The top 10 first round steals of the last 10 years
Posted by John Paulsen (06/11/2009 @ 12:20 pm)

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).
It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.
On with the list…
10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.
9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6′10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.
8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…
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Posted in: NBA, NBA Draft
Tags: 2009 NBA Draft, Aaron Brooks, Andrei Kirilenko, Beno Udrih, Boris Diaw, Courtney Lee, David Lee, Delonte West, George Hill, Gerald Wallace, Jarrett Jack, John Salmons, Jordan Farmar, Josh Howard, Kendrick Perkins, Kenny Thomas, Kevin Martin, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Morris Peterson, Nate Robinson, NBA Draft, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Fernandez, Samuel Dalembert, Tayshaun Prince, Tony Parker

NBA News and Notes: Mikki to the C’s? Camby almost a Spur?
Posted by John Paulsen (02/23/2009 @ 4:16 pm)
- The Celtics (and others) have offered Mikki Moore a contract. He had a solid 2006-07 season, but the 33-year-old’s career has gone downhill since then.
- Stephon Marbury and Knicks GM Donnie Walsh are going to meet tomorrow to try to hash out a buyout agreement.
- The Warriors are going to shut Monta Ellis down for a week due to stiffness in his ankle, the same ankle he injured mopeding around Mississippi.
- The Spurs were reportedly close to trading for Marcus Camby before last week’s trade deadline. Apparently, the Spurs would have sent Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and George Hill to the Clippers. That’s basically a Hill-for-Camby swap, and I’m surprised that the Clippers didn’t jump on it. Hill is on track to be a starter-quality point guard in the NBA.
- Mike Dunleavy might miss the rest of the season with an injured knee.
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Boston Celtics, Donnie Walsh, George Hill, Golden State Warriors, Marcus Camby, Mike Dunleavy, Mikki Moore, New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Marbury

Much Ado About Nothing: The 5 Biggest Trade Deadline Teases
Posted by John Paulsen (02/19/2009 @ 5:15 pm)

You can blame it on the Grizzlies.
Ever since they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a bag of peanuts and some slightly used underwear, NBA teams have become more and more fickle about pulling the proverbial trigger. With the state of the economy, and some owners desperately trying to cut payroll before the cap and luxury tax thresholds decline, it’s a buyer’s market out there. And those buyers are looking for Gasol-type deals. On the flip side, Chris Wallace took all kinds of grief over that trade and general managers around the league don’t want to follow in his footsteps.
After two or three weeks of covering all of this trade chatter, the biggest deal to speak of is the Shawn Marion/Jermaine O’Neal swap and that happened almost a week ago. Sure, guys like Brad Miller, Andres Nocioni, John Salmons, Rafer Alston, Larry Hughes, Tim Thomas, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden changed zip codes, but I doubt any fans out there are sporting wood at the idea that one or more of these players is joining their team.
This year’s trade deadline was mostly about teams setting themselves up financially for the next two summers of free agency. Even though there were a number of big names bandied about, the Marion/O’Neal deal is the only semi-blockbuster trade of the season. And, barring some last-minute, late-breaking deal, we have these five teams to blame…
5. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were in talks with the Nets about acquiring Vince Carter and also spoke with the Bucks about Richard Jefferson. Either of those players would have been a nice addition, but the Spurs just don’t have the pieces (or the balls) to pull off a trade like that. They were willing to trade for Carter, but they didn’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill. So they offer the Nets Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto. Great, the numbers don’t even add up. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t really think that the Spurs should have given up Mason and/or Hill to acquire Carter. They’re arguably the second-best team in the West and their current lineup, if healthy, is likely to give the Lakers fits if the two teams meet in the playoffs with a less-than-100% Andrew Bynum. Plus the Spurs are notoriously conservative when it comes to messing with their chemistry. Jefferson wouldn’t have been a problem in that area but Carter might have been. So the Spurs stand pat. Shocker.
Read the rest after the jump...
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Alvin Gentry, Amare Stoudemire, Amare Stoudemire trade, Andres Nocioni, Andrew Bynum, Antawn Jamison, Brad Miller, Bruce Bowen, Chris Wilcox, Cleveland Cavaliers, Drew Gooden, Fabricio Oberto, George Hill, Jermaine O'Neal, John Paulsen, John Salmons, Kobe Bryant, Larry Hughes, LeBron 2010, LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA trade talk, New Jersey Nets, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Raef LaFrentz, Rafer Alston, Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason, Shaquille O'Neal, Shawn Marion, Steve Kerr, Summer of 2010, Theo Ratliff, Tim Thomas, Vince Carter, Wally Szczerbiak

