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Hot Stove League: Pitchers Flying Off Shelves

This past week, John Smoltz officially signed with the Red Sox and the Braves inked Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million deal, something Atlanta’s rival New York Mets could not match. Imagine that. But what runs deeper here is that the second and even third tier of pitchers continue to be signed and many position players remain team-less.

Less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, here are some of the big names still available: Manny freaking Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, Orlando Hudson, Frank Thomas, and to a lesser extent, Kevin Millar (20 homers last season) and Orlando Cabrera. To put this in perspective, the Astros signed pitcher Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal a few days ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Guillermo Mota, the Angels inked Darren Oliver for one year, and the White Sox brought back a Bartolo Colon who is on the downside of his career. Clearly, it’s a pitchers’ market this off-season, and it’s almost mind-boggling that Ramirez has gone almost three full months without being signed.

Part of the problem here is that the big spenders (ahem, New York teams) have blown their collective load on the likes of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., leaving a team like the Dodgers the likely scenario for Man-Ram in 2009, which at the end of the day is probably best for both sides anyway. But some of those other guys are going to have trouble finding work, or they are going to take a recession-friendly deal from a team they wouldn’t have signed with otherwise. It’s already happened with Pat Burrell in Tampa and Jason Giambi with Oakland.

In other more recent news, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Kevin Youkilis on Thursday, agreeing to terms on a four-year deal. And the Dodgers finally released beleaguered outfielder Andruw Jones, who the Braves are considering bringing back for the league minimum salary. The Braves are also mulling over whether to bring back injury-plagued LHP Tom Glavine for one more season.

Hot Stove League: New York, New York (Burnett Officially Signs With Yankees)

I know this was Vegas, which comes with its own set of distractions, but come on. We all expected a lot more to happen at the MLB Winter Meetings this past week than the Yankees giving CC Sabathia the equivalent of a small planet and AJ Burnett significant real estate on said planet (the Yanks made the latter official Friday afternoon with a 5-year, $82.5 million deal), as well as the Mets signing the best closer out there (K-Rod) and trading for a second one (JJ Putz) to be their set-up guy. Unless the Orioles and Reds swapping Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Freel, or the Rays and Tigers trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce gets your blood flowing, it was kind of a disappointing week, especially if you live 40 miles or more outside of the New York metro area.

We still have Manny Ramirez without a team, and the very real possibility that he could just stay with the Dodgers. Really, doesn’t that make the most sense for this guy’s, um, easygoing, personality and playing style? Meanwhile, the stakes for Mark Teixeira have been upped by none other than the Washington Nationals, who are believed to be offering the free agent slugger eight years at $20 million per. That sounds to me like agent Scott Boras trying to just be Scott Boras. We all know Tex is going to wind up in Boston, Baltimore, or back with the Angels.

And as if Cubs’ fans haven’t suffered through enough misery lately, GM Jim Hendry decided to pull the plug on the Jake Peavy trade. He just didn’t want to inherit as much salary as the Padres wanted him to, and he surely didn’t want to throw Mark DeRosa on a plane to San Diego as part of the deal. Now, the Angels have been mentioned as a team that might pursue Peavy, and you definitely can’t count the Yankees out either. Oh, and by the way, the Yankees have turned their attention to in-house “old reliable” Andy Pettitte now, and have not ruled Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe out yet. Wow.

Meanwhile, the Mets spent so much on closers that they literally had nothing left to go after Lowe. Instead, GM Omar Minaya is talking to the Cubs about a trade for Jason Marquis, and/or re-signing Oliver Perez or Pedro Martinez.

There could be a lot more moves on the horizon, but in a week expected to have a lot of fireworks, the hot stove fired up in New York and nowhere else. Stay tuned though, because deals are known to happen into January, and some, like Ramirez and Teixeira signing, could lead a domino effect for more moves.

