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Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 17

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you have a bona fide RB1 with a good matchup waiting in the wings.

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 17

Most fantasy football leagues held their championship games last week, but there are still a few holdout leagues that schedule their title games for Week 17. To that end, here are a few players that I like, and a few that I don’t.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

The Steelers need a win, and Ben Roethlisberger has a great matchup against the Dolphins’ 23rd-ranked pass defense (allowing 236 yards, 1.3 TD per game)…The Giants have struggled to stop the pass of late and phoned it in against the Panthers last week, so Brett Favre should have a good game, especially since the Vikings need to win…The Browns have a sketchy pass defense, so David Garrard should have a nice line in a game that the Jags have to win to have a shot at the postseason…Desperate? Josh Freeman has a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are ranked 28th against the pass. Matt Ryan and Co. looked pretty good in Week 16, so the Bucs will likely have to throw to stay in the game.

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 17

Most leagues held their championship games last week, but if you’re league is still going, feel free to post your lineup questions here and I’ll do my best to answer them. Be sure to provide your lineup requirements and the type of scoring system your league uses (standard, PPR, TD-heavy).

Fire away.

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 17

For all intents and purposes, the fantasy football season is over. Most leagues (wisely) hold their championships in Week 16 to avoid the kind of debacle situation that happened yesterday in the Colts game.

So in lieu of our normal list of waiver wire pickups, I’m going to list a few guys that might be able to help a team that has another game to play in Week 17. I’m looking for two things: 1) the player is readily available on the waiver wire and 2) has a good matchup in Week 17.

Josh Freeman (2.6)
Freeman has averaged 208 yards and 1.1 TD in eight starts and has a nice matchup with a sketchy Falcons defense in Week 17. He throws a lot of picks (2.0 per game), but if you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize too heavily for INTs, he wouldn’t be a bad Week 17 play. Atlanta’s offense is picking up now that Matt Ryan is back under center so the Bucs will probably have to throw to stay in the game.

Justin Forsett (54.6)
Julius Jones re-aggravated his ankle and ribs against the Packers, so expect Forsett to carry the load in Week 17 against a Titans defense that had trouble keeping LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles in check. Forsett is a Sproles-like back, so he should have success against Tennessee.

Donald Brown (58.1)
Brown will probably get the start against the Bills’ league-worst rush defense. Don’t let his numbers (16 carries, 22 yards, TD) against the Jets worry you. He should have a big game against the hapless Bills.

Sammy Morris (33.0)
It looks like Laurence Maroney fumbled his way out of the Pats’ RB1 job. He had four carries for 22 yards before fumbling the ball on his fifth carry as he headed into the endzone. Sammy Morris took over and rushed the ball 12 times for 95 yards and a TD. Moreover, he has a pretty good matchup in Week 17 with the Texans.

Austin Collie (37.6)
He doesn’t have a great matchup (BUF), but the Bills were torched last week against the Falcons, and with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark likely limited or sidelined, Collie could be in for a big day.

Muhsin Muhammad (17.2)
Muhammad’s days of consistent domination are long over, but with Steve Smith sidelined with a broken arm, Muhammad figures to get the lion’s share of targets in a very good matchup against the Saints. New Orleans should be able to put some points on the board, so expect the Panthers to throw the ball to try to stay in the game.

Jermichael Finley (26.7)
He’s still out there on almost three-quarters of ESPN waiver wires and I have no idea why. He has gone over 70 yards receiving in four consecutive games and has three TD in that span. With a nice matchup against Arizona in Week 17, another nice outing is likely.

Todd Heap (38.8)
The four TD that Heap has scored the last two weeks came completely out of nowhere — zero TD in the previous 11 games — but he seems to be rolling now and although the Raiders aren’t a great matchup, he is a big target in the Ravens’ passing game, especially with Mark Clayton sidelined and Derrick Mason banged up.

David Thomas (1.7)
As long as Jeremy Shockey is sidelined, Thomas is a starter-caliber TE, at least in PPR leagues. He has 13 catches for 102 yards over the last two weeks, so if Shockey sits again, Thomas should have a solid outing against a Carolina defense that is better against wideouts than it is against tight ends.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Week 17 fantasy football “free-for-all” picks

Most fantasy leagues (wisely) wrapped up their playoffs last week, so we’re not going to do our traditional fantasy football posts — waiver wire watch, love ‘em & leave ‘em, Q&A — this week. Instead, since a few online leagues do a “free-for-all” contest in Week 17, I thought I’d list a few players to consider.

The last week of the season is pretty dicey for fantasy owners since some teams have wrapped up playoff spots and/or positions and are resting their players. Other teams are out of the hunt and are thinking about where they want to spend their vacation this spring. So what I’m looking for when putting together a “free-for-all” lineup are players/teams that still have something to play for. It helps if they are playing for a playoff spot, a new contract or if they’re just trying to play spoiler against a rival. Of course, favorable matchups are important too.

I’ll list my top five players at each position (three for TEs, kickers and defenses) along with a brief explanation of why I think they’ll perform well this week.

Quarterbacks

1. Jay Cutler
His date with the Chargers is essentially a playoff game, so the Broncos will be focused on a much-needed win. San Diego owns the 31st-ranked pass defense and has allowed 1.6 pass TD per game this season. Plus, the weather should be pretty nice.

2. Phillip Rivers
“The Blockhead” — my new nickname for him — has a great matchup with Denver’s #27 pass defense. The Broncos are a little better in pass TD allowed per game (1.2 per game) and they are playing better of late, which is why he trails Cutler on this list.

3. Drew Brees
Overall, the Panthers have a pretty good pass defense, but they’ve been pretty generous to QBs over the last month and a half. Brees is chasing Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record and the Saints proved last week that they are still trying to win football games. As an added bonus, the game is indoors.

4. Aaron Rodgers
Barring horrible weather, I’d expect a big game from Rodgers and Co. as they take out a season of frustration on the hapless Lions, who are too busy booking their vacation accommodations to worry about playing a football game.

5. Matt Cassel
The Bills would love to play spoiler, but Cassel is rolling right now and Buffalo has been weak against the pass of late. Keep an eye on the weather though.


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