HEROES

Danny Woodhead
Rob Gronkowski
I started both of these players in the aforementioned title game, and they stepped up big. Woody scored on a 29-yard run early in the game and finished with 125 total yards, while Gronkowski went for 4-54-2 with Aaron Hernandez sidelined. Gronk became a very solid TE1 start once Hernandez was ruled out, but Woody was a fringe guy that fantasy owners were running out there and hoping for the best. He delivered.

Matt Forte
Johnny Knox
It took a certain amount of courage to start Forte this week given his matchup with a good Jets rush defense and his spotty production at times. But he gained 169 total yards and scored on a 22-yard run. I was going against Knox in the aforementioned title game, which is why I’m still sweating that win out. Knox caught two TDs and racked up 92 yards through the air while facing Darrelle Revis and a pretty good Jets’ pass defense.

Aaron Rodgers
We expected a good game out of Rodgers, but not 404 yards and four TDs against a Giants’ defense that had been a bad matchup for opposing QBs this season.

Jamaal Charles
Dwayne Bowe
I thought I might be listing Charles here when the week started but I honestly didn’t see Bowe’s huge day coming. He had caught just three passes in the previous three games, but for those who kept the faith (or were forced to start him), he delivered with 6-153-1. Too bad his W14 and W15 production (3-56 total) probably meant that those fantasy owners weren’t playing in the title game. On a side note, Jamaal Charles is a stud. He had 117 total yards and two TDs on just 17 touches.

Mike Thomas
I have a buddy who had to run Thomas out there in semi-desperation and the guy delivered with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.

Carson Palmer
Did anyone start Carson Palmer in a one-QB league in a terrible matchup against the Chargers without his two best WRs? Anyone? Anyone? The guy posted 269 yards and threw four TDs. (By the way, fantasy owners should keep an eye on Jerome Simpson for next season.)

Tim Tebow
I’ll be apologizing a little later for some bad advice I gave out regarding a certain Jacksonville running back, but I will take a bow here. I liked Tebow this week given his matchup and he delivered with 308 passing yards and threw for a TD while running for another.

Josh Freeman
I might be saving the best for last. Freeman tossed two TDs in the first half, and seeing as he hadn’t thrown for more than two TDs all season, fantasy owners probably wouldn’t have been surprised if he were done for the day. Yeah, well…he wasn’t. Freeman tossed three more TDs in the second half as the Bucs uncharacteristically kept throwing even though they were playing with a lead the entire second half. Throw in 237 yards and 23 rushing yards (an overlooked part of Freeman’s fantasy game) and you have the makings of a great fantasy day.

GOATS

Ryan Fitzpatrick and any WR in the NE/BUF game
Steve Johnson posted 5-58, but otherwise this was a very quiet game for wide receivers. Deion Branch (2-25), Wes Welker (3-19) and my super-deep sleeper of the week, David Nelson (0-0), were all very quiet. Ryan Fitzpatrick also deserves mention as a disappointment — he had 251 yards passing, but threw three picks and didn’t throw a TD (in what was shaping up to be a great matchup with the Pats’ secondary).

Anquan Boldin
2-15. Hello? Anquan, are you there? Yeah, the fantasy playoffs are going on and you only managed 6-58 over the last three weeks. Thanks for nothing, man.

Peyton Hillis
I try not to be alarmist about midweek injuries with stud players, but the news surrounding Hillis this week wasn’t great and I should have listened. Still, it’s tough to take a top 5 fantasy RB and rank him in the mid-teens. He’s in the top 5 for a reason. But the Ravens shut him down (40 total yards) on Sunday.

Chris Johnson
I started CJ2K in the aforementioned title game, which is part of the reason I’m sweating this win out. He only gained 58 rushing yards as the Titans pretty much abandoned the run as the Chiefs jumped out early in the game. Still, we CJ owners believe that he should be used in the passing game when Tennessee falls behind, but he had nary a catch on just two targets. Sigh.

Rashad Jennings
Time for me to apologize. I was very high on Jennings. Top 10 high, given the way the Jags were running the ball of late, MJD’s absence, the Redskins’ defense and Jennings’ ability. But sometimes in fantasy football, all the stars can align for a big game and for one reason or another, the player just can’t deliver. In this case, the Redskins’ rush defense really stepped up, holding the Jags to just 3.4 ypc and Jennings to just 2.1 ypc. He did catch four passes for 29 yards, but that’s small consolation for PPR owners.

Vincent Jackson
Sorry, V-Jax, but 4-54 just doesn’t cut it given your matchup and lack of passing options for Philip Rivers. Freaking Legedu Naaneee outgained you (4-59). Sigh.