Mets Solidify Bullpen Further With Putz; Yanks and Braves Chasing Burnett

Well, it turns out Mets’ GM Omar Minaya wasn’t messing around when it came to fixing his team’s biggest problem–the bullpen. A day after agreeing to terms with record breaking closer Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, Minaya pulled the trigger on a blockbuster trade involving two other teams, Seattle and Cleveland. The Mets acquired Mariners’ closer JJ Putz and RHP Sean Green from Seattle and OF Jeremy Reed from Cleveland; they sent OF Endy Chavez, RHP Aaron Heilman, and minor leaguers Maikel Cleto, Ezequiel Carrera, Jason Vargas, and Mike Carp to Seattle and RHP Joe Smith to Cleveland; Cleveland sent IF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle; and Seattle sent Luis Valbuena to Cleveland.

Essentially what this means for the Mets is that they traded Heilman and Smith for Putz, while swapping marginal outfielders. The move is good for Seattle, who received a ton of young players, and for Cleveland, who now have a reliable sinker ball pitcher to put in front of new closer Kerry Wood. But it’s huge for the Mets, who will put Putz in the set-up role in front of K-Rod. Putz will earn just $5.5 million in 2009 and has a team option in 2010 for $9.1 million, and K-Rod’s contract also features a lot of money on the back end of his contract. That means Minaya and the Mets will have decisions to make in 2010 and beyond, but for 2009 in shiny new Citi Field, they have given themselves possibly the best one-two bullpen punch in the majors, and any lead after the seventh inning will almost certainly result in a win. Things still have to play out on the field, but that’s already a far cry from the two epic collapses of 2006 and 2007.

Meanwhile, the Braves and Yankees appear to be in a bidding war for RHP A.J. Burnett. The Yankees were not satisfied with just C.C. Sabathia, and are looking to fortify their rotation with Burnett, and/or Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte or Derek Lowe. The Braves offered four years with a fifth year option, all totaling $80 million, to Burnett; and since then, reports surfaced that the Yanks upped their offer to $91 million, but that was incorrect, and it’s said to be more in the same $80 to $85 million range the Braves are offering, but with five years guaranteed. It’s unclear if the Braves can win a real bidding war with New York, but with the numbers close, this one will surely be more a matter of where Burnett wants to live and work for the next few years.

Mets expect to sign K-Rod to three-year deal

The New York Mets are about to land one of the best closers in baseball.

The Mets appear on the verge of simultaneously interrupting a sluggish baseball market and solving their biggest winter issue. They are closing in on a deal to sign star free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez.

“It’s going to get done,” said a person familiar with the talks.

It almost had to. The Mets badly needed a big-time closer to replace injured star Billy Wagner and anchor what was one of the worst bullpens ever attached to a contender. To accomplish their goal, they focused on K-Rod as their closer of choice over the past couple weeks.

The contract is a very reasonable one for the Mets in that Rodriguez will make only about $3 million more than he was offered by the Angels in spring training, before he set the single-season record for saves in a season with 62. It is also $6 million less over its term than the Mets paid to Wagner three winters ago.

The deal makes sense for K-Rod, too, since he knew he couldn’t top that type of deal in those smaller markets. he is also thought to want to be in a big market, anyway. His first choice appeared to be to go back to the Angels, but they have suitable replacement in Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields and put him way on the back burner while pursing top target, free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.

This Mets team has to succeed this year. The club spent beaucoup bucks on ace Johan Santana last year, have plenty of quality hitters and are now adding one of the top closers in the game. Of course, everything comes down to execution, which has been the Mets problem over the years. It’ll be interesting to see how much noise the Mets continue to make during the winter meetings.

Hot Stove League: Someone Light the Pilot

Seriously, will someone please sign a big free agent already? The MLB Winter Meetings begin on Monday in Vegas, and hopefully the baseball big shots will spend more time signing free agents and making trades than they do gambling.

