Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 14
Posted by John Paulsen (12/09/2010 @ 4:26 pm)
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.
As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Joe Flacco has been really good lately (267 yards, 2.0 pass TDs over his last seven games) and he has a matchup with the worst pass defense in the league. Good things should happen…Even with Asante Samuel back for the Eagles, I still like Jon Kitna this week. The Eagles have given up 24 pass TDs on the season and this one is shaping up to be a shootout…Josh Freeman should have a nice day against the Redskins, who have struggled all season against the pass. Washington has given up an average of 32 points over the last five games, so Freeman should find the endzone once or twice…Need a spot starter off the waiver wire? Alex Smith is back under center for the 49ers and he has an outstanding matchup against the Seahawks’ 30th-ranked pass defense.
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Waiver Wire Watch, Week 14: Where Tashard Choice says, “Finally.”
Posted by John Paulsen (12/07/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (34.0)
He had a brutal first half in a so-so matchup, but the Vikings’ defense plays pretty tough at home. Over the next three weeks he has CLE, @MIA and NE. That W16 matchup against the Patriots is tasty.
Jon Kitna (14.1)
It wasn’t a great matchup against Indy, but Kitna fared pretty well. He has PHI, WAS and @ARI over the next three weeks, so even without Dez Bryant, he should still be able to post solid numbers down the stretch. Romo’s pending return could be a headache, but I don’t think the Cowboys are going to rush him back.
David Garrard (42.1)
The Jags are running the ball more and more and it’s eating into Garrard’s numbers, though he has rushed for a TD in each of the last two weeks. He’s startable in W14 (OAK) and W16 (WAS).
Sam Bradford (36.3)
Do I see a chink in the rookie’s armor? After a string of five consecutive games with at least 251 yards passing or two TDs, Bradford had his first bad game since Week 5…against the Cardinals no less. I’m not terribly optimistic about his chances against a relatively tough Saints pass defense.
Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
His matchups down the stretch (@SF, ATL, @TB) are pretty favorable, but with Mike Williams 1.0 out, Hasselbeck is running out of options, and fast. Hopefully, Ben Obomanu can shake off that lacerated hand and make it back by Sunday.
Troy Smith (4.4)
After hooking up with Vernon Davis for a long TD, Smith finished with decent numbers on the day. He has a nice matchup this week against the Seahawks, but should be avoided after that (@SD, @STL).
Jason Campbell (6.2)
It’s not always pretty, but Campbell is capable of putting up good fantasy numbers when the stars align. He has two good matchups coming up (@JAX, DEN) before a date with the Colts in W16.
Chad Henne (47.7)
He had three picks against the Browns. What is the Jets’ defense going to do to him?
Drew Stanton (0.3)
He was decent in a tough matchup with the Bears. I wouldn’t want to use him against the Packers this week, but his W15 matchup with an Aqib Talib-less Bucs secondary isn’t a bad matchup.
Kerry Collins (1.2)
Maybe dreadful is too strong of a word to describe Collins’ performance against a sketchy Jags’ pass defense. 169 yards and two TDs…no it’s not too strong. He has the Colts this week (so-so) and the Texans in W15 (great matchup) before traveling to KC.
Jake Delhomme (1.1)
Congratulations to Jake Delhomme, who threw a TD without throwing an interception for the first time this season. Assuming Colt McCoy can’t make it back, he has a decent matchup with the Bills this week.
Jimmy Clausen (1.0)
Very good matchup, but he hasn’t thrown a TD pass since W4, so why are you reading this?
Tarvaris Jackson (0.7)
He threw two TDs and three picks against the Bills. The Vikings would be better off giving him some reps to see where he’s at heading into next season, but they appear to want Favre back under center if he’s healthy. We’ll see.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 14, 2010 NFL Week 14, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 14, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: Where several big names come up small
Posted by John Paulsen (12/06/2010 @ 6:00 am)
I suspect that Week 13 will go down as one of the most frustrating weeks of the season. Not only did several so-called studs put up goat-like numbers, but many leagues were in the final week of their regular seasons so there were more than a few owners in must-win situations. Let’s hope that they didn’t have one (or more) of the guys on this list:
Dwayne Bowe (0-0)
78 points. That was the total of the first matchup between these two teams and, on Sunday, they combined for a measly 16 points. The biggest goat of the game was Bowe, who somehow failed to register a catch against one of the worst pass defenses in the league after posting an average of 7.0-105-1.9 over his last seven games. That is a mind-boggling drop in production for a guy who was the top fantasy wideout over the last two months.