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 15 picks fared:

#1 Patriots: 5 SK + 1 INT + INT RET TD + FR = 18 fantasy points
#2 Cardinals: 19 PA (2) + 2 SK + 1 FR = 5 fp
#3 Raiders: 2 SK + 1 FR + 1 Safety = 5 fp
#4 Chargers: 7 PA (6) + 6 SK + 1 INT = 13 fp
#5 Cowboys: 5 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 8 fp

Well, it wasn’t a disaster, but I was expecting more out of my #2 and #3 picks. The Cards didn’t do much against Jimmy Clausen, which was a surprise and the Raiders had a tough time wrangling Tim Tebow. The Chargers and Cowboys played pretty well however.

On the season, my picks are averaging 8.7 | 8.7 | 7.5 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for an overall average of 8.3 fantasy points per game. Those are DT6 numbers when you account for each team’s bye week.

Let’s take a look at my Week 15 picks keeping in mind that to be eligible, defenses must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. There are four teams that I like this week so hopefully fantasy owners can find at least one on their waiver wires. (If you still have the Pats from last week, just hold onto them. I like their matchup with the Bills.)

1. San Diego Chargers (@ CIN)
The Bungles have given up 11+ points to fantasy defenses in four of their last six games and the CHargers havee scored 10+ in four of their last five. That’s a good combination. Too bad the game isn’t in San Diego.

2. St. Louis Rams (vs. SF)
The Rams have been up and down this season, but so have the 49ers, who have given up 7+ fantasy points to opposing defenses in four of the last five games. There’s a lot on the line in this one so the crowd should be into it.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. SEA)
The Bucs haven’t had a very good fantasy defense this season, but Matt Hasselbeck is really struggling and the Seahawks only have Charlie Whitehurst behind him.

4. Dallas Cowboys (@ ARI)
Arizona has given up 9+ fantasy points in three of its last four games and 6+ in eight of its last nine. The Cowboys defense isn’t very good, but its played well fantasy-wise of late, scoring 8+ in four of its last six games.

It’s playoff time!

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 16 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

Welcome to an abbreviated version of the Waiver Wire Watch. It’s Week 16, and most fantasy teams have been eliminated or on cruise control, so instead of listing virtually every player available on the waiver wire, I’m just going to highlight a few players at each position that might be able to help fantasy teams in Week 16. As always, I’m going to limit my scope to those players available in at least 40% (or thereabout) of ESPN leagues. I’ll put the player’s percentage-owned next to their name.

Let’s start with the quarterback position, where I still find it amazing that Josh Freeman (69.8) is still available in 30% of leagues. Not only has he been very consistent this season, but he has a great matchup with the Seahawks in Week 16. I suspect he’ll be in my Top 12 when my rankings come out on Wednesday…Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.3) has the Patriots at home this week, and barring a snow storm, that’s shaping up to be a pretty good matchup. New England showed on Sunday night that its pass defense still leaves something to be desired…David Garrard (46.4) had a strong game against the Colts and has a terrific W16 matchup with the Redskins’ porous pass defense…Need a deep sleeper? Both Tim Tebow (4.0) and Rex Grossman (0.3) have nice matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, respectively. I wouldn’t trust either guy over a more established option, but if you’re desperate, you could do worse. These are some bad pass defenses we’re talking about.

At running back, things are pretty thin, as usual. Ryan Torain (66.6) will be flirting with a Top 10 ranking this week given his matchup with Jacksonville…Tashard Choice (17.8) bounced back from a disappointing W14 outing against the Eagles with 15 carries for 53 yards and a TD against the Redskins. He should get a similar workload against the Cards in W16…Donald Brown (64.2) had a breakout game against the Jaguars, and the Raiders have had trouble stopping the run this season…Rashad Jennings (15.7) gained 64 yards through the air in W15 and figures to be involved against a struggling Washington run defense…Maurice Morris (4.6) doesn’t have a great matchup, but he got starter’s touches in W15 and produced 109 rushing yards and even found the endzone…Toby Gerhart (6.5) will probably be back in a backup role in W16, but if the Vikings decide to rest Adrian Peterson again, he could make some hay against the Eagles.

At wide receiver, there are probably a few players out there who can help. Vincent Jackson (68.5) and Big Mike Williams (66.1) are obvious choices with favorable matchups…Davone Bess (25.2) came up big in PPR formats last week and has another pretty nice matchup with the Lions in W16…Anthony Armstrong (3.3) had his first 100-yard game of the season against the Cowboys and should be able to have a nice day against the Jags this week…I mentioned David Nelson (0.1) last week and he went out and caught three passes for 61 yards and a TD against the Dolphins. I’d expect a similar line against the Pats this week…Mike Thomas (21.2) has been relatively quiet lately, but with the Redskins up next, he might have a big game…Blair White (5.1) figures to get some of Austin Collie’s targets and is a fingers-crossed start against the Raiders this week…Josh Morgan (2.6) seems to be coming on. He has 10-188-1 over the last two weeks and has a good matchup with the Rams’ pass defense this week.

