Welcome to the third edition of “Heroes & Goats” where we identify a few borderline players who stepped up big in the fantasy playoff along with a few who were major disappointments. If you’re like me and are sweating out a championship game — I’m up 36 in one league against Drew Brees and Garrett Hartley tomorrow night, which puts me in a precarious position — you’ll no doubt see a few familiar names below. Let’s start with our heroes.

HEROES

Danny Woodhead
Rob Gronkowski
I started both of these players in the aforementioned title game, and they stepped up big. Woody scored on a 29-yard run early in the game and finished with 125 total yards, while Gronkowski went for 4-54-2 with Aaron Hernandez sidelined. Gronk became a very solid TE1 start once Hernandez was ruled out, but Woody was a fringe guy that fantasy owners were running out there and hoping for the best. He delivered.

Matt Forte
Johnny Knox
It took a certain amount of courage to start Forte this week given his matchup with a good Jets rush defense and his spotty production at times. But he gained 169 total yards and scored on a 22-yard run. I was going against Knox in the aforementioned title game, which is why I’m still sweating that win out. Knox caught two TDs and racked up 92 yards through the air while facing Darrelle Revis and a pretty good Jets’ pass defense.

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What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

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The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 15 picks fared:

#1 Patriots: 5 SK + 1 INT + INT RET TD + FR = 18 fantasy points
#2 Cardinals: 19 PA (2) + 2 SK + 1 FR = 5 fp
#3 Raiders: 2 SK + 1 FR + 1 Safety = 5 fp
#4 Chargers: 7 PA (6) + 6 SK + 1 INT = 13 fp
#5 Cowboys: 5 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 8 fp

Well, it wasn’t a disaster, but I was expecting more out of my #2 and #3 picks. The Cards didn’t do much against Jimmy Clausen, which was a surprise and the Raiders had a tough time wrangling Tim Tebow. The Chargers and Cowboys played pretty well however.

On the season, my picks are averaging 8.7 | 8.7 | 7.5 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for an overall average of 8.3 fantasy points per game. Those are DT6 numbers when you account for each team’s bye week.

Let’s take a look at my Week 15 picks keeping in mind that to be eligible, defenses must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. There are four teams that I like this week so hopefully fantasy owners can find at least one on their waiver wires. (If you still have the Pats from last week, just hold onto them. I like their matchup with the Bills.)

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It’s playoff time!

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 16 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

Welcome to an abbreviated version of the Waiver Wire Watch. It’s Week 16, and most fantasy teams have been eliminated or on cruise control, so instead of listing virtually every player available on the waiver wire, I’m just going to highlight a few players at each position that might be able to help fantasy teams in Week 16. As always, I’m going to limit my scope to those players available in at least 40% (or thereabout) of ESPN leagues. I’ll put the player’s percentage-owned next to their name.

Let’s start with the quarterback position, where I still find it amazing that Josh Freeman (69.8) is still available in 30% of leagues. Not only has he been very consistent this season, but he has a great matchup with the Seahawks in Week 16. I suspect he’ll be in my Top 12 when my rankings come out on Wednesday…Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.3) has the Patriots at home this week, and barring a snow storm, that’s shaping up to be a pretty good matchup. New England showed on Sunday night that its pass defense still leaves something to be desired…David Garrard (46.4) had a strong game against the Colts and has a terrific W16 matchup with the Redskins’ porous pass defense…Need a deep sleeper? Both Tim Tebow (4.0) and Rex Grossman (0.3) have nice matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, respectively. I wouldn’t trust either guy over a more established option, but if you’re desperate, you could do worse. These are some bad pass defenses we’re talking about.

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It’s draft day, 2009, and you’ve just arrived at your buddy Phil’s house for your league’s fantasy draft. Fat ass Tank is already there.

Tank: Where’s your guy?

You: Should be here any minute.

Tank: He’s solid?

You: Yeah, I guess. He’s my long-lost uncle. I met him at our family reunion last month. He said if I knew of any fantasy leagues to let him know.

Phil: I can’t believe Ken’s wife forbade him to play the day before the draft. She forbade him.

Tank: Ridiculous.

There’s a knock on the door.

Tank: That’s your guy?

Phil answers the door. It’s your Uncle Nostradamus.

Nostradamus: What up, playas?

Tank: Nice beard.

Phil: Thanks for filling in last minute.

Nostradamus: No worries. Where is everyone?

Tank: We’ve got them on speakerphone.

Nostradamus: Sweet. Let’s do this. What’s my pick?

Phil: Well, Ken – the man with no testicles — had the #1 overall pick, so you get to go first. You know how to play?

Nostradamus: Is this a PPR league?

Phil: Yep. 18 rounds. You’re up.

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Tom Brady & Randy Moss
This duo came through in a big way in Week 16. Brady threw for 267 yards and four TD while Moss had 4-45 and three TD. Moss also came up pretty big in Week 15 (5-70-1), but anyone that had Brady going that week probably wasn’t playing in the title game in Week 16. (He only threw for 115 yards and a TD against the Bills.)

