As I’m sitting here attempting to start my fallout column, there’s a little two-and-a-half year old firefighter pestering me to go trick-or-treating, so don’t be surprised if this week’s version is abbreviated. I’m only going to focus on the truly surprising fantasy lines of the day.

EARLY GAMES

In my Waiver Wire Watch, I’ve been pushing Matthew Stafford (212 yards, 4 TDs) for the last couple of weeks and he delivered in a great matchup this week thanks to Calvin Johnson‘s (9-103-3) outstanding performance. The split in the backfield between Jahvid Best (17 touches, 79 yards) and Kevin Smith (14 touches, 67 yards) is a little worrisome, however. Smith has looked good in recent weeks in limited duty and we’ll have to wait and see if the Lions were limiting Best for any particular reason. Ryan Torain (12 touches, 29 yards, TD) left the game with a hamstring injury, and Keiland Williams (9 touches, 53 yards, TD) took his place. Williams may be a hot waiver wire pickup this week.

David Garrard (260 yards, 4 TD, rush TD) was a common pickup for a lot of Tony Romo owners who were scrambling for QB help this week, and boy, did he deliver. Mike Sims-Walker (8-153-1) exploded with a big game as well. Garrard has his bye next week and then has two good matchups in Weeks 10 (HOU) and 11 (CLE), so he’s a good play, at least in the short-term. And don’t read too much into Jon Kitna‘s so-so week (379 yards, TD, 4 INT). With the way that the Dallas DT is playing (poorly), the Cowboys are going to be in a lot of shootouts this season and that should mean some nice fantasy lines from Kitna. Felix Jones‘s struggles (11 touches, 36 yards) are very troublesome — I’d probably bench him until he can get it going.

Boy, was Jonathan Stewart (15 touches, 38 yards) disappointing in a pretty good matchup. It’s probably best to stay away from the Panthers offensive players if you can. David Gettis was shut out, while Steve Smith 1.0 (9-85) looked pretty good in his second game back.

Vernon Davis (1-12) left the game after re-aggravating his ankle injury, and Delanie Walker (5-85) filled in admirably for him. If Davis misses any time, look for Michael Crabtree (3-53-1) to get more targets from Troy Smith (196 yards, TD, rush TD), who actually played pretty well.

LATE GAMES

Kenny Britt (0-0) left the game early with a hamstring injury and didn’t register a catch. Nate Washington (4-117-1) picked up the slack and becomes fantasy relevant again. Vince Young (253 yards, 2 TD) had a nice game going before leaving with a leg injury of his own.

Darren McFadden (23 touches, 134 yards) is the clear RB1 in Oakland, but Michael Bush (10 touches, 106 yards, TD) had a very nice game in clean up duty. Zach Miller (1-8) had a surprisingly bad game and left the game for a short bit with an injury. Jason Campbell (310 yards, 2 TD) had another good outing. Even Darrius Heyward-Bey (5-105-1) got in on the action with Louis Murphy sidelined with a bruised young.

Fantasy-wise, Randy Moss (1-8) was a non-factor, but he opened things up for Percy Harvin (6-104). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (17 carries, 112 yards, 2 TD) had a huge game, but Danny Woodhead (11 touches, 58 yards, TD) was involved as well.

LeGarrette Blount (22 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD) had an outstanding game in his first game as the “starter.” I’d take him over Carnell Williams (7 touches, 36 yards) in all leagues (even PPR) at this point. Steve Breaston (8-147) returned for the Cardinals and had a terrific line. Larry Fitzgerald (6-72-2) also broke out with a nice game. He’s not pretty, but Derek Anderson (234 yards, TD, 2 INT) gives the Cards a better chance of winning than Max Hall (71 yards, TD, 2 INT), who just looks out of his depth at this point. Beanie Wells (17 touches, 64 yards, TD) was the clear RB1, and LaRod Stephens-Howling (4 carries, 41 yards, TD) was his primary backup. It looks like Tim Hightower (1 carry, 0 yards) is on the outs.

I feel your pain, Romo owners. I had him in two of my six leagues, and was ill-prepared for an injury to my star QB. In one league, I managed to pick up Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, and in the other, I was only able to get Jason Campbell and David Garrard.

It seems like a good time to recalculate our Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) to see what QB pairs have a combined schedule that will get us through the rest of the season. It’s fine to trade away depth at RB or WR in order to land a solid QB, but in many cases it’s unnecessary. A problem at QB is one of the easiest to mask since there is so much depth at the position. In most leagues, you can get capable QB play by picking up a couple of guys on the waiver wire and using them in tandem.

