Fantasy Fallout: Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/10/2008 @ 2:17 am)
Here’s everything you need to know (and a lot you don’t) from Week 10’s fantasy football action.
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Ryan (248 yards, 2 TD) continues to look wise beyond his years. It’s not often a rookie makes for a good fantasy quarterback, but Ryan can definitely be used in the right matchups…Joe Flacco (185 yards, 2 TD) had his fourth solid game in a row. He is averaging 201 yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last four games…Gus Frerotte (151 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT)…It was looking like Marc Bulger (65 yards, INT) was bouncing back from a rough start, but he couldn’t get anything going against a sketchy Jets defense, so I wouldn’t trust him in my starting lineup right now…Jake Delhomme (72 yards, TD, 4 INT) was brutal against an Oakland defense that is susceptible to big passing days…Ben Roethlisberger (284 yards, 3 INT) had a rough outing against a good Indy pass defense. I’d still use him next week against a shaky Chargers pass defense and then reassess.
RUNNING BACKS
Deuce McAllister was a disappointment in the running game (5 carries, 18 yards), but he managed to catch a pass for a TD…Kevin Smith (24 touches, 123 yards, TD) is clearly the top RB in Detroit. Rudi Johnson only saw two carries…I guess we can’t trust Chris Mortensen. He said before the game that Ray Rice (9 touches, 19 yards) was going to see most of the carries, but it was Willis McGahee (26 touches, 121 yards, 2 TD) that was the feature back. I’d expect McGahee to get most of the work as long as he’s healthy…Just when it was looking like Ronnie Brown (14 touches, 66 yards, TD) was the clear RB1 in Miami, Ricky Williams (14 touches, 126 yards, TD) had a bigger day and just as many touches. Brown is still the better fantasy back, but Williams is a headache for Brown owners…Julius Jones (18 touches, 90 yards) looks to be RB1 in Seattle again, since Maurice Morris (2 touches, 17 yards) was barely involved…Ryan Grant (16 carries, 75 yards, TD) was impressive against a good Vikings rush defense. This bodes well for the stretch run…It looks like BenJarvus Green-Ellis (26 carries, 105 yards, TD) is going to get most of the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordaon out with injury. He’s worth a pickup if available if you are in need of RB help…DeAngelo Williams (20 touches, 143 yards, TD) was stellar with Jonathan Stewart (7 touches, 21 yards) limited with an injury…With Willie Parker sidelined, Mewelde Moore (30 touches, 105 yards, 2 TD) is a great start in all formats.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Lance Moore (6-76-1) has put up starter quality numbers in five of the last eight weeks and is still an integral part of the New Orleans offense even with Marques Colston (7-140) back…Both Greg Jennings (3-37) and Donald Driver (5-46) were held down against a surprisingly good Minnesota pass defense. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all day…Bernard Berrian was held without a catch by a very good pair of cornerbacks – Al Harris and Charles Woodson…Despite trailing big most of the game, Torry Holt (1-5) and Donnie Avery (2-29) couldn’t even get garbage stats against the Jets…Speaking of the Jets, they put up 47 points, but Jerricho Cotchery (1-18) and Laveranues Coles (1-14) had miserable fantasy outings…Expect Steve Smith (1-9) to bounce back in a big way against the Lions next week…Chris Chambers did not catch a ball in Week 10 and should not in fantasy lineups until he proves he is 100%…Plaxico Burress (1-17-1) caught a TD, but failed to convert any of his other five targets into a single catch. He and Eli Manning don’t seem like they are on the same page right now.
TIGHT ENDS
Jeremy Shockey (2-16) continues to struggle as he sprained his ankle late in the game. Billy Miller (5-65) seems to be getting more action anyway…Bo Scaife (10-78-1) is turning into a very solid option at TE. He is one of Kerry Collins’ favorite targets…After a big game last week, Owen Daniels (1-13) was very disappointing this week, especially considering that the Texans trailed most of the game. The Ravens defense will make a lot of players look bad…Kevin Boss (6-69-1) is now a starter quality tight end. He has caught a TD in each of the last three games and almost had a second TD tonight against the Eagles.
