After each fantasy football season, I like to do something of a post-mortem by looking at certain stats that might give me a clearer picture of what in the hell just happened. One such stat is fantasy points per touch, which takes the total (non-PPR) fantasy points divided by the sum of the player’s carries and catches.

Here’s a look at the top 20 RBs (with at least 150 total touches) ranked by fantasy points per touch.

When trying to predict a player’s outlook, I always go back to the old fantasy addage, “Talent + Opportunity = Success.” This stat gives us an idea of a player’s talent by answering the question — how productive was this player with the touches he received? If a back is listed here, it indicates that he may very well have the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB in the NFL if he were to receive the appropriate amount of touches.

A few takeaways:

- Brandon Jacobs can run the ball. His numbers here are a little skewed due to the nine TDs he scored in 147 carries, but he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and should be the feature back somewhere even if Ahmad Bradshaw is the better all around back. 2010 marks the third season in the last four that Jacobs averaged 5.0-plus yards per carry, so his poor 2009 numbers (3.6 ypc) look to be more of an aberration than a trend.

- Jamaal Charles is really, really good. If not for the presence of Thomas Jones, he would be a top 2 or 3 RB heading into the 2011 season. As it stands, I suspect he’ll be a mid-first round pick.

- Ryan Mathews has what it takes to be a very good RB2, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs RB2 touches. His teammate, Mike Tolbert, vultured his touchdowns and will do so again if he’s still a Charger next season.

- BenJarvus Green-Ellis figures to be a sleeper heading into the 2011 season. He’s a touchdown machine and a good runner (4.4 ypc), but Belichick’s fickleness at the RB position will likely depress the Law Firm’s value a bit. He should be a very solid RB2 next season.

- Peyton Hillis outperformed Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Michael Turner on a per touch basis. Hillis should be the Browns’ feature back heading into 2011, and should continue to be productive even if Cleveland moves to a West Coast offense since he has the pass-catching skills to be effective out of the backfield.

- Michael Bush could be a star with a new team. He’s a free agent this summer, so if the Raiders don’t resign him (though they should), he could turn into a fantasy RB2 if he lands with the right team.

- Maybe Tim Hightower should be the Cardinals’ feature back. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has good hands out of the backfield. People complain about his breakaway speed, but he had an 80-yard run this season. In 292 career carries, Beanie Wells has a career long run of 33 yards.

Anyway, the game goes like this: Each week, you pick one QB, two RBs, two WRs, a TE, a K and a DT to start. Once you use a player, he’s gone for the remainder of the contest, so it takes a little strategy to ensure that you have good options for the entire run.

Scoring is fairly standard, though they award six points for passing TDs and one point for every two receptions (for WRs).

Mike Farley, who writes those NFL award power rankings which post on the weekend, has set up a league and everyone is welcome to join. (It’s free.) Just hit this link and set up your profile. It looks like the site is waiting for the final playoff rosters from the league. Once those are in, we can set up our lineups. Here’s your chance to beat me (and Anthony Stalter) in a game of skill.

HEROES

Danny Woodhead
Rob Gronkowski
I started both of these players in the aforementioned title game, and they stepped up big. Woody scored on a 29-yard run early in the game and finished with 125 total yards, while Gronkowski went for 4-54-2 with Aaron Hernandez sidelined. Gronk became a very solid TE1 start once Hernandez was ruled out, but Woody was a fringe guy that fantasy owners were running out there and hoping for the best. He delivered.

Matt Forte
Johnny Knox
It took a certain amount of courage to start Forte this week given his matchup with a good Jets rush defense and his spotty production at times. But he gained 169 total yards and scored on a 22-yard run. I was going against Knox in the aforementioned title game, which is why I’m still sweating that win out. Knox caught two TDs and racked up 92 yards through the air while facing Darrelle Revis and a pretty good Jets’ pass defense.

Aaron Rodgers
We expected a good game out of Rodgers, but not 404 yards and four TDs against a Giants’ defense that had been a bad matchup for opposing QBs this season.

Jamaal Charles
Dwayne Bowe
I thought I might be listing Charles here when the week started but I honestly didn’t see Bowe’s huge day coming. He had caught just three passes in the previous three games, but for those who kept the faith (or were forced to start him), he delivered with 6-153-1. Too bad his W14 and W15 production (3-56 total) probably meant that those fantasy owners weren’t playing in the title game. On a side note, Jamaal Charles is a stud. He had 117 total yards and two TDs on just 17 touches.