NBA trade rumors: Shaq to Cleveland?
Posted by John Paulsen (02/19/2009 @ 12:40 pm)

6/16/09 Update: For discussion about the more recent Shaq rumors, click here.
6/25 Update: Shaq has been reportedly traded to Cleveland.
The trade deadline is at 3 PM ET today, and the rumors are flying fast and furious. I’m not going to spend too much time on each one, but here’s a rundown of the rumors…
- Yahoo! Sports says that the Cavs are considering acquiring Shaquille O’Neal at the cost of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. I’m not sure what the upside is here for the Suns other than the fact that they’d get about $5 million in cap relief next season when Pavlovic’s salary comes off the books.
- The NBA league office apparently sent out a memo warning of drastic reductions in the salary cap and luxury tax thresholds, which may have a few teams scrambling today.
- There was some talk of a Tracy McGrady-for-Baron Davis deal, but that rumor seems to be dead.
- The Suns are reportedly still trying to pry talent away from the Grizzlies, offering up Amare Stoudemire for Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick and a 2009 first round draft pick. Unsurprisingly, the Grizzlies have declined.
- The Bucks are trying to get out from under Richard Jefferson’s contract and they’ve been making some headway with the Blazers and Cavs about Raef LaFrentz and Wally Szczerbiak, respectively.
- The Cavs have been trying to pry Antwan Jamison away from the Wizards, who might be more willing to deal today with the news about the (possible) significant drop in the luxury tax threshold.
- The Vince Carter-to-the-Spurs talk has died down because they don’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill in the deal. Apparently, they want the Nets to give Carter away.
Deadline day is like a poker game with 20 people playing. Teams are holding out until the last minute hoping that they can get the best deal. Complicating matters is the state of the economy and the financial strength of the NBA. There could be a flurry of trades today or everyone could stand pat.
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis, Ben Wallace, Cleveland Cavaliers, George Hill, Hakim Warrick, Houston Rockets, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Mike Conley, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA trade talk, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Sasha Pavlovic, Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Wally Szczerbiak, Washington Wizards

Should the Spurs trade for Vince Carter?
Posted by John Paulsen (02/17/2009 @ 3:00 pm)

There has been some talk of late that the Spurs are interested in acquiring Vince Carter.
Duncan says he would love to have Carter as a teammate, and why not? At age 32, Carter remains one of the NBA’s most productive small forwards, averaging 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists.
Duncan hedges when the price for Carter reportedly includes Roger Mason Jr., Bruce Bowen, George Hill and Fabricio Oberto.
“I’d hate to see that many guys go,” Duncan said after an All-Star appearance he enjoyed, largely because of its brevity.
If general manager R.C. Buford can find a way to get Carter from the Nets without including so many rotation players — a Robert Horry sign-and-trade could be part of such a solution — it is easy to imagine Duncan giving such a deal the blessing Popovich likely would seek.
Here’s a look at the proposed trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. Kurt Thomas could also be substituted for Oberto.
Of the four Spurs that would be heading to New Jersey, the team would miss Roger Mason, Jr. the most.
Read the rest after the jump...
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, George Hill, John Paulsen, NBA trade talk, New Jersey Nets, Roger Mason, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Vince Carter, Vince Carter trade

Spurs’ supporting cast keys big win in Boston
Posted by John Paulsen (02/08/2009 @ 5:50 pm)

The Spurs posted an impressive win over the Celtics, 105-99, which marks the first time this season that Boston has lost two consecutive games at home.
Check out the Spurs’ possessions down the stretch:
3:20 Matt Bonner misses 25-foot three point jumper
2:34 Manu Ginobili misses 23-foot three point jumper
1:57 Matt Bonner bad pass (Kevin Garnett steals)
1:19 Roger Mason misses 27-foot three point jumper
0:45 Matt Bonner makes 14-foot two point shot
0:20 Roger Mason makes 24-foot three point jumper
It’s not often that you see an NBA team go away from their stars for that long in crunch time. The trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker only combined for one shot attempt in six possessions over three full minutes. The Spurs started that stretch leading, 90-87, fell behind 93-90, and then ultimately went ahead, 95-93, on the made shots by Bonner and Mason.
Bonner co-led the Spurs with 23 points on 10-17 shooting, and led the team in shot attempts. George Hill was 3-3 and scored all seven of his points in the fourth quarter with Duncan and Parker on the bench.
Kevin Garnett led the Celtics with 26 points, but after hitting two jumpers to give his team the lead, he missed a key 17-footer with 0:28 to play.
The Top 10 NBA Rookies by PER
Posted by John Paulsen (01/20/2009 @ 5:21 pm)

