This year, I’m going to preview the NBA season by starting with the lowest of the low and working my way up to my Finals picks. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff also-ran, I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason.

#30: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs could very well finish with the worst record just one year after finishing 2009-10 with the best regular season record. This, of course, is all LeBron James’ fault. He wasn’t supposed to leave, but he did. Not only did he drag his feet during free agency and make it impossible for the franchise to make any other significant moves, he also broke up with the city of Cleveland in the most public way possible. (Hey, at least the Boys & Girls Club made some money off of the deal.) The Cavs are trying to look forward, but it’s tough when you’re planning to start Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon on the wing and are depending on a 34-year-old Antawn Jamison to be your go-to scorer. Jamison and Mo Williams do bring some offense, and Anderson Varejao and J.J. Hickson will keep the front line competitive, but this team is seriously lacking in talent, specifically at shooting guard and small forward. Byron Scott is a good coach, but he’s going to have a tough time winning more than 25 games with this group. The good news, if there is any, is that the team is not in salary cap hell. They project to have about $10 million in cap space next summer and nearly $30 million in the summer of 2012. But there’s more bad news — it’s going to be tough to attract free agents to Cleveland, especially after Dan Gilbert’s open letter to LeBron.

#29: Toronto Raptors
The other big loser in the Super Friends saga, the Raptors elected not to trade Chris Bosh before the deadline and ended up paying for it in the end. They did trade a disgruntled Hedo Turkoglu for Leandro Barbosa and signed Linas Kleiza to start at small forward. The Raptors are going to try to play a European style of basketball with lots of ball movement and very little isolation. So if they’re able to develop great chemistry quickly, and Andrea Bargnani develops into an All-Star caliber player, they could creep into low-20′s or high teens, but chances are the Raptors are looking at a high lottery pick next summer. There is some young talent on the roster (Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis), but it’s going to have to develop quickly if the Raptors hope to avoid embarrassment night in and night out. Salary-cap wise, Toronto isn’t going to have any significant space (~$15 million) until the summer of 2012, so this rebuilding process is going to take a while.

#28: Minnesota Timberwolves
The T-Wolves are still floundering thanks to the questionable leadership of GM David Kahn. He’s still intent on the idea that Ricky Rubio will be joining the team next year, but Rubio’s parents declined to meet with owner Glen Taylor during a recent trip to Paris to talk things over, so things aren’t looking particularly good on that front. Kahn traded away his best offensive player (Al Jefferson) to Utah for two protected first round picks and acquired/re-signed a couple of reclamation projects in Michael Beasley and Darko Milicic. Looking at the T-Wolves’ salary cap situation, it’s interesting to note that the franchise doesn’t have a single player making more than $5 million this season. For the team to be somewhat competitive this summer, Beasley needs to become a go-to scorer and Kevin Love needs to turn in All-Star caliber numbers at power forward. Minnesota will have about $15 million in cap space next summer to sign Rubio (?) and another significant free agent (or two).

#27: Washington Wizards
The Wizards won the lottery both literally and figuratively when they landed the #1 pick and the rights to draft John Wall, who projects to be a superstar in the NBA. The only issue is that he plays the same position as Gilbert Arenas, who submarined the franchise last season when he brandished a fire arm in the locker room. The Wizards are planning to play Arenas at shooting guard, which might work, but there just isn’t enough talent on the roster to be competitive in the Eastern Conference, which should be improved this season. The Wizards need to feature Arenas and find someone to take his giant contract (four years, $80 million) off their hands for a draft pick or a young prospect along with an expiring contract. This will give Washington a ton of salary cap flexibility next summer and allow Wall to take the reins of the franchise.

#26: Golden State Warriors
With Don Nelson’s recent resignation/dismissal, the Warriors are going through some changes that are likely to have an effect heading into the first few months of the season. This is Stephen Curry’s team now, and the Warriors did well to bring in David Lee to anchor the front line, but it cost them the enigmatic Anthony Randolph in the process. Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are still around, though both have been involved in trade rumors over the last several months. Biedrins should benefit from consistent minutes at center now that Nellie isn’t there to yank him in and out of the lineup. Defensively, this group projects to be fairly brutal as Curry, Ellis and Lee all struggle on that end of the court. Luckily, help is (possibly) on its way — the Warriors will have significant cap space next summer and generally-speaking don’t have any terrible contracts on the books after this season.

