Yesterday, I listed a few sleeper RBs that I’m targeting in the mid to late rounds, and today I’ll tackle the WR position. I’ve already discussed a few 10th-round-type players in the WR preview — specifically Derrick Mason, Malcom Floyd and Devin Aromashodu — so I’ll limit this list to players with average draft positions (ADP) in the 11th round or later.

Johnny Knox (10.11) & Devin Hester (10.11)
I’ve already broken my 11th round rule. Knox and Hester are practically going on the 11th, so I’ll give myself a pass. Truth is, I like all the Bears receivers in Mike Martz’s wide open system, but I’m not sure which guy will finish the best stats. Hester seems built to be a Wes Welker slot-type guy (with more quickness), while Knox has a ton of speed. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune thinks that Knox is emerging as Jay Cutler’s top target and Rotoworld speculates that it’s because of his ability to control his elite speed a la Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. It’s entirely possible that all three wideouts will have fantasy relevant seasons.

Kenny Britt (11.12)
The second-year Britt did not have a very good offseason, showing up to minicamps out of shape and generally driving the coaching staff crazy. But he’s doing better in training camp, even though he’s currently running with the second team. He is clearly the most talented of the Titans’ WRs and it should only be a matter of time before he’s Tennessee’s top option in the passing game. As a rookie he caught 42 passes for 701 yards and three scores. He was WR51 last year with those numbers, but with just 10 more catches and 150 more yards, he’ll be knocking on the Top 30. Seeing as he’s currently being drafted W47, he should be a good value, even in the 9th or 10th.

Nate Burleson (12.04)
Burleson went for 63-812-3 for Seattle last season and has had an up and down career. But the always-trailing Lions will be forced to throw a lot and Burleson should be able to make hay opposite Calvin Johnson, who will receive most of the attention in the secondary. And let’s not forget that Scott Linehan is the Lions’ new OC, and the last time these two worked together, Burleson went for 68-1006-9 as a member of the 2004 Minnesota Vikings. Don’t expect nine scores, but Burleson should be an effective WR3 or WR4 in PPR leagues.

Chris Chambers (12.10)
Just shoot me now. I had long given up on Chambers ever offering any consistent fantasy production, but then he gets picked up by the Chiefs and rattles off 45-730-5 in the last nine games of the season. Those are WR8-type numbers, people. So what do we do with him this year? Well, I guess if he’s still available in the 11th or 12th round you can do worse. The guy proved he could play in the Chiefs’ offense last season, and that’s something.

Chaz Schilens (13.04)
His foot is still giving him some trouble, but the X-rays are negative, so hopefully that soreness goes away. If it does, Schilens should have a nice year. He finished fairly strong in 2009, with 4.4-53-0.4 over the last five games, and now he finally has a pretty decent QB throwing to him in Jason Campbell. Keep an eye on that foot in the preseason and if the pain starts to clear up, look at Schilens in the 11th or the 12th.

Mohamed Massaquoi (13.04)
Let’s be clear — I’m not high on Jake Delhomme or the Cleveland passing game. But anytime you can get the top option in a passing game, no matter how bad it is, in the 13th freaking round, you have to take notice. Massaquoi is entering his second season after posting a respectable 34-624-3 as a rookie. We know two things about the Browns: 1) they’ll have to throw a lot to stay in games and 2) if Jake Delhomme likes a guy he will force the ball to him. If Massaquoi becomes that guy, he could take a big step forward stat-wise in his sophomore season.

Laurent Robinson (14.01)
Robinson got off to a great start in 2009, catching 11 passes for 141 yards and a TD in the first two games before going down with a season ending leg injury that required surgery. There has been little in the way of news coming out of St. Louis, but everyone expects him to start for the Rams this season, provided his leg is sufficiently healed. If it is, he could very well pick up where he left off last season — the Rams will be throwing a lot late in games trying to catch up, and that’s a recipe for PPR success.

Jacoby Jones (14.09)
Labeled as ‘immature,’ Jones has finally won over his head coach with his maturity this offseason. Now, if he can only beat Kevin Walter out for a starting job. Jones surely has more physical ability, but Walter is a good route runner and has soft hands. Jones is a flyer, for sure, but if he can beat Walter out for the WR2 job opposite Andre Johnson, a 1,000-yard season is well within reach.

