Fantasy Fallout, Week 10: Where Kyle Orton looks like his old self
Posted by John Paulsen (11/15/2010 @ 7:00 am)
The Broncos jumped all over the Chiefs, as Kyle Orton (296 yards, 4 TD) hooked up with Brandon Lloyd (6-90-2) for several big plays. Knowshon Moreno finished with 156 yards on 25 touches and scored on a 17-yard catch. With the Chiefs playing from behind the entire game, Jamaal Charles (19 touches, 121 yards, TD) dominated the work in the KC backfield. Thomas Jones (5 touches, 22 yards) never really got it going. In the passing game, Matt Cassel (469 yards, 4 TD) connected with Dwayne Bowe (13-186-2) over and over and over. Many prognosticators were down on Bowe this week due to his matchup with Champ Bailey, but that clearly wasn’t an issue. What’s strange is that Cassel only targeted Tony Moeaki (1-34) three times even though he threw 53 passes.
Bills 14, Lions 12…That’s a fairly stunning score given the offenses and defenses involved. Shaun Hill (323 yards, TD, INT) finished with pretty nice numbers, though he didn’t throw his TD until late in the 4th quarter. Calvin Johnson (10-128-1) continues to dominate, but Jahvid Best‘s numbers (17 carries, 35 yards) are very worrisome considering the Bills own the 32nd-ranked rush defense in the league. Plus, he only had four yards in the passing game, marking the first game in his last six in which he had fewer than 30 yards through the air. For the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick (146 yards, TD) was pretty quiet, so as a result Lee Evans (2-52) and Steve Johnson (3-37) were quiet too. Instead, it was the Fred Jackson show. He racked up 170 total yards and scored twice. C.J. Spiller left with a hamstring injury, so look for Jackson to be a good start in the weeks to come.
The Browns and Jets went to overtime, and New York won on a 37-yard TD catch by Santonio Holmes (5-76-1), who continues to come up big in clutch situations. Mark Sanchez (299 yards, 2 TD, INT, rush TD) showed a lot of grit by shaking off a calf injury and dodging a number of sacks that could have snuffed out the Jets’ chances. The Jets promised a 50/50 split in the backfield and they delivered; Shonn Greene (23 touches, 94 yards) and LaDainian Tomlinson (24 touches, 110 yards) split the work but were both heavily involved. For the Browns, Peyton Hillis (23 touches, 109 yards, TD) put up great numbers in a terrible matchup, so he’s entering ‘must-start’ territory. Benjamin Watson (5-74) bounced back from a couple of bad games with a big outing.
The Tennessee debut of Randy Moss (1-24, 4 targets) was not good, but Nate Washington (3-26-1) and Bo Scaife (7-51) benefited from the attention the Dolphins were paying to Moss. Miami had to use all three QBs, so there’s no telling who will be under center in Week 11. Brandon Marshall (3-36) continues to struggle, and while Ronnie Brown scored, he only gained 11 yards on the day. Ricky Williams (12 touches, 60 yards) outplayed him. Anthony Fasano (5-110-1) had his best game of the year.
The HOU/JAX game was fun, and David Garrard (342 yards, 2 TD) continues to play well in good matchups. His second TD came on the game-winning Hail Mary which ricocheted into Mike Thomas‘s hands. Thomas finished with 8-149-1 and benefited from Mike Sims-Walker (3-26) missing big chunks of the game with some sort of leg injury. Thomas continues to play well with Garrard under center. The old Maurice Jones-Drew (26 touches, 123 yards, 2 TD) seems to be back. Meanwhile, Kevin Walter (6-90-1) stepped up for the Texans after being very quiet the last few weeks. He had six targets to Jacoby Jones’s two.
The Cowboys looked a lot better in their first game in the Jason Garrett era. Jon Kitna (327 yards, 3 TD, INT) posted great numbers in a terrible passing matchup, and Dez Bryant (3-104-1) continues to be his favorite target. Miles Austin (2-68-1) caught a TD which saved him from another disappointing day. Jason Witten (1-7) was a non-factor, but Felix Jones (17 touches, 136 yards, TD) had a big day, thanks to his 71-yard TD catch and run. For the Giants, Mario Manningham (10-91-1) and Kevin Boss (5-81-1) stepped up with Steve Smith 2.0 sidelined with a injured pec.
Tweeting NFL Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/14/2010 @ 11:50 am)
Anthony Stalter (under @TheScoresReport) and I (under @fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 10. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…
Injuries create fantasy opportunities
Posted by John Paulsen (11/12/2010 @ 3:11 pm)
In this, the last week of byes, there are a few situations that have created opportunity for (somewhat desperate) fantasy owners to pluck a player off the waiver wire and immediately insert them in their starting lineups:
1. Steve Smith 2.0 is out. Mario Manningham is a top 20 play this week. Manningham is available in about 40% of ESPN leagues, so he’s not widely available. But if he’s out there, he’s a pretty solid WR2/flex option with Smith 2.0 sidelined in a great matchup with a very suspect Cowboys’ pass defense. If Manningham is on your bench, consider starting him this week. I have him ranked #19.