Well, a few things have happened of note this week. The Red Sox signed AL MVP Dustin Pedroia to a new, six-year deal worth $40.5 million. And this for a guy who was making less than $500K per year. But dude has earned every penny…..Javier Vazquez was traded from the White Sox to the Braves for four young (mostly minor league) players, and Ozzie Guillen is probably smiling if he’s reading this….the Padres sent Khalil Greene to St. Louis…..and the Giants signed infielder Edgar Renteria to a two-year, $18.5 million deal and are also talking about making CC Sabathia an offer and even trading for Florida third baseman Jorge Cantu. Yeah, the Giants are not messing around. And Derek Lowe has been offered two deals, one by the Phillies and another by a mystery team

Okay, so I guess some things are happening, but not the big ones we all were waiting for, at least not yet. The Yankees are set to meet with CC Sabathia this weekend to discuss their ridiculously large offer made recently. Here are a few other rumors and possible deals that could happen next week….

The Mets are finally prepared to offer deals to Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, but it remains to be seen if both offers will happen simultaneously. Speaking of Fuentes, he, along with the likes of Sabathia and Cubs closer Kerry Wood have all been offered salary arbitration, which means anyone signing them will have to give the team that loses them two draft picks in 2009. Fuentes is also being rumored to re-signing with Colorado. And the Mets are rumored to be talking to the White Sox about sending prize prospect Fernando Martinez to Chicago for Bobby Jenks and Jermaine Dye. I just don’t see that really happening, do you?

Pat Burrell may sign with the Angels if the Angels cannot retain Mark Teixeira. And if Teixeira goes to the Red Sox, which is more than a rumor, the Sox may deal Mike Lowell to make room for Teixeira, who would be the first baseman with Kevin Youkilis moving to third.

Jermaine Dye’s name is being mentioned in trade talks (besides the Mets), and the teams being mentioned are Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the White Sox are also listening to offers for Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. Yikes….did someone give Sox GM Kenny Williams some dynamite?

Randy Johnson is hoping to sign a one-year deal with either Oakland or San Francisco…..the Cubs are thinking about signing Adam Dunn. Those two items didn’t just put you to sleep, did they?

Oh, and here’s a sure sign of the economy slowing. Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are among the names not offered salary arbitration this past week. That means the D-Backs, Phillies, and Yankees, respectively, would rather piss away two draft picks than have to re-sign the player. Say it with me again, Yikes.

Hopefully we’ll have lots to report next week!

No big signings, but a few rumbles of thunder

It’s been over a week since the period of free agency officially began, and yet we have no big signings just yet. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been talks, or even money offered. But it does mean that certain players and their agents just aren’t ready to make hasty decisions without weighing multiple options, and perhaps driving prices up into the stratosphere.

Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin was miffed that the Yankees made the kind of offer they knew the Brewers couldn’t match–$130 or $140 million over six years, where the Brewers were hoping for more in the $100 million range. The Dodgers reportedly are getting set to offer CC between $110 to $120 million, plus the comforts of living on the west coast and getting the chance to swing a bat every five days. The Dodgers are also interested in trading for Toronto’s Roy Halladay, who suddenly is being mentioned in trade rumors. If the Dodgers are not able to sign CC or trade for Halladay, word is they will put their resources into re-signing one Manny Ramirez. Oh, and the Giants are also talking about making CC an offer. Imagine CC and NL MVP Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation, something that could shift the balance of power in the NL West.

There is likely to be a bidding war between the Red Sox, Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Braves and Phillies for righty AJ Burnett, the most coveted pitcher in the free agent pool not named CC.

If you saw the Mets’ bullpen blow about a quarter of their losses last season (okay, maybe more), you know that GM Omar Minaya has made the pen a priority in the off-season. So not only are the Mets looking to sign a free agent stud like Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, they are also looking to trade for Seattle’s JJ Putz or newly acquired Rockies’ pitcher Huston Street. The terribly ineffective Aaron Heilman is being dangled as trade bait, but for the names they’re looking at, the Mets would probably have to offer up a lot more than that.

Talks seem to keep breaking down about the Padres trading Jake Peavy…first with the Braves, then with the Cubs (after they re-signed Ryan Dempster)….and now the Yankees are being mentioned. Hmmm.

And Mark Teixeira is being mentioned in the same breath as the words “Washington Nationals.” Raise your hand if you saw that coming…..

