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Fantasy Football Q&A Question of the Week: Week 9

Every week, I pick one question from our Fantasy Football Q&A and post it on Sunday morning. This week’s question comes from Lauren, who is wondering if it’s time make a trade to compensate for Kurt Warner’s poor play of late.

“I currently have Kurt Warner and due to his poor performance in week 8 I have been offered a trade of Favre for Roddy White or Palmer for Roddy White. My other receivers are Hines Ward, Driver and Steve Smith (carolina) I also have Michael Turner and Addai and Bradshaw as my starters. I will keep Kurt Warner on the bench but I need a stronger QB to win. Who would you pick? Palmer or Favre?”

My answer: Don’t trade Roddy White. There is a lot of depth at QB and this guy is trying to sucker you into making a trade when you don’t need to. Which QBs are available on your waiver wire? Of the two, I’d rather have Favre, so offer up Ward, Driver or S. Smith (CAR) and see if the guy bites. Any of those guys would be fair value for Favre. (Make sure you mention that he’s an injury risk and that there’s a lot of depth at the QB position.)

It turns out that Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell and Vince Young were available on her waiver wire. She eventually traded Steve Smith 1.0 for Carson Palmer, which depletes her depth at WR but does give her another good option at QB.

There is usually a lot of depth at the quarterback position. This season the difference between QB10 (Eli Manning) and QB18 (David Garrard) is only 24 points, so it’s not worth trading away a player like Steve Smith to upgrade from Kurt Warner (QB15) to Carson Palmer (QB12).

Besides, Warner had a bad matchup last week — the Panthers’ pass defense is actually pretty good — and has a nice upcoming schedule. He’s a good bet to bounce back, even though he’s already had a solid fantasy season.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) for the rest of the season

Back in August, I recommended a few DTBC combinations for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it has scored 44 combined points.

Still own these two defenses? You can still hold onto them, but Week 15 is looking a little rough as the Packers play in Pittsburgh and the Cowboys visit the Saints. Green Bay just isn’t putting much pressure on the QB, so Ben Roethlisberger may be able to sit back and pick apart the Packer secondary.

If don’t own a top tier defense (PHI, NO, MIN, BAL and PIT, now that they have Troy Polamalu back), you may want to consider acquiring two good but not great defenses that combine to have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Normally, it doesn’t make sense to carry two defenses, but now that most of the teams are past their byes, it’s not necessary to hold onto bye week fill-ins because you’re probably not going to need them.

There are eleven DTs that are owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues making it somewhat unlikely that they’re available on your league’s waiver wire. This list includes the aforementioned six teams along with the Broncos, Packers, Giants, Jets, Bears and Colts. If you have one of these six, it might behoove you to grab a defense with a complementary schedule.

I’m targeting nine defenses — the Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and the Dolphins — that either mesh well with the Broncos, Packers, Giants and Jets, or with each other. These defenses are all ranked in the top 22 and are available in at least a third of ESPN fantasy leagues. These are defenses that relatively healthy and have had success in good matchups. Here’s a look:

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 9


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

This should go without saying, but just in case: Aaron Rodgers should be in your lineup against a Bucs’ pass defense that has yielded 2.3 pass TD per game this season…Donovan McNabb has a very good matchup against a struggling Cowboys secondary…Matt Hasselbeck faces the Lions. Two words: Start him…Cincinnati’s pass defense is ranked 30th in the league, so Joe Flacco should have a nice fantasy line this week…As it stands, Matt Cassel has his last great matchup of the season this week, coming off a bye against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked pass defense…So, last week, was the Titans’ pass defense that good or was Jacksonville’s pass defense that bad. Alex Smith faces Tennessee’s league-worst pass defense this week and is a pretty nice start…I’m a little hesitant to recommend him again after his brutal showing against the Titans, but David Garrard has another nice matchup this week against the Chiefs and isn’t a bad start…For the desperate, Jason Campbell is a sneaky good start against a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop the pass in recent weeks.

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Fantasy Football Quick-Hitters: Calvin, Westy, Gonzalez, McFadden and more

Calvin Johnson is back at practice. Not only does this help his owners, but also those that have Kevin Smith and/or Matthew Stafford on their rosters. HC Jim Schwartz told the press that Kevin Smith was his “workhorse” back, so with Johnson back in the fold, Smith should have an easier time finding running lanes. He’s pretty much an every-week start in PPR leagues.