Mike Thomas
I have a buddy who had to run Thomas out there in semi-desperation and the guy delivered with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.

Carson Palmer
Did anyone start Carson Palmer in a one-QB league in a terrible matchup against the Chargers without his two best WRs? Anyone? Anyone? The guy posted 269 yards and threw four TDs. (By the way, fantasy owners should keep an eye on Jerome Simpson for next season.)

Tim Tebow
I’ll be apologizing a little later for some bad advice I gave out regarding a certain Jacksonville running back, but I will take a bow here. I liked Tebow this week given his matchup and he delivered with 308 passing yards and threw for a TD while running for another.

Josh Freeman
I might be saving the best for last. Freeman tossed two TDs in the first half, and seeing as he hadn’t thrown for more than two TDs all season, fantasy owners probably wouldn’t have been surprised if he were done for the day. Yeah, well…he wasn’t. Freeman tossed three more TDs in the second half as the Bucs uncharacteristically kept throwing even though they were playing with a lead the entire second half. Throw in 237 yards and 23 rushing yards (an overlooked part of Freeman’s fantasy game) and you have the makings of a great fantasy day.

GOATS

Ryan Fitzpatrick and any WR in the NE/BUF game
Steve Johnson posted 5-58, but otherwise this was a very quiet game for wide receivers. Deion Branch (2-25), Wes Welker (3-19) and my super-deep sleeper of the week, David Nelson (0-0), were all very quiet. Ryan Fitzpatrick also deserves mention as a disappointment — he had 251 yards passing, but threw three picks and didn’t throw a TD (in what was shaping up to be a great matchup with the Pats’ secondary).

Anquan Boldin
2-15. Hello? Anquan, are you there? Yeah, the fantasy playoffs are going on and you only managed 6-58 over the last three weeks. Thanks for nothing, man.

Peyton Hillis
I try not to be alarmist about midweek injuries with stud players, but the news surrounding Hillis this week wasn’t great and I should have listened. Still, it’s tough to take a top 5 fantasy RB and rank him in the mid-teens. He’s in the top 5 for a reason. But the Ravens shut him down (40 total yards) on Sunday.

Chris Johnson
I started CJ2K in the aforementioned title game, which is part of the reason I’m sweating this win out. He only gained 58 rushing yards as the Titans pretty much abandoned the run as the Chiefs jumped out early in the game. Still, we CJ owners believe that he should be used in the passing game when Tennessee falls behind, but he had nary a catch on just two targets. Sigh.

Rashad Jennings
Time for me to apologize. I was very high on Jennings. Top 10 high, given the way the Jags were running the ball of late, MJD’s absence, the Redskins’ defense and Jennings’ ability. But sometimes in fantasy football, all the stars can align for a big game and for one reason or another, the player just can’t deliver. In this case, the Redskins’ rush defense really stepped up, holding the Jags to just 3.4 ypc and Jennings to just 2.1 ypc. He did catch four passes for 29 yards, but that’s small consolation for PPR owners.

Vincent Jackson
Sorry, V-Jax, but 4-54 just doesn’t cut it given your matchup and lack of passing options for Philip Rivers. Freaking Legedu Naaneee outgained you (4-59). Sigh.

It’s week 16 and if your team is still alive, it’s not time to get cute. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Aaron Rodgers or Chris Johnson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

The Seahawks have been brutal against the pass, so I’d expect another good fantasy line from Josh Freeman, who has been very steady this season…Believe it or not, I have Tim Tebow ranked in the top 10 this week. He played pretty well against the Raiders last week and this week he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has given up an average of 275 yards and 2.2 pass TDs per game. I wouldn’t expect that yardage from Tebow, but 200 passing yards plus 2-3 total TDs is well within reach against Houston’s secondary…Need another sleeper? Rex Grossman has a nice matchup with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked pass defense.

I was down on Rashard Mendenhall last week due to his bad matchup and lack of recent production. But he managed 100 yards and a TD, so my faith is renewed. This week he has the Panthers, who are ranked 23rd against the rush…LeGarrette Blount has a nice matchup with a Seattle defense that has given up 117 rush yards and almost one rush TD per game this season…I think both Ryan Torain (vs. JAX) and Fred Jackson (vs. NE) should post good fantasy numbers (80 yards and a TD?) in good matchups…Tashard Choice figures to get plenty of work in a great matchup with Arizona’s 30th-ranked rush defense, especially if Felix Jones can’t go. In fact, if Felix is out, I’ll be moving Choice up several spots.