Mike Williams (14.02)
The reviews have been rave for the rookie out of Syracuse. He has already won the starting split end job and has impressed Peter King, Pete Prisco and even Adam Schefter, who says that Williams “has star written all over him.” Now it’s important to keep in mind that Williams is a rookie, but when a player is impressing this much for a team in desperate need of a playmaker at WR, fantasy owners should take notice. I’d definitely look to draft Williams in the later rounds, but don’t wait too long.

Last week, I posed a theory that Santonio Holmes puts up much better numbers when the Steelers struggle to run the ball.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant
and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

In Week 2, the Steelers visited the Bears, who traditionally have a good rush defense. Pittsburgh running backs gained 99 yards on 19 carries, which equates to a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. But a good portion of those yards came on one play, a Rashard Mendenhall 39-yards scamper in the middle of the third quarter. Removing that play, the Steelers rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.

For his part, Santonio Holmes had a pretty nice day in the receiving game. He caught five passes for 83 yards, but dropped a couple of balls, including a potential TD in the endzone. Still, in PPR leagues, this is a very reasonable 13.3 fantasy points.

Though the YPC doesn’t reflect it, the Steelers had a tough time running the ball on Sunday. And, once again, Holmes thrived. The Steelers play Cincinnati next week, and the Bengals have been pretty stingy against the run thus far, allowing just 3.6 ypc to opposing running backs. If the Steelers can’t get the Parker-Mendenhall-Moore RBBC going in the first half, Holmes should have another good day.

All right, a show of hands…how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

Be honest.

Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy’s WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You’re reading that right — Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys — Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards — were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

Holmes’ production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night’s game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

So if it looks like the Steelers are going to have a tough time running the ball, Holmes should be in all fantasy lineups. How will we know? The opposing defense’s rank in average rushing yards allowed is a pretty good gauge. Against top 10 teams (and assuming Tennessee finishes this season in the top 10), Holmes has averaged 3.9 catches for 72 yards and 1.0 TD, or 17.1 fantasy points. Against teams ranked 11-20, he averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.3 TD (12.8 fantasy points) — still startable in PPR leagues, but not a must-start. Against teams ranked 21-32 against the run, he averaged 4.1 receptions for 59 yards and 0.2 TD (11.4 fantasy points). In other words, he was a borderline starter at best.

If Anthony Stalter is right and the Steelers are going to have a tough time rushing the ball this year, then Holmes should be in for a big year. But if the Steelers are playing a team that can’t stop the ground game, then fantasy owners might want to bench Holmes if they have an attractive option.

And if Holmes starts producing consistently against teams that can’t stop the Steelers from rushing the ball, then we’ll know that he’s turning the corner and is becoming an elite fantasy WR. If that happens, he’ll be a must-start.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have tweaked their rules to try to even out the importance of other positions with respect to running backs, wide receivers have become increasingly valuable in the last few years. In leagues that award one point per reception, it’s a completely legitimate strategy to draft a WR in the back half of the first round. In fact, after the top five or six PPR backs – Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore – are off the board, we wouldn’t snicker at someone who decided to pull the trigger on Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson instead of going choosing a player from the second tier of RBs. (If you’re wondering about Michael Turner, we love the guy, but he isn’t going to catch any passes and it doesn’t look like he’ll approach 376 carries again this season.)

Wide receivers are a little dicey because of the inconsistency that is intrinsic to the position. WRs have to depend on plays being called for them and on their QB to deliver the ball. There’s a better chance that a top RB will get his 20 touches (handoffs, dump offs) than there is that a top WR will get his 7-8 catches. As an example, last year’s top RB, Matt Forte, only had one game where he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points, and that was in Week 17, when it didn’t really matter. Conversely, the top WR, Andre Johnson, had four games where he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points (including Week 16, when it really mattered).

This year there appear to be a group of 12 stud fantasy wideouts: Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and Marques Colston. These are proven players that are in stable situations, or saw their situations improve over the summer (i.e. Matt Cassel in for Tyler Thigpen is an upgrade for Bowe). Anyone not on this list changed teams (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laveranues Coles), had a downgrade at QB (Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery), has an attitude problem (Braylon Edwards, Chad Ocho Cinco), or some combination of all three (Terrell Owens).

