Fantasy Fallout, Week 9: QBs

- Kurt Warner (261 yards, 5 TD) bounced back in a big way against a struggling Bears pass defense.

- In that JAX/KC matchup, David Garrard (264 yards, TD) and Matt Cassel (262 yards, 2 TD) both predictably had nice fantasy days.

- Josh Freeman (205 yards, 3 TD) had a productive game in his first start.

- Aaron Rodgers (266 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT) threw three picks, but had two pass TD and a rush TD for a nice fantasy line.

- It was a relatively quiet game for Drew Brees (330 yards, TD, INT), who had a rough first half before a pretty big second half.

- Vince Young (172 yards, rush TD) wasn’t spectacular, but he was solid and had a nice TD run.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 9: RBs

- Clinton Portis (4 carries, 4 yards) left the game with a concussion. Ladell Betts (16 touches, 93 yards, TD) got most of the touches, but Rock Cartwright (7 carries, 16 yards) was also involved.

- Ray Rice (12 carries, 48 yards, TD) scored in the ground game, but did a ton of damage (8-87) through the air. He is on pace for 92 catches.

- Michael Turner (18 carries, 166 yards, 2 TD) now has 10 TD on the year. He has ran very well over the last few weeks.

- Tim Hightower (16 touches, 88 yards) and Chris Wells (13 carries, 72 yards) evenly split the work in the Arizona backfield.

- Matt Forte (5 carries, 33 yards) didn’t a lot of carries in the running game, but went for 6-74 in the passing game.

- Cedric Benson (34 carries, 117 yards, TD) grinded out a nice game against a pretty stout Ravens rush defense. He’s an every-week start.

- Joesph Addai (19 touches, 112 yards, 2 TD) continues to be a very good start with Donald Brown sidelined.

- Ryan Moats (19 touches, 53 yards, TD) got the start, but Steve Slaton (9 touches, 29 yards, TD) was involved. Moats did fumble around the goal line.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 9: WRs

- Roddy White (3-27) played, but wasn’t all that productive. The Redskins have a pretty stingy pass defense.

- Larry Fitzgerald (9-123-2) looks like a man playing a child’s game.

- Steve Breaston (5-66-1) filled in admirably for Anquan Boldin, who missed the game with an ankle injury. Breaston also had a 25-yard run.

- Devin Hester (6-94) and Earl Bennett (7-93) benefited from the fact that the Bears trailed all day, posting nice numbers in PPR leagues.

- Pierre Garcon (5-60) outperformed Austin Collie (2-26) for the first time since Week 3.

- It didn’t take Chris Chambers (3-70-2) to make an impact in Kansas City. Chambers is the consummate tease, so don’t bother picking him up unless he has another good week or two. Lance Long (8-74) filled well in for Bobby Wade.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 9: TEs

- Fred Davis (2-26) didn’t do much in place of Chris Cooley.

- Greg Olsen (5-71-3) finally broke out with a big fantasy day.

- Dallas Clark (14-119) continues to tear it up with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined.

- Brandon Pettigrew (7-70-1) had by far his best game of the year, and looks like a decent option for fantasy owners still reeling from the loss of Owen Daniels.

- Kevin Boss (2-17-1) shook off a big hit and returned to catch a TD.

- Vernon Davis (10-102) had a big day and has great chemistry with Alex Smith.

Check back in a bit for the QB, RB and WR positions.

Fantasy Football Q&A Question of the Week: Week 9

Every week, I pick one question from our Fantasy Football Q&A and post it on Sunday morning. This week’s question comes from Lauren, who is wondering if it’s time make a trade to compensate for Kurt Warner’s poor play of late.

“I currently have Kurt Warner and due to his poor performance in week 8 I have been offered a trade of Favre for Roddy White or Palmer for Roddy White. My other receivers are Hines Ward, Driver and Steve Smith (carolina) I also have Michael Turner and Addai and Bradshaw as my starters. I will keep Kurt Warner on the bench but I need a stronger QB to win. Who would you pick? Palmer or Favre?”

My answer: Don’t trade Roddy White. There is a lot of depth at QB and this guy is trying to sucker you into making a trade when you don’t need to. Which QBs are available on your waiver wire? Of the two, I’d rather have Favre, so offer up Ward, Driver or S. Smith (CAR) and see if the guy bites. Any of those guys would be fair value for Favre. (Make sure you mention that he’s an injury risk and that there’s a lot of depth at the QB position.)

It turns out that Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell and Vince Young were available on her waiver wire. She eventually traded Steve Smith 1.0 for Carson Palmer, which depletes her depth at WR but does give her another good option at QB.

There is usually a lot of depth at the quarterback position. This season the difference between QB10 (Eli Manning) and QB18 (David Garrard) is only 24 points, so it’s not worth trading away a player like Steve Smith to upgrade from Kurt Warner (QB15) to Carson Palmer (QB12).

Besides, Warner had a bad matchup last week — the Panthers’ pass defense is actually pretty good — and has a nice upcoming schedule. He’s a good bet to bounce back, even though he’s already had a solid fantasy season.

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Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) for the rest of the season

Back in August, I recommended a few DTBC combinations for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it has scored 44 combined points.

Still own these two defenses? You can still hold onto them, but Week 15 is looking a little rough as the Packers play in Pittsburgh and the Cowboys visit the Saints. Green Bay just isn’t putting much pressure on the QB, so Ben Roethlisberger may be able to sit back and pick apart the Packer secondary.