To that end, I looked at the 18 (at least somewhat decent) QBs most likely to be available on your waiver wire. In order of decreasing availability (in ESPN leagues), the list includes:

Donovan McNabb (94.2)
Jay Cutler (86.4)
Brett Favre (86.2)
Carson Palmer (83.4)
Mark Sanchez (68.6)
Vince Young (62.3)
Chad Henne (60.9)
Matt Cassel (42.1)
Sam Bradford (28.6)
Matthew Stafford (27.1)
David Garrard (26.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8)
Josh Freeman (23.1)
Matt Hasselbeck (20.8)
Alex Smith/Troy Smith (12.7)
Jon Kitna (10.9)
Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell (5.1)
Matt Moore (1.8)

I tweaked Footballguys’ rest-of-year (through Week 16) projections to reflect my own ranking for each player. I then applied FBG’s strength of schedule to calculate a projected points for all the remaining games, and then used a giant Excel spreadsheet to determine the best QB pairs for the remainder of the season.

The two best QBBCs are Stafford/Cutler and Stafford/McNabb, but since Cutler and McNabb aren’t readily available in most leagues, we have to dig a little deeper. The third-highest QBBC is Stafford/Fitzpatrick, which has an average percent-owned of 26.5%, so the duo might be available in your league. Stafford/Freeman and Fitzpatrick/Freeman come in at #5 and #6, respectively.

Below is a table of all 153 possible combinations. Duos that are listed in green have an average percent-owned of less than 20% (meaning there’s a decent chance that they’re available), while duos listed in red have an average percent-owned between 20% and 40%. I included expected points (in a high performance scoring system) for Weeks 8-16 and for Weeks 9-16 in case you find this article after the Week 8 games.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 7 picks fared:

#1 Chiefs: 1 SK + 2 INT + 1 INT TD + 1 FR = 10 fantasy points
#2 Seahawks: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 1 INT + 4 FR = 13 fp
#3 Buccaneers: 17 PA (2) + 1 SK + 1 FR = 4 fp

That’s more like it. The Chiefs and Seahawks both came through in great matchups, while the Bucs continued to struggle as a fantasy defense, even at home versus a rookie QB.

On the season, DTBWW is averaging 6.9 | 11.6 | 4.9 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for a total of 7.8 fantasy points per game. Those are DT10 numbers…not what I’m used to getting with DTBWW.

Let’s take a look at my Week 8 picks:

#1: St. Louis Rams (vs. CAR)
Matt Moore played well last week at home against the 49ers, but the Rams have been very solid, especially in St. Louis (where they average 9.3 fp), so I’m expecting a nice effort.

#2: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BUF)
With Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bills aren’t as juicy of a matchup as they once were, but KC has averaged 11.3 fp in three home games this season.

#3: New England Patriots (vs. MIN)
With Brett Favre a game time decision, the Pats are looking like a strong play against the Vikings, who have been turning the ball over a lot. If Tarvaris Jackson gets the start, all the better. The Pats have averaged 7.0 fp at home and 9.7 fp overall.

Bonus Picks: ARI (vs. TB), OAK (vs. SEA), TB (@ ARI), DET (vs. WAS)

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (usually Wednesday or Thursday) when I’ll release my official Week 8 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Tony Romo owners: Don’t get depressed. It’s no fun to lose your star QB, but of all the positions in fantasy football, QB is one of the easiest to mask/fix. If you don’t already have a capable backup, target two decent QBs that look to have a fairly easy combined schedule and form your own midseason QBBC.

Chad Henne (59.7)
Henne has averaged 289 yards and 1.8 TD in the last four games, and Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess are a pretty good pair of wideouts to throw to.

Matthew Stafford (21.9)
Stafford should return in Week 8 and has several good matchups (WAS, NYJ, BUF, DAL, NE) over the next five weeks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (5.3)
I thought Fitzy might struggle against the league’s 3rd-ranked pass defense, but that didn’t happen (374 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT). The Bills’ defense is pretty bad so he’ll have to throw, throw and throw some more, and Lee Evans and Steve Johnson are coming on. The schedule isn’t great, but after Week 7…does it matter?

Jon Kitna (0.1)
Kitna had a few good fantasy years in his day and he’ll take over as the starter or as long as Tony Romo is out. The Cowboys have a ton of offensive weapons, so he could be a serviceable starter.

Matt Cassel (37.8)
True, he looked brutal early in the season, but he has five TDs and zero picks in the last two games, and another easy matchup against the Bills in Week 8.

Josh Freeman (16.5)
Steady as she goes: Freeman has at least 212 yards or two TD passes in five of six games this season. And the one bad game was against Pittsburgh. With Arizona and Atlanta up next, Freeman is a decent spot starter in the short term.

