Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: Where several big names come up small
Posted by John Paulsen (12/06/2010 @ 6:00 am)
I suspect that Week 13 will go down as one of the most frustrating weeks of the season. Not only did several so-called studs put up goat-like numbers, but many leagues were in the final week of their regular seasons so there were more than a few owners in must-win situations. Let’s hope that they didn’t have one (or more) of the guys on this list:
Dwayne Bowe (0-0)
78 points. That was the total of the first matchup between these two teams and, on Sunday, they combined for a measly 16 points. The biggest goat of the game was Bowe, who somehow failed to register a catch against one of the worst pass defenses in the league after posting an average of 7.0-105-1.9 over his last seven games. That is a mind-boggling drop in production for a guy who was the top fantasy wideout over the last two months.
Brandon Lloyd (2-31)
Kyle Orton (117 yards, 0 TD)
Last time he faced the Chiefs, Lloyd caught six passes for 90 yards and two TDs. In his last four games he racked up 413 yards and six TDs. Lloyd reminded the fantasy community why he was one of the most frustrating fantasy players of the mid-00s. Meanwhile, Orton looked dreadful, missing on 19 of his 28 pass attempts and failing to find the endzone. Thanks for that, Kyle.
Chris Johnson (67 total yards, 0 TD)
Over the first 10 weeks, Johnson averaged 107 total yards and 0.9 TDs. We wrote off last week’s miserable outing against the Texans due to the Titans’ problems at QB, but with Kerry Collins back under center, Johnson would get back to normal, right? WRONG. Chris Johnson looked more like Larry Johnson circa 2009. This was not what owners were expecting when they drafted him #1 overall this summer.
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2010 Fantasy Football: Week 13 Rankings
Posted by John Paulsen (12/01/2010 @ 3:07 pm)
I’m pleased to report that with a #5 finish in Week 12, I am still holding on to the #1 overall spot in FantasyPros’ accuracy contest.
The beat goes on for John Paulsen (The Scores Report) as he continues to hold down the #1 spot as the most accurate expert in our contest. Paulsen has been the overall leader for so long that the Lions, Titans and Dolphins have each gone through 3 starting QBs since he last trailed someone else in the standings. In other words, this makes it 8 consecutive weeks at #1. In week 12, Paulsen had another strong showing (#5 overall), marking the fourth time this season he has finished in the top 5 of the weekly standings. And for the season, Paulsen continues to shine at each of the positions that factor into our overall scoring: RB (#2), WR (#2), TE (#4), and QB (#9).
Four more weeks to go!
Below is my first stab at Week 13′s rankings. Be sure to check back because they will definitely change throughout the week as news trickles in.
Updated Sunday, December 5.
If you can’t see the FantasyPros widget (they’ve been having heavy traffic issues leading up to kickoff the last couple of weeks), then look below for text rankings. Just a warning though — I can’t update these as easily as the widget.
Quarterbacks
1. Michael Vick (PHI vs. HOU)
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. SF)
3. Peyton Manning (IND vs. DAL)
4. Matt Cassel (KC vs. DEN)
5. Drew Brees (NO @ CIN)
6. Philip Rivers (SD vs. OAK)