If don’t own a top tier defense (PHI, NO, MIN, BAL and PIT, now that they have Troy Polamalu back), you may want to consider acquiring two good but not great defenses that combine to have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Normally, it doesn’t make sense to carry two defenses, but now that most of the teams are past their byes, it’s not necessary to hold onto bye week fill-ins because you’re probably not going to need them.

There are eleven DTs that are owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues making it somewhat unlikely that they’re available on your league’s waiver wire. This list includes the aforementioned six teams along with the Broncos, Packers, Giants, Jets, Bears and Colts. If you have one of these six, it might behoove you to grab a defense with a complementary schedule.

I’m targeting nine defenses — the Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and the Dolphins — that either mesh well with the Broncos, Packers, Giants and Jets, or with each other. These defenses are all ranked in the top 22 and are available in at least a third of ESPN fantasy leagues. These are defenses that relatively healthy and have had success in good matchups. Here’s a look:

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 9


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Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

This should go without saying, but just in case: Aaron Rodgers should be in your lineup against a Bucs’ pass defense that has yielded 2.3 pass TD per game this season…Donovan McNabb has a very good matchup against a struggling Cowboys secondary…Matt Hasselbeck faces the Lions. Two words: Start him…Cincinnati’s pass defense is ranked 30th in the league, so Joe Flacco should have a nice fantasy line this week…As it stands, Matt Cassel has his last great matchup of the season this week, coming off a bye against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked pass defense…So, last week, was the Titans’ pass defense that good or was Jacksonville’s pass defense that bad. Alex Smith faces Tennessee’s league-worst pass defense this week and is a pretty nice start…I’m a little hesitant to recommend him again after his brutal showing against the Titans, but David Garrard has another nice matchup this week against the Chiefs and isn’t a bad start…For the desperate, Jason Campbell is a sneaky good start against a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop the pass in recent weeks.

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Fantasy Football Quick-Hitters: Calvin, Westy, Gonzalez, McFadden and more

Calvin Johnson is back at practice. Not only does this help his owners, but also those that have Kevin Smith and/or Matthew Stafford on their rosters. HC Jim Schwartz told the press that Kevin Smith was his “workhorse” back, so with Johnson back in the fold, Smith should have an easier time finding running lanes. He’s pretty much an every-week start in PPR leagues.

Jamal Lewis reiterates that he plans to retire after the season. The Cleveland offense is so anemic that this really isn’t news that’s going to help anyone this season, but those owners in keeper or dynasty leagues might want to pick up Jerome Harrison and or James Davis on the chance that they become the Browns’ feature back next season.

Anthony Gonzalez seeks second opinion on knee. This can’t be a good sign. Gonzalez was supposed to be back by now, and the fact that he’s not is already a red flag. We’ll see what this second opinion says, but it’s not looking good. The only reason he’d seek another

Westbrook cleared to resume practicing. He is coming back from a concussion. It’s a little worrisome for his owners, but this good news devalues LeSean McCoy a bit, so if you have Westy on your roster you could use this along with Leonard Weaver’s big day to try to acquire McCoy on the cheap.

Seahawks release Edgerrin James. This is a sign for more work for Justin Forsett, who will be Seattle’s RB2 behind Julius Jones. Forsett has been more productive at times than Jones, but the two are likely to share carries and catches in the Seahawks’ backfield. Forsett should now be owned in most leagues.

McFadden, Schilens back at practice. I’d wait a week to see how McFadden plays, but it’s still a good sign that he is back on the field. The Oakland passing game is a mess, so Schilens is barely roster-worthy at this point.

Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 9

Want my take on what happened in Week 8? Fantasy Fallout
Wondering who to pick up? Waiver Wire Watch
Looking for a defense this week? DTBWW

Still have questions? Fire away. Be sure to let me know whether or not you’re in a PPR league.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 9

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 34 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
#2 Chargers: 16 PA (2) + 5 SK + INT = 8 fp
#3 Texans: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT = 10 fp

Wow, did the Arizona defense lay an egg last week. The Cardinals had the top-ranked rush defense coming in, and had played well the previous two weeks against the Giants and the Seahawks. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them repeatedly on the ground to the tune of 245 yards and two TD, and they failed to get to Jake Delhomme in the passing game. The Chargers and Texans performed as expected. (Special thanks to our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, for redeeming himself with the Houston pick.)

For the season, the #1 DTBWW pick has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, the #2 pick has averaged 9.4 and the #3 pick is posting 7.6. On the whole, DTBWW is producing 9.1 points per game, which are DT5 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)
Seattle is averaging 11.3 fantasy points at home (versus 2.3 on the road), so a matchup with the visiting Lions is tasty indeed. The Seahawks have destroyed the Rams and Jags at home this season and should be able to post nice fantasy numbers against the struggling Lions.

Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
The Falcons have some problems, but played well in the second half against a great Saints’ offense. The Redskins’ offensive woes have been well documented, and like most defenses, the Falcons play better at home. Another nice thing about ATL is that they have a good matchup in Week 10 as well (@ CAR), so they could be a solid multi-week play.

Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Vince Young looked pretty good last week, but the 49ers aren’t the Jags. Mike Singletary’s defensive unit did a pretty nice job in a tough situation last week in Indy, and it has played well in favorable situations this season. Containing Chris Johnson is the key.

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