Jamal Lewis reiterates that he plans to retire after the season. The Cleveland offense is so anemic that this really isn’t news that’s going to help anyone this season, but those owners in keeper or dynasty leagues might want to pick up Jerome Harrison and or James Davis on the chance that they become the Browns’ feature back next season.

Anthony Gonzalez seeks second opinion on knee. This can’t be a good sign. Gonzalez was supposed to be back by now, and the fact that he’s not is already a red flag. We’ll see what this second opinion says, but it’s not looking good. The only reason he’d seek another

Westbrook cleared to resume practicing. He is coming back from a concussion. It’s a little worrisome for his owners, but this good news devalues LeSean McCoy a bit, so if you have Westy on your roster you could use this along with Leonard Weaver’s big day to try to acquire McCoy on the cheap.

Seahawks release Edgerrin James. This is a sign for more work for Justin Forsett, who will be Seattle’s RB2 behind Julius Jones. Forsett has been more productive at times than Jones, but the two are likely to share carries and catches in the Seahawks’ backfield. Forsett should now be owned in most leagues.

McFadden, Schilens back at practice. I’d wait a week to see how McFadden plays, but it’s still a good sign that he is back on the field. The Oakland passing game is a mess, so Schilens is barely roster-worthy at this point.

Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 9

Want my take on what happened in Week 8? Fantasy Fallout
Wondering who to pick up? Waiver Wire Watch
Looking for a defense this week? DTBWW

Still have questions? Fire away. Be sure to let me know whether or not you’re in a PPR league.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 9

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 34 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
#2 Chargers: 16 PA (2) + 5 SK + INT = 8 fp
#3 Texans: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT = 10 fp

Wow, did the Arizona defense lay an egg last week. The Cardinals had the top-ranked rush defense coming in, and had played well the previous two weeks against the Giants and the Seahawks. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them repeatedly on the ground to the tune of 245 yards and two TD, and they failed to get to Jake Delhomme in the passing game. The Chargers and Texans performed as expected. (Special thanks to our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, for redeeming himself with the Houston pick.)

For the season, the #1 DTBWW pick has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, the #2 pick has averaged 9.4 and the #3 pick is posting 7.6. On the whole, DTBWW is producing 9.1 points per game, which are DT5 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)
Seattle is averaging 11.3 fantasy points at home (versus 2.3 on the road), so a matchup with the visiting Lions is tasty indeed. The Seahawks have destroyed the Rams and Jags at home this season and should be able to post nice fantasy numbers against the struggling Lions.

Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
The Falcons have some problems, but played well in the second half against a great Saints’ offense. The Redskins’ offensive woes have been well documented, and like most defenses, the Falcons play better at home. Another nice thing about ATL is that they have a good matchup in Week 10 as well (@ CAR), so they could be a solid multi-week play.

Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Vince Young looked pretty good last week, but the 49ers aren’t the Jags. Mike Singletary’s defensive unit did a pretty nice job in a tough situation last week in Indy, and it has played well in favorable situations this season. Containing Chris Johnson is the key.

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 9

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

This week, I am going to spend extra time on the TE position to try to help those Owen Daniels owners pick up the pieces.

Alex Smith (9.7)
After a better-than-expected showing against a good Colts pass defense, Smith has TEN, CHI, GB, JAX, SEA and DET over the next seven weeks. If you have two good QBs and can trade one of them away, Smith should be a solid backup.
Mark Sanchez (45.6)
He’s on bye this week, but has a tasty matchup against the Jags in Week 10.
Jason Campbell (22.0)
Despite his team’s struggles, Campbell has been pretty solid, posting 12+ fp in all but one game.
Matthew Stafford (6.0)
Vince Young (3.9)
Trent Edwards (31.1)
Chad Henne (4.9)

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Fantasy Fallout: Week 9

Everything you need to know (and a lot that you don’t) about the fantasy implications of Sunday’s action.

QUARTERBACKS

Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.

RUNNING BACKS

Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.