7. Kyle Orton (DEN @ KC)
8. Tom Brady (NE vs. NYJ)
9. Jay Cutler (CHI @ DET)
10. Eli Manning (NYG vs. WAS)
11. Sam Bradford (STL @ ARI)
12. Mark Sanchez (NYJ @ NE)
13. Josh Freeman (TB vs. ATL)
14. Matt Ryan (ATL @ TB)
15. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF @ MIN)
16. Matt Schaub (HOU @ PHI)
17. Jon Kitna (DAL @ IND)
18. Joe Flacco (BAL vs. PIT)
19. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT @ BAL)
20. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA vs. CAR)
21. David Garrard (JAC @ TEN)
22. Chad Henne (MIA vs. CLE)
23. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. NO)
24. Donovan McNabb (WAS @ NYG)
25. Kerry Collins (TEN vs. JAC)
26. Brett Favre (MIN vs. BUF)
27. Troy Smith (SF @ GB)
28. Jake Delhomme (CLE @ MIA)
29. Derek Anderson (ARI vs. STL)
30. Jason Campbell (OAK @ SD)
31. Drew Stanton (DET vs. CHI)
32. Jimmy Clausen (CAR @ SEA)
Running Backs
1. Arian Foster (HOU @ PHI)
2. Peyton Hillis (CLE @ MIA)
3. Jamaal Charles (KC vs. DEN)
4. Chris Johnson (TEN vs. JAC)
5. Adrian Peterson (MIN vs. BUF)
6. Michael Turner (ATL @ TB)
7. Steven Jackson (STL @ ARI)
8. LeSean McCoy (PHI vs. HOU)
9. Matt Forte (CHI @ DET)
10. Knowshon Moreno (DEN @ KC)
11. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC @ TEN)
12. Mike Tolbert (SD vs. OAK)
13. Ray Rice (BAL vs. PIT)
14. Felix Jones (DAL @ IND)
15. Fred Jackson (BUF @ MIN)
16. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT @ BAL)
17. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG vs. WAS)
18. Cedric Benson (CIN vs. NO)
19. Darren McFadden (OAK @ SD)
20. Donald Brown (IND vs. DAL)
21. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ @ NE)
22. Maurice Morris (DET vs. CHI)
23. Thomas Jones (KC vs. DEN)
24. Jonathan Stewart (CAR @ SEA)
25. Christopher Ivory (NO @ CIN)
26. Brian Westbrook (SF @ GB)
27. Mike Goodson (CAR @ SEA)
28. LeGarrette Blount (TB vs. ATL)
29. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE vs. NYJ)
30. Brandon Jackson (GB vs. SF)
31. Brandon Jacobs (NYG vs. WAS)
32. Ronnie Brown (MIA vs. CLE)
33. Marshawn Lynch (SEA vs. CAR)
34. Toby Gerhart (MIN vs. BUF)
35. Shonn Greene (NYJ @ NE)
36. Danny Woodhead (NE vs. NYJ)
37. Tashard Choice (DAL @ IND)
38. Anthony Dixon (SF @ GB)
39. Ricky Williams (MIA vs. CLE)
40. Chris “Beanie” Wells (ARI vs. STL)
41. Justin Forsett (SEA vs. CAR)
42. Keiland Williams (WAS @ NYG)
43. Aaron Brown (DET vs. CHI)
44. Ryan Mathews (SD vs. OAK)
45. James Davis (WAS @ NYG)
46. Darren Sproles (SD vs. OAK)
47. Reggie Bush (NO @ CIN)
48. Mike Hart (IND vs. DAL)
49. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (TB vs. ATL)
50. Tim Hightower (ARI vs. STL)
Wide Receivers
1. Dwayne Bowe (KC vs. DEN)
2. Roddy White (ATL @ TB)
3. Brandon Lloyd (DEN @ KC)
4. Andre Johnson (HOU @ PHI)
5. DeSean Jackson (PHI vs. HOU)
6. Reggie Wayne (IND vs. DAL)
7. Greg Jennings (GB vs. SF)
8. Santonio Holmes (NYJ @ NE)
9. Mario Manningham (NYG vs. WAS)
10. Jeremy Maclin (PHI vs. HOU)
11. Mike Williams (TB vs. ATL)
12. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI vs. STL)
13. Calvin Johnson (DET vs. CHI)
14. Steve Johnson (BUF @ MIN)
15. Marques Colston (NO @ CIN)
16. Terrell Owens (CIN vs. NO)
17. Wes Welker (NE vs. NYJ)
18. Johnny Knox (CHI @ DET)
19. Pierre Garcon (IND vs. DAL)
20. Mike Wallace (PIT @ BAL)
21. Braylon Edwards (NYJ @ NE)
22. Chad Ochocinco (CIN vs. NO)
23. Mike Thomas (JAC @ TEN)
24. Sidney Rice (MIN vs. BUF)
