As I’m sitting here attempting to start my fallout column, there’s a little two-and-a-half year old firefighter pestering me to go trick-or-treating, so don’t be surprised if this week’s version is abbreviated. I’m only going to focus on the truly surprising fantasy lines of the day.

EARLY GAMES

In my Waiver Wire Watch, I’ve been pushing Matthew Stafford (212 yards, 4 TDs) for the last couple of weeks and he delivered in a great matchup this week thanks to Calvin Johnson‘s (9-103-3) outstanding performance. The split in the backfield between Jahvid Best (17 touches, 79 yards) and Kevin Smith (14 touches, 67 yards) is a little worrisome, however. Smith has looked good in recent weeks in limited duty and we’ll have to wait and see if the Lions were limiting Best for any particular reason. Ryan Torain (12 touches, 29 yards, TD) left the game with a hamstring injury, and Keiland Williams (9 touches, 53 yards, TD) took his place. Williams may be a hot waiver wire pickup this week.

David Garrard (260 yards, 4 TD, rush TD) was a common pickup for a lot of Tony Romo owners who were scrambling for QB help this week, and boy, did he deliver. Mike Sims-Walker (8-153-1) exploded with a big game as well. Garrard has his bye next week and then has two good matchups in Weeks 10 (HOU) and 11 (CLE), so he’s a good play, at least in the short-term. And don’t read too much into Jon Kitna‘s so-so week (379 yards, TD, 4 INT). With the way that the Dallas DT is playing (poorly), the Cowboys are going to be in a lot of shootouts this season and that should mean some nice fantasy lines from Kitna. Felix Jones‘s struggles (11 touches, 36 yards) are very troublesome — I’d probably bench him until he can get it going.

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Anthony Stalter (under TheScoresReport) and I (under fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 8. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…

I feel your pain, Romo owners. I had him in two of my six leagues, and was ill-prepared for an injury to my star QB. In one league, I managed to pick up Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, and in the other, I was only able to get Jason Campbell and David Garrard.

It seems like a good time to recalculate our Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) to see what QB pairs have a combined schedule that will get us through the rest of the season. It’s fine to trade away depth at RB or WR in order to land a solid QB, but in many cases it’s unnecessary. A problem at QB is one of the easiest to mask since there is so much depth at the position. In most leagues, you can get capable QB play by picking up a couple of guys on the waiver wire and using them in tandem.

To that end, I looked at the 18 (at least somewhat decent) QBs most likely to be available on your waiver wire. In order of decreasing availability (in ESPN leagues), the list includes:

Donovan McNabb (94.2)
Jay Cutler (86.4)
Brett Favre (86.2)
Carson Palmer (83.4)
Mark Sanchez (68.6)
Vince Young (62.3)
Chad Henne (60.9)
Matt Cassel (42.1)
Sam Bradford (28.6)
Matthew Stafford (27.1)
David Garrard (26.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8)
Josh Freeman (23.1)
Matt Hasselbeck (20.8)
Alex Smith/Troy Smith (12.7)
Jon Kitna (10.9)
Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell (5.1)
Matt Moore (1.8)

I tweaked Footballguys’ rest-of-year (through Week 16) projections to reflect my own ranking for each player. I then applied FBG’s strength of schedule to calculate a projected points for all the remaining games, and then used a giant Excel spreadsheet to determine the best QB pairs for the remainder of the season.

The two best QBBCs are Stafford/Cutler and Stafford/McNabb, but since Cutler and McNabb aren’t readily available in most leagues, we have to dig a little deeper. The third-highest QBBC is Stafford/Fitzpatrick, which has an average percent-owned of 26.5%, so the duo might be available in your league. Stafford/Freeman and Fitzpatrick/Freeman come in at #5 and #6, respectively.

Below is a table of all 153 possible combinations. Duos that are listed in green have an average percent-owned of less than 20% (meaning there’s a decent chance that they’re available), while duos listed in red have an average percent-owned between 20% and 40%. I included expected points (in a high performance scoring system) for Weeks 8-16 and for Weeks 9-16 in case you find this article after the Week 8 games.

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Updated Sunday, October 31st.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 7 picks fared:

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Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (usually Wednesday or Thursday) when I’ll release my official Week 8 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Tony Romo owners: Don’t get depressed. It’s no fun to lose your star QB, but of all the positions in fantasy football, QB is one of the easiest to mask/fix. If you don’t already have a capable backup, target two decent QBs that look to have a fairly easy combined schedule and form your own midseason QBBC.

Chad Henne (59.7)
Henne has averaged 289 yards and 1.8 TD in the last four games, and Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess are a pretty good pair of wideouts to throw to.

Matthew Stafford (21.9)
Stafford should return in Week 8 and has several good matchups (WAS, NYJ, BUF, DAL, NE) over the next five weeks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (5.3)
I thought Fitzy might struggle against the league’s 3rd-ranked pass defense, but that didn’t happen (374 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT). The Bills’ defense is pretty bad so he’ll have to throw, throw and throw some more, and Lee Evans and Steve Johnson are coming on. The schedule isn’t great, but after Week 7…does it matter?

