ted Thompson, made one of the more questionable trades of the day — giving up a second round pick and two third round picks to move up and select USC linebacker Clay Matthews — we thought it would be interesting to have Anthony play general manager for those three picks and see if things would have turned out better had the Packers stood pat (and drafted on Anthony’s recommendations). So Anthony is going to pick players at 2.09, 3.09 and 3.19 (the three picks Thompson gave up for Matthews) and see if he can do any better.
But to give up their second round pick and two third round selections was just too much – especially considering Matthews could be one of the more overrated prospects in this draft. Some believe that he’s more of a bodybuilder posing as a football player (i.e. he looks great in workouts but could fizzle once he gets onto the field) and his character has come into question after it was made public that he and fellow USC teammates started a Facebook group called, “White Nation,” in which they posted a picture of an African American baby in handcuffs and had a caption underneath that read, “arrest black babies before they become criminals.” He claims it was just a joke and maybe he will turn out to be a versatile pro. But the trade and selection were very un-Ted Thompson-like for draft day.
We’ll revisit this after each of the next three seasons (unless the winner becomes obvious before then) and see how the two strategies compare. In the interests of fairness, I asked Anthony to make his pick at 2.09 without thinking about who slipped to 3.09 or 3.19.
I’m going to channel my inner Peter King and dole out a crap load of quick-hit thoughts on last weekend’s NFL draft, which by the way, was one of the more unpredictable drafts I have ever witnessed.
Below are 65 observations from the 2009 NFL Draft. Why 65? I don’t know – don’t worry about it. Originally I came up with 62, but I know that some people freak out when things aren’t in round numbers, so I added three more. But the number 65 means nothing, so don’t waste time searching for its meaning.
Obviously these are all my opinions and feel free to debate them. But before you do, I already know that it supposedly takes three seasons to fully grade a draft and that no prospect is a sure thing. Again, I’m projecting here – so lighten up and let’s strike up some good debates.
1. Outside of the fact that he’s now a millionaire and could buy a small country, I kind of feel bad for Matthew Stafford. You know some halfwit fan or media member can’t wait to utter the comment, “For $72 million, he should have made that pass.” I hate the fact that money plays such a huge role in sports because when you get down to it, completing a pass, making a catch or kicking a field goal has nothing to do with how many zeros are on your paycheck.
2. I know I’m not saying anything new here, but the rookie salary structure is a joke. When teams don’t even want a top 5 pick anymore because of the financial burden that comes with it, there’s a huge problem.
3. The kid could turn out to be the next Ryan Leaf on the field, but Lion fans have to at least take comfort in the fact that Matthew Stafford is saying all the right things at this point. He did an interview with the NFL Network on Sunday and he talked about how he wants to be a starter right away, but also wants to learn and be patient in his development. From all accounts, he looks like he has a great head on his shoulders.
4. If Tyson Jackson turns out to be the next Richard Seymour like Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli believes, then nobody is going to remember (or care) that he was taken with the third overall pick in a weak draft class.
It’s unfair to criticize a team for reaching on a prospect or making a trade (or two) on draft day because obviously nobody has a crystal ball to see how those moves will inevitably pan out. But it’s hard not to question some of the decisions that teams made during the first two rounds of the draft on Saturday. Below I’ve compiled five questionable decisions from Day 1 of the NFL draft.
1 and 2. Broncos trade their 2010 first round selection to the Seahawks for their second round pick (37th overall); Panthers trade their 2010 first round selection to the 49ers for their second round pick (43rd overall)
I have no qualms with the two prospects that the Broncos and Panthers traded for. Denver got arguably the most underrated cornerback in the draft in Alphonso Smith, while Carolina landed a player in Everrette Brown who many believed would go in the top 15. But it’s hard to fathom why both of these teams would give up first rounders in next year’s draft, to trade up in what some are considering the worst draft in some time. Granted, it’s hard to speculate whether or not this draft will be turn out to be horrible or if next year’s draft will be strong. But there’s a good chance that Denver and Carolina could each be picking in the top 15 or 20 picks again next year and to give up those picks for two second round prospects is highly questionable. What happens if either of these teams implodes next year and the picks they gave up turn out to be top 5 or top 10 selections? That’s just too much of a risk in my opinion.