25. Santana Moss (WAS @ NYG)
26. Dez Bryant (DAL @ IND)
27. Miles Austin (DAL @ IND)
28. Percy Harvin (MIN vs. BUF)
29. Anquan Boldin (BAL vs. PIT)
30. Davone Bess (MIA vs. CLE)
31. Derrick Mason (BAL vs. PIT)
32. Danny Amendola (STL @ ARI)
33. Deion Branch (NE vs. NYJ)
34. Blair White (IND vs. DAL)
35. Hines Ward (PIT @ BAL)
36. Ben Obomanu (SEA vs. CAR)
37. Danario Alexander (STL @ ARI)
38. Michael Crabtree (SF @ GB)
39. Steve Breaston (ARI vs. STL)
40. Brian Hartline (MIA vs. CLE)
41. Mike Williams (SEA vs. CAR)
42. Eddie Royal (DEN @ KC)
43. Jacoby Ford (OAK @ SD)
44. Randy Moss (TEN vs. JAC)
45. Brandon Marshall (MIA vs. CLE)
46. Nate Burleson (DET vs. CHI)
47. Malcom Floyd (SD vs. OAK)
48. Nate Washington (TEN vs. JAC)
49. Lance Moore (NO @ CIN)
50. Jabar Gaffney (DEN @ KC)
51. Lee Evans (BUF @ MIN)
52. Steve Smith (CAR @ SEA)
53. James Jones (GB vs. SF)
54. Jordan Shipley (CIN vs. NO)
55. Jason Avant (PHI vs. HOU)
56. Robert Meachem (NO @ CIN)
57. Seyi Ajirotutu (SD vs. OAK)
58. Derek Hagan (NYG vs. WAS)
59. Earl Bennett (CHI @ DET)
60. Devin Hester (CHI @ DET)
Tight Ends
1. Jacob Tamme (IND vs. DAL)
2. Jason Witten (DAL @ IND)
3. Antonio Gates (SD vs. OAK)
4. Tony Gonzalez (ATL @ TB)
5. Marcedes Lewis (JAC @ TEN)
6. Dustin Keller (NYJ @ NE)
7. Vernon Davis (SF @ GB)
8. Kellen Winslow (TB vs. ATL)
9. Kevin Boss (NYG vs. WAS)
10. Todd Heap (BAL vs. PIT)
11. Rob Gronkowski (NE vs. NYJ)
12. Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN vs. BUF)
13. Chris Cooley (WAS @ NYG)
14. Brandon Pettigrew (DET vs. CHI)
15. Brent Celek (PHI vs. HOU)
16. Greg Olsen (CHI @ DET)
17. Benjamin Watson (CLE @ MIA)
18. Joel Dreessen (HOU @ PHI)
19. Tony Moeaki (KC vs. DEN)
20. Jermaine Gresham (CIN vs. NO)
21. Jimmy Graham (NO @ CIN)
22. Zach Miller (OAK @ SD)
23. Anthony Fasano (MIA vs. CLE)
24. Aaron Hernandez (NE vs. NYJ)
25. Heath Miller (PIT @ BAL)
Kickers
1. David Akers (PHI vs. HOU)
2. Adam Vinatieri (IND vs. DAL)
3. Mason Crosby (GB vs. SF)
4. Josh Brown (STL @ ARI)
5. Dan Carpenter (MIA vs. CLE)
6. Nate Kaeding (SD vs. OAK)
7. Nick Folk (NYJ @ NE)
8. Garrett Hartley (NO @ CIN)
9. Matt Bryant (ATL @ TB)
10. Olindo Mare (SEA vs. CAR)
11. Josh Scobee (JAC @ TEN)
12. Ryan Longwell (MIN vs. BUF)
13. Rob Bironas (TEN vs. JAC)
14. Sebastian Janikowski (OAK @ SD)
15. Robbie Gould (CHI @ DET)
16. Ryan Succop (KC vs. DEN)
17. Shaun Suisham (PIT @ BAL)
18. Lawrence Tynes (NYG vs. WAS)
19. Matt Prater (DEN @ KC)
20. Billy Cundiff (BAL vs. PIT)
Defense
1. Green Bay Packers (GB vs. SF)
2. Chicago Bears (CHI @ DET)
3. Seattle Seahawks (SEA vs. CAR)
4. New York Giants (NYG vs. WAS)
5. San Diego Chargers (SD vs. OAK)
6. New Orleans Saints (NO @ CIN)
7. Tennessee Titans (TEN vs. JAC)
8. St. Louis Rams (STL @ ARI)
9. Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. PIT)
10. Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. BUF)
11. Miami Dolphins (MIA vs. CLE)
12. Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. DAL)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT @ BAL)
14. Detroit Lions (DET vs. CHI)
15. New York Jets (NYJ @ NE)
16. Philadelphia Eagles (PHI vs. HOU)
17. Washington Redskins (WAS @ NYG)
18. Cleveland Browns (CLE @ MIA)
19. Arizona Cardinals (ARI vs. STL)
20. Atlanta Falcons (ATL @ TB)
Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 13
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2010 @ 6:50 pm)
What am I looking at?
Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16″ shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.
It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.
How do I use these tables?
Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.
Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.
Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.
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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 13
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2010 @ 1:50 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 12 picks fared:
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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 13
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2010 @ 11:50 am)

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?
I’m here to help.
After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.
If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 13 rankings.
And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.
Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.
Waiver Wire Watch, Week 13: Where we have to talk Frank Gore owners off the ledge
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2010 @ 6:00 am)
It’s Week 13, which means we’re in crunch time in most fantasy leagues. If your roster is a mess, there’s not much we can do at this point, but if you need a win this week to make the postseason, there may be a player or two who can help.
I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (56.6)
If you’re looking for a solid QB to run out there every week the rest of the way, Freeman is your guy. He has two solid matchups (ATL, DET) and two good matchups (WAS, SEA) the rest of the way, so he should be able to give you borderline QB1 numbers over the final month of the fantasy season. His somewhat Week 12 outing against the Ravens marked only the second time all season that he didn’t throw for at least 212 yards or toss two TDs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.4)
The Bills have that Bad News Bears feel about them. I find myself rooting for Buffalo every week. He finished with decent numbers (265 yards, TD, INT) in a terrible matchup, and would have had 300+ and 2 TDs if not for Stevie Johnson’s dropped TD in overtime. The matchup this week isn’t great (@MIN), but Fitzy is still a solid start. I love him in W14 and W16 against the Browns and Patriots, respectively.
Jon Kitna (13.9)
I wouldn’t want to start him this week against an angry Colts’ defense, but his W15 (WAS) and W16 (@ARI) matchups are great, and in W14 he faces an Eagles defense that just got torched by Jay Cutler.
Matt Cassel (49.5)
He may not be the greatest QB in the world, but he’s taking full advantage of Dwayne Bowe’s ascendancy to stud status, tossing 12 TDs in the last four games. With Denver’s lowly pass defense up next, he’s a great pickup this week, though things get tougher in W14 against the Chargers.
Sam Bradford (30.6)
I watched quite a bit of the STL/DEN game, and Bradford is cool, calm and collected, especially for a rookie. I’m waiting for one of those nightmare games, but it just hasn’t come. His last ‘bad’ game was in Week 5 against the Lions (215 yards, 2 INTs), but other than that, he has thrown at least one TD in every game and has tossed five TDs in the last two weeks. He has a great matchup with ARI this week and is startable the rest of the way outside of a W14 date with the Saints.
David Garrard (47.3)
It wasn’t pretty through the air in a terrible matchup, but Garrard had a brilliant TD run to save an otherwise forgettable fantasy day. The Titans aren’t a great matchup, so Garrard is just a mediocre start this week. He has nice matchups in W14 (OAK) and W16 (WAS), however.
Chad Henne (47.7)
Henne had a nice outing (307 yards, 2 TDs, INT) in a good matchup against the Raiders, and should find more success through the air this week against the Browns. In fact, the rest of his schedule is pretty nice, outside of a W14 road trip to face the Jets.
Matt Hasselbeck (14.1)
I don’t like his matchup this week (CAR), but otherwise, Hasselbeck has decent matchups to close the season.
Jason Campbell (6.6)
It looks like Bruce Gradkowski is out again, so Campbell should take over. His matchup this week is poor, but things ease up in W14 (@JAX) and W15 (DEN).
Derek Anderson (3.7)
Troy Smith (4.7)
Jake Delhomme (1.2)
Jimmy Clausen (0.9)
If you are in a situation where you’re considering picking up any of these guys, I feel for you. I really do.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 13, 2010 NFL Week 13, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 13, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: QBs
Posted by John Paulsen (12/07/2009 @ 8:00 am)

- The Carolina defense did a number on Josh Freeman (321 yards, 5 INTs) and are likely to carry a few fantasy teams to victory this week.
- Matt Moore (161 yards, INT) was not impressive in his first start, but he only turned the ball over once, and that’s all the Panthers needed on Sunday.
- Jay Cutler (143 yards, TD) has a disappointing day given his nice matchup. Bears fans are just happy he got the win.
