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Putting the NFL’s potential lockout in dummy terms

If you, like me, live in fear of the fall of 2011 having no NFL football, but don’t understand all of the legal mumbo-jumbo associated with the labor dispute, I’m hear to put things in terms we all can understand.

First things first, and that is that the owners unanimously opted out of the current CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) in 2008, one that they had signed off on in 2006. Since I’m making this as easy as possible to understand, let me tell you that a CBA is the agreement two sides, usually labor and management, come to on various topics, most of which include how money will be divided. And in this case, the owners realized that player salaries were escalating out of control and that their profits were being squeezed more each year. Yes, part of the problem is they are agreeing to these salaries, and player agents are a huge part of that. In the bigger picture, the real problem is revenue sharing, a.k.a. how to split the financial pie. And while the NFL is bringing in a ridiculous amount of money ($7.6 billion in 2008), about 62% of that goes to player salaries, a number that keeps climbing due to increases in the overall salary cap. To make matters worse, there is also revenue sharing among teams, meaning the big market teams have to help the small market teams to help them compete with each other on the field.

So the owners want something like 18% of the pie back, in the form of salary cuts to the players. Naturally, the players do not want to give them this money back, and that is why head of the players’ union DeMaurice Smith announced during the Super Bowl’s hype week that the chance of a lockout were a 14 on a scale of 1 to 10. For his part, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell denounced that, saying he hoped it wouldn’t come to a work stoppage, but he also knows that it’s a very real possibility. The players aren’t necessarily saying they won’t give part of the pie back, either. Smith wants the owners to show the players that they are struggling to run their businesses, meaning he wants them to open up their books. And the owners won’t do it. So are the numbers being reported not what they say? It’s hard to say the owners aren’t lying about these numbers, when they keep agreeing to player contracts and they keep building huge state-of-the-art stadiums, but they also have the right to not open their books if they don’t want to. And the bottom line is that the owners are not happy about doling out more and more of their profits.

Then, of course, there is the issue of an uncapped 2010 season. The current structure calls for a salary cap through the 2009 season, with 2010 being an uncapped year if the owners opt out of the CBA, which they did. Last time this happened, in 1993, player salaries rose to 69% of NFL revenue, and that is expected to happen again. But of course, nothing is guaranteed in 2011, so the players have to be careful of what they wish for.

If organized sports have taught us anything, it’s that the possibility of no games being played can and will happen. You might remember the NFL had a similar situation in 1987, and the owners used replacement players for a few games before the dispute was resolved and the regular players went back to work. MLB cancelled the last two months of the 1994 season as well as the playoffs and World Series, a black mark they have not recovered from. The NBA had a similar situation in 1998-99, with almost half a season being wiped out. And of course, the freshest in our memories is the NHL’s 2004-05 season that was not played due to a labor dispute.

So as fans, we have to hope a few things happen between now and the summer of 2011, which is spewing a black cloud that keeps getting darker and more imposing by the day. We have to hope the owners agree to open up their books, and we have to hope the players agree to give back part of the pie for the health and financial well being of the NFL. Sure, we want the players we love to watch get the money they deserve, but within reason. Certainly it’s not worth much to anyone to have no NFL games being played, but it may very well come to that.

Of course, the NFL is not the only business that would be affected by a lockout. Besides the local businesses near stadiums that thrive during the season, fantasy football and all of the money (reported as upwards of $3 billion in 2007) associated with that is threatened here. Think about that for a second. The folks that make their livelihood in that world will be flattened financially. Well, maybe that’s going to be the subject of my next piece on this, but for the moment I wanted to do my part to help everyone understand the dispute between owners and players, and what it all really means.

Many think that a lockout won’t really happen, and I’m optimistic myself that it won’t. But history surely does make us all nervous, doesn’t it?

Hot Stove League: Lots of little movement

You know it’s a slow week in MLB again when the big news is that Jeff Kent has announced his retirement. And just like Kent does with ease himself, the news stirred up controversy. This volatile player has never quite been a media darling, and has often gotten into it with teammates. But there is now debate about the guy’s Hall of Fame credentials. Okay, he may have the most homers for a second baseman in history, but you can’t tell me this guy is in the same class as a guy like Joe Morgan. He’s just not. And while a .290 career batting average is nothing to sneeze at, 377 homers over 20 years is not exactly Babe Ruth-esque.

Anyway, as Manny Ramirez remains unemployed, there were a few other smaller signings and moves this past week….