As the NFL draft rolls on over the next two days, I’ll post picks, thoughts and stay on top of any rumors that I hear and post them here. Enjoy.
2:55PM ET: Mike Mayock of the NFL Network claims that his “cell phone is blowing up” with reports that the Jets are trying to trade up to No. 2 for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.
3:19PM ET: According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Dolphins will select Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 25.
3:22PM ET: The Rams could trade back into the first round for middle linebacker Rey Maualuga according to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche.
3:38PM ET: I’m shocked the Chiefs passed on Aaron Curry, but all the pre-draft rumors that said Tyson Jackson would be their pick were obviously dead on. Jackson is the best 3-4 end in the draft and obvious was a commodity.
3:40PM ET: The Browns got exactly what they wanted with this trade. They weren’t in love with anyone at No.5 and managed to trade out. Great move - I wonder what kind of ransom the Browns got.
3:42PM ET: Mike Mayock just made a great point about the Jets trading up to No. 5. What team did they want to get ahead of to go all the way up to No. 5?
3:45PM ET: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam No. 17 and No. 57. A sleeper in this deal is Elam, who is one of the more promising safeties in the draft.
3:52PM ET: The Bengals select OT Andre Smith - another low character guy for their low-character roster. He is a tremendous talent, but he comes with a ton of baggage.
This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.
I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)
The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!
Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.
The NFL released the 2009 NFL Schedule today, so I’ll do what the 4,000 other websites do and list some of the more juicier matchups of the year. (Although in the sake of being at least a little creative, I’ll list one interesting matchup for each of the 17 weeks on the schedule.)
Before we get to the matchups though, let me state for the record that it’s a complete farce that the Cowboys get six nationally televised games next year despite not making the playoffs last season. I guess “America’s Team” opening a brand new stadium is worth major national exposure…six times a year.
Week 1: Bears at Packers, 8:20PM ET
Jay Cutler’s first game in a Bears uniform will be at Lambeau against the rival Packers on Sunday Night Football. How much will John Madden overplay the, “The Bears finally have a quarterback” angle after every pass Cutler completes?
Week 2: Giants at Cowboys, 8:20PM ET
One of the ‘Boys six nationally televised games, Dallas will open up their new stadium against division rival New York on Sunday Night Football. How much will John Madden overplay the, “Tony Romo and Wade Phillips must win now because Jerry Jones built this brand new stadium and he wants a contender” angle?
Week 3: Falcons at Patriots, 1:00PM ET
The over/under on the number of times Matt Ryan is compared to Tom Brady in this game has officially been set at 800,994,990.
Week 4: Chargers at Steelers, 8:20PM ET
AFC Divisional Round rematch in Pittsburgh – let’s see if the Chargers can hold onto the ball for more than 17 seconds in the third quarter unlike the last time these two teams met.
Week 5: Patriots at Broncos, 4:15PM ET
If Bill Belichick shakes Josh McDaniels’ hand at midfield after this game, I’m calling shenanigans on the behalf of Eric Mangini.
Week 6: Bears at Falcons, 8:20PM ET
Here’s hoping the Bears’ secondary figured out that they have to cover the out pattern when that’s the only route Matt Ryan can look for when there’s 11 seconds on the clock and he needs to get his team into field goal range.
In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.
But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.
Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human - I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.
In one day, the Bears seemingly addressed their 20-year old quarterback problem and also added a significant piece to their offensive line. In one day, the Bears might have gone from a .500 team to the perennial favorites in the NFC North.
It’s way too early to be getting into predictions for the 2009 NFL Season. Voluntary workouts have begun, but the draft is still weeks away and teams are still trying to reshape their rosters.
