Immediately after the games on Saturday, I wrote the following about tonight’s matchup between Duke and Butler:

Monday night’s matchup will be touted as a David versus Goliath affair, but Duke and Butler are pretty similar in the way they play. Both teams hang their hats on good man-to-man half court defense and efficient, ball-control offense. It should be a low-scoring, tight game. I expect that Duke will be favored by five or six, but Butler is fully capable of pulling the upset. I’m sure the crowd will be pulling for the Bulldogs.

The line started at Duke -7, but has grown to -7.5 with the news that Butler center Matt Howard is questionable to play after suffering the “mildest of mild concussions” (per the Butler trainer). The Bulldogs will need Howard to pull the upset, because Duke is very big down low. Luckily, it looks like Shelvin Mack will play despite missing a good part of the second half against Michigan State with pain in his legs.

Jeff Sagarin pegs Duke as an almost 9-point favorite, so there still is some value with taking the Blue Devils even with the sizable line. Ken Pomeroy gives Duke an 81% chance to win, which is the biggest advantage of any favorite in the tournament since the Wisconsin/Cornell game (and we all know how that turned out).

I’m reluctant to recommend laying the points because Butler has a way of keeping games close. Both teams play at a slow pace, but I have a feeling that Duke will look to push the ball and try to avoid facing the Bulldogs’ excellent man-to-man defense in the half-court. Against West Virginia, Duke won the rebounding battle (+3) and, more importantly, destroyed the Mountaineers from long range (13-25 from 3PT). In fact, they shot almost 53% from the field for the entire game.

To pull the upset, Butler needs to hold its own on the glass and force the Blue Devils to shoot a poor percentage from long range. This is going to be tough to do, especially if Howard is limited or doesn’t play.

These two teams pride themselves on tough defense and good execution on offense. Duke is just a little better at it. Butler should have the crowd on its side, but it’s tough to create much atmosphere at the Final Four and Duke has plenty of experience playing in front of hostile crowds. I see a close game where Duke’s lead oscillates between 3-5 points most of the way and then the Blue Devils may be able to stretch things out if Butler is forced to foul.

As usual, I’ll be tweeting during the game tonight, so be sure to check back at tip-off.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

I’m going to pretend I work for ESPN and answer the questions that the Worldwide Leader asked its college basketball writers.

What are you most looking forward to Saturday?

Seeing just what kind of crowd Butler is able to draw and whether or not it helps Bulldogs beat Michigan State. Final Four crowds are notoriously corporate and laid back, so if the Butler faithful (and the newly converted) can create some real home court atmosphere, it will make things tough for Michigan State. I’ll also be watching how the Bulldogs handle playing in a dome; they’re used to playing in smaller gyms and fieldhouses in the Horizon League.

At the end of the day, whose performance will we be talking about?

There are a long list of possibilities, but Nolan Smith is playing excellent basketball of late. He’s the only Duke guard that will be able to get into the lane and create his own shot, and his floater will be very useful against West Virginia’s zone. And for all of the talk of Jon Scheyer’s “clutch-ness,” Smith isn’t afraid to take the big shot either.

Butler-Michigan State: Who wins and why?

Despite the Spartans’ experience, I think the Bulldogs win a tight one. They’ve already beat two teams (Syracuse, K-State) that are better than Michigan State, so they appear to be the better team. The question is — can they put all the distractions and the sheer magnitude of the game behind them and just play ball? I think they can.

Duke-West Virginia: Who wins and why?

I have a feeling this game will be nip-and-tuck the entire way with the Blue Devils pulling away at the end with a big three and excellent free throw shooting. Even though it was a 2-3, Baylor’s zone will get Duke ready to face the Mountaineers’ 1-3-1. I don’t expect West Virginia to continue to shoot the three like they did against Kentucky — Duke is excellent at guarding the arc.

Be sure to check back around tip-off — I’ll be tweeting during both games.

Keep the faith, people.

I know my official bracket looked rough there for a while, with a spotty performance in the first round and the loss of my overall winner (Kansas) in the second. But with Syracuse, Ohio State and Kansas State losing, along with West Virginia’s win over Kentucky and Duke’s tight win over Baylor, I ended up with two Final Four teams in a year when almost no one will have three or more. That means that if you followed my picks, you’re probably sitting somewhere near the top of your pool. (Anthony Stalter didn’t look at his bracket after Kansas lost and just discovered that he’s in fourth place out of 54 entries and has a shot at second place.)

Anyway, even though I’m a Duke fan, I picked the Mountaineers over the Blue Devils at the beginning of the tournament, and now I’m regretting it a little. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself. Let’s take a closer look at each game and try to predict what’s going to happen on Saturday night.

By now everyone knows that Butler will be playing just a few miles away from campus. The pundits are suggesting that the Bulldogs will have a big homecourt advantage, but I’m not for sure. The Final Four crowd is largely made up of corporate types that are both neutral and non-vocal, so unless the Butler contingent can somehow get a hold of these tickets, I don’t think there will be much of an advantage. However, if Butler wins on Saturday, its fans could buy up all the tickets from the losing teams. This, coupled with a villain in the title game (Duke) could create more atmosphere. Still, it’s not like we’re talking about Indiana or Purdue — I just don’t know that the Butler fan base is that broad.