Free Agency Officially Begins

Folks, your head could spin if you read all of the news and rumors about players possibly changing teams or getting big free agent money from their current or new team. So for today, we’ll focus on the big names that has everyone excited about….

CC Sabathia—The Yankees are expected to make a huge offer to the best pitcher on the market, and, well, would you expect anything less from the Steinbrenners? CC had made his desire clear that he wants to pitch in the National League and preferably on the west coast (ahem, Dodgers), but you can bet he will have a hard time turning down the $140 million offer from the Yanks. Yes, you just read that correctly. Oh, but don’t count the Angels or Mets out of the mix yet.

Manny Ramirez—It’s hard to figure if the Dodgers will make their pitch for Manny or CC first, but they if they decide Manny and Scott Boras want too many years in the deal, the team may just offer that money to Sabathia instead, who would love to pitch at Dodger Stadium in 2009 and beyond. Manny may not have to change residency though, as the Angels are reportedly interested, especially if they lose Mark Teixeira as expected.
The Mets may also make a play, but they need to shore up their pitching before adding another bat.

Francisco Rodriguez—The Angels are crazy for letting this guy walk, but maybe they just don’t think he’s worth mega-bucks at this point. Plus, the one time the guy decided to blow a save was in the postseason. The Mets seem like a likely fit, but they are not likely to pay K-Rod and his agent what they want either, and are rumored to be pursuing Brian Fuentes instead.

Mark Teixeira—The latest rumor has the Red Sox signing Teixeira as well as former Sox pitcher Derek Lowe. Would that make the Sox instant favorites in the AL? Well, the way the Rays played last season, you can’t really say that. Money doesn’t buy pennants anymore. But it would make the Sox significantly better, and that’s really saying something.

Kerry Wood—The Cubs did not pick up Wood’s option, making him a free agent. Again, the Mets have to be interested, don’t they? Yes, but the Mets are concerned about Wood’s injury history, so they are weighing all of their options, including a possible trade for the White Sox’ Bobby Jenks. Meanwhile, the Cubs picked up Kevin Gregg from the Marlins in a trade on Thursday and Gregg could possibly be Chicago’s closer in 2009.

Here are some other free agents likely to be signed quickly…..AJ Burnett, Randy Johnson, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Dempster, Rafael Furcal. We’re just getting started folks!

Top 50 MLB Free Agents

Manny RamirezSI.com released its top 50 MLB free agents. The first team listed is that player’s current team and the second one is SI.com’s “best fit” for that player.

1 CC Sabathia 28 SP Brewers Dodgers
He’s a behemoth, yes, but he proved in ’08 that he might not just be better than Johan Santana, but the most valuable player in baseball. He’ll be rewarded as such, and could turn down Yankee riches to play for a contender in his home state, and to hit every fifth day, which is something he genuinely loves.

2 Mark Teixeira 28 1B Angels Yankees
The guy’s got everything – he’s a young, powerful switch-hitter who plays a Gold Glove first base. Soon he will be able to buy everything, and the Yankees would love to devote a chunk of the revenue from their new ballpark to bring him aboard.

3 Manny Ramirez 36 OF Dodgers Dodgers
He’s like baseball’s version of Catherine Tramell. So enticing, so beautiful to behold, but be careful if you get too close. L.A., of course, is still in the relationship’s first blush, and will probably pay a fortune for a potential ice-picking.

4 Francisco Rodriguez 27 RP Angels Angels
Single-season saves record overshadowed fact that he’s lost velocity on his fastball, doesn’t go more than one inning and was perhaps only the AL’s fifth best closer (after Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan and Soria). Many consider the Mets to be the frontrunner for his services, but they’re on the hook for Billy Wagner’s $10.5 million salary in ’09 and would be wise to pursue a cheaper option.

5 A.J. Burnett 31 SP Blue Jays Yankees
Brittle in the past but threw a career-high 221.1 innings in ’08, which was (guess what?) his contract year. His 231 strikeouts led the American League, and his filthy stuff will have G.M.s salivating — particularly those that lose out in the CC Sabathia sweepstakes.

