After each fantasy football season, I like to do something of a post-mortem by looking at certain stats that might give me a clearer picture of what in the hell just happened. One such stat is fantasy points per touch, which takes the total (non-PPR) fantasy points divided by the sum of the player’s carries and catches.

Here’s a look at the top 20 RBs (with at least 150 total touches) ranked by fantasy points per touch.

When trying to predict a player’s outlook, I always go back to the old fantasy addage, “Talent + Opportunity = Success.” This stat gives us an idea of a player’s talent by answering the question — how productive was this player with the touches he received? If a back is listed here, it indicates that he may very well have the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB in the NFL if he were to receive the appropriate amount of touches.

A few takeaways:

- Brandon Jacobs can run the ball. His numbers here are a little skewed due to the nine TDs he scored in 147 carries, but he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and should be the feature back somewhere even if Ahmad Bradshaw is the better all around back. 2010 marks the third season in the last four that Jacobs averaged 5.0-plus yards per carry, so his poor 2009 numbers (3.6 ypc) look to be more of an aberration than a trend.

- Jamaal Charles is really, really good. If not for the presence of Thomas Jones, he would be a top 2 or 3 RB heading into the 2011 season. As it stands, I suspect he’ll be a mid-first round pick.

- Ryan Mathews has what it takes to be a very good RB2, but he needs to stay healthy and he needs RB2 touches. His teammate, Mike Tolbert, vultured his touchdowns and will do so again if he’s still a Charger next season.

- BenJarvus Green-Ellis figures to be a sleeper heading into the 2011 season. He’s a touchdown machine and a good runner (4.4 ypc), but Belichick’s fickleness at the RB position will likely depress the Law Firm’s value a bit. He should be a very solid RB2 next season.

- Peyton Hillis outperformed Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Michael Turner on a per touch basis. Hillis should be the Browns’ feature back heading into 2011, and should continue to be productive even if Cleveland moves to a West Coast offense since he has the pass-catching skills to be effective out of the backfield.

- Michael Bush could be a star with a new team. He’s a free agent this summer, so if the Raiders don’t resign him (though they should), he could turn into a fantasy RB2 if he lands with the right team.

- Maybe Tim Hightower should be the Cardinals’ feature back. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has good hands out of the backfield. People complain about his breakaway speed, but he had an 80-yard run this season. In 292 career carries, Beanie Wells has a career long run of 33 yards.

Check out PlayoffBlitz.com. League sizes are unlimited, and you can set it up so that the commish pays $20 and invites owners for free, or you can set it up so that each league member pays $5. (The first option is a better deal for leagues with more than five members.) There are no prizes, but if you have your own league, you can probably set up dues/prizes offline and just use the site to handle the rosters and results.

Anyway, the game goes like this: Each week, you pick one QB, two RBs, two WRs, a TE, a K and a DT to start. Once you use a player, he’s gone for the remainder of the contest, so it takes a little strategy to ensure that you have good options for the entire run.

Scoring is fairly standard, though they award six points for passing TDs and one point for every two receptions (for WRs).

Mike Farley, who writes those NFL award power rankings which post on the weekend, has set up a league and everyone is welcome to join. (It’s free.) Just hit this link and set up your profile. It looks like the site is waiting for the final playoff rosters from the league. Once those are in, we can set up our lineups. Here’s your chance to beat me (and Anthony Stalter) in a game of skill.

Welcome to the third edition of “Heroes & Goats” where we identify a few borderline players who stepped up big in the fantasy playoff along with a few who were major disappointments. If you’re like me and are sweating out a championship game — I’m up 36 in one league against Drew Brees and Garrett Hartley tomorrow night, which puts me in a precarious position — you’ll no doubt see a few familiar names below. Let’s start with our heroes.

HEROES

Danny Woodhead
Rob Gronkowski
I started both of these players in the aforementioned title game, and they stepped up big. Woody scored on a 29-yard run early in the game and finished with 125 total yards, while Gronkowski went for 4-54-2 with Aaron Hernandez sidelined. Gronk became a very solid TE1 start once Hernandez was ruled out, but Woody was a fringe guy that fantasy owners were running out there and hoping for the best. He delivered.