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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 9

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: There are a number of fringe-type quarterbacks with nice matchups this week. Kyle Orton (vs. DET) has a great matchup with the Lions, who have given up 259 passing yards and 1.7 pass TD per game…Trent Edwards (vs. NYJ) had a so-so game against the Dolphins last week, but he should fare better against the 23rd-ranked Jets pass defense at home…Gus Frerotte (vs. HOU) has been steady since he took over in Week 3 (257 yards, 1.0 TD per game) and this week he faces a Texans defense that has yielded 207 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game…Marc Bulger (vs. ARI) has shown some life of late (237 yards, 1.0 TD over the last two games), and with the 21st-ranked Cardinals pass defense (223 yards, 2.0 TD per game) coming to town, the odds are that he’ll have a solid fantasy game…Chad Pennington (@ DEN) faces the Broncos, who have given up 240 yards and 1.7 TD per game…For the desperate, Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. JAX) faces the 22nd-ranked Jaguars pass defense, while JaMarcus Russell (vs. ATL) faces the Falcons, who are 24th in the league against the pass.

RB: With Warrick Dunn dinged up, Earnest Graham (@ KC) is a great start against the league’s worst rush defense. The Chiefs have given up a mind-boggling 197 rushing yards and 2.0 rush TD per game…Matt Forte (vs. DET), Michael Turner (@ OAK) and Ronnie Brown (@ DEN) are must-starts this week…Tim Hightower (@ STL) is a sneaky good start this week, as the Cardinals are giving him more work of late. The Rams have played better defense in the last few weeks, so don’t expect a monster game…It’s hard to trust any of the New England RBs, but Kevin Faulk (@ IND) has a great matchup with a bad Colts rush defense.

WR: Definitely get Calvin Johnson (@ CHI) into your lineup this week. The Bears are 29th against the pass, and it’s likely that the Lions will be playing catchups…DeSean Jackson (@ SEA) has a nice matchup with an inconsistent Seahawks defense that has allowed 245 passing yards and 1.6 pass TD per game. Likewise, Kevin Curtis is a good play as well…Donnie Avery and Torry Holt (vs. ARI) have a good matchup with the Cardinals. Arizona has yielded 223 passing yards and 2.0 pass TD on the season…In bigger leagues, Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn (@ DEN) are crafty plays against the Broncos. This is likely to be a high scoring game and the Dolphins might have their way with Denver’s 28th-ranked pass defense.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Joe Flacco (@ CLE) has a rough matchup with an improved Browns defense that is ranked 10th in the league and has only yielded 1.0 TD per game…Matt Cassel (@ IND) faces the 2nd-ranked pass defense of the Colts. Indy has only given up two pass TD all year…Tyler Thigpen (vs. TB) played well against the Jets last week, but he’s a bad start against the Bucs, who are 7th in the league against the pass. (They have allowed 1.4 pass TD per game, however)…The following players are still startable, but use with caution: Aaron Rodgers (@ TEN), Matt Schaub (@ MIN), Ben Roethlisberger (@ WAS) and Jason Campbell (vs. PIT).

RB: Jamal Lewis (vs. BAL) has a rough matchup with the league’s best rush defense (64 rush yards, 0.1 rush TD per game)…Kolby Smith (vs. TB) should get most of the work in KC, but the Bucs have yet to yield a rush TD this season…Willie Parker (@ WAS) is back at practice, but if he does play, he’ll likely be sharing carries with the more-than-effective Mewelde Moore against a solid Redskins rush defense…Julius Jones and Maurice Morris (vs. PHI) are splitting carries again, and with the 9th-ranked Eagles’ rush defense on tap, neither guy is worth a start.

WR: Greg Jennings is always a must-start, but you might want to leave Donald Driver (@ TEN) on the bench. The Titans’ 4th-ranked pass defense has allowed just 185 yards and 0.4 TD per game this season…I wouldn’t bench most of these players, but they have tough matchups this week, so lower your expectations: Roddy White (@ OAK), Dwayne Bowe (vs. TB), Wes Welker and Randy Moss (@ IND) (though the Colts just lost a starting CB), Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (@ WAS), and Santana Moss (vs. PIT)…Don’t expect Bobby Engram to have much of a game with Matt Hasselbeck out and a tough Philly pass defense coming to town.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

CLE (vs. BAL)
STL (vs. ARI)

Last week’s picks:

Texans: 6 PA + 2 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 19 fantasy points
Dolphins: 16 PA + 2 SK + 1 INT + 3 FR + 1 SAFTEY = 10 fantasy points

Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 9

Post all of your fantasy football questions here.

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