Brandon Lloyd (2-31)
Kyle Orton (117 yards, 0 TD)
Last time he faced the Chiefs, Lloyd caught six passes for 90 yards and two TDs. In his last four games he racked up 413 yards and six TDs. Lloyd reminded the fantasy community why he was one of the most frustrating fantasy players of the mid-00s. Meanwhile, Orton looked dreadful, missing on 19 of his 28 pass attempts and failing to find the endzone. Thanks for that, Kyle.
Chris Johnson (67 total yards, 0 TD)
Over the first 10 weeks, Johnson averaged 107 total yards and 0.9 TDs. We wrote off last week’s miserable outing against the Texans due to the Titans’ problems at QB, but with Kerry Collins back under center, Johnson would get back to normal, right? WRONG. Chris Johnson looked more like Larry Johnson circa 2009. This was not what owners were expecting when they drafted him #1 overall this summer.
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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 13
Posted by John Paulsen (12/02/2010 @ 4:10 pm)
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.
As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Matt Cassel has been on fire of late (12 TDs in his last four games) and he faces a Broncos defense that has allowed the third most points to opposing QBs this season. This one will probably be a shootout. Kyle Orton should also be a very nice start this week…Has Jay Cutler turned a corner? He has played pretty well (9 TDs, 3 INTs) since his Week 8 bye and has a good matchup with the Lions, who have yielded an average of 1.8 pass TDs per game this season…Mark Sanchez didn’t have a great game against the Bengals, but that was a barely mediocre matchup. This week, he has the Pats, who have been absolutely brutal against the pass (allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season).
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Waiver Wire Watch, Week 13: Where we have to talk Frank Gore owners off the ledge
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2010 @ 6:00 am)
It’s Week 13, which means we’re in crunch time in most fantasy leagues. If your roster is a mess, there’s not much we can do at this point, but if you need a win this week to make the postseason, there may be a player or two who can help.
I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (56.6)
If you’re looking for a solid QB to run out there every week the rest of the way, Freeman is your guy. He has two solid matchups (ATL, DET) and two good matchups (WAS, SEA) the rest of the way, so he should be able to give you borderline QB1 numbers over the final month of the fantasy season. His somewhat Week 12 outing against the Ravens marked only the second time all season that he didn’t throw for at least 212 yards or toss two TDs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.4)
The Bills have that Bad News Bears feel about them. I find myself rooting for Buffalo every week. He finished with decent numbers (265 yards, TD, INT) in a terrible matchup, and would have had 300+ and 2 TDs if not for Stevie Johnson’s dropped TD in overtime. The matchup this week isn’t great (@MIN), but Fitzy is still a solid start. I love him in W14 and W16 against the Browns and Patriots, respectively.
Jon Kitna (13.9)
I wouldn’t want to start him this week against an angry Colts’ defense, but his W15 (WAS) and W16 (@ARI) matchups are great, and in W14 he faces an Eagles defense that just got torched by Jay Cutler.
Matt Cassel (49.5)
He may not be the greatest QB in the world, but he’s taking full advantage of Dwayne Bowe’s ascendancy to stud status, tossing 12 TDs in the last four games. With Denver’s lowly pass defense up next, he’s a great pickup this week, though things get tougher in W14 against the Chargers.
Sam Bradford (30.6)
I watched quite a bit of the STL/DEN game, and Bradford is cool, calm and collected, especially for a rookie. I’m waiting for one of those nightmare games, but it just hasn’t come. His last ‘bad’ game was in Week 5 against the Lions (215 yards, 2 INTs), but other than that, he has thrown at least one TD in every game and has tossed five TDs in the last two weeks. He has a great matchup with ARI this week and is startable the rest of the way outside of a W14 date with the Saints.
David Garrard (47.3)
It wasn’t pretty through the air in a terrible matchup, but Garrard had a brilliant TD run to save an otherwise forgettable fantasy day. The Titans aren’t a great matchup, so Garrard is just a mediocre start this week. He has nice matchups in W14 (OAK) and W16 (WAS), however.
Chad Henne (47.7)
Henne had a nice outing (307 yards, 2 TDs, INT) in a good matchup against the Raiders, and should find more success through the air this week against the Browns. In fact, the rest of his schedule is pretty nice, outside of a W14 road trip to face the Jets.
Matt Hasselbeck (14.1)
I don’t like his matchup this week (CAR), but otherwise, Hasselbeck has decent matchups to close the season.
Jason Campbell (6.6)
It looks like Bruce Gradkowski is out again, so Campbell should take over. His matchup this week is poor, but things ease up in W14 (@JAX) and W15 (DEN).
