Fantasy Fallout, Week 12: Where that noise you hear is the sound of fantasy owners tripping over each other to pick up Toby Gerhart
Posted by John Paulsen (11/29/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Sorry for the long title, but I like to use the “that noise you hear…” intro whenever I can. Clearly the biggest fantasy news from the early games is Adrian Peterson‘s ankle injury. He was on his way to a huge day (7 touches, 70 yards, TD) before the injury, but could not return. Toby Gerhart (24 touches, 81 yards, TD) did an adequate job of fillling in. With the Bills on tap in Week 13, Gerhart will be a hot pickup this week, and if AP’s sprain is of the “high” variety, he could miss the remainder of the fantasy season. Given the tasty matchup with the Redskins’ woeful secondary, Brett Favre (173 yards), Percy Harvin (5-32) and Sidney Rice (1-20) were big disappointments this week. For Washington, it looks like Mike Shanahan is up to his old tricks. After carrying the load the past few games, Keiland Williams (6 touches, 26 yards) got the start but took a backseat to James Davis (6 carries, 11 yards), who was equally ineffective.
Speaking of surprises, Carolina put up a better offensive effort than expected, thanks to Mike Goodson (22 touches, 131 yards, TD) who started ahead of Jonathan Stewart (12 carries, 98 yards), who ran the ball much better (8.2 ypc), but Goodson brings a lot of value in the passing game. This is shaping up as a timeshare the rest of the way.
The Bills gave the Steelers a run, thanks to a workman-like effort by Fred Jackson (17 touches, 163 yards, TD) who is approaching must-start territory. RBs have fared horribly against the Pittsburgh defense this season, but Jackson averaged 4.9 ypc and racked up 104 yards and a TD in the passing game. Steve Johnson (7-68, 15 target) is clearly Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s (265 yards, TD, INT) favorite receiver, but he dropped a 50-yard game-winning bomb in OT that would have given him some gaudy numbers. Keep him in your starting lineup despite the drop(s).
Read the rest of this entry »
Tweeting NFL Week 12
Posted by John Paulsen (11/28/2010 @ 12:58 pm)
Anthony Stalter (under @TheScoresReport) and I (under @fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 12. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…
2010 Fantasy Football: Week 12 Rankings
Posted by John Paulsen (11/24/2010 @ 1:40 pm)
I found out late last night that I once again remained on top of the FantasyPros Accuracy Rankings. I finished a strong #7 in Week 11 and extended my lead over the second- and third-place experts.
Five more weeks…can I hold on?
Below you’ll find my rankings for Week 12. Be sure to check back as the week wears on because I’ll be updating them as news trickles in.
Updated Sunday, Nov. 28.
If the FantasyPros rankings widget isn’t come through, click below to see the rankings in text format.
Read the rest of this entry »
Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 12
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2010 @ 7:15 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 11 picks fared:
Read the rest of this entry »
Strength of Schedule: Week 12
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2010 @ 6:15 pm)
What am I looking at?
Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16″ shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.
It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.
How do I use these tables?
Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting Fred Jackson and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if Jackson has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if Jackson just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with Jackson.
Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.
Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.
Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 12
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2010 @ 1:15 pm)

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?
I’m here to help.
After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.
If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 12 rankings.
And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.
Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.
Waiver Wire Watch, Week 12: Where Maurice Morris is fantasy relevant once again
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Shaun Hill (8.8)
In his last six full games, Hill has averaged 290 yards and 1.8 TDs, so why is he still available in 91% of ESPN leagues. He has a great matchup this week (NE) and the fantasy playoffs (@TB, @MIA) look pretty good too.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (32.4)
The Bengals weren’t a great matchup for Fitzy, but he shredded them to the tune of 316 yards and four TDs in a big comeback win. He has proven that he’s startable even in bad matchups, but Week 14 (CLE) and Week 16 (NE) look tasty, assuming the weather in Buffalo cooperates (and that’s a BIG assumption).
Josh Freeman (59.1)
Freeman has now thrown two TDs in each of his last three games, and has thrown for at least 212 yards or two TDs in nine of 10 games this season. In other words, he’s been really consistent, and with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule (@WAS, DET, SEA), he’s a nice guy to have on the roster.
Sam Bradford (28.4)
Bradford is posting the best rookie season of any QB since Matt Ryan. He had two more TDs (along with 233 yards) against the Falcons on Sunday, and has a couple of nice matchups (@DEN, @ARI) coming up. And while other QBs will be battling the elements, Bradford will be playing indoors during the entire fantasy playoffs (@NO, KC, SF).
Jon Kitna (11.7)
Kitna has posted back-to-back three-TD games in the last two weeks against a pair of pretty good pass defenses. The next two weeks (NO, @IND) are kind of tough, but Week 15 (WAS) and 16 (@ARI) are tantalizing, assuming Tony Romo is still sidelined.