Matt Forte
Johnny Knox
It took a certain amount of courage to start Forte this week given his matchup with a good Jets rush defense and his spotty production at times. But he gained 169 total yards and scored on a 22-yard run. I was going against Knox in the aforementioned title game, which is why I’m still sweating that win out. Knox caught two TDs and racked up 92 yards through the air while facing Darrelle Revis and a pretty good Jets’ pass defense.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s week 16 and if your team is still alive, it’s not time to get cute. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Aaron Rodgers or Chris Johnson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

The Seahawks have been brutal against the pass, so I’d expect another good fantasy line from Josh Freeman, who has been very steady this season…Believe it or not, I have Tim Tebow ranked in the top 10 this week. He played pretty well against the Raiders last week and this week he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has given up an average of 275 yards and 2.2 pass TDs per game. I wouldn’t expect that yardage from Tebow, but 200 passing yards plus 2-3 total TDs is well within reach against Houston’s secondary…Need another sleeper? Rex Grossman has a nice matchup with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked pass defense.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to an abbreviated version of the Waiver Wire Watch. It’s Week 16, and most fantasy teams have been eliminated or on cruise control, so instead of listing virtually every player available on the waiver wire, I’m just going to highlight a few players at each position that might be able to help fantasy teams in Week 16. As always, I’m going to limit my scope to those players available in at least 40% (or thereabout) of ESPN leagues. I’ll put the player’s percentage-owned next to their name.

Let’s start with the quarterback position, where I still find it amazing that Josh Freeman (69.8) is still available in 30% of leagues. Not only has he been very consistent this season, but he has a great matchup with the Seahawks in Week 16. I suspect he’ll be in my Top 12 when my rankings come out on Wednesday…Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.3) has the Patriots at home this week, and barring a snow storm, that’s shaping up to be a pretty good matchup. New England showed on Sunday night that its pass defense still leaves something to be desired…David Garrard (46.4) had a strong game against the Colts and has a terrific W16 matchup with the Redskins’ porous pass defense…Need a deep sleeper? Both Tim Tebow (4.0) and Rex Grossman (0.3) have nice matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, respectively. I wouldn’t trust either guy over a more established option, but if you’re desperate, you could do worse. These are some bad pass defenses we’re talking about.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Heroes and Goats, where we highlight (and lowlight) some of the best (and worst) performances of Week 15. Needless to say, we’re in crunch time now, as most leagues are holding their semifinals this week. So now is the time for studs to play like studs. Let’s see who did, and who didn’t…

HEROES

Michael Vick
Vick did next to nothing in the first half, as the Giants defense kept him contained for the first two quarters. But he had a monster second half, finishing with three pass TDs and rushing for another (along with 130 rushing yards). I had a comfortable lead in one league and Vick single-handedly erased it in the second half. Grrr.

Ray Rice
Big things were expected of Rice this week, but I don’t think his owners saw 233 total yards and two TDs coming. He ran over, around and through the Saints defense this week and is going to send more than a few fantasy teams to the finals next week.

Jason Witten
Witten owners have to be loving him right now. He caught 10 passes for 140 yards and a TD in a time where TE production has been severely lacking. He has 32 catches and four TDs in his last four games.

Santana Moss
Moss was a really iffy start this week with Rex Grossman under center, but he seemed to thrive with ‘Sexy Rexy,’ catching eight passes for 72 yards and two scores. I was fortunate that I plugged him in for Danny Woodhead just before kickoff.

Austin Collie
I doubt we’re going to see Collie again this season after he took another hard hit in the middle of the field. But boy was he good before he was knocked out. He racked up eight catches for 82 yards and two TDs.

Jamaal Charles*
I had Charles ranked #12 this week thanks to Matt Cassel’s iffy status, but with an 80-yard run late in the game, Charles sealed his status as an elite RB1 option. He finished with 153 total yards and a TD.

Brandon Marshall
Marshall has been really spotty this season and wasn’t an elite option heading into Week 15, but he caught 11 passes for 106 yards and a TD against the Bills and came up big for those fantasy owners that kept the faith.

Mario Manningham
Jeremy Maclin*
Overshadowed on their own teams, both Manningham (8-113-2) and Maclin (7-59-2) came up big for their respective teams. Manningham did have a bad fumble that helped to fuel Philly’s comeback, so Vick and Maclin owners should thank him.

Rashard Mendenhall*
In a terrible matchup, Mendy racked up 100 yards and a score, so owners who were forced to start him should be happy. This is a case where the player’s talent overcame a tough rush defense.

* Players who were goats last week

GOATS

Peyton Hillis
Really? 82 yards and zero TDs against the Bengals? The yardage was okay, but Hillis owners were expecting a TD or two from their stud this week. After running roughshod over the league this season, Hillis failed to find the endzone in the last three weeks.

Terrell Owens
He had a great matchup, but left the game without a catch with a torn meniscus. Season over.

Arian Foster
He was shaken up in the second half, but wasn’t getting much done when he was playing. He finished with 61 total yards and failed to score.

Maurice Jones-Drew
He has been on a tear of late, gaining 100+ yards in six straight games, so of course he’d have a big game against the Colts, who always struggle against the run, right? Wrong. He posted just 68 total yards without a score. Sigh.

LeSean McCoy
Ahmad Bradshaw
Given the way these two were playing recently, fantasy owners had to be expecting more than 157 total yards and zero TDs combined from this duo.