Derek Anderson (3.7)
Troy Smith (4.7)
Jake Delhomme (1.2)
Jimmy Clausen (0.9)
If you are in a situation where you’re considering picking up any of these guys, I feel for you. I really do.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 13, 2010 NFL Week 13, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 13, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 12: Where that noise you hear is the sound of fantasy owners tripping over each other to pick up Toby Gerhart
Posted by John Paulsen (11/29/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Sorry for the long title, but I like to use the “that noise you hear…” intro whenever I can. Clearly the biggest fantasy news from the early games is Adrian Peterson‘s ankle injury. He was on his way to a huge day (7 touches, 70 yards, TD) before the injury, but could not return. Toby Gerhart (24 touches, 81 yards, TD) did an adequate job of fillling in. With the Bills on tap in Week 13, Gerhart will be a hot pickup this week, and if AP’s sprain is of the “high” variety, he could miss the remainder of the fantasy season. Given the tasty matchup with the Redskins’ woeful secondary, Brett Favre (173 yards), Percy Harvin (5-32) and Sidney Rice (1-20) were big disappointments this week. For Washington, it looks like Mike Shanahan is up to his old tricks. After carrying the load the past few games, Keiland Williams (6 touches, 26 yards) got the start but took a backseat to James Davis (6 carries, 11 yards), who was equally ineffective.
Speaking of surprises, Carolina put up a better offensive effort than expected, thanks to Mike Goodson (22 touches, 131 yards, TD) who started ahead of Jonathan Stewart (12 carries, 98 yards), who ran the ball much better (8.2 ypc), but Goodson brings a lot of value in the passing game. This is shaping up as a timeshare the rest of the way.
The Bills gave the Steelers a run, thanks to a workman-like effort by Fred Jackson (17 touches, 163 yards, TD) who is approaching must-start territory. RBs have fared horribly against the Pittsburgh defense this season, but Jackson averaged 4.9 ypc and racked up 104 yards and a TD in the passing game. Steve Johnson (7-68, 15 target) is clearly Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s (265 yards, TD, INT) favorite receiver, but he dropped a 50-yard game-winning bomb in OT that would have given him some gaudy numbers. Keep him in your starting lineup despite the drop(s).
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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 12
Posted by John Paulsen (11/24/2010 @ 4:40 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.
As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

I like Shaun Hill again this week given his matchup at home with the Pats’ 31st-ranked defense…Eli Manning is a little short on weapons, but the Jaguars have given up 246 yards and 2.0 pass TDs per game this season and have enough offense to keep the Giants throwing…Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s matchup isn’t as bad as it looks. The Steelers are 22nd against the pass, though they’ve only given up 1.1 TDs per game this season. Still, I think Buffalo’s plan will be to spread Pittsburgh out and throw, throw, throw…Sam Bradford figures to have another solid outing against a Denver defense that has given up an average of 2.0 pass TDs per game on the year.
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Waiver Wire Watch, Week 12: Where Maurice Morris is fantasy relevant once again
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Shaun Hill (8.8)
In his last six full games, Hill has averaged 290 yards and 1.8 TDs, so why is he still available in 91% of ESPN leagues. He has a great matchup this week (NE) and the fantasy playoffs (@TB, @MIA) look pretty good too.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (32.4)
The Bengals weren’t a great matchup for Fitzy, but he shredded them to the tune of 316 yards and four TDs in a big comeback win. He has proven that he’s startable even in bad matchups, but Week 14 (CLE) and Week 16 (NE) look tasty, assuming the weather in Buffalo cooperates (and that’s a BIG assumption).
Josh Freeman (59.1)
Freeman has now thrown two TDs in each of his last three games, and has thrown for at least 212 yards or two TDs in nine of 10 games this season. In other words, he’s been really consistent, and with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule (@WAS, DET, SEA), he’s a nice guy to have on the roster.
Sam Bradford (28.4)
Bradford is posting the best rookie season of any QB since Matt Ryan. He had two more TDs (along with 233 yards) against the Falcons on Sunday, and has a couple of nice matchups (@DEN, @ARI) coming up. And while other QBs will be battling the elements, Bradford will be playing indoors during the entire fantasy playoffs (@NO, KC, SF).
Jon Kitna (11.7)
Kitna has posted back-to-back three-TD games in the last two weeks against a pair of pretty good pass defenses. The next two weeks (NO, @IND) are kind of tough, but Week 15 (WAS) and 16 (@ARI) are tantalizing, assuming Tony Romo is still sidelined.
Matt Cassel (43.8)
After a tremendous 469-yard, four-TD effort in Week 10, Cassel posted a solid 193 yards and two scores against the Cardinals. The schedule for the next two weeks is nice (@SEA, DEN) and he wouldn’t be a terrible start in Week 15.