#21 to #25 > >

Per CSN Bay Area…

Nelson, the NBA’s all-time coaching leader in victories with 1,335 wins, will be replaced by longtime Warriors assistant coach Keith Smart, according to the sources.

Nelson, who had one year remaining on his contract worth $6 million, returned to the Bay Area last Sunday night, according to general manager Larry Riley in an interview earlier this week.

Riley said Nelson had been watching the team scrimmages and doing his usual office-type things to get ready for the season during that conversation.

But, according to two sources, it was obvious that Nelson wasn’t overly enthusiastic about leaving Maui, where he makes his home, and returning to coach the Warriors.

Several sources indicated that Nelson will be paid the remainder of his contract.

He “wasn’t overly enthusiastic about leaving Maui.” I’ve been to Maui twice, so I can relate. No one is really enthusiastic about leaving Maui.

So Nelson comes back to the Bay Area, wanders around the team facilities for a few days, grumbles about how he’d rather be sitting at a bar in Lahaina or lounging on Ka’anapali Beach and now he’s heading back to Maui with his full salary of $6 million?

What a life!

According to Marc Stein, the Nuggets are telling interested teams thanks but no thanks.

Yet sources tied to five potential Anthony suitors, reached in recent days by ESPN.com, all relayed the same story about the Nuggets’ response: They’re pretty much ending these conversations before they even start by saying that they don’t want to engage in Melo talks.

Ujiri’s Denver superiors instead want him to lead the club’s mountain climb of a bid to try to reconnect with the 26-year-old scoring machine before they even consider trading him, hoping that some sort of positive karma exists in the reunion of Ujiri, a former Nuggets scout, and Anthony, who both arrived in Denver in 2003 and spent several formative seasons together in the organization.

I explored the various trade scenarios last week, and the main issue is that whatever team that trades for Anthony will want a long term commitment. Carmelo wants the three-year extension, so an extend-and-trade is the best way to go for all parties involved. So why he technically doesn’t need to sign off on a new trade destination, the still-unsigned extension gives him the power to do exactly that.

Ujiri has been described as a very positive person, so he’s doing his due diligence here in the hopes of convince Anthony to stay while he tries to reshape the roster. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If Carmelo starts the season as a Nugget, he’ll likely finish it as a Nugget. It will be very difficult to trade him in February if the Nuggets are in the middle of the playoff pack in the West. (Just look at what happened to the Raptors.)

With the news that the Nuggets’ latest meeting with Carmelo and his camp didn’t go that well, it’s time to start looking at Anthony’s short list of teams to see what they can offer in the way of trade.

Per Adrian Wojnarowski, the Nuggets are looking for “young players and draft picks,” so we’ll keep that in mind as we discuss the various trade scenarios.

That Wojnarowski piece also listed five teams as potential landing spots for Anthony: New Jersey, L.A. (Clippers), Houston, Golden State and Charlotte (due to Anthony’s shoe deal with Brand Jordan). Let’s fire up the Trade Machine and go team-by-team to see what they can offer. Keep in mind that it’s virtually impossible to get equal value for a disgruntled star, so most of these trades are going to look better from the point of view of the team receiving Anthony. That’s just the way it is.

New Jersey (soon to be Brooklyn) Nets
New Jersey has four young(ish) players that might appeal to the Nuggets: Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, Terrence Williams and Devin Harris. I don’t see the Nuggets getting Lopez out of this deal, but one idea is a simple swap of Troy Murphy and Derrick Favors for Anthony, with one or two first round draft picks to sweeten the deal if necessary. This would leave the Nets very thin at power forward, but they’d get a Top 15 player to build around while retaining Harris, Williams and Lopez. The Nuggets would get a power forward with a ton of potential to form a nice one-two punch with their best young piece, Ty Lawson.

If the Nuggets aren’t sold on Lawson for some reason, they could ask for Harris, Williams and Kris Humphries (to even out the salaries). Harris, Favors and Humphries is another possibility. So is Harris, Favors and Williams, which looks like the best of the bunch. The Nuggets could hold onto Favors and Williams, and if they’re set with Lawson at point guard, move Harris in another trade.

Would the Nets give up Harris, Favors and Williams? They should. It’s not often that a player of Carmelo’s stature comes on the market while in his prime. Teams should do whatever they can to get him, and worry about fixing the roster later.

Los Angeles Clippers
Hmm. Maybe the Clips will get their star after all. If they do, they have Anthony’s wife, LaLa Vasquez, and her burgeoning ‘entertainment career’ to thank.