It’s incredibly ironic that no team would touch Burnett with a 600-foot pole around the All-Star break and now he’s one of the most coveted free agents on the market. The Blue Jays couldn’t have given Burnett away at midseason for a coloring book and a box of crayons.

Now That The World Series Is Over…….

It’s time for one of my favorite times of the year in baseball, the Hot Stove League…a.k.a. the time when players change teams and change the landscape of MLB for the following season. Let’s start by taking a look at the big names that will be moved or signed as free agents in the coming months, and be sure to check back in with us each week during the cold months….

Manny Ramirez—Word is the Dodgers do not want to sign Manny to a 4-5 year deal the way agent Scott Boras would like. That leaves open the very real possibility that Manny could be heading back to the American League where he can DH for a team like (are you ready for this?) Toronto. I don’t know, that just doesn’t seem right, does it? But it sure would tighten up a tough division even more. My feeling is Manny stays in LA for two years or so. The Yankees will also have to make a bid, and you might expect the Mets to as well just to say they did.

CC Sabathia—The Brewers would love nothing more than to re-sign their ace who came over from Cleveland in July and almost led them to the promised land. Well, he did almost single-handedly land the team in the playoffs. CC likes Milwaukee, but yearns for the west coast where he is from. The Dodgers might open their wallet here, especially if Manny goes elsewhere. The Yankees are also expected to bid, so the $$ could go high.

Jake Peavy—The hot rumor is that Peavy is being courted in a trade by the Braves, but GM Frank Wren is not itchy to give up the top prospects the Padres are looking for.

Francisco Rodriguez—The Angels’ closer who saved a major league record 62 saves in 2008, is expected to receive a hefty offer from the Mets to replace Billy Wagner.

Mark Teixeira—The Angels are likely to re-sign him, but if the Yankees do not get Sabathia, expect a run from them as well.

Other news….

Detroit’s Freddy Garcia has filed for free agency after pitching just three games for the Tigers in 2008……Seattle’s Raul Ibanez has also filed…AJ Burnett is likely to opt out of his contract with Toronto, and is expected to do so before next week’s GM meetings….Ken Griffey’s option was declined by the White Sox, who didn’t make it past the first round of the playoffs against Tampa. Griffey should find a home in the American League as a DH….Florida traded 1B Mike Jacobs to Kansas City on Thursday for pitcher Leo Nunez….the Tigers declined the option on Edgar Renteria….the Dodgers’ Jeff Kent is finally expected to retire…..in Brewers news, Ben Sheets has declared free agency, and they have named former A’s manager Ken Macha to replace Ned Yost…the Brew Crew also declined their option on infielder Craig Counsell yesterday.

For Your Consideration: Baseball’s MVP Candidates

Albert PujolsI am confident that both Dustin Pedroia and Albert Pujols had the best all-around years in their respective leagues. Based on their individual performances in the batter’s box and on the field, and considering how they contributed to their teams’ playoff chances, they each deserve to be MVP.

The voting process takes place the Friday before the regular season ends. As a result, even though guys like Derek Jeter and David Ortiz come through with jaw-dropping numbers in the post season, these figures won’t matter to the Baseball Writer’s Association of America—their minds have already been made up.

It’s the regular season that matters. Sports writers use various methods when deciding who gets their vote. Whether their basis is purely statistical or how the player individually affected his team, most can agree on one criterion: The team must have a good record. So, despite having superb seasons, Josh Hamilton and Lance Berkman probably won’t win the award. However, you could make a case for each as to why they should win, and this raises an interesting topic concerning the semantics of “Most Valuable Player.”

Much has been written about how the word “value” isn’t properly defined. Does “value” simply figure into hitting? What about defense? Or attitude in the clubhouse? All affect the performance of a team. You can already see how convoluted the decision-making process can get. Nevertheless, most baseball fans eschew statistical reasoning and data analysis, instead depending on gut instinct. In looking at the winners from the recent past, I believe the writers do as well. With this in mind, a clearly defined rule emerges: How would the team fare without the player in question?