David Garrard (53.3)
It wasn’t pretty, but Garrard mustered 254 yards and two scores against CLE, though he did turn the ball over four times. He has a terrible matchup this week (@NYG), but can be used in Week 14 (OAK) and Week 16 (WAS) as part of a QBBC.
Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
He posted good numbers (366 yards, TD) in a bad matchup, and other than a semi-tough matchup against the Panthers pass D in Week 13, his schedule is quite favorable down the stretch.
Bruce Gradkowski (0.9)
He replaced the ineffective Jason Campbell and is likely to be the starter going forward. He has nice matchups in Week 14 (@JAX) and 15 (DEN).
Tyler Thigpen (0.9)
Okay, he looked pretty awful against the Bears, but everyone is struggling against Chicago’s pass defense right now. With OAK, CLE, BUF and DET up in the next five weeks, Thigpen isn’t a bad guy to use in deeper leagues.
Derek Anderson (3.8)
He hasn’t been terrible lately, throwing for one TD in each of the last four games. Other than a Week 15 game in Carolina, the schedule looks pretty nice down the stretch.
Colt McCoy (4.2)
He has accounted for one TD (two pass, one rush) in each of the last three games, but other than a Week 14 trip to Buffalo, the schedule is pretty rough.
Brian St. Pierre (0.1)
Well, the schedule is pretty nice, so there’s that…
Rusty Smith (0.0)
He’s taking over for the Titans at the right time, with the Texans and Jags up the next two weeks. Throw in another date with Houston in Week 15, and Smith could post surprisingly decent numbers down the stretch.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 12, 2010 NFL Week 12, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 12, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: Where Buffalo continues to be a gold mine of fantasy talent
Posted by John Paulsen (11/22/2010 @ 7:00 am)
It was a wild and wacky set of early games, highlighted by the Bills comeback against the Bengals. Ryan Fitzpatrick (316 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) finished with nice numbers in a bad matchup against a Cincy DT that has been stingy against QBs this season. He has developed into a bona fide Top 10 fantasy QB this season and usually puts up big numbers because the Bills always seem to be playing from behind. Steve Johnson (8-137-3) had another huge day, and now has nine TD catches on the season. Donald Jones (5-70-1) looks like he has taken over Roscoe Parrish‘s role in the slot, so he could be an interesting pickup going forward. Fred Jackson (129 total yards, 2 TDs) was terrific and should be a fine RB2, even when C.J. Spiller returns.
Down in Dallas, the Cowboys’ offense continued to roll, and Jon Kitna (147 yards, 3 TDs, 1 rush TD) has looked good the last two weeks. He has a couple of tough matchups in the next two weeks, but his schedule during the fantasy playoffs is favorable. He didn’t throw for much yardage, which means there weren’t any standout performances by his wide receivers, even though Dez Bryant (3-8-1) and Miles Austin (2-7-2) both scored. Felix Jones gained 86 yards but failed to score, which was disappointing.
News broke on Sunday morning that Clinton Portis (46 total yards) was going to get the start, but he re-injured his hamstring and Keiland Williams (29 touches, 95 yards) wasn’t terribly productive in his place. On the other side of the ball, Randy Moss (0-0) laid another egg while Nate Washington (5-117) took advantage of a suspect Redskins secondary. I think it’s time to sit Moss down until he shows us something. This was a terrific matchup and he did absolutely nothing. He was targeted just three times and almost scored on a long TD but was called for offensive pass interference. Vince Young (165 yards) tore a ligament in his hand and may need surgery. Even if he doesn’t, the Titans have already announced that he lost his starting job due to his behavior during and after the game.
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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 11
Posted by John Paulsen (11/18/2010 @ 6:45 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Peyton Manning or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.
As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Shaun Hill didn’t look particularly sharp against Buffalo last week, but we’ll write that up to being a little rusty after the layoff. He still finished with 323 yards and a score, so it’s not like he was a big disappointment. This week, he faces the Cowboys, who have given up an average of 2.2 pass TDs per game this season…I wouldn’t say that I trust Mark Sanchez, but against the Texans’ terrible pass defense (301 yards, 2.4 pass TDs allowed), he’s bound to finish with nice numbers. Besides, he has accounted for five TDs (three pass, two rush) in the last two games, so he’s playing pretty well…What Jon Kitna and the Cowboy offense did in a tough matchup last week against the Giants has renewed my faith. The Lions are mediocre against the pass, but I suspect that this one might be a shootout. Kitna should have a nice fantasy day.
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