To make the numbers work, it appears that Chris Kaman would need to be involved in any trade for Anthony, unless the Nuggets were willing to take on Baron Davis (but he doesn’t exactly fit the ‘young player’ criteria). So how about Kaman, Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu? I’d be shocked if the Nuggets were able to wrest Blake Griffin away from the Clippers, so this may be the best they can do. L.A. could throw in a first round draft pick or two to get the Nuggets to bite. Denver could even throw in Chris Andersen if it wanted to dump more salary and give the Clips a center back in the deal.

Houston Rockets
The Rockets can offer a plethora of different proposals, and they are particularly attractive because they can include the Knicks’ first round draft picks over the next two seasons.

If Denver is in the market for a good young shooting guard, how about Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger (to clear out the logjam at small forward in Houston)? Throw in a first round pick or two and this is a pretty attractive offer. If the Nuggets prefer Patrick Patterson to Hill, he could be included along with Mike Harris to make a similar deal work. Before Nuggets fans scoff at this offer, it should be noted that Martin is just 27 and has scored 20+ points in each of the last four seasons.

Don’t want Martin? How about Budinger, Hill, Patterson, Jared Jeffries’ expiring deal and Aaron Brooks? There are four young players in that deal and the Rockets could add a draft pick or two to aid Denver in its rebuilding effort.

Golden State Warriors
I’m not sure what the Nuggets would want from the Warriors, but they’re not going to get Stephen Curry, so Denver fans should put that pipe dream to rest. Talent-wise, the best deal I can come up with is Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins for Anthony and Chris Andersen. Ellis and Biedrins each still have four years on their deals, but they are 25 and 24 respectively, so they fit the Nuggets’ criteria. Salary-wise, this isn’t going to help Denver’s cap situation at all.

Other than maybe Ekpe Udoh and Brandan Wright, the only other trade assets the Warriors have are the expiring contracts of Dan Gazuric and Vladimir Radmonovic. Either of these guys could be packaged with Ellis or Biedrins if the Nuggets wanted to go that route.

Charlotte Bobcats
It’s strange to see Charlotte on this list, but apparently Carmelo’s shoe deal with Brand Jordan makes it possible. If I’m the Nuggets, I would require that Gerald Wallace be a part of any deal, so maybe an offer of Wallace, Gerald Henderson and D.J. Augustin might get it done. Again, a draft pick or two could be included.

Under this scenario, the Nuggets would get an All-Star (and a first team All-Defensive player) in return, though at 28, he might be a bit long in the tooth for Denver’s rebuilding project. Still, of all the trades described in this post, he is arguably the best player of the bunch.

Tyrus Thomas isn’t eligible to be traded until mid-December and it doesn’t look like the Nuggets are going to wait that long, so there isn’t much else on the Bobcats’ offer that would be of interest.

It’s not clear which of these deals are best for the Nuggets, as we’re not privy to their priorities. Is it important that they trade Carmelo out of the conference? When they say ‘young players’ are they referring to established up-and-comers (Aaron Brooks) or 19- or 20-year old draftees (Derrick Favors)? Are they sold on Lawson as their point guard of the future?

And what about the Knicks? I still think a trade that would send Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry’s expiring contract to Denver for Carmelo would be a pretty good deal for both sides.

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports has the details:

Denver was furnished with a short list of teams and told to get to work. Yes, this is how William Wesley and Leon Rose of CAA work now, thick with threats and ultimatums and a swagger suggesting that the sport belongs to them. After Anthony told owner-in-waiting Josh Kroenke that he still wanted out of Denver during a Sunday meeting, the Nuggets appear done trying to sell their All-Star forward on a contract extension.

This wasn’t a productive, nor particularly pleasant, meeting and multiple sources said it could turn out to be the point of no return for Anthony and the organization. Sources insist it’s no longer a matter of if the Nuggets trade Anthony, but when, where and for whom he’s traded for.

One thing I really like about Wojnarowski is how he infuses a little opinion, even if the story is more news than commentary.

So where might he land?

The Nuggets made it clear to teams they want young players and draft picks for Anthony, league executives said. The New Jersey Nets and Los Angeles Clippers have emerged as the two most probable destinations for Anthony because they have assets that appeal to Denver. The geography works for Anthony because of his wife LaLa Vazquez’s entertainment career.

Golden State and Houston are contenders, too. What’s more, the Charlotte Bobcats are a sleeper because of Anthony’s Brand Jordan shoe deal and the team’s ability to give the Nuggets a salary-dump proposal.