But with the trade acquisition of Jay Cutler and the signing of left tackle Orlando Pace, the Bears significantly upgraded their offense and hopefully made current players like Matt Forte, Devin Hester, Frank Omiyale and Chris Williams better.
Make no mistake – Chicago is far from a Super Bowl contender. They still need to upgrade their wide receiver position, could use another defensive end to throw in the mix with Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson, and even though they signed Josh Bullocks this offseason, they could still use an upgrade at safety as well.
But while every team in the division has arguably gotten weaker, the Bears have upgraded. The Vikings are still pretty strong, but they lost long-time center Matt Birk and still have questions to be answered at quarterback. The Packers are planning to run a 3-4 defense next season, but have done next to nothing to add true 3-4 personnel and the Lions will continue to take a sandblaster to their entire roster.
YAHOO! Sports.com suggests that the Packers could trade defensive end/outside linebacker Aaron Kampan.
7. Green Bay defensive end Aaron Kampman – This is going to be considered heresy by some Packers fans, particularly since Kampman recorded 37 sacks over the past three seasons. However, in switching to the 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Packers have put in a system where Kampman is going to be extremely limited. In short, Kampman is a high-motor athlete who operates best when he can attack a right offensive tackle from a three-point stance, using his initial burst and knowledge of hand techniques. When the Packers put Kampman out farther on the edge in a 3-4, his skills will be diminished. Furthermore, he’s never dropped into coverage on a regular basis, so that’s going to be a shock. Unless the Packers find a way to highlight Kampman’s strengths in some other way, he just doesn’t work in this system.
Considering the Packers have done next to nothing to address their switch to a 3-4, I highly doubt that they would trade Kampman. I agree that he isn’t an ideal fit as an outside linebacker in a 3-4, but Green Bay GM Ted Thompson has sat on his ass so far in free agency so I doubt Kampman is going anywhere.
The Packers are thin along the defensive line (they need a true 3-4 defensive end to play opposite Cullen Jenkins) and at linebacker, so it doesn’t make sense for them to create another hole by dealing Kampman.
It would probably be good for me to do an intro to this piece, but I’m going to skip all the foreplay and just get right to the action. And let’s be honest - you probably wouldn’t have read the intro anyway.
Below is my first mock draft of the year. You can disagree all you want, but just make sure you go into detail in the comments section so I know you care. I hate those bastards that trash my work and don’t have the common courtesy to tell me how much of a moron I am in print…
Let’s mock!
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Jason Smith (Baylor), Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and Aaron Curry (Wake Forest) are all possibilities for new GM Martin Mayhew with this pick. But the offensive tackle and linebacker positions are deep in this year’s draft – the quarterback position is not. Mayhew can get his franchise quarterback in Stafford, select an offensive tackle at No. 20 and then fill the middle linebacker need in the second or third round. There, I just fixed the 0-16 Detroit Lions in less than 100 words.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If Smith goes No. 1 to the Lions, then I fully expect the Rams to take Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe. With the jettison of long-time veteran Orlando Pace this offseason, St. Louis needs to address their need at left tackle and they’ll do so with either Smith or Monroe depending on who’s available. If it’s Smith, then they land one of the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
The Chiefs could really use a right tackle to pair with last year’s first round pick, Branden Albert, but Curry would be too good to pass up here. GM Scott Pioli put a premium on versatile defenders while he was in New England, and that’s exactly what Curry is. The Wake Forest product could play either outside or inside in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and is easily the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft.
With free agency ready to kickoff this Friday, February 27, hope once again springs eternal for fans across the NFL.
But it seems like more than any other year, the free agent market this offseason has been picked bone dry before teams have even had the chance to grab their shopping carts.
Nnamdi Asomugha?
Sorry, off the market after re-signing with the Raiders.
Julius Peppers?
Franchised, but teams can probably have him for two first round picks, a gazillion dollars and a six yachts.
Terrell Suggs?
Likely staying put in Baltimore after being franchised.