2. Owen Daniels is ruled out. Joel Dreessen looks like a sneaky good play. Last week, with Daniels sidelined, Dreessen caught five passes for 67 yards and was the most-targeted Texan receiver (8). He has caught two TDs on the year and has a terrific matchup with Jacksonville, who is among the worst at giving up points to opposing TEs. I have him ranked #14 this week.
3. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are out. Mike Goodson gets the start. Tyrell Sutton is out as well, so Goodson has no competition for carries this week. The Bucs are 30th against the run, so there is some opportunity for Goodson to rack up some yards on the ground. He is also dangerous as a pass catcher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gained 120+ yards from scrimmage. I have him ranked #26 this week, so he’s a fringe RB2/flex play.
2010 Fantasy Football: Week 10 Rankings
Posted by John Paulsen (11/10/2010 @ 6:56 pm)
I don’t generally like to toot my own horn, but since no one is going to toot it for me…well…toot. I finished #5 in Week 9 of the FantasyPros expert accuracy contest and held my rank at #1 for the fifth straight week.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, John Paulsen (The Scores Report) currently sits atop the YTD leaderboard as the most accurate expert in our study. This now marks the fifth consecutive week that he has occupied the #1 position. To put this in perspective, Randy Moss has been a member of 3 different teams since Paulsen last trailed someone else in the standings. It’s an impressive feat and Paulsen shows no signs of letting up considering that he extended his lead in week 9. A quick glance at his positional rankings reveals just how dominant he has been thus far. Of the four key positions that factor into our overall results, Paulsen currently ranks in the top 2 for three of them: RB (#1), WR (#2) & TE (#2). It’s been a remarkable run of quality advice and we can only hope the readers at The Scores Report are taking advantage of it.
Anyway, here are my Week 10 rankings which are sure to change over the next few days, so check them often. I’ll post my defensive rankings on Thursday.
(Updated Sunday, November 14.)
Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/10/2010 @ 1:15 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 9 picks fared:
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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 10
Posted by John Paulsen (11/09/2010 @ 10:45 am)

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?
I’m here to help.
After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.
If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (usually Wednesday or Thursday) when I’ll release my official Week 10 rankings.
And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.
Waiver Wire Watch, Week 10: Where Jacoby Ford makes his debut
Posted by John Paulsen (11/09/2010 @ 7:00 am)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.3)
If it seems like Fitzy’s sheen has worn off a little bit, it has, but only because he’s hit the rough part of his schedule with games against the Ravens (whom he torched), Chiefs and Bears. His schedule is pretty favorable the rest of the way and the Bills are bad enough that he’ll always be throwing.
Josh Freeman (43.8)
With two TDs against the Falcons, Freeman now has thrown at least one TD pass in seven of his eight games. His matchup this week against the Panthers isn’t great, but at least it’s at home. Things are shaping up quite nicely down the stretch with a very nice W14-16 schedule (WAS, DET, SEA).
Vince Young (59.4)
He’s having trouble staying healthy, but with Randy Moss in town, Young shouldn’t be hamstrung by the loss of Kenny Britt. Schedule-wise, things look great, with WAS, HOU (x 2) and JAX on tap down the stretch.
Matt Cassel (34.6)
Cassel has tossed eight TDs in the last four games and his schedule is very favorable in the short-term (DEN x2, ARI, SEA over the next four weeks).
Sam Bradford (27.8)
Fantasy-wise, the rookie has been terrific all season and now has 11 TDs in eight games. The schedule looks pretty nice down the stretch, but I wonder if his lack of weapons is going to come back to bite him.
David Garrard (27.3)
When last we left him, Garrard was tossing four touchdowns against the Cowboys while running for a fifth score. He has HOU and CLE in the next two weeks, so he’s definitely startable in the short-term.
Jon Kitna (13.4)
Boy I was expecting bigger things from Kitna, who has struggled to execute Jason Garrett’s offense. He isn’t being helped by the Cowboys’ anemic running game and with the Giants on tap, I’d steer clear for now.
Chad Henne (58.4)
After a nice five-game run where he threw eight TDs against six interceptions, Henne has zero scores and four picks in his last two games. With Tennessee and Chicago up next, he’s not looking like a strong start.
Jason Campbell (8.7)
As the Raiders head into their bye, Tom Cable is left with a decision. Does he bench Campbell after he led Oakland to three straight wins? Or does he give the reins back to Bruce Gradkowski? With the Steelers up after the bye, I’d wait a while and let this one sort itself out.
Matthew Stafford (40.4)
If healthy, Stafford is probably the best QB available out there on a reasonable amount of waiver wires. He has six TDs over the last two weeks, but obviously his shoulder injury in Week 9 is a big concern. He had an MRI on Monday and won’t need surgery, but he could be out a while. Update: MLive is reporting that he may miss the rest of the season.
Derek Anderson (3.3)
Anderson should only be used under the most dire of circumstances. One look at his game log and it’s easy to see that he should not be trusted.
Colt McCoy (2.1)
McCoy has a couple of tasty matchups (JAX in W11 and BUF in W14) and a few scary ones, but he’s okay as a spot starter.