What about the Knicks?

With nothing to trade for Anthony, though, New York isn’t considered a strong contender in the eyes of Denver management.

Don’t tell that to a Knicks fan who recently commented on this post, saying that my idea to offer up Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph was “absurd.” That just goes to show how differently two sides can view the same player(s). The Nuggets seem to view Gallinari and Randolph as ‘nothing,’ while that aforementioned Knicks fan thinks they are the second coming of Larry Bird and Dominique Wilkins.

Later today I’ll go team-by-team and come up with a few (objective) trade scenarios.

No other surname in professional sports is as repulsive. The Warriors’ surname, which won’t ever disgrace this space, also is meaningless. It doesn’t reflect a city or state, thus it has no mayor, no governor, no voting precincts, no ZIP code.

A more suitable surname, and easily more palatable, would be “Oakland Warriors.”

He goes on…

…but if Lacob is aware of the Warriors history, the team relocated to Oakland for the 1971-72 season after its financial disaster in San Francisco, and has mostly flourished at the gate on this side of the bridge. And even with the Warriors’ latest prolonged slump, they still have the NBA’s most loyal fans.

Thus Lacob and Guber can’t argue that renaming the team the Oakland Warriors will affect how well they play or how well they’re supported.

As further proof that a team’s surname has no influence on its performance, observe the Oakland A’s and Oakland Raiders. They’ve both experienced the summit and swampland of success — in the arena and at the turnstiles. But if they were the Jolly Green Giant A’s and the Silver Lode Raiders, it wouldn’t matter.

When I first heard this idea I thought that the name change might alienate fans living in San Francisco, the city of Oakland’s natural rival. His point about the A’s and Raiders makes some sense, but San Francisco has its own NFL and MLB teams, so delineating those make sense. There’s only one NBA team in the Bay Area, and it’s the Golden State Warriors.

What do I think the chances are of renaming the Warriors?

Not good.

You see in June, two weeks before the team’s sale was announced, the Warriors changed their logo and their look once again — new uniforms, new merchandise, new home court surface logo — complete with that same disgusting surname.

I believe Lacob and Guber agreed to that logo change. Otherwise, why would the old Warriors ownership seek to upset the new Warriors owners, who might begin firing staffers right and left as soon as they walk in the door?

I just don’t foresee the Oakland Warriors happening. And if that’s the case, I wish the new owners nothing but futility dunking on their heads.

Newhouse’s use of ‘repulsive’ is a little over the top. I’m sure the fans in Oakland would rather have the team named the ‘Oakland Warriors’ (which sounds b*tchin, by the way), but what percentage of the team’s historically supportive fan base lives in San Francisco or some other part of the Bay Area and would be turned off enough by the change to stop coming to games?

If the new ownership is thinking about such a change (and it doesn’t appear that they are) maybe a poll of season ticket holders is the best way to gauge the inevitable reaction.

Joe Lacob held a couple of media events and answered some questions about his new team, the Golden State Warriors. Tim Kawakami has the details:

Lacob made it very clear he liked the David Lee-for-Anthony Randolph and others deal, plus the $80M contract for Lee.

On the TV side, Matt Steinmetz asked my No. 1 question and Lacob answered: No, he does not expect to bring the Warriors over the luxury-tax line for salaries.

Speaking of signals, Lacob made it all too obvious that he questions whether Don Nelson should coach the team this season, pointing out that Nelson is here for one more, tops.

Why waste that year with Nelson as a lame duck? The players will know–and could run wild. The fans know it. The management know sit. Nelson knows it.

Lacob sounded a lot more excited about Lee and Stephen Curry than he did about Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins.

Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn’t presume that these guys will definitely be traded. But it’s also something everybody in the league will be watching.

The Warriors could build around a Curry/Lee combo. I’m not sure how Monta Ellis will fit in alongside Curry now that Curry has established that the Warriors are his team. They make an undersized backcourt, for sure.

Curry, 22, had an oustanding rookie season, especially after the All-Star break when he averaged 22-6-8 and shot 47% from the field, 44% from 3PT and 91% from the free throw line. He did turn the ball over quite a bit (3.7 per game), but that should improve with time.

On the season, Curry averaged 17.5 points, 5.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds, becoming only the second rookie in league history to average at least 17-4-4 with 40%+ accuracy from long range. The other guy to do it? Larry Bird.