Ray Rice has been battling a knee injury, but it didn’t appear to bother him on Sunday, as he gained 133 yards on 27 carries with two touchdowns. Willis McGahee failed to punch it in from close early in the game, so the Ravens used Rice around the goal line and he rewarded them with two scores. He’s back in ‘must-start’ territory going forward. Anquan Boldin (1-8) was very quiet and Joe Flacco (198 yards) didn’t throw for a TD, but he snuck one in early on. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Lloyd (5-135-1) — this year’s Miles Austin? — and Jabar Gaffney (9-87) helped Kyle Orton (314 yards, 2 TD) to another good fantasy line.

Another guy who is oscillating in and out of ‘stud’ territory is Maurice Jones-Drew, who only gained 84 yards in a great matchup against a terrible Bills’ rush defense. It’s important to note that rookie Deji Karim (15 carries, 70 yards) was the Jags’ RB2 this week. Marcedes Lewis (4-54-2) and Mike Sims-Walker (4-46-1) led the Jags in receiving. For the Bills, Steve Johnson (5-46-2) caught a TD for the third straight game.

For the Bucs, I’ve seen some owners considering cutting rookie Mike Williams (7-99-1), but his performance in a tough matchup proves that he’s absolutely worth holding onto. The Tampa Bay RBBC is getting ugly with Carnell Williams (11 touches, 33 yards), Earnest Graham (3 carries, 65 yards, TD), LeGarrette Blount (4 carries, 3 yards) and Kareem Huggins (1 carry, 4 yards) all getting some work. For the Bengals, Terrell Owens (7-102-1) had another big game while Chad Ochocinco (3-20) was once again quiet.

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Anthony Stalter (under TheScoresReport) and I (under fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 3. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…

Updated 10/10/10

Below are my rankings for Week 5. I’m participating in a study as part of Fantasy Pros, where they keep track of the accuracy of many of the top fantasy ‘experts’ around the country. As of Week 4, I’m ranked #2 out of 39 experts that post their rankings at the site. If you utilize my advice on the Q&A, please take a moment to sign up at Fantasy Pros (it’s free) and rate me as an expert.

These rankings are for a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. I’ll update these rankings as the week goes on, so be sure to check back.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB @ WAS)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. KC)
3. Philip Rivers (SD @ OAK)
4. Drew Brees (NO @ ARI)
5. Tony Romo (DAL vs. TEN)
6. Eli Manning (NYG @ HOU)
7. Matt Ryan (ATL @ CLE)
8. Joe Flacco (BAL vs. DEN)
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF vs. JAC)
10. Kyle Orton (DEN @ BAL)
11. Matt Schaub (HOU vs. NYG)
12. Shaun Hill (DET vs. STL)
13. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. GB)
14. Sam Bradford (STL @ DET)
15. Brett Favre (MIN @ NYJ)
16. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. TB)
17. Bruce Gradkowski (OAK vs. SD)
18. David Garrard (JAC @ BUF)
19. Mark Sanchez (NYJ vs. MIN)
20. Matt Cassel (KC @ IND)
21. Vince Young (TEN @ DAL)
22. Kevin Kolb (PHI @ SF)
23. Alex Smith (SF vs. PHI)
24. Josh Freeman (TB @ CIN)
25. Max Hall (ARI vs. NO)

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Updated 10/7/10 with the news that Jay Cutler would miss Week 5.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 4 picks fared:

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Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network writes that second-year Brandon Tate is poised to become a big contributor in the Pats’ offense:

And BrandonTate will be the deep threat for the Pats, and he is really an explosive talented player who will become a major contribuator now

I did one of these “what can we expect” posts for Bruce Gradkowski, so let’s take a closer look at Tate and try to estimate what kind of numbers he’ll put up the rest of the way.

After four games, Tate is 4th on the Pats in targets (14), but of all the team’s receivers, he figures to see the biggest boost in snaps since he’ll be replacing Randy Moss in the starting lineup. Let’s say that, in addition to his current 3.5 targets per game, he gets two-thirds of Moss’s targets (5.5 * 0.67). That’s about 7.2 per game. He’s currently converting 79% of his targets into receptions, which is unlikely to continue since he’ll probably be running deeper routes. Let’s say he converts at 60% and averages, say, 14.0 ypc (he’s currently averaging 12.3 ypc). That works out to 4.3 catches for 60 yards per game. So in a PPR league, he’s already at 10.3 points, and I’ve been pretty conservative in my estimates. And we haven’t even accounted for touchdowns or his explosive return game yet.

I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, what he thinks of Tate and this is what he said:

he’s lean, but has good size…good quickness, but not overly fast…he’s not that great of a route-runner at this point in his career and relies too much on athletic ability…he can be elusive, but like I said – he’s more quick than fast…soft hands, good body control…Davone Bess is a good comparison, although I think Tate may be faster straight-line.

Projecting out 4.3 catches for 60 yards and let’s say 0.3 TD per game, and Tate looks like a 69-960-5 player over a full 16-game season. Last season, those were WR22-type numbers in PPR leagues.

In other words, pick him up.

The Boston Herald is reporting that a Moss-to-Minnesota deal could be finalized by Wednesday.

Wow, this one sure came out of nowhere. Though I suppose we should have seen the writing on the wall given Randy Moss’s preseason griping about the fact that he doesn’t have a long-term contract. While a move away from Tom Brady and the Pats’ pass-happy offense might seem like a hit to Randy’s stock, it isn’t. He was targeted a total of four times in the last two weeks and his goose egg in Week 4 is alarming. In fact, he is #41 amongst WRs in total targets (22, or 5.5 per game), and even with his 3:1 completion to TD ratio, that’s not enough work to justify his first or second round ADP. As a Packer fan, I cringe at the thought of a happy and motivated Moss back in the purple and gold, but as a fantasy owner (in two leagues), I’m happy he’s getting a change of scenery. I’d expect him to get all of Sidney Rice’s targets (7.7 per game, maybe more) as long as Rice as out.