John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating is a nice way to compare players without having to account for the number of minutes each guy gets. It’s an efficiency statistic, so just about everything is included. A PER of 15.00 is average for the position.
Let’s take a look at the top rookies. I’m only going to list guys that are getting more than 20 minutes per game…
1. Kevin Love, T-Wolves
PER: 16.39
Surprised? I am…a little. I really liked Love coming out of college, but he got off to a slow start and the trade Minnesota made (sending O.J. Mayo) to Memphis wasn’t looking too good early on. He’s not shooting the ball well (41%), but he’s rebounding like a champ (8.4 rpg in 22.7 mpg).
2. Greg Oden, Blazers
PER: 16.35
Technically, Oden is still a rookie since he missed all of last season due to injury. After Love, he has the second best rebound rate of all first-year players.
3. Brook Lopez, Nets
PER: 16.26
Rebounding is the stat that most easily translates from college to the pros, so it’s no surprise that three good rebounders top this list. In 29.5 minutes, Lopez is averaging 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds, and he has more blocks per minute than Oden.
4. Rudy Fernandez, Blazers
PER: 16.25
Rudy has had no problem adjusting to the NBA game. His three-point shooting 39% is outstanding and he’s averaging 11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 26.5 minutes per game. Plus, he was even voted into the Slam Dunk Contest as well.
5. Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
PER: 15.40
The other Gasol is getting starters minutes (30.6) in Memphis and is averaging 11.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
6. Russell Westbrook, Thunder
PER: 15.74
In January, Westbrook is averaging 15.7 points, 6.2 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 34.9 minutes of action. He got off to a slow start, but seems to be figuring things out now.
7. O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies
PER: 15.66
Of all the guys on this list, Mayo might be the guy that asked to do the most. He got off to a blistering start, but defenses are adjusting and his numbers are falling.
8. Derrick Rose, Bulls
PER: 15.45
He and Mayo play more than 37 minutes per game, which is by far tops on this list. It’s hard to argue with the 16.9 points and 6.4 assists that Rose produces every night. Point guard is arguably the toughest position in the NBA to learn as a rookie, and this guy sure looks like a keeper.
9. Michael Beasley, Heat
PER: 15.23
Beasley is getting better as the season wears on. He’s averaging 14.9 points (on 50% shooting) and 6.0 rebounds in January. He’s also as good as expected from long range (39%).
10. D.J. Augustin, Bobcats
PER: 13.75
It’s not easy being a point guard under Larry Brown, but Augustin is getting big minutes (28.4) and is producing 12.1 points and 4.1 assists per contest. His shooting (40%) is pretty suspect, though he’s very solid from long range (39%).
Notes:
- Marreese Speights leads all rookies in PER (20.44) but only plays 15.9 minutes per game.
- Anthony Morrow and George Hill just missed the minutes per game cutoff. Otherwise, they would have been on the list.
- Given how tough it is to play point guard in the NBA, Derrick Rose still gets my vote for Rookie of the Year. The Bulls are asking him to play huge minutes, which is going to take its toll over the course of the season.
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Draft
Tags: Brook Lopez, D.J. Augustin, Derrick Rose, George Hill, Greg Oden, John Hollinger, John Hollinger PER, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, Marreese Speights, Michael Beasley, NBA rookie, NBA Rookie of the Year, O.J. Mayo, PER, Player Efficiency Rating, Rudy Fernandez, Russell Westbrook

How did the Spurs beat the Rockets last night?
Posted by John Paulsen (11/15/2008 @ 1:55 pm)
I know the answer is “defense,” but the San Antonio Spurs started with this lineup last night – George Hill, Roger Mason, Ime Udoka, Tim Duncan and Fabricio Oberto – and they still managed to beat (77-75) a Houston team that was pretty much at full strength. Rafer Alston was suspended for the game and the team is still without Shane Battier due to a foot injury. Still, the Rockets have no business losing to the Spurs, who are without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
On the night, Tracy McGrady was just 2-12 from the field, but the Rockets still led by seven heading into the fourth quarter. Tim Duncan (22 points, 5 rebounds) was big down the stretch and he had the game-saving block (on Aaron Brooks’ layup attempt) to seal the win.
When looking at a win like this, maybe the injuries to Ginobili and Parker are a blessing in disguise for the Spurs. Guys like Hill and Mason are getting big minutes, and this experience could very well help San Antonio down the road.
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