There’s always the chance that Beligenius comes up with some smothering defensive gameplan, but according to the numbers, Stevie Johnson is a very good play this week. New England had been playing better pass defense of late, but Green Bay had its way with the Patriot secondary, so Johnson should have a nice game…I love Mike Williams (TB) this week. Seattle is terrible against the pass so he should score at least one TD on Sunday…Vincent Jackson is a must-start against the Bengals, who have given up a lot of fantasy points to opposing WRs this season…Need a deep sleeper? David Nelson of Buffalo figures to have another nice game as the Pats’ defense focuses on Stevie Johnson.

The Chargers have the top ranked pass defense in the league and are the worst fantasy matchup for opposing QBs. Don’t start Carson Palmer, especially since he’s without Terrell Owens…Eli Manning was great (fantasy-wise) last week against Eagles, but the going figures to be tougher against a desperate Packer defense that is ranked 3rd in the league against the pass…Shaun Hill is back under center for the Lions, but this isn’t the week to start him. Miami has been good against opposing QBs this season and Hill is a mediocre starting QB at best.

I’ve been on the Jonathan Stewart bandwagon the last few weeks, but a matchup with the top-ranked Pittsburgh run defense puts the kibosh on all of that…I’d once again steer clear of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene given their recent production and their matchup with the Bears’ 3rd-ranked rush defense…I’m a little iffy on Peyton Hillis, who hasn’t scored a TD in three weeks and has been missing practice this week. The Ravens have only allowed five rush TD all season and are 5th in yards against, so they figure to focus in on the Browns’ one-dimensional attack.

I’d steer clear of Chad Ochocinco this week. Not only does he have a terrible matchup, but he’s reportedly only going to play about half his normal snaps due to a foot injury…I’m not optimistic about Santonio Holmes. He and Mark Sanchez have cooled off considerably and making matters worse, he has a bad matchup against the Bears and is battling a turf toe injury…Johnny Knox caught a deep ball against the Vikings, but he’ll be visiting Revis Island on Sunday and conditions at Soldier Field could be messy.

Welcome to an abbreviated version of the Waiver Wire Watch. It’s Week 16, and most fantasy teams have been eliminated or on cruise control, so instead of listing virtually every player available on the waiver wire, I’m just going to highlight a few players at each position that might be able to help fantasy teams in Week 16. As always, I’m going to limit my scope to those players available in at least 40% (or thereabout) of ESPN leagues. I’ll put the player’s percentage-owned next to their name.

Let’s start with the quarterback position, where I still find it amazing that Josh Freeman (69.8) is still available in 30% of leagues. Not only has he been very consistent this season, but he has a great matchup with the Seahawks in Week 16. I suspect he’ll be in my Top 12 when my rankings come out on Wednesday…Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.3) has the Patriots at home this week, and barring a snow storm, that’s shaping up to be a pretty good matchup. New England showed on Sunday night that its pass defense still leaves something to be desired…David Garrard (46.4) had a strong game against the Colts and has a terrific W16 matchup with the Redskins’ porous pass defense…Need a deep sleeper? Both Tim Tebow (4.0) and Rex Grossman (0.3) have nice matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, respectively. I wouldn’t trust either guy over a more established option, but if you’re desperate, you could do worse. These are some bad pass defenses we’re talking about.

At running back, things are pretty thin, as usual. Ryan Torain (66.6) will be flirting with a Top 10 ranking this week given his matchup with Jacksonville…Tashard Choice (17.8) bounced back from a disappointing W14 outing against the Eagles with 15 carries for 53 yards and a TD against the Redskins. He should get a similar workload against the Cards in W16…Donald Brown (64.2) had a breakout game against the Jaguars, and the Raiders have had trouble stopping the run this season…Rashad Jennings (15.7) gained 64 yards through the air in W15 and figures to be involved against a struggling Washington run defense…Maurice Morris (4.6) doesn’t have a great matchup, but he got starter’s touches in W15 and produced 109 rushing yards and even found the endzone…Toby Gerhart (6.5) will probably be back in a backup role in W16, but if the Vikings decide to rest Adrian Peterson again, he could make some hay against the Eagles.