This, coupled with the relative depth at the RB position – there are a number of backs going in rounds 3-5 that are good bets to crack the top 20 or top 15 – makes this a year when drafting a WR or two in the first three rounds a pretty compelling strategy. Would it be better to have Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens or Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Ronnie Brown? We’d feel better about that second group.

Regardless, it’s always good to have a few guys targeted in those middle rounds (5-9) so that you can build depth and maybe even find a guy that develops into a starter-caliber WR. There is a tendency now to always look young at wideout, and this is causing some proven veterans to slip further than they should.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/21 and 8/11), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per receiving TD and one point per reception. Wide receivers will be more important in PPR leagues and in leagues that have a flex position instead of a second RB position. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles (5.11)
It’s rare that a rookie WR stands out, but in his first season, DeSean Jackson caught 62 passes for 912 yards and two TD. He burst onto the scene, averaging 5.5 receptions for 82 yards and 0.3 TD in his first four games, but struggled a bit down the stretch, averaging just 2.3 catches for 34 yards and zero TD in the last four games. Some argued that he had hit the rookie wall, but Jackson bounced back in the playoffs, posting 10 catches for 173 yards and a TD in the Eagles’ postseason matchups against the Giants and Cardinals. He was WR26 last year, so it’s a little perplexing that he’s going just a bit before that in recent mock drafts. His detractors argue that aside from a couple of seasons with Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb spreads the ball around, but other than Owens, when has McNabb had someone of Jackson’s talent to throw to?

Santana Moss, Redskins (7.01)
Moss finished the season as WR14, so it’s a little strange to see him going in the mid-20’s in recent mocks. He is a tough guy to get a handle on, as injuries have limited his production in certain seasons. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, the Redskins’ offense is staying pretty much the same. So barring injury, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t finish in the top 20 again in 2009. This makes him a fine value in the late 6th or early 7th.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets (7.02)
Cotchery seems to make our value list every year, but 2008 was the first year in which he regressed. Laveranues Coles is gone, which could be both a positive and a negative for Cotchery. On one hand, he’s going to be “The Guy” at WR, but on the other, he won’t have Coles to take away some of the defensive focus. He may have a rookie QB throwing to him, so Cotchery’s upside is dependent on how quickly Mark Sanchez can progress (though as camp opens, Kellen Clemens is QB1). The Jets figure to struggle, so Cotchery may be able to rack up the catches and yards in garbage time.

Donnie Avery, Rams (7.06)
Avery had an up and down rookie season, finishing with 53 receptions for 674 yards and three TD. But Torry Holt is now in Jacksonville, so WR1 duties now fall to the sophomore. The entire Rams offense struggled last season, so the team brought in a new offensive coordinator (Pat Shurmur, former Eagles’ QB coach) to implement the West Coast Offense. Steven Jackson will be the focus, but Avery should be top target in the passing game. He may miss the first part of a season due to injury, so his ADP will probably slip into the 8th or even 9th over the next couple of weeks.

Torry Holt, Jaguars (7.12)
Normally, we’d shy away from WRs that are changing teams, but prior to last season, Holt was a perennial top 10 player and he joins an offense that looks to be more effective than the one he played in last season. He said that his knee wasn’t a problem last year and that he struggled because the whole Rams’ offense struggled. If all of this is true, and the 33-year-old Holt still has some gas left in the tank, he could be in line for a nice WR2/WR3-type fantasy season in 2009.

Hines Ward, Steelers (7.10)
Let’s see. Ward was WR15 in a season when the Steelers’ passing game struggled and the team just gave him a four-year extension. So why is he going in the early 30’s in mock drafts? He isn’t flashy, and he isn’t going to explode for 1600 receiving yards. But assuming he stays healthy, Ward should be able to take advantage of an easy schedule and post 70+ receptions, 900+ yards and 6-8 TD. That would be a nice haul for a guy that’s currently going in the 7th or 8th round.