There’s no doubt that a Texas Rangers team without Josh Hamilton would have finished with a worse record. The same goes for Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin, etc., and their respective teams. You can see where I’m going with this. Each team has a keystone player whose absence would greatly hurt their team’s record. Unfortunately, this is why it’s hard to decide who is more valuable. Ryan Howard leads the National League in homeruns and RBIs but is only decent defensively at first base. Albert Pujols’ hitting has also been tremendous; on top of that, he’ll probably win another gold glove. Both the Phillies and the Cardinals would have had drastically different seasons without these players.

But would the Cardinals have fared worse without Pujols? Or the Phillies without Howard? In my opinion, Pujols, with his combination of hitting and fielding, is more of an asset that Howard. Obviously, much of this is based on conjecture—speculating how games and standings would turn out if a certain player wasn’t involved.

This is why critics have called the MVP candidacy of CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, and Francisco Rodriguez “preposterous” and “embarrassing.” I don’t look at it that way. Nobody expected Sabathia and Ramirez to perform they way they have after getting traded. Same goes for Rodriguez surpassing the all-time single-season saves record. Baseball is the only professional sport which gives out separate MVP awards in both leagues (including numerous other accolades). Therein lies the problem—a problem I find intriguing rather than irritating.

Francisco Rodriguez will not win the MVP, but he will be close.

Only three relief pitches have ever won the MVP (Dennis Eckersley was the last to win it in 1992). The Anaheim Angeles are a very similar team to the ’92 Athletics. Rodriguez has already tallied more saves than Eckersley (breaking Bobby Thigpen’s record of 57 in the process). Shouldn’t Rodriguez then win as well? It’s hard to say. To quote Tom Singer of MLB.com:

The Angels have won 55 games by one or two runs; K-Rod has saved 47 of them, and picked up the victory in two others. No one else in the league, obviously, has directly affected as many team wins. By definition, no one else has been as valuable.

He makes a valid point, but I just don’t see it happening. History has shown the voting to be extremely prejudiced against pitchers. Of course, there is the Cy Young Award which recognizes their accomplishments. However, there’s also the batting title, gold gloves, and the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award. Rodriguez is definitely the most valuable player on the Angels. Still, I think the Red Sox would be worse for the wear without Pedroia.

CC Sabathia. You just can’t.

Chew on this: No player has won an MVP Award in a season in which he was traded. After leaving Cleveland for the Cubs, Rick Sutcliffe still managed to win the Cy Young, going 16-1 with his new team. Sabathia will have played in about 12 games with the Brewers. Even though he has helped Milwaukee’s playoff hopes, his time there produces too small a sample to even predict what might have happened. Also, his overall record, which includes his starts with the Indians, does not stand up to Brandon Webb’s of the Diamondbacks.

Manny Ramirez is the National League MVP.

No way. Not this year, and not next year since I don’t see him resigning with the Dodgers (or any NL team). Given a full year with Los Angeles, he would have won, hands down. He’s singlehandedly turned the Dodgers into a playoff team and I believe that merits the MVP votes he will garner. It just wouldn’t be right to give Ramirez the award after playing in only 52 games (maybe something else, like a bulky contract, will suffice). He’s played above average in left field and he’s hitting better than anyone in the league. What’s most important, however, is that he makes his teammates happier and more productive. Without Ramirez, the Dodgers might have fallen behind the Rockies in their division. His arrival has brought a sea change to their organization. This alone should qualify Ramirez for the MVP. Still, as with Sabathia, this sample is just too inconclusive. We’ve seen what Pujols can do in a full year on one team, and in one league.

Perhaps the Most Valuable Player Award should change its name to the Best Position Player Award. That way, both pitchers and the hitters have their own accolade. Until “value” becomes easier to define, and doesn’t steer conversations into “what if” territories, then we should welcome the preposterous and the embarrassing. It’s fun to flirt with the idea of a closer or a late arrival receiving the coveted honor, but the discussion is for the birds. When it’s all said and done, traditional thought will prevail.

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