Okay, this isn’t small but just announced on Friday, Prince Fielder has agreed to a 2-year, $18 million deal with the Brewers that will keep him firmly entrenched (and who could move the guy?) on first base in Milwaukee through 2010. I’m glad for the Brew Crew since they lost out to the mighty Yankees in the CC sweepstakes.

Catcher Gregg Zaun re-signed with the Orioles, the team that drafted him back in 1989. The journeyman player signed a deal worth $1.5 million with a $2 million option for 2010.

The Phillies signed outfielder Jayson Werth to a two-year, $10 million contract and also inked reliever Chad Durbin to a one-year deal worth $1.635 million.

Young right fielder Nick Markakis of the Orioles came to terms on a six-year, $66.1 million deal, covering his first three arbitration-eligible years as well as his first three free agency eligible seasons. Clearly the O’s believe in this kid and want to keep him away from the Yankees and Red Sox.

Two other catchers signed this week—Brad Ausmus reached agreement with the Dodgers on a 1-year, $1 million deal; and Henry Blanco signed a $750,000 deal for one year to back up Padres’ catcher Nick Hundley.

Shortstop Omar Vizquel, who at 41 still looks like he’s 25, has been invited to spring training by the Texas Rangers. Vizquel signed a minor league deal that will allow him to mentor 20-year old Elvis Andrus, and to possibly become the team’s utility infielder. In order to make room for Andrus on the field, the Rangers are planning to move all-star shortstop Michael Young to third base. In addition, the Rangers are said to be casually wooing free agent pitcher Ben Sheets, who lives in Dallas.

Meanwhile, Tom Covill of Yahoo Sports posted this great summary of the remaining big name free agents still looking for work. It’s really kind of mind-boggling, but looking at these tiny deals being signed this past week, it’s clearly about economics and nothing more.

Hot Stove League: Pitchers Flying Off Shelves

This past week, John Smoltz officially signed with the Red Sox and the Braves inked Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million deal, something Atlanta’s rival New York Mets could not match. Imagine that. But what runs deeper here is that the second and even third tier of pitchers continue to be signed and many position players remain team-less.

Less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, here are some of the big names still available: Manny freaking Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, Orlando Hudson, Frank Thomas, and to a lesser extent, Kevin Millar (20 homers last season) and Orlando Cabrera. To put this in perspective, the Astros signed pitcher Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal a few days ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Guillermo Mota, the Angels inked Darren Oliver for one year, and the White Sox brought back a Bartolo Colon who is on the downside of his career. Clearly, it’s a pitchers’ market this off-season, and it’s almost mind-boggling that Ramirez has gone almost three full months without being signed.

Part of the problem here is that the big spenders (ahem, New York teams) have blown their collective load on the likes of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., leaving a team like the Dodgers the likely scenario for Man-Ram in 2009, which at the end of the day is probably best for both sides anyway. But some of those other guys are going to have trouble finding work, or they are going to take a recession-friendly deal from a team they wouldn’t have signed with otherwise. It’s already happened with Pat Burrell in Tampa and Jason Giambi with Oakland.

In other more recent news, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Kevin Youkilis on Thursday, agreeing to terms on a four-year deal. And the Dodgers finally released beleaguered outfielder Andruw Jones, who the Braves are considering bringing back for the league minimum salary. The Braves are also mulling over whether to bring back injury-plagued LHP Tom Glavine for one more season.

Hot Stove League: New York, New York (Burnett Officially Signs With Yankees)

I know this was Vegas, which comes with its own set of distractions, but come on. We all expected a lot more to happen at the MLB Winter Meetings this past week than the Yankees giving CC Sabathia the equivalent of a small planet and AJ Burnett significant real estate on said planet (the Yanks made the latter official Friday afternoon with a 5-year, $82.5 million deal), as well as the Mets signing the best closer out there (K-Rod) and trading for a second one (JJ Putz) to be their set-up guy. Unless the Orioles and Reds swapping Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Freel, or the Rays and Tigers trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce gets your blood flowing, it was kind of a disappointing week, especially if you live 40 miles or more outside of the New York metro area.

We still have Manny Ramirez without a team, and the very real possibility that he could just stay with the Dodgers. Really, doesn’t that make the most sense for this guy’s, um, easygoing, personality and playing style? Meanwhile, the stakes for Mark Teixeira have been upped by none other than the Washington Nationals, who are believed to be offering the free agent slugger eight years at $20 million per. That sounds to me like agent Scott Boras trying to just be Scott Boras. We all know Tex is going to wind up in Boston, Baltimore, or back with the Angels.