At tight end, both Aaron Hernandez (56.0) and Rob Gronkowski (37.3) have a chance to put up some numbers against the Bills, who have struggled against opposing TEs this season…Owen Daniels (47.4) looks pretty good since coming back from injury, and has nine catches for 136 yards over the last two weeks. His matchup with the Broncos is favorable…Jimmy Graham (1.8) has been a little hit or miss this year, but he had two TDs last wek and has gone for 72+ yards and/or a TD in four of his last six games.

Tank: Where’s your guy?

You: Should be here any minute.

Tank: He’s solid?

You: Yeah, I guess. He’s my long-lost uncle. I met him at our family reunion last month. He said if I knew of any fantasy leagues to let him know.

Phil: I can’t believe Ken’s wife forbade him to play the day before the draft. She forbade him.

Tank: Ridiculous.

There’s a knock on the door.

Tank: That’s your guy?

Phil answers the door. It’s your Uncle Nostradamus.

Nostradamus: What up, playas?

Tank: Nice beard.

Phil: Thanks for filling in last minute.

Nostradamus: No worries. Where is everyone?

Tank: We’ve got them on speakerphone.

Nostradamus: Sweet. Let’s do this. What’s my pick?

Phil: Well, Ken – the man with no testicles — had the #1 overall pick, so you get to go first. You know how to play?

Nostradamus: Is this a PPR league?

Phil: Yep. 18 rounds. You’re up.

For every pick Nostradamus stands up and proclaims his selection like he’s David Stern at the NBA Draft.

Nostradamus: With the first overall pick in the draft, I select Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee.

There’s laughter on the speakerphone.

Tank: No Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew?

Nostradamus: Nope. I’m predicting 2300 yards and 14 TD through Week 16.

Tank: You know LenDale White is still there.

Nostradamus: Non-factor.

The draft proceeds and AP, MJD, Forte, Turner, Steven Jackson, LT2, Fitz, AJ, DeAngelo, Randy Moss, Slaton, Gore, Calvin, Brees, Westy, Brady, Wayne, Boldin, Barber, Portis, Smith 1.0 and Greg Jennings are all taken.

Nostradamus stands up.

Nostradamus: With the final pick in the second round, I select Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay.

Tank: You’re taking Rodgers over Peyton Manning?

Nostradamus: Yep – I’m projecting at least 4200 yards and 33 TD, including four rush TD. The kid is going to the Pro Bowl. Manning isn’t even going to play a full game in Week 16.

Phil: All right, what’s your next pick?

Nostradamus: With the first pick in the third round, I select Wes Welker, WR, Patriots.

Phil: That’s reasonable.

Nostradamus: Thanks, but I’m not going to start him in Week 15. He’s going to struggle against Buffalo.

Phil: Um, okay.

The draft moves on and Brandon Jacobs, Peyton, Roddy White, Ronnie Brown, Bush, Colston, Bowe, Pierre, Kevin Smith, TO, Grant, Marshall, Witten, Housh, Ochocinco, Roy Williams, Warner, Gates, Lynch, Rivers, McFadden and Anthony Gonzalez are drafted.

After Tank takes Gonzalez, Nostradamus chuckles.

Tank: What?

Nostradamus: Nothing. Anthony Gonzalez is a solid pick. I just have this image in my head…

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Tank: Of what?

Nostradamus: Nothing. (chuckles again)

Phil: You’re up.

He rises again.

Nostradamus: With the last pick in the fourth round, I select Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.

Tank: You know Baltimore is a RBBC, right?

Nostradamus: I know it’s supposed to be a RBBC, but I’m projecting 1,900 yards and eight scores for Rice. He’s going to catch at least 74 passes this season. He’s golden in a PPR league.

Tank: What about McGahee?

Nostradamus: He’ll get off to a nice start, but suddenly fall off a cliff.

Phil: What’s your next pick?

Nostradamus: With the first pick in the fifth round, I select Dallas Clark, TE, Colts. Top TE this season.

Phil: I guess I could see that.

The draft proceeds and Braylon, Knowshon, Derrick Ward, Addai, Gonzo, TJ, Vincent Jackson, Romo, Larry Johnson –-

Nostradamus chuckles.

– Holmes, McNabb, Bryant, DeSean, Eddie Royal –-

He chuckles again.

– Fast Willie, Beanie, Jonathan Stewart, Driver, Lee Evans, Matt Ryan, Schaub and Jay Cutler all go.

He stands up.

Nostradamus: With the last pick in the sixth round, I select Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins. Both of my RBs have a bye in Week 7 and he’s going to score three times against the Saints that week. I probably won’t even have to start another RB.

Tank: Yeah, yeah. Whatever, ZZ Top. What’s your next pick?