Karlos Dansby? Brandon Jacobs? Matt Cassel? O.J. Atogwe? Darren Sproles? Antonio Bryant? Dunta Robinson?
All franchised.
Are there any players left on the market to get excited about? Absolutely, there are plenty of quality free agents available and bargains to be had. But as in previous years, there are a ton of risks, as well.
Below are five free agents that might command a decent amount of money this offseason, but will also be worth the heavy price tag in the end. I’ve also complied a group of five free agents that could turn out to be thieves this offseason by commanding big bucks, yet those investments may not pay off once teams start strapping on helmets and shoulder pads again.
The clip runs over 20 minutes, and it provides some insight into Favre’s thinking last summer when he was trying to rejoin the Packers.
I do wish that Werder had asked Favre about the report that he was all set to return in the March of 2008, but as Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson were set to fly to Mississippi to finalize things, he called it off at the last minute. I think that was the reason that the Packers moved on, but unfortunately it wasn’t addressed in this interview. He never really talks about how his wishy-washiness on the subject of retirement puts the franchise in a tough position summer after summer, though he seems pretty level-headed about Green Bay’s decision to move on.
Notable Free Agents: Atari Bigby, S (restricted); Mark Taucher, OT; Michael Montgomery, DE; Colin Cole, DT.
Projected 2009 Cap Space: $18,000,000
Draft Order: 9
Top Needs: OLB, OL, 3-4 defensive linemen.
Offseason Outlook: After hiring Dom Capers to run the defense, the Packers will move to a 3-4 defensive front next season. That means defensive end Aaron Kampman will move to one of the outside linebacker spots, while A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett will be the team’s starting inside ‘backers. The outside linebacker spot opposite of Kampman will be Brady Poppinga’s to lose, although Green Bay will likely bring in competition to push him for the starting position.
The Packers most pressing need this offseason will be finding D-linemen that can fit the 3-4 defensive front – especially at defensive end. Green Bay is in luck too, because after Julius Peppers (who was franchised by Carolina), the next best defensive ends on the market are Chris Canty (Cowboys) and Igor Olshansky (Chargers) – two relatively young linemen that are used to playing in a 3-4. Either way, they have to address both end positions because neither Michael Montgomery nor Colin Cole are expected to be re-signed and there are serious doubts that former first round pick Justin Harrell can be effective in a 3-4.
Even though they project Ryan Pickett to be the starting nose tackle, the Packers might consider drafting Boston College defensive lineman B.J. Raji, who stands 6’1” and weighs 323 pounds. He has excellent strength, can occupy multiple blockers and could easily play nose in a 3-4 scheme. And considering what the needs are for the teams selecting ahead of Green Bay in the draft, Raji should be available at No. 9.
If the Packers decide to go with Pickett at nose, another option for them in the first round is Florida State defensive end Everette Brown, who is athletic enough to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4. He could immediately challenge Poppinga for the starting outside linebacker position opposite Kampman and hopefully give Green Bay’s pass rush (the Pack finished near the bottom of the league in sacks last year) a major boost.
Which is this: Brett Favre is the most overrated athlete of our time.
Favre isn’t the greatest quarterback ever. He’s not even in the top 10. He’s 20th all-time in passer rating, 17th in completion percentage. Yes, he’s No. 1 in yardage and touchdown passes, but he’s also No. 1 by some distance in interceptions. Put it this way: If you added Peyton Manning’s and Joe Montana’s INTs together, you still wouldn’t match Favre’s massive total.
To Favre’s legion of admirers, he wasn’t just a quarterback but The Embodiment Of Football Itself. He was tough and he was daring and he got really excited and he played on the frozen tundra for the old-school Packers and … OK already! But he wasn’t the best quarterback Green Bay had seen — Bart Starr was better — and to me he wasn’t as good as the guy who nearly won a championship with the Arizona Cardinals.
That’s right. Kurt Warner. Who has won just as many titles as Favre, who has been to more Super Bowls, who has a better career completion percentage and a higher passer rating and a lower interception percentage but who had the misfortune of playing most of his career for the wrong Midwestern team in an unfrozen dome.