And as if Cubs’ fans haven’t suffered through enough misery lately, GM Jim Hendry decided to pull the plug on the Jake Peavy trade. He just didn’t want to inherit as much salary as the Padres wanted him to, and he surely didn’t want to throw Mark DeRosa on a plane to San Diego as part of the deal. Now, the Angels have been mentioned as a team that might pursue Peavy, and you definitely can’t count the Yankees out either. Oh, and by the way, the Yankees have turned their attention to in-house “old reliable” Andy Pettitte now, and have not ruled Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe out yet. Wow.

Meanwhile, the Mets spent so much on closers that they literally had nothing left to go after Lowe. Instead, GM Omar Minaya is talking to the Cubs about a trade for Jason Marquis, and/or re-signing Oliver Perez or Pedro Martinez.

There could be a lot more moves on the horizon, but in a week expected to have a lot of fireworks, the hot stove fired up in New York and nowhere else. Stay tuned though, because deals are known to happen into January, and some, like Ramirez and Teixeira signing, could lead a domino effect for more moves.

Hot Stove League: Someone Light the Pilot

Seriously, will someone please sign a big free agent already? The MLB Winter Meetings begin on Monday in Vegas, and hopefully the baseball big shots will spend more time signing free agents and making trades than they do gambling.

Well, a few things have happened of note this week. The Red Sox signed AL MVP Dustin Pedroia to a new, six-year deal worth $40.5 million. And this for a guy who was making less than $500K per year. But dude has earned every penny…..Javier Vazquez was traded from the White Sox to the Braves for four young (mostly minor league) players, and Ozzie Guillen is probably smiling if he’s reading this….the Padres sent Khalil Greene to St. Louis…..and the Giants signed infielder Edgar Renteria to a two-year, $18.5 million deal and are also talking about making CC Sabathia an offer and even trading for Florida third baseman Jorge Cantu. Yeah, the Giants are not messing around. And Derek Lowe has been offered two deals, one by the Phillies and another by a mystery team

Okay, so I guess some things are happening, but not the big ones we all were waiting for, at least not yet. The Yankees are set to meet with CC Sabathia this weekend to discuss their ridiculously large offer made recently. Here are a few other rumors and possible deals that could happen next week….

The Mets are finally prepared to offer deals to Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, but it remains to be seen if both offers will happen simultaneously. Speaking of Fuentes, he, along with the likes of Sabathia and Cubs closer Kerry Wood have all been offered salary arbitration, which means anyone signing them will have to give the team that loses them two draft picks in 2009. Fuentes is also being rumored to re-signing with Colorado. And the Mets are rumored to be talking to the White Sox about sending prize prospect Fernando Martinez to Chicago for Bobby Jenks and Jermaine Dye. I just don’t see that really happening, do you?

Pat Burrell may sign with the Angels if the Angels cannot retain Mark Teixeira. And if Teixeira goes to the Red Sox, which is more than a rumor, the Sox may deal Mike Lowell to make room for Teixeira, who would be the first baseman with Kevin Youkilis moving to third.

Jermaine Dye’s name is being mentioned in trade talks (besides the Mets), and the teams being mentioned are Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the White Sox are also listening to offers for Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. Yikes….did someone give Sox GM Kenny Williams some dynamite?

Randy Johnson is hoping to sign a one-year deal with either Oakland or San Francisco…..the Cubs are thinking about signing Adam Dunn. Those two items didn’t just put you to sleep, did they?

Oh, and here’s a sure sign of the economy slowing. Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are among the names not offered salary arbitration this past week. That means the D-Backs, Phillies, and Yankees, respectively, would rather piss away two draft picks than have to re-sign the player. Say it with me again, Yikes.

Hopefully we’ll have lots to report next week!

No big signings, but a few rumbles of thunder

It’s been over a week since the period of free agency officially began, and yet we have no big signings just yet. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been talks, or even money offered. But it does mean that certain players and their agents just aren’t ready to make hasty decisions without weighing multiple options, and perhaps driving prices up into the stratosphere.

Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin was miffed that the Yankees made the kind of offer they knew the Brewers couldn’t match–$130 or $140 million over six years, where the Brewers were hoping for more in the $100 million range. The Dodgers reportedly are getting set to offer CC between $110 to $120 million, plus the comforts of living on the west coast and getting the chance to swing a bat every five days. The Dodgers are also interested in trading for Toronto’s Roy Halladay, who suddenly is being mentioned in trade rumors. If the Dodgers are not able to sign CC or trade for Halladay, word is they will put their resources into re-signing one Manny Ramirez. Oh, and the Giants are also talking about making CC an offer. Imagine CC and NL MVP Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation, something that could shift the balance of power in the NL West.