At wide receiver, there are probably a few players out there who can help. Vincent Jackson (68.5) and Big Mike Williams (66.1) are obvious choices with favorable matchups…Davone Bess (25.2) came up big in PPR formats last week and has another pretty nice matchup with the Lions in W16…Anthony Armstrong (3.3) had his first 100-yard game of the season against the Cowboys and should be able to have a nice day against the Jags this week…I mentioned David Nelson (0.1) last week and he went out and caught three passes for 61 yards and a TD against the Dolphins. I’d expect a similar line against the Pats this week…Mike Thomas (21.2) has been relatively quiet lately, but with the Redskins up next, he might have a big game…Blair White (5.1) figures to get some of Austin Collie’s targets and is a fingers-crossed start against the Raiders this week…Josh Morgan (2.6) seems to be coming on. He has 10-188-1 over the last two weeks and has a good matchup with the Rams’ pass defense this week.

At tight end, both Aaron Hernandez (56.0) and Rob Gronkowski (37.3) have a chance to put up some numbers against the Bills, who have struggled against opposing TEs this season…Owen Daniels (47.4) looks pretty good since coming back from injury, and has nine catches for 136 yards over the last two weeks. His matchup with the Broncos is favorable…Jimmy Graham (1.8) has been a little hit or miss this year, but he had two TDs last wek and has gone for 72+ yards and/or a TD in four of his last six games.

Welcome to another edition of Heroes and Goats, where we highlight (and lowlight) some of the best (and worst) performances of Week 15. Needless to say, we’re in crunch time now, as most leagues are holding their semifinals this week. So now is the time for studs to play like studs. Let’s see who did, and who didn’t…

HEROES

Michael Vick
Vick did next to nothing in the first half, as the Giants defense kept him contained for the first two quarters. But he had a monster second half, finishing with three pass TDs and rushing for another (along with 130 rushing yards). I had a comfortable lead in one league and Vick single-handedly erased it in the second half. Grrr.

Ray Rice
Big things were expected of Rice this week, but I don’t think his owners saw 233 total yards and two TDs coming. He ran over, around and through the Saints defense this week and is going to send more than a few fantasy teams to the finals next week.

Jason Witten
Witten owners have to be loving him right now. He caught 10 passes for 140 yards and a TD in a time where TE production has been severely lacking. He has 32 catches and four TDs in his last four games.

Santana Moss
Moss was a really iffy start this week with Rex Grossman under center, but he seemed to thrive with ‘Sexy Rexy,’ catching eight passes for 72 yards and two scores. I was fortunate that I plugged him in for Danny Woodhead just before kickoff.

Austin Collie
I doubt we’re going to see Collie again this season after he took another hard hit in the middle of the field. But boy was he good before he was knocked out. He racked up eight catches for 82 yards and two TDs.

Jamaal Charles*
I had Charles ranked #12 this week thanks to Matt Cassel’s iffy status, but with an 80-yard run late in the game, Charles sealed his status as an elite RB1 option. He finished with 153 total yards and a TD.

Brandon Marshall
Marshall has been really spotty this season and wasn’t an elite option heading into Week 15, but he caught 11 passes for 106 yards and a TD against the Bills and came up big for those fantasy owners that kept the faith.

Mario Manningham
Jeremy Maclin*
Overshadowed on their own teams, both Manningham (8-113-2) and Maclin (7-59-2) came up big for their respective teams. Manningham did have a bad fumble that helped to fuel Philly’s comeback, so Vick and Maclin owners should thank him.

Rashard Mendenhall*
In a terrible matchup, Mendy racked up 100 yards and a score, so owners who were forced to start him should be happy. This is a case where the player’s talent overcame a tough rush defense.

* Players who were goats last week

GOATS

Peyton Hillis
Really? 82 yards and zero TDs against the Bengals? The yardage was okay, but Hillis owners were expecting a TD or two from their stud this week. After running roughshod over the league this season, Hillis failed to find the endzone in the last three weeks.

Terrell Owens
He had a great matchup, but left the game without a catch with a torn meniscus. Season over.

Arian Foster
He was shaken up in the second half, but wasn’t getting much done when he was playing. He finished with 61 total yards and failed to score.

Maurice Jones-Drew
He has been on a tear of late, gaining 100+ yards in six straight games, so of course he’d have a big game against the Colts, who always struggle against the run, right? Wrong. He posted just 68 total yards without a score. Sigh.

LeSean McCoy
Ahmad Bradshaw
Given the way these two were playing recently, fantasy owners had to be expecting more than 157 total yards and zero TDs combined from this duo.

Tim Hightower
My deepest apologies to anyone who started Timmy on my advice this week. (I had him at #19 or #20 for most of the week.) He got a ton of carries last week and had a great matchup with the Panthers’ defense, but only saw nine touches all day.

Knowshon Moreno
Moreno had a great matchup and looked like he was primed for a big day, but left the game early with an injury to his side. Ugh.