FREE AGENTS
And here’s some insight on a few players that may still be on your league’s waiver wire…
Michael Jenkins (6-72) is benefiting from Matt Ryan’s quick development and all the attention that is being paid to Roddy White (5-68-1). Jenkins is worth rostering for those owners in larger PPR leagues and White owners that want some insurance down the stretch…Justin Gage (4-47-1) bounced back from a bad Week 10 to post good numbers. He’s probably the best receiving option in Tennessee outside of Bo Scaife…Drew Stanton (94 yards, TD) was decent in relief of Daunte Culpepper, who was benched in the fourth quarter. It seems like Culpepper will get another shot next week, though I’m not sure why the Lions wouldn’t want to see what they have in Stanton…Todd Heap (5-58-2) had a huge game and will likely be a hot waiver wire pickup. Is this really a sign of things to come or just an aberration? I’m betting on the latter, but if you’re in need of TE help, Heap is worth a pickup…Ted Ginn (4-67-1) caught a bomb from Chad Pennington. He’s been fairly solid (18-328-1) over the last four weeks…Koren Robinson (5-38-1) has gone for 13-174-2 over the last three week…Dustin Keller (6-107-1) had a huge day, but he’s been up and down this season, so he’s nothing but a spot starter at this point…Justin Fargas (23 touches, 98 yards) didn’t score, but he’s the clear RB1 with Darren McFadden out…Tyler Thigpen (266 yards, 3 TD) is averaging 237 yards and 2.0 pass TD over the last three games. He also caught a TD pass last week. With Dwayne Bowe (6-72), Tony Gonzalez (10-113-2) and the improving Mark Bradley (9-81-1) to throw to, he’s a viable spot starter in most fantasy leagues.
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/06/2008 @ 6:59 pm)
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
LOVE ‘EM
QB: Brett Favre has a good matchup with a sketchy Rams defense and should be in starting lineups this week…There are a number of fantasy backup QBs that have nice matchups in Week 10. Chad Pennington faces a Seattle defense that has yielded 258 yards and 1.6 pass TD per game…Joe Flacco plays the Texans, who have given up an average of 203 yards and 1.5 pass TD this season…Tyler Thigpen has played pretty well the last two weeks, and he’ll have an opportunity to rack up some numbers against a Chargers defense that is dead last in the league against the pass…If you’re REALLY desperate, pick up Shaun Hill. He faces an Arizona defense that has allowed 2.0 pass TD per game.
RB: Be sure Maurice Jones-Drew is in your lineup as he faces a dreadful Lions rush defense that has yielded an average of 162 yards and 1.4 rush TD per game…Rumor has it that Willie Parker might miss Sunday’s matchup against the Colts, and if so, Mewelde Moore becomes a great start in his place. The Colts give up an average of 144 yards and 1.3 rush TD per game…Thomas Jones is looking like a strong start against the Rams, who are 29th in the league against the run…Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are still splitting time, but a great matchup against the league’s 30th-ranked Raider rush defense makes them both solid plays this week.
WR: Lee Evans should be in lineups this week against a New England defense that has given up 13 pass TD this season. It’s likely that Evans will be able to sneak deep for a score this week…Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are nice starts against the Rams, who have allowed 246 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game…Greg Camarillo (and to a lesser extent, Ted Ginn) is a good start against the Seahawks, who have struggled against the pass this season…Assuming he’s not suspended between now and Sunday, the suddenly productive Matt Jones is a nice start against a terrible Lions pass defense.
LEAVE ‘EM
QB: I wouldn’t trust Rex Grossman to quarterback my fantasy team this week. He faces the Titans, who have only allowed four pass TD all season…JaMarcus Russell has a bad matchup against a Carolina defense that has held teams to 195 yards passing and 0.9 pass TD per game. Based on the way the Oakland offense looked last week, I don’t expect them to have much success against the Panthers…Whether it’s Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich, the matchup with a Colts pass defense that has allowed just two pass TD all year is a bad one…Gus Frerotte (vs. GB) and Matt Cassel (vs. BUF) are startable in a pinch, but neither guy has a particularly good matchup.