- The Denver defense seems to have its swagger back. Matt Cassel (84 yards, 2 INT) struggled, as did the entire KC offense.
- Tom Brady (352 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT) didn’t seem too bothered by an injured finger, but he did throw the game-ending interception.
- Bruce Gradkowski (308 yards, 3 TD) had a HUGE day against the Steelers.
- Ben Roethlisberger (278 yards, 2 TD, INT) bounced back from a Week 12 absence with a big day against a pretty good Raider secondary.
- It wasn’t exactly pretty, but Drew Brees (419 yards, 2 TD, INT) posted another nice fantasy day.
- Jason Campbell (367 yards, 3 TD, INT) had a big day against New Orleans, but threw a costly interception in overtime that led to the Saints’ game-winning field goal.
- Alex Smith (310 yards, 2 TD) continues to play well down the stretch. With Arizona in Week 14 and Detroit in Week 16, he is definitely startable in the fantasy playoffs.
- Tony Romo (392 yards, 3 TD) had a big day in the Cowboys’ loss against the Giants.
Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: RBs
Posted by John Paulsen (12/07/2009 @ 7:40 am)
- Jerious Norwood (13 touches, 42 yards) and Jason Snelling (12 touches, 52 yards) basically split the work with Michael Turner out.
- LeSean McCoy (9 touches, 26 yards) was a big disappointment given his good matchup with the Falcons defense.
- Jonathan Stewart (26 carries, 120 yards, TD) was strong filling in for the injured DeAngelo Williams.
- Kevin Smith (18 touches, 104 yards, TD) ended up having a nice day against a good Bengals defense.
- Cedric Benson (36 carries, 110) yards is the clear RB1 in Cincy. Larry Johnson (2 carries, 4 yards) was not involved in the offense.
- Earth to Maurice Jones-Drew (24 carries, 76 yards): Where are you?
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Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: WRs
Posted by John Paulsen (12/07/2009 @ 7:20 am)
- Roddy White (9-104-1) caught his TD on a deflected pass intended for Tony Gonzalez.
- Steve Smith 1.0 (3-78) was really quiet until he caught a 66-yard bomb in the fourth quarter. Generally speaking, he’s not a great play right now.
- Antonio Bryant (5-116) looks like he’s back. He made a couple of very nice catches this week.
- Earl Bennett (2-74-1) had a nice game and could be a nice pickup if Devin Hester’s (1-48) injury keeps him out.
- Donnie Avery (3-30, 1 rush for 15 yards) should have done more with a nice matchup. He’s back to being a shaky start after a nice run of games.
- Chad Ochocinco (9-137-1) got back on track. The Lions will do that for a guy.
- It was Pierre Garcon (6-136), not Reggie Wayne (4-48), who led the Colts in receiving.
- Mike Sims-Walker (1-12) had a miserable day against the Texans. He only has 5-58 over the last two weeks.
- Chris Chambers (2-11) came into Week 13 very hot (17-319-3 over his last four games), but Champ Bailey and Co. shut him down.
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Fantasy Fallout, Week 13: TEs
Posted by John Paulsen (12/07/2009 @ 7:00 am)
- One word for Greg Olsen (2-1): Ugh.
- Neither Detroit TE (Will Heller, Casey Fitzsimmons) did much in place of Brandon Pettigrew.
- Dallas Clark (3-25) had a bad, bad day by his standards.
- Bo Scaife (5-56-1) has caught 14 passes over the last three weeks and is starter-quality in PPR leagues.
- Anthony Fasano (5-67) has 10-141 over the last two weeks and should be a much bigger part of the offense down the stretch. He’s worth a look in PPR leagues and is always dangerous around the goal line.
- Zach Miller (4-43) should be back on rosters now that he actually has a QB who can deliver the ball somewhat accurately. He has 14 catches over the last three weeks.
- Fred Davis (5-53-1) has 15 receptions in the last four weeks and seems to be a favorite target of Jason Cambpell.
- Antonio Gates (8-167) has been very hot of late. He now has 30 catches in the last five games.
- Jason Witten (14-156) finally had a huge day. He has been steady this season, but this is the first time that he has caught more than nine passes and only the second time that he broke 100 yards receiving.
Be sure to check back in a bit for the WR, RB and QB positions.
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