Jon Kitna (0.1)
Kitna had a few good fantasy years in his day and he’ll take over as the starter or as long as Tony Romo is out. The Cowboys have a ton of offensive weapons, so he could be a serviceable starter.

Matt Cassel (37.8)
True, he looked brutal early in the season, but he has five TDs and zero picks in the last two games, and another easy matchup against the Bills in Week 8.

Josh Freeman (16.5)
Steady as she goes: Freeman has at least 212 yards or two TD passes in five of six games this season. And the one bad game was against Pittsburgh. With Arizona and Atlanta up next, Freeman is a decent spot starter in the short term.

Sam Bradford (29.4)
He didn’t throw for a lot of yards, but the rookie tossed two more TDs to give him a total of nine in seven games. A bad matchup with the Panthers awaits in Week 8, but things get a lot easier after his Week 9 bye.

Matt Hasselbeck (21.5)
With just four TDs in the last five games, Hasselbeck has little upside, but he can get you through a rough patch if he has a decent matchup.

Matt Moore (1.2)
Who is this guy? Moore looked terrific against the 49ers, and if rookies David Gettis and Brandon LaFell can grow up quickly, Moore could turn into a solid QB2.

Jason Campbell (4.7)
He filled in admirably and if he keeps winning, he could stick as the starter even when Bruce Gradkowski comes back.

Colt McCoy (2.3)
After a 281-yard, one-TD outing against the Steelers, McCoy only threw for 74 yards against the Saints. It just goes to show that the Browns are going to play conservative when they have the lead.

Max Hall (1.6)
He was replaced after a blow to the head, but Ken Whisenhunt says he’s still the starter if healthy. This is a situation to avoid if you can.

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- Donovan McNabb (240 yards, 3 TD) shredded a dinged-up Giants secondary.

- Mark Sanchez (265 yards, 2 TD) was able to take advantage of the Dolphins young CBs.

- Alex Smith (198 yards, TD, INT) had a better-than-expected game against the Colts’ stingy pass defense.

- Neither Matthew Stafford (168 yards, INT) nor Marc Bulger (176 yards, INT) played well even though they both had great matchups.

- Tony Romo (256 yards, 3 TD) posted big numbers for the third straight week. He has 918 yards and 8 TD over that span, but faces a tough test in Philly next week.

- Jay Cutler (225 yards, INT) had a very disappointing day against the Browns.

- Coming into Week 8, the Titans had the league’s worst pass defense, so David Garrard’s performance (139 yards, 2 INT) is a major disappointment.

- Vince Young completed 15/18 passes (for 125 yards and TD) en route to a nice day. He also ran 12 times for 30 yards. If Young wants to get back to what made him so successful in his rookie season, he needs to run the ball.

- Kurt Warner (242 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT) turned the ball over six times.

- Brett Favre (244 yards, 4 TD) stuck it to his old team. He was sharp, but the Packers weren’t able to put much pressure on him.

- Aaron Rodgers (287 yards, 3 TD) played well in a tough situation, or at least in the second half. He is still taking sacks that he shouldn’t be.

- Remember when Willis McGahee (3 touches, 3 yards) was eating into Ray Rice’s (28 touches, 108 yards, TD) workload? That’s not happening anymore.

- Knowshon Moreno (12 touches, 35 yards, TD) scored, but Correll Buckhalter (14 touches, 46 yards) got more work in the passing game (6-30).

- LeSean McCoy (13 touches, 92 yards) was quiet most of the day, but busted loose on a 66-yards scamper early in the fourth quarter to put the game away.

- After getting shredded by the Miami running game earlier in the seasons, the Jets shut down both Ronnie Brown (11 carries, 27 yards) and Ricky Williams (8 carries, 27 yards).

- The Jets leaned more on Thomas Jones (27 carries, 102 yards) than expected. Shonn Greene (8 carries, 18 yards) fell back to Earth after a huge Week 7.

- Steven Jackson (25 touches, 166 yards, TD) continues to have a Pro Bowl caliber season for a terrible team.

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- The Ravens did a nice job holding down the Denver passing game. Brandon Marshall (4-24) and Eddie Royal (2-10) didn’t do much.

- Braylon Edwards (4-74-1) and Jerricho Cotchery (3-70) were targeted 10 times and 8 times, respectively.

- Reggie Wayne (12-147-1) was questionable coming in, but had a huge game against a 49ers defense did a good job of keeping the Colts out of the endzone.

- Michael Crabtree (6-81) has quickly become quite startable in PPR formats. Alex Smith targeted him nine times.

- Donnie Avery (1-15) was a no show against a pretty bad Lions pass defense and can’t be trusted in fantasy starting lineups.

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