Troy Smith (1.9)
Smith has a pretty nice schedule so if he continues to play solid football, he should be able to keep the starting gig.
Jimmy Clausen (0.9)
Matt Moore is out for the season. My heart goes out to anyone who has to pick up Clausen.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 10, 2010 NFL Week 10, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 10, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Waiver Wire Watch, Week 2: Meet Brandon Jackson, everyone!
Posted by John Paulsen (09/14/2010 @ 7:00 am)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.
David Garrard (20.4)
Always underrated, Garrard performs much better at home (195 y-40 TD-17 INT in 39 games) than he does on the road (172-26-22 in 33 games). (Nice split find by ESPN, BTW.) With Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis emerging, he now has a few weapons in the passing game.
Alex Smith (23.1)
I still like Smith, though I can understand the trepidation after Week 1. If he can’t produce against the Saints, Chiefs and Falcons over the next three weeks, then he probably shouldn’t be on fantasy rosters. He did play well last season, right?
Kyle Orton (35.0)
He has what looks to be a nice matchup this week against SEA (though Alex Smith might argue with that) but then he has a fairly brutal schedule over the next several weeks.
Michael Vick (3.6)
Vick is probably the best option for Kolb owners looking for answers. He was always a pretty good fantasy QB and he proved against the Packers that he still has the wheels to be a major threat in the running game.
Derek Anderson (12.3)
Anderson’s completion percentage in W1 leaves something to be desired, but once he and Fitzy get on the same page, he could be a solid fantasy QB.
Jason Campbell (12.2)
With STL, ARI and HOU up next there’s no reason that Campbell can’t post respectable fantasy numbers.
Matt Hasselbeck (6.7)
Hass was sharp against the 49ers in W1 and has a pretty nice upcoming schedule. Hopefully his back will hold up.
Matt Cassel (12.2)
He only threw for 68 yards, but the Chiefs had the lead for most of the game and conditions were horrible. (However, that didn’t stop Phillip Rivers from throwing for 298-2.)
Shaun Hill (0.0)
Hill proved in San Francisco that he was a capable backup and with all the weapons in Detroit, he should put up decent numbers.
Sam Bradford (14.3)
Bradford has a nice second half schedule, but all rookies have their ups and downs.
Josh Freeman (3.4)
It could be an ugly couple of weeks with Carolina and Pittsburgh coming up.
Matt Moore (3.5)
Jake Delhomme (2.3)
Mark Sanchez (29.2)
Like a lot of people, I’m just not sold on the Sanchize, and he didn’t do anything on Monday night to make us feel any better about him.
Dennis Dixon (2.4)
Trent Edwards (0.8)
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy football season, 2010 fantasy football week 2, 2010 NFL Week 2, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 10, fantasy football week 2, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout, Week 10: QBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/16/2009 @ 8:00 am)
- Jake Delhomme (195 yards, 2 TD) was surprisingly solid, tossing two TD to Steve Smith in the first half. When the Panthers have their running game going, it takes the pressure off their QB.
- Matthew Stafford (224 yards, TD) should be pretty good down the stretch since the Lions will be playing from behind most weeks.
- Surprisingly, David Garrard (221 yards, TD, rush TD) had a pretty nice day against a good Jets pass defense.
- Vince Young (210 yards, TD, INT) continues to play well. He made several nice throws and also had 29 yards rushing.
- Philip Rivers (231 yards, 2 TD) continues to play well, even against good defenses like the Eagles’.
- Donovan McNabb (450 yards, 2 TD, INT) threw the ball 55 times. The Eagles ran the ball 13 times. Now that’s some balance.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
Fantasy Fallout, Week 10: RBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/16/2009 @ 7:40 am)
- Neither Brian Westbrook (6 carries, 28 yards) nor LeSean McCoy (3 carries, 5 yards) did much in the ground game against a suspect Chargers rush defense. Westbrook suffered his second concussion in as many games and it looks like he will be out for a prolonged period, and there is speculation that his career may even be over.
- Michael Turner (9 carries, 111 yards) had a great first half, but left the game with what was being described as a high ankle sprain. If that’s the case, he’ll be out a while and Jason Snelling (21 touches, 93 yards, TD) will fill in for the time being.
- Ronnie Brown (14 touches, 98 yards, TD) left the game with an ankle injury. Ricky Williams (22 touches, 107 yards) will get the lion’s share of the carries if Brown misses any time.
- Predictably, Adrian Peterson (18 carries, 133 yards, 2 TD) had a great day against Detroit.
- Maurice Jones-Drew (26 touches, 145 yards, TD) would have had another TD, but he took a knee on the two-yard line in order to set up a game-winning field goal for his team. It was a smart play, but frustrating for his fantasy owners.
- Cedric Benson (7 carries, 22 yards) left the game with a hip injury. Bernard Scott (14 touches, 54 yards) took over.
- Rashard Mendenhall (13 carries, 36 yards) struggled against a pretty good Bengals rush defense.
- Reggie Bush (8 touches, 98 yards, 2 TD) had a big game against the Saints. Pierre Thomas (12 touches, 38 yards) had a quiet day.
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