Nostradamus: With the first pick in the seventh round, I select Brent Celek, TE, Eagles.

More laughter on the speakerphone.

Nostradamus: Laugh if you want, but he’s going to rack up 69 catches for 875 yards and eight touchdowns this year, and he’s going to have a big Week 16 when my starter – Clark – is only going to play half the game. Otherwise, I’d go with Vernon Davis, but he’s going to tail off at the end of the season.

Phil: You think Vernon Davis is going to have a good year?

Nostradamus: Big time.

As the draft proceeds, Nostradamus starts to scribble furiously on a pad of paper. Santana Moss, Cotch, Cooley, Lance Moore, Olsen, Palmer, Felix, Hines, Avery, Winslow, Big Ben, Berrian, Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, Daniels, Donald Brown, Holt, Walter, Lendale, Leon Washington, Hester and Cassel are taken.

Nostradamus: All right, I gotta bounce. I’m going to take Steve Smith 2.0 and Darren Sproles here and my nephew will have the rest of my picks.

He hands you a folded piece of paper.

You: Um, okay.

Phil: Wait, what’s your team name?

Nostradamus: (he stares at Tank) How about Just Got Paid, in honor of the ZZ Top song?

Tank grunts.

Phil: What about your dues?

Nostradamus: My nephew has me covered. Late!

He leaves.

Tank: Who is that guy?

You open the piece of paper. It reads:

Dear Nephew,

– N.

Uncle Nostradamus’s final roster:

QB: Rodgers, Henne, Moore
RB: C. Johnson, R. Rice, R. Williams, Sproles, Charles, Harrison
WR: Welker, Smith 2.0, Austin, S. Rice, Sims-Walker
TE: Clark, Celek

Tom Brady & Randy Moss
This duo came through in a big way in Week 16. Brady threw for 267 yards and four TD while Moss had 4-45 and three TD. Moss also came up pretty big in Week 15 (5-70-1), but anyone that had Brady going that week probably wasn’t playing in the title game in Week 16. (He only threw for 115 yards and a TD against the Bills.)

Matt Ryan & Roddy White
I own a few leagues with a buddy of mine and we were in a quandary at QB. We had Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel on our roster, but neither guy was very appealing this week. Cutler seems to have given up on the season and Cassel had a bad matchup against a good Bengals defense. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman were on the waiver wire and we ended up going with Freeman because he had been quite solid since taking over as the starter in Tampa. We figured that a matchup with the Saints would offer plenty of opportunity to throw. Besides, Ryan was facing the Bills who had been great against opposing QBs in recent weeks. Well, we should have gone with Matty Ice. He threw for 250 yards and three TD, and we would have won had we plugged him in. His favorite target, Roddy White, also rewarded owners that stuck with him after he had averaged 3-37 over the last two weeks. He posted 8-139-2 against the Bills, and will be the difference in more than a few championship games this week.

Todd Heap
All Heap did the last two weeks was catch seven balls for 93 yards and four TD. That’s right — four TD. Funny story: In my auction league, when Owen Daniels went down midseason and I unwisely gambled all of my bidding bucks on Chris Cooley’s failed comeback attempt, I ended up trading away Laurence Maroney for Todd Heap, and I didn’t start him in Week 15 or Week 16. What can I say? The guy averaged 2.5-28-0.0 the previous four weeks. Who knew he’d catch four TD in the next two games? Anyone forced to start him got a nice surprise in the fantasy playoffs.

Jonathan Stewart
It must have been a tough week to have DeAngelo Williams and not have Stewart as a backup. He had 28 carries for 206 yards and a TD against a Giants team that desperately needed a win. That’s impressive. In Week 15, he had 109 yards and a score against the Vikings, who have one of the best rush defenses in the league. Let this be a lesson to those owners who draft Williams next season — you better get Stewart as insurance.

Donovan McNabb & Brent Celek
The Eagles almost lost the game, but McNabb posted a great line that probably won a few fantasy championships this week. He had 322 yards, three TD and also ran for 29 yards. As a result, Celek was a difference-maker at TE this week. He went for 4-121-1, catching a 47-yard pass from McNabb in the second quarter.

Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark & Joseph Addai
We were all ready to bench our Indy studs in Week 16, figuring that they’d play maybe a half of football before leaving the game. But then Manning tells Rachel Nichols this morning that he thinks he would play a full game if it stayed competitive. Suddenly, fantasy owners were scrambling to get these Colts back in the lineup. Sure enough, midway through the third with the game still very competitive, Indy pulled its starters. Manning finished with 192 yards and zero TD, Addai with 40 yards and a TD, Clark with 4-57 and Wayne with 3-33. Fantasy owners with Addai or Clark in their starting lineups probably got by with their limited output, but those that had Manning or Wayne found themselves behind the eight ball.

Photo from fOTOGLIF