RB: Ryan Grant has been running better of late, but don’t expect him to do much against a Vikings rush defense that is 2nd in the league in yards allowed…He’s still startable due to his prowess in the pass game, but Steve Slaton will find the running room hard to find against the Ravens, who have allowed a league-best 64 yards and 0.1 rush TD per game…I wouldn’t start any of the Oakland or Seattle running backs in their matchups against the Panthers and Dolphins, respectively.
WR: I wouldn’t start Rashied Davis or Devin Hester this week against a strong Titans pass defense…Marvin Harrison is still startable, but he’s probably going to struggle against the #1 pass defense in the league…Again, he’s startable, but lower your expectations for Plaxico Burress. He faces an Eagles defense that has been pretty stingy against the pass this season…Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are probably going to struggle some this week. I’d still feel okay starting them, but if you have a great option, go ahead and use it. The Colts have been terrific against the pass, and the uncertainty at QB makes either guy a risky play.
DTBWW
Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
I would pick up the Cardinals (vs. SF), the Panthers (vs. OAK), the Jets (vs. STL), the Jaguars (@ DET), and the Chargers (vs. KC) – in that order – before either of these picks. Those teams aren’t available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues, so they don’t qualify.
This week’s picks:
MIA (vs. SEA)
HOU (vs. BAL)
Last week’s picks:
Browns: 37 PA + 2 SK + 1 Ret TD = 8 fantasy points
Rams: 34 PA + 1 SK = 1 fantasy point
The return TD saved the Browns pick, but I really blew it with the Rams. I thought they’d play better at home against a turnover-prone Kurt Warner.
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Thursday Night Game
Posted by John Paulsen (11/05/2008 @ 5:47 pm)
Since Denver and Cleveland square off on Thursday night, I thought I’d throw out a few recommendations of some Browns and Broncos that you’ll want to start (or sit) this week. My regular “Love ‘Em/Leave ‘Em” post will go up Friday morning as usual.
LOVE ‘EM
Jamal Lewis has a great matchup with a Broncos rush defense that is 26th against the run. On average, they allow 5.1 ypc (2nd worst in the league) and 1.3 rush TD per game. The Browns are likely planning to establish the running game to help Brady Quinn get settled in his first game as the starter. Lewis should gain 80-100 yards and find the endzone at least once…Braylon Edwards is also a solid start against the Denver pass defense, which is 27th in the league…Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are both worth starting against a Browns secondary that hasn’t been great against opposing WRs. On the whole, the Browns have a pretty good pass defense, but they allow quite a few fantasy points to wideouts…Ryan Torain looks like a sneaky good start against a Browns rush defense that is 28th in the league and yields an average of 148 yards and 1.1 rush TD per game. Be warned, Mike Shanahan is just as likely to pull a free agent off the street and go with a RBBC as he is to give Torain a full load.
LEAVE ‘EM
There are no players that I would bench based on the matchup, but I’m not feeling good about the chances of Tony Scheffler returning this week. He’s listed as questionable and didn’t sound positive earlier in the week when asked about the injury.
Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/04/2008 @ 10:40 am)
Post all of your fantasy questions here.
Waiver Wire Watch: Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/04/2008 @ 10:11 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
QUARTERBACKS
Gus Frerotte (29.9)
Frerotte has been a fringe fantasy starter since he took over in Minny. Three touchdowns against the Texans doesn’t hurt.
Sage Rosenfels (1.3)
In eight games where he attemped 20+ passes, he averaged 220 yards and 1.9 TD. He’s a borderline starter as long as Schaub is out.
Brady Quinn (9.9)
It’s official. He’s taking over for Derek Anderson. He’s worth a pickup for teams in need of QB help.
Joe Flacco (20.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.2)
Tyler Thigpen (5.4)
Byron Leftwich (0.4)
With Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, Leftwitch could be in for a few nice games.
Shaun Hill (6.1)
For desperate owners, it’s worth rolling the dice on a QB in Mike Martz’s system.
Kerry Collins (21.6)
JaMarcus Russell (36.3)
Seneca Wallace (4.8)
Brooks Bollinger (0.4)
Read the rest after the jump...
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire picks, fantasy football waiver wire watch, fantasy football waiver wire week 10, fantasy football week 10, fantasy waivers, waiver wire picks, waiver wire pickups, waiver wire watch, waiver wire week 10

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