Sam Bradford (29.4)
He didn’t throw for a lot of yards, but the rookie tossed two more TDs to give him a total of nine in seven games. A bad matchup with the Panthers awaits in Week 8, but things get a lot easier after his Week 9 bye.

Matt Hasselbeck (21.5)
With just four TDs in the last five games, Hasselbeck has little upside, but he can get you through a rough patch if he has a decent matchup.

Matt Moore (1.2)
Who is this guy? Moore looked terrific against the 49ers, and if rookies David Gettis and Brandon LaFell can grow up quickly, Moore could turn into a solid QB2.

Jason Campbell (4.7)
He filled in admirably and if he keeps winning, he could stick as the starter even when Bruce Gradkowski comes back.

Colt McCoy (2.3)
After a 281-yard, one-TD outing against the Steelers, McCoy only threw for 74 yards against the Saints. It just goes to show that the Browns are going to play conservative when they have the lead.

Max Hall (1.6)
He was replaced after a blow to the head, but Ken Whisenhunt says he’s still the starter if healthy. This is a situation to avoid if you can.

Donald Brown (56.6)
Joseph Addai might be out for a while and, if healthy, Brown is the odds on favorite for RB1 duties in his place. He should be a viable RB2 as long as Addai is out.

LeGarrette Blount (1.1)
With Earnest Graham sidelined for Week 7, Blount ran for 72 yards on 11 carries. There is reason to be excited about Blount’s production against the Rams, who came into Week 7 allowing 4.0 ypc, but Carnell Williams looks like the third-down back and who knows what Graham’s role will be when he returns. Blount is definitely worth a pickup, but he’s not a no-brainer to lead the Bucs in carries the rest of the way.

Willis McGahee (60.0)
He started to hit waiver wires after a goose egg in Week 6, but it looks like the Ravens just held him back so that he wouldn’t get injured in case they were able to trade him before the deadline. But he has scored a TD and received at least 10 carries in three of the last four weeks.

Danny Woodhead (28.1)
He didn’t match his Week 6 totals, but he still gained 52 total yards and touched the ball 11 times. He also led all Patriot RBs in snaps, by a pretty wide margin, so clearly the Pats see him as more than just a third-down specialist. He should be owned in most leagues, especially those with PPR formats.

Chris Ivory (45.1)
Pierre Thomas’s ankle injury continues to linger, and Ivory may remain the team’s primary ball carrier in the short term. But Reggie Bush should be back this week and will take a few (or a lot) of those touches away. Throw in a brutal matchup with the Steelers and, well, there you have it…

Mike Hart (1.7)
He’ll likely back up Donald Brown if Joseph Addai is out (as expected). Brown has been struggling with a hamstring injury, so Hart could be thrust into a starting role if Brown were to tweak it again.

Derrick Ward (3.2)
Ward has a TD in three straight games and is the primary backup to Arian Foster, who has been dealing with a knee injury.

Kenneth Darby (1.5)
Surprise! Steven Jackson had surgery on his finger. He may very well play in Week 8, but if you are an S-Jax owner or are desperate for a starter this week, Darby is worth a flier.

Ladell Betts (2.3)
Betts value will probably plummet upon Reggie Bush’s return, but he has scored at least 9.6 points in PPR leagues in each of the last four weeks.

Steve Johnson (14.5)
He now has five TDs in his last four games and posted 8-158-1 against a very good Ravens defense. He’s on pace for 67-992-13 this season, so if you’re still not on board, it’s time to take Johnson and the rest of the Bills’ passing attack seriously.

Mike Williams 2.0 (58.9)
He’s been solid all season and is on pace for 75-973-8.

Mike Williams 1.0 (60.5)
After just seven catches from Weeks 2-4, Williams 1.0 has exploded for 21 catches in the last two weeks. He is clearly Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite target.

Davone Bess (19.5)
How is this guy still available in more than 80% of fantasy leagues? He has posted 25-285-3 over the last four games. He should be owned in all PPR leagues.

Eddie Royal (60.2)
He has a bad hamstring, so he’s not startable right now. Not a bad guy to stash, however.

Vincent Jackson (53.1)
He can play starting in Week 12, just in time to get ready for your fantasy playoffs. If you have a strong team and can afford to stash him, do so.

Danny Amendola (19.1)
After 19 targets in Week 5, Amendola has been targeted just 10 times in the last two games. That’s enough to stay on the PPR radar, but he’s going to need 7-8 targets a game to become the next Wes Welker.