There is likely to be a bidding war between the Red Sox, Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Braves and Phillies for righty AJ Burnett, the most coveted pitcher in the free agent pool not named CC.

If you saw the Mets’ bullpen blow about a quarter of their losses last season (okay, maybe more), you know that GM Omar Minaya has made the pen a priority in the off-season. So not only are the Mets looking to sign a free agent stud like Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, they are also looking to trade for Seattle’s JJ Putz or newly acquired Rockies’ pitcher Huston Street. The terribly ineffective Aaron Heilman is being dangled as trade bait, but for the names they’re looking at, the Mets would probably have to offer up a lot more than that.

Talks seem to keep breaking down about the Padres trading Jake Peavy…first with the Braves, then with the Cubs (after they re-signed Ryan Dempster)….and now the Yankees are being mentioned. Hmmm.

And Mark Teixeira is being mentioned in the same breath as the words “Washington Nationals.” Raise your hand if you saw that coming…..

Free Agency Officially Begins

Folks, your head could spin if you read all of the news and rumors about players possibly changing teams or getting big free agent money from their current or new team. So for today, we’ll focus on the big names that has everyone excited about….

CC Sabathia—The Yankees are expected to make a huge offer to the best pitcher on the market, and, well, would you expect anything less from the Steinbrenners? CC had made his desire clear that he wants to pitch in the National League and preferably on the west coast (ahem, Dodgers), but you can bet he will have a hard time turning down the $140 million offer from the Yanks. Yes, you just read that correctly. Oh, but don’t count the Angels or Mets out of the mix yet.

Manny Ramirez—It’s hard to figure if the Dodgers will make their pitch for Manny or CC first, but they if they decide Manny and Scott Boras want too many years in the deal, the team may just offer that money to Sabathia instead, who would love to pitch at Dodger Stadium in 2009 and beyond. Manny may not have to change residency though, as the Angels are reportedly interested, especially if they lose Mark Teixeira as expected.
The Mets may also make a play, but they need to shore up their pitching before adding another bat.

Francisco Rodriguez—The Angels are crazy for letting this guy walk, but maybe they just don’t think he’s worth mega-bucks at this point. Plus, the one time the guy decided to blow a save was in the postseason. The Mets seem like a likely fit, but they are not likely to pay K-Rod and his agent what they want either, and are rumored to be pursuing Brian Fuentes instead.

Mark Teixeira—The latest rumor has the Red Sox signing Teixeira as well as former Sox pitcher Derek Lowe. Would that make the Sox instant favorites in the AL? Well, the way the Rays played last season, you can’t really say that. Money doesn’t buy pennants anymore. But it would make the Sox significantly better, and that’s really saying something.

Kerry Wood—The Cubs did not pick up Wood’s option, making him a free agent. Again, the Mets have to be interested, don’t they? Yes, but the Mets are concerned about Wood’s injury history, so they are weighing all of their options, including a possible trade for the White Sox’ Bobby Jenks. Meanwhile, the Cubs picked up Kevin Gregg from the Marlins in a trade on Thursday and Gregg could possibly be Chicago’s closer in 2009.

Here are some other free agents likely to be signed quickly…..AJ Burnett, Randy Johnson, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Dempster, Rafael Furcal. We’re just getting started folks!

Bulls re-sign Luol Deng for six years, $71 million

It was a long, arduous negotiation, but the Bulls finally locked up Luol Deng. I estimated Deng’s value to be $11-$12 million per season, and he ultimately signed for $11.83 million per season.

Given his modest background growing up in the Sudan and Egypt before moving to London, Deng stressed to the Bulls that he was not bluffing when he vowed to play next season on a one-year qualifying offer worth about $4.5 million for the right to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2009.

The Bulls then gradually raised their offer to a higher annual average that Deng turned down in October, when Chicago was limited to offering him a five-year extension and presented the 6-foot-9 forward with a five-year package worth $57.5 million. As ESPN.com reported earlier this month, Bulls chairman Jerry Reinsdorf chose to personally handle the bulk of the negotiations with Deng’s camp as opposed to the standard practice of Paxson serving as lead negotiator.

This negotiation seemed like it had been going on forever, so it’s good to see the Bulls lock up their star. Now they just have to figure out what to do with Ben Gordon.

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