Unlike down-home Favre, Warner has never been seen as a real man’s man — no Wrangler ads — and hasn’t inspired the breathless adoration that John Madden and Peter King and every voice on ESPN lavished on Favre. Warner is considered a really good quarterback who throws a pretty ball and seems serious about his religion and has a talkative wife. Favre, as we know, is viewed as an icon.
I fail to see what commercials have to do with this argument, but I think Bradley was trying to drive his point home by playing to Warner’s good-guy persona.
What’s overrated in sports these days is the overrated statement itself. It’s not enough to sit back and enjoy a guy’s career, we have to pick it apart and compare it to every other player’s career in the history of the game. Favre didn’t play in Starr’s era, so you can’t compare the two. Peyton Manning has had the opportunity to play in the same offensive system since he was a rookie and Montana had Bill Walsh to learn from. If we’re going to compare things, you have to account for all variables – not just the ones that make your argument (i.e. stats).
Brett Favre might be overrated in the fact that his numbers don’t compare to other quarterbacks who aren’t viewed as a God. But to generally say he was an overrated player is a massive reach.
The Super Bowl has been played since the 1966 season, so while NFL championships before that are not irrelevant, many records are based on the “Super Bowl era.” And while some teams have a great track record in Super Bowls (49ers), there are others that have awful records (Vikings, Bills). Here is a list of the Top 10 teams record-wise (based primarily on wins) in the Super Bowl era…..
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-0)—The 49ers are undefeated in Super Bowl history, and when you have guys like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice and Steve Young leading the way, it’s easy to see how that happens. But these teams were deep on both offense and defense, and were coached by Bill Walsh and George Seifert. What might be even more remarkable is that the Niners have scored 188 points while giving up 89 in those five games, a 99-point differential. Truly, ahem, super.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1)—The Steelers are looking to become the first team to win six Super Bowls this Sunday in Tampa against the Cardinals and the second one in the Ben Roethlisberger era. They are already one of the NFL’s premier franchises, but more is always better when it comes to championships.
3. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)—The Cowboys have a rich history of winning, but in today’s what-have-you-done-for-me-lately NFL, all anyone remembers is that they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996, and that dysfunction follows them around like tabloids following QB Tony Romo.
4. Green Bay Packers (3-1)—You might immediately think of Brett Favre, but he is only 1-1 in Super Bowls. The other two were Super Bowls I and II, when Bart Starr was the Packers’ QB and the coach was the legendary Vince Lombardi.
5. New York Giants (3-1)—The Giants climbed up a few notches with that improbable upset of the Patriots last season. Bill Parcells has two of the wins, one with Phil Simms at the helm and the other with Jeff Hostetler—and both with one of the greatest defensive players in history, Lawrence Taylor, terrorizing the other teams’ quarterbacks.
6. Oakland/LA Raiders (3-2)—It’s been about a quarter century since the Raiders won a Super Bowl, or around the same time Al Davis started to lose his marbles.
7. Washington Redskins (3-2)—The Redskins lost to Miami in Super Bowl 7, 14-7, to cap Miami’s (and the NFL’s only) perfect season, and have had mixed results since then, last appearing in 1991 when they beat Buffalo. Hard to believe it’s been almost 20 years since their last Super Bowl, but Dan Snyder makes Al Davis type decisions at times, so the drought could be long.
8. New England Patriots (3-3)—Have the Patriots have lost as many Super Bowls as they’ve won? Yes, when you realize the first two losses were to the mighty ’85 Bears, and to the unstoppable Favre/Holmgren Packers in ’96.
9. Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts (2-1)—You would think Peyton Manning should have more than one Super Bowl appearance, but that very fact was the big knock on him until he got his ring two years ago.
10. Miami Dolphins (2-3)—It’s been 25 years since the D-men have been in the big game, but mark my words…with Bill Parcells at the helm, this team will get back there within a few years, maybe even next year.