Matt Cassel (43.8)
After a tremendous 469-yard, four-TD effort in Week 10, Cassel posted a solid 193 yards and two scores against the Cardinals. The schedule for the next two weeks is nice (@SEA, DEN) and he wouldn’t be a terrible start in Week 15.
David Garrard (53.3)
It wasn’t pretty, but Garrard mustered 254 yards and two scores against CLE, though he did turn the ball over four times. He has a terrible matchup this week (@NYG), but can be used in Week 14 (OAK) and Week 16 (WAS) as part of a QBBC.
Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
He posted good numbers (366 yards, TD) in a bad matchup, and other than a semi-tough matchup against the Panthers pass D in Week 13, his schedule is quite favorable down the stretch.
Bruce Gradkowski (0.9)
He replaced the ineffective Jason Campbell and is likely to be the starter going forward. He has nice matchups in Week 14 (@JAX) and 15 (DEN).
Tyler Thigpen (0.9)
Okay, he looked pretty awful against the Bears, but everyone is struggling against Chicago’s pass defense right now. With OAK, CLE, BUF and DET up in the next five weeks, Thigpen isn’t a bad guy to use in deeper leagues.
Derek Anderson (3.8)
He hasn’t been terrible lately, throwing for one TD in each of the last four games. Other than a Week 15 game in Carolina, the schedule looks pretty nice down the stretch.
Colt McCoy (4.2)
He has accounted for one TD (two pass, one rush) in each of the last three games, but other than a Week 14 trip to Buffalo, the schedule is pretty rough.
Brian St. Pierre (0.1)
Well, the schedule is pretty nice, so there’s that…
Rusty Smith (0.0)
He’s taking over for the Titans at the right time, with the Texans and Jags up the next two weeks. Throw in another date with Houston in Week 15, and Smith could post surprisingly decent numbers down the stretch.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 12, 2010 NFL Week 12, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 12, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 12: QBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2009 @ 9:00 am)
- Vince Young (387 yards, TD) continues to play well. He threw the game-winning TD in the fourth quarter to Kenny Britt.
- Josh Freeman (250 yards, 2 TD) has played well since taking over as the starter. He’s still a rookie, so he’s going to struggle against the better teams, but when he has a nice matchup he’s borderline startable.
- Matt Ryan (15 yards) left the game with a toe injury and was unable to return. Chris Redman (243 yards, 2 TD) played pretty well in his place.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (246 yards, TD, INT, rush TD) is playing well and showed some wheels on a 31-yard TD scamper in the second quarter.
- Jason Campbell (231 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, rush TD) had a big fantasy day against the Eagles.
- Matt Hasselbeck (102 yards) had a surprisingly quiet game against a pretty bad Rams secondary.
- Alex Smith (232 yards, 2 TD) had yet another solid fantasy outing. He has had at least two pass TD in four of his six starts this season.
- Brett Favre (392 yards, 3 TD) torched a bad Chicago secondary.
- Kurt Warner was a surprise scratch, and Matt Leinart (220 yards) was rather pedestrian in his place.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
Fantasy Fallout, Week 12: RBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2009 @ 8:40 am)
- Michael Turner (12 carries, 33 yards) probably should have sat out another week. He was largely ineffective and reinjured the ankle that kept him out last week.
- Fred Jackson (20 touches, 116 yards, 2 TD) dominated the touches in the BUF backfield. Marshawn Lynch (4 touches, 15 yards) was ineffective.
- Rock Cartwright (18 touches, 64 yards) got most of the work, but didn’t do much.
- LeSean McCoy (21 touches, 101 yards) got the lion’s share of the carries for the Eagles, but it was Eldra Buckley who got the goal line work.
- Julius Jones didn’t dress, and Justin Forsett (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD) took full advantage. He didn’t catch a pass, however.
- Steven Jackson (28 touches, 116 yards, TD) didn’t practice this week, but that didn’t stop him from having a nice fantasy day.
Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Fallout, Week 12: WRs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/30/2009 @ 8:20 am)
- Antonio Bryant (3-91-1) is starting to play like his old self. Josh Freeman looks pretty good, so feel free to use Bryant when he has a good matchup.
- Michael Jenkins (7-80) has posted 13-156 over the past two weeks and merits consideration in PPR leagues.
- Terrell Owens (5-96-1) seems to like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than Trent Edwards. Fitzpatrick says he is more willing to throw the ball downfield and let his wideouts make a play.
- Jason Avant (5-94) has posted 17-276-1 over the last three weeks and has filled the void left by Brian Westbrook in the passing game. DeSean Jackson (2-40-1) left the game with a head/neck injury.
- Donnie Avery (4-48-1) had a TD early, but was quiet for much of the day until the Rams went into catch up mode.
- Steve Smith (1-5) had a TD catch that was called back due to lack of control over the ball. He’s never going to be consistent with Jake Delhomme as his QB.
Read the rest of this entry »
|