For the Vikings, this is a big bump for the entire offense, save for Visanthe Shiancoe, who probably won’t enjoy quite as many looks now that Brett Favre can chuck it downfield with more confidence. Farve obviously gets a bump, Percy Harvin should have more room to roam, and there should be one less man in the box trying to stop Adrian Peterson.

For the Patriots, I’d expect Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez to pick up most of the slack, but Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski should get a bit of extra work as well. The Patriots are getting less vertical with this move, so it’s going to hurt Tom Brady a little because he’s going to have one less weapon in his arsenal. And it was one of his big weapons, for sure. This could mean the running game will be featured more, as BenJarvus Green-Ellis seems to be coming into his own.

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until Friday when I’ll release my official Week 5 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). Special thanks to “DaKid” for commenting on FantasyPros last week.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Bruce Gradkowski (5.1)
He doesn’t have the greatest matchup this week (SD), but Week 6 (@SF) and Week 7 (@ DEN) get easier. He has thrown for 533 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs in the last two weeks.

Sam Bradford (23.1)
He’s not setting the world on fire, but with a per-game average of 236 yards and 1.5 TDs, he’s playing very well for a rookie. He has the Lions this week as well, which makes him an interesting pickup for Mike Vick owners.

Matt Hasselbeck (29.2)
Hass has been solid, but he didn’t do much in a good matchup with the Rams. The Seahawks are on bye this week and have the Bears in Week 6, so if you need a QB in the next two weeks, look elsewhere.

Josh Freeman (13.4)
Coming off his bye, Freeman has a bad matchup with the Bengals this week, but things get back to normal with the Saints, Rams and Cardinals after that.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (1.1)
Need a fill in for Week 5? Fitzy has a nice matchup at home against the Jaguars, who are coming off an emotional win over the Colts. He has tossed four TDs over the last two weeks and even ran for 74 yards against the Jets in Week 4.

Kevin Kolb (57.8)
Kolb breaks my under-50%-owned rule, but I thought I’d include him given the magnitude of Michael Vick’s injury in the world of fantasy football. Kolb threw for 201 yards and a TD in a good matchup against the Redskins, and has a pretty good matchup with the 49ers in Week 5. I’m not terribly optimistic about his chances for fantasy success over the next three weeks.

David Garrard (24.2)
Garrard looked like his old self against the Colts, but he has a tendency to play worse on the road. Still, the Bills are a good matchup.

Alex Smith (11.7)
Spotty is the word that I’d use to describe Smith this season. Who knows how he’ll play against the Eagles in Week 5.

Matt Cassel (10.2)
Cassel was pretty dreadful in the first two weeks, but tossed three TDs against the 49ers in Week 3. Coming off his bye, he has the Colts, Texans, Jaguars and Bills, so he could be a decent spot starter for fantasy owners in need.

Shaun Hill (2.8)

Jimmy Clausen (1.3)

Max Hall (0.4)

Seneca Wallace (0.9)

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- It’s not surprising that Ben Roethlisberger (277 yards, 3 TD, INT) had a nice game against the Lions, but it is surprising that he had to throw the ball 30 times.

- Matt Cassel (253 yards, 2 TD) struggled to stay upright behind Kansas City’s shaky line, but finished with nice numbers.

- Tony Romo (351 yards, 2 TD) didn’t play quite as well as his numbers would indicate, as Miles Austin’s spectacular runs saved the day for the Cowboys.

- Donovan McNabb (264 yards, 3 TD) posted great numbers against a very bad Bucs pass defense.

- Josh Johnson (240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT) is going to have his share of struggles, but he’s going to produce some decent fantasy numbers since the Bucs look like they’ll be trailing a lot this season. Along with Kellen Winslow, if Antonio Bryant can stay healthy, Johnson will have a couple of good options in the passing game. He also runs the ball pretty well (5 carries, 40 yards against the Eagles).

- Kyle Orton (330 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) had his best game of the season, but almost gave the game away when he underthrew Brandon Marshall in overtime. He was lucky that pass didn’t get picked off.

- Think the Seahawks need Matt Hasselbeck (241 yards, 4 TD)? Granted, Jacksonville’s defense is pretty terrible, but Hass was sharp in his first game back.

- Just a tremendous effort from Cedric Benson (29 touches, 136 yards) who became the first RB to rush for more than 100 yards against the Ravens. He looks like an every-week start.

- Ray Rice (14 carries, 69 yards) ran the ball well and caught seven passes for 74 yards and a TD. Willis McGahee surprisingly only got two touches the entire game.

- Marshawn Lynch (23 touches, 125 yards) seems to be taking over in the Buffalo backfield, but Fred Jackson (15 touches, 47 yards) is still involved.

- Jamal Lewis (31 carries, 117 yards) was questionable all week, but dominated the carries in the Cleveland backfield. Jerome Harrison only had eight carries for 21 yards.

- Jonathan Stewart (11 touches, 45 yards, TD) was healthy enough to eat into DeAngelo Williams’ (20 touches, 59 yards) workload, and it was Stewart who got most of the goal line work.

- Clinton Portis (21 touches, 74 yards, 2 TD) didn’t run the ball all that well, but he scored twice against the Panthers.

- Rashard Mendenhall (17 touches, 93 yards, TD) had another nice game with Willie Parker out, and he should have earned himself some more work even when Parker returns.

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