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Despite the rather lackluster 2009 NCAA tournament, March Madness is – historically speaking – the most exciting sporting event in the country. Still, as I watched the games this year, I noticed that a few things need changing. Here are my top five gripes about college basketball:

1. No more one-and-dones.
I understand why the NBA wants an age limit, but the one-year-out-of-high-school rule is hurting the college game. Amongst the major programs, there is little continuity season to season and it has thrown blue-chip recruiting on its head. Some of the best coaches in the college ranks are reluctant to recruit the top players because they know they’re just going to have a hole to fill the following summer.

Players should be able to declare for the draft directly out of high school. But if they decide to enroll in college, they must stay a minimum of two seasons. Typically, high schoolers that are good enough to be drafted are good enough to stick in the league. If a high schooler enters the draft (but doesn’t hire an agent), he can always pull out and enroll in school if it doesn’t look like he’s going to be drafted in the first round. This is the same rule that college players have to follow. (And yes, I realize that this is the NBA’s fault, but it’s still a problem for college basketball.)

Roy, back up three feet. Your guys will be able to hear you just fine.

2. Get the coaches off the court.
One thing that drives me nuts about college basketball is the leeway that the officials give head coaches. They’re allowed to stomp around the sidelines like petulant children, throwing hissy fits anytime a call doesn’t go their way. Okay, so maybe the refs are instructed to give the coaches some slack on the proverbial leash, but that doesn’t mean that head coaches should be running onto the court to shout instructions to their teams. It seems like every game there is a near-collision between an official running downcourt and a head coach that is stepping on the sideline (or is on the court all together). I’d like to see the official call an automatic technical if he sees the coach step on the sideline – that would clean this up really quickly.

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Wayne Ellington couldn’t miss, Ty Lawson couldn’t drive without getting fouled and Michigan State couldn’t handle the ball — this all added up to a 89-72 win for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina jumped out early and Michigan State simply couldn’t recover. They looked tight; the jumpers weren’t falling and they turned the ball over 21 times, which is a TON. Seemingly every time Ty Lawson put the ball on the floor the officials blew the whistle — he ended up shooting 18 free throws and there were a number of questionable calls. For the most part, the refs called a tight game, and that worked against the Spartans, who are used to the rough and tumble play in the Big Ten. Lawson finished with 21 points, six assists and eight steals.

Michigan State didn’t give up; the Spartans had a few opportunities to cut into the lead, but they missed a bunch of threes and anytime the Tar Heels needed a bucket, someone stepped up and knocked down a shot. Ellington and Danny Green combined to shoot 5 of 6 from long range. It was obvious that the estimated 60,000 Spartan fans in attendance were desperate for something to cheer for — but the run never came.

All in all, it was a pretty boring finale to a pretty boring tournament. There were a few buzzer beaters and several good games, but this year’s tourney didn’t have the drama of years past. I don’t know if it was just bad luck or a lack of mid-majors in the field, but it just wasn’t quite as exciting as usual.

Maybe they need to go to a BCS-type format…

Just kidding.

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach discusses how the poor economy has Michigan fans rooting for their biggest intrastate rival.

Michigan State knows it will be representing more than its school when it plays North Carolina in the NCAA championship game Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit.

The Spartans will also be representing a state and region that have been battered by the country’s poor economy, climbing unemployment rates and crumbling auto industry.

“There are a lot of cities right now that have problems,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “But this is ours. This is our big city in the state. So that’s why I think it’s a little more meaningful for those of us that are from around here.”

Believe it or not, the Spartans’ surprising run to the NCAA championship game is even meaningful for the sports fans who seem to hate them most.

Even in Ann Arbor, where University of Michigan fans only seem to dislike Ohio State more than Michigan State, it seems most of the Wolverines are rooting for the Spartans to beat the Tar Heels on Monday night.

“The first four times Michigan State went to the Final Four, you usually had the crowd here rooting against the Spartans,” said Ron Dreslinski of Ann Arbor, who sat at the bar in The Blue Leprechaun on South University Avenue on Sunday. “This is really the first time you have Michigan people rooting for them. I think it’s because the game is being played in Detroit. They’re kind of the underdog, too, which makes it easier.”

The poor economy in Michigan is a big reason why Michigan fans are rooting for State, but it also helps that Michigan’s most hated rival is Ohio State, not Michigan State. Plus, outside of Duke, UConn and North Carolina are the most universally disliked basketball programs in the country. Add it all up and you have Wolverines rooting for Spartans.

What is this world coming to?

#1-seed North Carolina vs. #2-seed Michigan State
Tip-Off: 9:21 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: North Carolina (95.44), Michigan State (90.07)
Line: UNC – 7.5
After the Tar Heels trounced the Spartans by 35 points on Dec. 3, it was clear that if North Carolina stayed healthy, they’d probably make a return trip to Ford Field. Ty Lawson’s swollen toe threw the team’s chances up in the air, but the Tar Heels stayed focused and “The Toe” — after a scare in the first half against LSU — hasn’t given Lawson any noticeable problems in the tournament. Conversely, after that December meeting, the Spartans were left wondering just how good of a team they were. In their defense, they had just returned from a three-game stint at the Old Spice Classic in Florida and were playing their fourth game in seven days — against the top-ranked team in the country no less. Still, the game was in Detroit, and they had a couple days to recover after beating Wichita State on Nov. 30, so they should have put up more of a fight.