Tim Hightower
My deepest apologies to anyone who started Timmy on my advice this week. (I had him at #19 or #20 for most of the week.) He got a ton of carries last week and had a great matchup with the Panthers’ defense, but only saw nine touches all day.

Knowshon Moreno
Moreno had a great matchup and looked like he was primed for a big day, but left the game early with an injury to his side. Ugh.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Arian Foster because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Jon Kitna has played pretty well since taking over for Tony Romo, and this week he has a nice matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled mightily against the pass this season…Josh Freeman should continue to put up solid fantasy lines the rest of the way. This week he has the Lions, who did play well against Aaron Rodgers for a half last week. Still, this is a secondary that has given up 20+ to Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb and Mark Sanchez in the last eight weeks, so Freeman should finish with good stats…Jason Campbell is probably available on your waiver wire (or was earlier in the week) and has a terrific matchup with a reeling Broncos defense that has given up 1.8 pass TDs per game this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (59.0)
Save for a bad game against the Steelers in W3, Freeman has been solid all season throwing for at least one TD in 12 of 13 games. He’ll also add 10-40 rushing yards, which helps the bottom line. He should be able to post nice numbers in a W15 matchup against the Lions.

Jon Kitna (18.2)
Kitna has a pretty good matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled to stop the pass this season. He has thrown at least one TD in seven of his last eight games, so I’d expect 200+ yards and 1-2 TDs against Washington in W15.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
The Falcons have struggled against the pass and Hasselbeck has shown that he can be productive against suspect secondaries. It would certainly help if Mike Williams and/or Ben Obomanu could make it back, since the Seahawks lost Deon Butler to a broken leg.

David Garrard (43.2)
I’m not psyched about Garrard’s matchup with Indy. He played well against the Colts in W4, but the Jags will continue to feature the run, so I don’t see another three-TD game in his near future. Still, he’s a decent matchup and has had success against the Colts recently.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.6)
I do like the idea of Fitzy in W16 against the Pats (though they’ve managed to shut down Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler in recent weeks). But the Dolphins are pretty tough against the pass, so I expect I’ll rank Fitzpatrick in the high teens this week.

Jason Campbell (6.7)
Campbell played well in a good matchup against the Jags in W14 and now he has another good matchup against the reeling Broncos. Campbell has had his share of stinkers (W6 against the 49ers and W11 against the Steelers come to mind), but he has played well in good matchups, so I’d expect a good line this week against the Broncos.

Kerry Collins (1.2)
Talk about inconsistent. Collins went from dreadful against the Jags in W13 to great (fantasy-wise) against the Colts in W14. He has the Texans in W15, so I’d expect good fantasy numbers.

Sam Bradford (34.5)
What’s happened to the rookie? He had a run of six straight games with at least one TD pass, but has failed to throw any in the last two weeks. His matchups the next two weeks are decent, but his recent failings have shaken my confidence in the youngster.

Drew Stanton (0.7)
Stanton was shaky against the Packers, but Green Bay is tough to throw on. The Bucs should be a bit easier, especially with Aqib Talib out for the season.

Chad Henne (46.9)
With back-to-back stinkers, as well as losing his job midseason, I’m not sure how Henne is owned in almost 47% of ESPN leagues. He does have the Bills and Lions the next two weeks, so if you’re really desperate, you could do worse. (See below.)

Alex Smith (6.7)
Smith torched the Seahawks, but the Chargers are another story.

Matt Flynn (0.0)
He had one good drive against the Lions, but threw a costly pick in the endzone. I am not optimistic about his chances against the Pats, who have played pretty good pass defense of late.

Jake Delhomme (1.4)
Ugh.

Tarvaris Jackson (0.9)
UGH.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ah, Week 14…

In most leagues, this is the week where all the teams good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to get a bye duke it out in the first round of the playoffs. There’s generally no room for error due to the quality of the competition so every surprise performance and every disappointing outing is magnified.

Here’s a look at a few heroes and a few goats from Sunday’s action.

HEROES

Darren McFadden
In a must win game? How does 209 total yards and three TDs suit you? DMC went absolutely nuts against Jacksonville, scoring on a 67-yard pass, and runs of 51- and 36-yards. And believe it or not, the Jags were playing well enough of late for this to be considered a bad matchup. With the Broncos and Colts on deck at home over the next two weeks, McFadden is primed for a BIG finish.

Tom Brady
Deion Branch
Last week, I had a 30-point lead with just Brady to go against a pretty good Jets defense and lost because Brady scored 32. This week, in another league, I figured Brady might have a mediocre game in wintry Chicago conditions in another bad matchup. Yeah…no…369 yards, two TDs. Nothing can stop Brady right now, not even a blizzard. As for Branch, do you think he’s happy being out of Seattle. The guy is on fire right now — he has four TDs in the last three weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »