Ah, Week 14…

In most leagues, this is the week where all the teams good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to get a bye duke it out in the first round of the playoffs. There’s generally no room for error due to the quality of the competition so every surprise performance and every disappointing outing is magnified.

Here’s a look at a few heroes and a few goats from Sunday’s action.

HEROES

Darren McFadden
In a must win game? How does 209 total yards and three TDs suit you? DMC went absolutely nuts against Jacksonville, scoring on a 67-yard pass, and runs of 51- and 36-yards. And believe it or not, the Jags were playing well enough of late for this to be considered a bad matchup. With the Broncos and Colts on deck at home over the next two weeks, McFadden is primed for a BIG finish.

Tom Brady
Deion Branch
Last week, I had a 30-point lead with just Brady to go against a pretty good Jets defense and lost because Brady scored 32. This week, in another league, I figured Brady might have a mediocre game in wintry Chicago conditions in another bad matchup. Yeah…no…369 yards, two TDs. Nothing can stop Brady right now, not even a blizzard. As for Branch, do you think he’s happy being out of Seattle. The guy is on fire right now — he has four TDs in the last three weeks.

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Anthony Stalter (under TheScoresReport) and I (under fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 3. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…

Well, the good news is that I’m still the top-ranked fantasy expert at FantasyPros, but the bad news is Week 13 wasn’t my best (#29 overall), and David Dodds has gained on me for two straight weeks. I still have a lead, but it’s getting smaller. Time to buckle down.

For the 9th week in a row, John Paulsen (The Scores Report) checks in as the #1 overall expert. While week 13 wasn’t Paulsen’s best showing (29th overall), his success throughout the course of the season has put him in the enviable position of having a cushion to work with as we head into the final 3 weeks of the competition. With that being said, it’s still too early for Paulsen to carve out space on his mantle (do people still have mantles?) for the first place trophy. That’s because David Dodds (FootballGuys) is coming on strong and he has cut into Paulsen’s lead for the 2nd week in a row. We should be in for an exciting conclusion to the competition if the trend continues.

I’d like to note that I was #7 last week in both DT and K rankings, which don’t count towards my overall score…so there’s that.

Below you’ll find my first stab at the Week 14 rankings. Be sure to check back as Sunday approaches because they’ll be updated as the news trickles in.

If the above widget isn’t working, there are text rankings below (but be warned, they aren’t as easily updated).

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What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16″ shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use these tables?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.

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The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 13 picks fared:

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It’s playoff time!

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 14 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (34.0)
He had a brutal first half in a so-so matchup, but the Vikings’ defense plays pretty tough at home. Over the next three weeks he has CLE, @MIA and NE. That W16 matchup against the Patriots is tasty.

Jon Kitna (14.1)
It wasn’t a great matchup against Indy, but Kitna fared pretty well. He has PHI, WAS and @ARI over the next three weeks, so even without Dez Bryant, he should still be able to post solid numbers down the stretch. Romo’s pending return could be a headache, but I don’t think the Cowboys are going to rush him back.

David Garrard (42.1)
The Jags are running the ball more and more and it’s eating into Garrard’s numbers, though he has rushed for a TD in each of the last two weeks. He’s startable in W14 (OAK) and W16 (WAS).

Sam Bradford (36.3)
Do I see a chink in the rookie’s armor? After a string of five consecutive games with at least 251 yards passing or two TDs, Bradford had his first bad game since Week 5…against the Cardinals no less. I’m not terribly optimistic about his chances against a relatively tough Saints pass defense.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
His matchups down the stretch (@SF, ATL, @TB) are pretty favorable, but with Mike Williams 1.0 out, Hasselbeck is running out of options, and fast. Hopefully, Ben Obomanu can shake off that lacerated hand and make it back by Sunday.

Troy Smith (4.4)
After hooking up with Vernon Davis for a long TD, Smith finished with decent numbers on the day. He has a nice matchup this week against the Seahawks, but should be avoided after that (@SD, @STL).

Jason Campbell (6.2)
It’s not always pretty, but Campbell is capable of putting up good fantasy numbers when the stars align. He has two good matchups coming up (@JAX, DEN) before a date with the Colts in W16.

Chad Henne (47.7)
He had three picks against the Browns. What is the Jets’ defense going to do to him?

Drew Stanton (0.3)
He was decent in a tough matchup with the Bears. I wouldn’t want to use him against the Packers this week, but his W15 matchup with an Aqib Talib-less Bucs secondary isn’t a bad matchup.

Kerry Collins (1.2)
Maybe dreadful is too strong of a word to describe Collins’ performance against a sketchy Jags’ pass defense. 169 yards and two TDs…no it’s not too strong. He has the Colts this week (so-so) and the Texans in W15 (great matchup) before traveling to KC.

Jake Delhomme (1.1)
Congratulations to Jake Delhomme, who threw a TD without throwing an interception for the first time this season. Assuming Colt McCoy can’t make it back, he has a decent matchup with the Bills this week.

Jimmy Clausen (1.0)
Very good matchup, but he hasn’t thrown a TD pass since W4, so why are you reading this?

Tarvaris Jackson (0.7)
He threw two TDs and three picks against the Bills. The Vikings would be better off giving him some reps to see where he’s at heading into next season, but they appear to want Favre back under center if he’s healthy. We’ll see.

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- Somehow, Drew Brees makes 296 yards and three TDs seem pedestrian.

- Aaron Rodgers (180 yards) picked a bad time to have his first zero TD game of the season.

- The Bills have a good pass defense, but Matt Cassel’s performance (224 yards, 4 INT) was downright pitiful.

- Carson Palmer (94 yards, TD) and the Bengals’ passing game was surprisingly unproductive against the Vikings’ sketchy pass defense. Minnesota did get a boost from Antonie Winfield, who returned from a six-week absence.

- Tony Romo (249 yards, 2 TD) stayed hot. It has helped that the Cowboys have trailed in the second half, because he’s racking up some stats in garbage time.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

- Pierre Thomas (19 touches, 100 yards) got even more work with Mike Bell out, but Reggie Bush (12 touches, 79 yards, 2 TD) vultured a couple of pass TDs.

- Kevin Smith (23 touches, 88 yards) suffered a “gruesome” knee injury and Rotoworld is saying that his season is “unquestionably over.”

- Ray Rice (13 carries, 166 yards, TD) and Willis McGahee (12 carries, 76 yards, 2 TD) destroyed the Lions rush defense. Rice also went for 4-53 in the passing game.

- Ryan Grant (20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TD) had a very nice day running the ball. He started the scoring with a 62-yard TD run. He wasn’t even touched on the play.

- Julius Jones (11 touches, 43 yards) and Justin Forsett (13 touches, 73 yards) pretty much split the work out of the Seattle backfield. Forsett is more productive, but Jones continues to start.

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- Calvin Johnson (4-37) had a rough game against a good Ravens defense, though he’s a lot better off when Matt Stafford is under center.

- With Devin Hester out, Johnny Knox (5-83-1) and Devin Aromashodu (8-76-1) both had nice days.

- Andre Johnson (11-193-2) went nuts against a bad Seattle pass defense.

- You better hope you weren’t playing Brandon Marshall (21-200-2) in a PPR league. (I did.) Marshall set the record for most catches in a game. Eddie Royal had one catch for three yards.

- Davone Bess (3-22) no longer looks like a starting caliber fantasy wideout. Greg Camarillo (7-110) got most of the work.

- Mike Sims-Walker (1-6) was a surprise start (calf), but he was terribly unproductive.

- Way to go, Randy Moss (1-16). Wes Welker (10-105) is far more dependable.

- After a couple of semi-quiet weeks, Vincent Jackson (7-120) went off against the Cowboys.

Check back in a few minutes for the RB and QB positions.