Nobody should be surprised at the outcome in Starkville on Saturday night. No. 1 Florida (which has struggled in Starkville since its last win there in 1985) got a great effort from its defense, but the Gators struggled at times offensively and Mississippi State gave them a fight before finally falling 29-19.

But if Florida was looking to silence its critics, it certainly didn’t do even tonight to accomplish that. Outside of gaining 88 yards on 22 carries and one rushing touchdown, Tim Tebow wasn’t very good. In fact, one could argue that the only reason this game was close was because Tebow kept the Bulldogs in it by throwing two interceptions that Miss State returned for touchdowns. (He also took a truck load of sacks by holding onto the ball too long.)

Even though the Gators only held on to a 13-10 lead at halftime, this game was never really in doubt. The Bulldogs were horrid offensively and couldn’t sustain drives. Again, the only reason they were even in the game is because their defense gave an outstanding effort and managed to produce two touchdowns.

That said, did Florida do enough to remain No. 1 in the BCS standings? Before you say no, remember that Alabama wasn’t that impressive either. The Tide needed a blocked field goal to hold off Tennessee at home, as they too struggled offensively. No. 3 Texas might have an argument after routing Missouri 41-7 on the road, but it’s highly unlikely that the conservative BCS voters would make a move like that and rank the Longhorns No. 1.

Chances are that Florida will find itself atop the BCS standings for a second consecutive week. But for the second consecutive week, the Gators weren’t all that impressive either.

Considering No. 1 Florida opened as a 24-point favorite, one would assume that they won’t face much of a challenge this Saturday night. Mississippi State is just 3-4 on the year and has lost three of their last four games. Their most significant win came on the road against a Vanderbilt team that is just 2-5 on the year.

But there are several factors that should concern the Gators as they get ready to do battle with the Bulldogs on Saturday night:

- The Gators haven’t won in Starkville since 1985. They were defeated on Mississippi State’s home turf in 1992, 2000 and most recently in 2004.

- Florida could be down three defensive starters, including linebacker Brandon Spikes, and defensive tackles Jaye Howard and Lawrence Marsh. Spikes re-injured his left groin last week and missed most of Florida’s win over Arkansas. With him on the sidelines, the Razorbacks rushed for 133 yards and finished with 357 yards of total offense.

- Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen severed as Florida’s quarterback coach and offensive coordinator from 2005 to 2008. If anyone knows how to exploit Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators’ offense, it would be Mullen.

- Despite their losing record, the Bulldogs have the 13th best rushing offense in the nation and are averaging 219 yards per game on the ground this season. Senior Anthony Dixon has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games, including a 138 and a 139-yard effort in his last two outings.

At the end of the day, Florida will have the better team on Saturday night. Even without Spikes, Howard and Marsh, they have enough depth defensively to limit how effective Mississippi State’s offense can be. But there are more than enough factors that should have Urban Meyer concerned about a potential upset, none bigger than the Gators’ poor showings in previous trips to Starkville.

Will Mississippi State shock the college football word this weekend and knock off the No. 1 team in the nation?

No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
After a hard-fought win over LSU two weeks ago and a gift-wrapped (courtesy of the officials) victory over Arkansas last week, Florida will try to remain undefeated against a Mississippi State team that has had the Gators’ number in Starkville. Florida has dropped their last four games in Starkville and hasn’t won there since 1985. The Gators are too good defensively for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, but with Florida’s lack of offensive firepower, Mississippi State will keep this game close until the end. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is a former offensive coordinator at Florida, so his knowledge of the Gators’ program will aid him on Saturday but in the end, Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to beat Florida this season. Tim Tebow and company haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, so I like the Bulldogs to cover.
Odds: Florida –22.5
Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 13.

No. 13 Penn State at Michigan, 3:30PM ET
The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 1996, which is why the point spread is so low in this matchup. But Penn State has won three straight by a combined score of 107-20 since their home loss to Iowa and they’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a Michigan team that has had their number on the road. The Wolverines are too inconsistent on offense to hang with the Lions for four quarters, especially if they have trouble running the ball against PSU’s solid front seven. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Evan Royster and Darryl Clark will keep the chains moving against a Michigan defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down. This won’t be a blow out because it’s in Ann Arbor, but Penn State will continue its winning ways.
Odds: Penn State –4.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 13.

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No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
Thanks to a few beneficiary calls, the Gators escaped defeat last week at home against Arkansas. While UF’s defense has been outstanding this season (the Gators have the second best defense in the nation), their offense is lacking the same explosion it had in previous seasons. Jeff Demps and Tim Tebow have kept the ground game afloat for Florida, but the Gators have not been able to move the ball easily through the air. Mississippi State doesn’t pose much of an offensive challenge, but the Bulldogs have limited opponents to only 123.08 yards through the air so Florida might not solve its passing woes this week.
Odds: Florida –23.

No. 3 Texas at Missouri, 8:00PM ABC
The Tigers will face their third ranked opponent in as many weeks this Saturday when they host the No. 3 Longhorns. MIZZOU is coming off back-to-back losses against Nebraska and Oklahoma State, but could prove to be a thorn in UT’s side. The Tigers can spread opponents out with their offense and talented senior receiver Danario Alexander often gives defensive backs fits. That said, sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert has thrown five interceptions the past two weeks after throwing none in MIZZOU’s first four games. Texas’ defense played outstanding last week against Oklahoma and might overwhelm Gabbert with their pressure. Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy should have an easier time moving the ball this week than he did last Saturday against the Sooners, although the Tigers’ secondary is only allowing 114.82 passing yards per game this season.
Odds: Texas –13.

No. 6 Iowa at Michigan State, 7:00PM ET
The Hawkeyes might be the least dominating team in the top 10 based on their margin of victories, but they continue to overcome adversity and find ways to win. After beating Wisconsin last week in Madison, Iowa will travel to East Lansing this Saturday to take on a pesky Michigan State team that has won three in a row. The Spartans are averaging almost 30 points a game but they’re going to find it tough to move the ball through the air against the Hawkeyes’ fifth ranked pass defense. Iowa quarterback Richard Stanzi has plenty of critics, but even they can’t deny how efficient he has been this season. He could take advantage of a MSU defense that ranks 90th in pass efficiency.
Odds: Iowa PK.

Oregon State at No. 7 USC, 8:00PM ET
While the Beavers have been a pimple on the Trojans’ ass over the past couple years, they’ve done all of their damage in Corvallis, not Los Angeles. The past two times Oregon State has traveled to So Cal, they were beaten 52-28 and 24-3. The Trojans’ offense has shown a spark the past two games with 30-plus point efforts against California and Notre Dame, respectively. Matt Barkley had his best game of his career last week in South Bend and he could build on that performance against an Oregon State defense that is allowing 373 total yards per game. If the Beavers are to have any success this Saturday, they must get Jacquizz Rodgers some running room.
Odds: USC –20.5.

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