So how do we handicap Monday night’s game? Well, the Tar Heels still have an advantage at every position, but the Spartans are playing with a lot of confidence and Ford Field is still just 92 miles from campus. So there figures to be a lot of green and white in the stands tomorrow night, especially since the UConn and Villanova fans have been looking to dump their tickets before they catch a flight out of town.

Unlike most of the teams in the country, Michigan State does have the athletes to run with North Carolina, but the Spartans are just as content to settle into the half court and run their sets. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has to limit or outplay Ty Lawson at the point. If Lawson wins that matchup, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans. Michigan State can’t pack the lane like they did against UConn. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have been hot, so the MSU defenders will have to stay home. They need to meet Tyler Hansbrough at the free throw line and keep him from establishing deep position in the post. If they can push him out of his comfort zone, the perimeter defenders won’t have to double.

The bottom line is the Spartans have to get the Tar Heels out of their game. Michigan State can throw 10 or 11 players out there, but they should only push the ball when they have an advantage. Otherwise, they should execute their half court offense and hope that those wide open 15-foot jumpers keep falling. Athleticism isn’t an issue; Michigan State can jump as high and run as fast as North Carolina can, so this game will come down to execution. In the end, I think the Tar Heels will have enough to win the game, but I think Michigan State +7.5 is attractive due to the Spartans “sticktoitiveness.” They’re just going to keep coming and coming until the final buzzer sounds.

One of the more compelling storylines leading up to Saturday’s games was what kind of home court advantage Michigan State would enjoy playing just 92 miles from its campus in East Lansing. It turns out they would have a distinct advantage, and as Villanova fans try to sell off their seats this evening, it should be even bigger on Monday night.

Despite Clark Kellogg’s marveling at the sight lines in the dome, I think all March Madness games should be played in arenas. Domes are just too big for basketball, and with the advent of high definition television, there is little reason to go to a Final Four just to sit in the nosebleed seats. Who cares if you were “there”? Wouldn’t you rather watch the game?

Anyway, Tom Izzo came up with a great game plan and his Spartans executed it to perfection, beating UConn, 82-73. First, they had to harass A.J. Price. Anytime Price came off the screen, the help was there, forcing the guard to be a passer, which is not his forte. He went 5 of 20 on the night with only one assist. Next, they collapsed into the lane and dared the other Huskies to shoot the ball from the perimeter. UConn’s main advantage was on the front line, and the Spartans negated that by essentially camping four defenders in the lane. Anytime Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson caught the ball, there were several hands trying to swipe it away. Lastly, Izzo knew his Spartans would have to get on the glass. UConn was clearly unprepared for the type of tenacity that Michigan State brings to rebounding, and it showed in the box score. Sure, Michigan State only had one more offensive board than UConn, but given the size of the Husky front line, the Spartans had no business getting that many.

In the late game, North Carolina simply out-shot and out-defended Villanova en route to an 83-69 victory. The Tar Heels shot 11 of 22 (50%) from long range while the Wildcats shot a pathetic 5 of 27 (19%). Still, Villanova whittled the lead down to five with 18:15 to go in the second half, but the Tar Heels went on a 9-0 run over the next three and a half minutes to push the lead back out to 14. It wasn’t a pretty game, but North Carolina was in control the entire time.

Michigan State and North Carolina met earlier this season at Ford Field and the Tar Heels won by 35 points. This is a different Spartan team, but it will be interesting to see how each squad uses the earlier game for motivation. Does Michigan State think they can beat UNC after getting trounced? (Yes.) Will the Tar Heels get complacent because they already blew the Spartans out once this season? (Doubtful, but you never know.) It should be a partisan crowd and a compelling game.

Check back tomorrow for a complete preview of Monday’s final.

Dear NCAA Men’s Tournament Selection Committee,

This weekend, the Final Four will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, and I want to thank you for another lackluster tournament. The aristocrats of college basketball trampled their opponents en route to the Motor City. Your selection process favors the haves (30 of the 34 at-large bids went to schools from the six largest conferences) and discriminates against the have-nots (four at-large bids to mid-major conferences).

An alarming trend has shown that the number of at-large mid-major schools has dwindled from the high water mark of 12 in 2004 to a low of four schools (Xavier, Dayton, Butler and Brigham Young) playing in this year’s tournament. You’re slowly taking away the madness of March. Please don’t BCS the most anticipated playoff format in all sport.

Your chairman, Mike Slive, proclaimed, “It’s all about who you play, where you play, and how you do,” when describing the criteria for selecting the 65-team field. He added that the committee looks at schools individually and not at their conference affiliation. I beg to differ, as a bailout package was handed to a couple of major conference schools (Arizona and Wisconsin) to salvage their seasons, while the mid-major schools were left standing at the altar.

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