Here are our official WR rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Andre Johnson

3. Reggie Wayne
4. Randy Moss
5. Calvin Johnson

6. Steve Smith (CAR)
7. Roddy White
8. Greg Jennings
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Dwayne Bowe
11. Wes Welker
12. Marques Colston

13. Terrell Owens
14. Brandon Marshall
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
16. Chad Ochocinco

17. DeSean Jackson
18. Braylon Edwards
19. Santana Moss
20. Eddie Royal
21. Jerricho Cotchery

22. Anthony Gonzalez
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Hines Ward
25. Vincent Jackson
26. Antonio Bryant
27. Roy Williams
28. Torry Holt

29. Donnie Avery
30. Bernard Berrian
31. Donald Driver
32. Lance Moore
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Lee Evans

35. Domenik Hixon
36. Devin Hester
37. Ted Ginn
38. Steve Breaston
39. Kevin Walter
40. Josh Morgan
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Chris Henry
43. Justin Gage
44. Nate Burleson
45. Steve Smith (NYG)
46. Kevin Curtis
47. Earl Bennett
48. Chaz Schiliens
49. Derrick Mason

50. Davone Bess
51. Michael Jenkins
52. Nate Washington
53. Mike Walker
54. Devin Thomas
55. Mike Bradley
56. Joey Galloway
57. Jeremy Maclin
58. Sidney Rice
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Isaac Bruce

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.

RUNNING BACKS

Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Shaun McDonald has gone for 11-133-1 over the last two weeks and is the clear WR2 in Detroit. He’s worth a pickup, especially in PPR leagues…Rashied Davis (5-64-1) led the Bears in receiving this week, but Devin Hester (4-42) was a factor as well. Brandon Lloyd wasn’t active despite partially participating in practice this week…Both T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7-65) and Chad Johnson (5-37-2) have played pretty well the last couple of games, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center…After a dreadful week against the Raiders (1-3), Derrick Mason exploded with a 9-136-1 day. He has caught at least four passes in seven of eight games this season and is a solid start in PPR leagues…Antonio Bryant (8-115-1) continues to thrive even with Joey Galloway (1-22) back. We might be seeing a changing of the guard in Tampa…Torry Holt (6-58-1) showed some life after complaining about his role in the St. Louis offense…Donald Driver (7-136-1) has caught 17 passes over the last three games, and is still a good WR2 in most PPR leagues…Greg Camarillo (11-111) continues to post solid numbers in PPR leagues. He has caught at least four passes in the last seven games…DeSean Jackson (2-20) had an unusually quiet game, and it might have something to do with the return of Kevin Curtis (6-83).

TIGHT ENDS

Owen Daniels had a huge (11-133) game for the Texans, outgaining Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter combined…Visanthe Shiancoe (1-25-1) found the endzone for the fourth time in six games…Jason Witten (0-0) was active, but failed to catch a pass. He was targeted four times and two resulted in interceptions. Hopefully, he can heal with the week off…Kevin Boss (3-30-1) continues his up and down play. Until he can show more consistency, he’s nothing but a spot starter.

FREE AGENTS

Now here are my thoughts on a few guys that might be on your league’s waiver wire…

Willis McGahee owners are cursing the Ravens right now. He was active for the game, but didn’t register a touch as Ray Rice (24 touches, 176 yards) and LeRon McClain (15 touches, 37 yards, TD) handled the rushing duties. It looks like Rice has passed McClain on the depth chart and is the guy to own in PPR leagues… Joe Flacco has put up pretty decent numbers over the last three weeks. Against the Browns, he posted 248 yards and two TD…Kolby Smith got off to a good start, but left the game with an injury. Now it looks like Jamaal Charles (18 rushes, 106 yards) is the Chiefs’ RB1…Tyler Thigpen (164 yards passing, TD, 22 yards rushing) put up decent QB numbers for the second straight week. Last week, it was against the Jets, but this week it was against a good Bucs’ defense…Mark Bradley’s 4-65 day followed up last week’s 5-42-1 day against the Jets. With defenses focused on Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, Bradley is a sleeper at WR, especially if Tyler Thigpen continues to play good ball…Sage Rosenfels (224 yards, 2 TD, INT) was back under center in the second half against the Vikings after a shot to the knee knocked Matt Schaub out of the game…Michael Jenkins (2-64-2) scored on two long pass plays. This came on the heels of four straight games with 3+ catches. He should see his value rise as Matt Ryan gains experience…JaMarcus Russell (6/19, 31 yards, INT) was absolutely brutal against a shaky Falcons pass defense…Brent Celek (6-131) started in place of the concussed L.J. Smith and had a great game…Koren Robinson (4-105-1) has caught four passes in each of the last two weeks and right now it looks like he is the Seahawks’ WR1. Bobby Engram (3-20) was pretty quiet. Don’t look for Engram to really get it going until (or is it if?) Matt Hasselbeck comes back.