Anthony Gonzalez (3.3)
There was a report over the weekend that Gonzalez re-injured his ankle, but he says that it’s untrue and that he’ll be good to go for Week 8. If so, he’ll slide into the slot and take over Austin Collie’s role (while getting some of Dallas Clark’s work as well).

David Gettis (0.2)
Brandon LaFell (0.1)
The rookie duo erupted in Week 7 to the tune of 8-125-2 (Gettis) and 6-91 (LaFell). Color me skeptical, but if Matt Moore can keep it up, they could be useful in fantasy leagues. Gettis has the edge, with 18 catches on the season to LaFell’s 11. And don’t forget Steve Smith 1.0 is back and relatively healthy again.

Mario Manningham (47.6)
He has been boom or bust this year and would blow up if anything happened to Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith 2.0.

Dexter McCluster (12.4)
The Chiefs are starting to use McCluster like the Vikings use Percy Harvin. Todd Haley thinks he’s the best route-runner on the team and his nine touches in Week 7 were his highest of the season.

Jordan Shipley (2.5)
The odds are that Shipley’s 6-131-1 outing against the Falcons will be his best fantasy line of the season. But he’s back on the PPR radar after 10 catches in his first two games.

Nate Burleson (27.7)
10-106-2 in the last two weeks. I’m not sure what to make of Burleson, but his upcoming schedule (WAS, NYJ, BUF, DAL, NE) is outstanding.

Mike Thomas (10.3)
Thomas has been the Jags’ most consistent WR this season…until Week 7. I think his goose egg against the Chiefs was more of a function of his QB (Todd Bouman) than anything else. I wouldn’t cut him in PPR leagues unless there was a clearly better option available.

Blair White (0.3)
White is next up if the oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez gets hurt again. Lots of upside here with Austin Collie and Dallas Clark sidelined.

James Jones (1.7)
4-65 in Week 5, 0-0 in Week 6, 4-107 in Week 7…such is the life of the Packers’ WR3. Jones is a starter-caliber WR in the NFL, and as long as Donald Driver is hobbled, he should be a decent start in PPR leagues.

Steve Breaston (53.0)
He’s almost back. He had 14 catches in his first three games before the injury, but Arizona’s QB situation is scary.

Jacoby Jones (30.0)
Jones returned from a calf injury to post 4-45 in Week 6. (Kevin Walter didn’t register a catch.) Jones looks like the Texans’ WR2, but we don’t know for sure.

Patrick Crayton (4.3)
Craig Davis (3.5)
They’re filling in for Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, and only have (PPR) value in the short term.

Deon Butler (2.5)
He has been productive given his chances. If only Hasselbeck would look his way more often.

Louis Murphy (37.1)
Murphy has re-injured his clavicle and only seems to be productive when Bruce Gradkowski is playing QB. It may be time to cut bait if a better option presents itself.

Brandon Pettigrew (9.2)
Pettigrew has 32 receptions in his last five games, and he’s available more than 90% of fantasy leagues. Go figure. My only concern is whether or not Matthew Stafford will look his way as often as Shaun Hill did.

Heath Miller (53.5)
After a pretty nice (2-50-1) Week 6, Miller was relatively quiet (3-33) against the Dolphins. He has a very nice upcoming schedule, however.

Owen Daniels (52.5)
Is. He. Finally. Back? 8-124 on 12 targets in his last two games.

Todd Heap (31.0)
6-108-3 over the last two weeks will get Heap back on the fantasy radar, and quick. He has a bye this week and a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch.

Benjamin Watson (41.7)
After 22 receptions in his previous four games, Watson managed just 1-18 against the Saints. He’ll probably join Colt McCoy on his ups and downs.

Tony Moeaki (31.9)
Moeaki didn’t do much with great matchups in the last two weeks. After 23 targets in his first four games, Matt Cassel looked his way just six times in Week 6 and Week 7.

Jeremy Shockey (59.6)
He’s lost a step, but is dependable around the goal line. That means it’s either boom or bust (relatively speaking) with Shockey.

Greg Olsen (62.3)
Now that Jay Cutler is back, Olsen is a serviceable TE2 again.

Jermaine Gresham (10.5)
26 catches on the season is nothing to sneeze at, but Jordan Shipley is going to steal some of those short looks.

John Carlson (19.7)
I like him, but he had just one catch on six targets against the Cardinals. The upcoming schedule is pretty nice, however.

Kevin Boss (10.8)

Tony Scheffler (3.6)
Stafford seemed to like him a lot before the injury, so maybe they’ll pick up where they left off.

Andrew Quarless (0.7)
Caught a TD against the Vikings (sort of) and just missed on a fake FG big gainer.