Matt Ryan & Roddy White
I own a few leagues with a buddy of mine and we were in a quandary at QB. We had Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel on our roster, but neither guy was very appealing this week. Cutler seems to have given up on the season and Cassel had a bad matchup against a good Bengals defense. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman were on the waiver wire and we ended up going with Freeman because he had been quite solid since taking over as the starter in Tampa. We figured that a matchup with the Saints would offer plenty of opportunity to throw. Besides, Ryan was facing the Bills who had been great against opposing QBs in recent weeks. Well, we should have gone with Matty Ice. He threw for 250 yards and three TD, and we would have won had we plugged him in. His favorite target, Roddy White, also rewarded owners that stuck with him after he had averaged 3-37 over the last two weeks. He posted 8-139-2 against the Bills, and will be the difference in more than a few championship games this week.

Todd Heap
All Heap did the last two weeks was catch seven balls for 93 yards and four TD. That’s right — four TD. Funny story: In my auction league, when Owen Daniels went down midseason and I unwisely gambled all of my bidding bucks on Chris Cooley’s failed comeback attempt, I ended up trading away Laurence Maroney for Todd Heap, and I didn’t start him in Week 15 or Week 16. What can I say? The guy averaged 2.5-28-0.0 the previous four weeks. Who knew he’d catch four TD in the next two games? Anyone forced to start him got a nice surprise in the fantasy playoffs.

Jonathan Stewart
It must have been a tough week to have DeAngelo Williams and not have Stewart as a backup. He had 28 carries for 206 yards and a TD against a Giants team that desperately needed a win. That’s impressive. In Week 15, he had 109 yards and a score against the Vikings, who have one of the best rush defenses in the league. Let this be a lesson to those owners who draft Williams next season — you better get Stewart as insurance.

Donovan McNabb & Brent Celek
The Eagles almost lost the game, but McNabb posted a great line that probably won a few fantasy championships this week. He had 322 yards, three TD and also ran for 29 yards. As a result, Celek was a difference-maker at TE this week. He went for 4-121-1, catching a 47-yard pass from McNabb in the second quarter.

Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark & Joseph Addai
We were all ready to bench our Indy studs in Week 16, figuring that they’d play maybe a half of football before leaving the game. But then Manning tells Rachel Nichols this morning that he thinks he would play a full game if it stayed competitive. Suddenly, fantasy owners were scrambling to get these Colts back in the lineup. Sure enough, midway through the third with the game still very competitive, Indy pulled its starters. Manning finished with 192 yards and zero TD, Addai with 40 yards and a TD, Clark with 4-57 and Wayne with 3-33. Fantasy owners with Addai or Clark in their starting lineups probably got by with their limited output, but those that had Manning or Wayne found themselves behind the eight ball.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

It’s championship week in most fantasy football leagues, so it’s not a good time to get cute. There’s a saying — dance with the guy that brought you. In other words, don’t bench a stud unless you have to.

On the subject of the Colts…

At this point, only Indianapolis appears to be ready to rest its players, so I’d expect Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon to play a half of football. Moreover, the Jets are a pretty bad matchup, so it’s (relatively) safe to bench those Colts. It’s unfortunate that fantasy owners are forced to bench these players in such a crucial week, but this is a great argument for a fantasy league to end its playoffs in Week 15.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Philip Rivers (TEN) and Tom Brady (JAX) are good fantasy QBs with good matchups, so start ‘em..Matt Schaub has a very nice matchup against a Dolphins defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass…In a pinch? Alex Smith has the Lions this week. Detroit has given up an average of 268 yards and 2.1 TD through the air this season…David Garrard has a pretty good matchup with a Patriots defense that has really struggled to stop the pass of late.

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The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 24 PA (0) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points
#2 Seahawks: 24 PA (0) + 1 INT = 1 fp
#3 Texans: 13 PA (4) + 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 9 fp

The Cardinals were a big disappointment given their matchup with the Lions and the Seahawks were a no-show against the Bucs at home. At least Houston had a nice day.

On the season, my top pick is averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game, my #2 pick is averaging 9.5 fp and my #3 pick is averaging 6.9. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.6 fp, which equates to DT3 numbers. Not bad.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. (Note: If you already have the Cards, hold onto them this week — they have a great matchup against the Rams.)

Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. DET)
The 49ers are averaging 13.3 fp at home this season, and 15.3 over the last three (versus CHI, JAX and ARI). They should make mincemeat of the Lions.

Pick #2: Indianapolis Colts (vs. NYJ)
The Colts have averaged 7.8 points per game over the last four weeks and with turnover-happy Mark Sanchez coming to town, they should have a nice day.

Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS)
Dallas is playing pretty good defense of late. They have gone for 8+ in six of their last nine games, and the Redskins are a pretty nice matchup.

Bonus pick: Falcons (vs. Bills)

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Be sure to check out Week 15’s Fantasy Fallout and our Waiver Wire Watch for Week 16. Still have questions? Fire away, but be sure to tell me about your league’s roster requirements and whether or not you’re in a PPR league.