Fantasy football drafts won’t fire up in earnest for a few more months, but now that the real draft is over, it’s a good time to take a look at the rookie class and try to identify those players that have the best chance to make an impact in 2009.

At any position, a rookie’s value can be estimated with the following equation:

Value = Talent + Opportunity + Readiness

Talent is probably the tougher of the three to judge, but luckily we can leverage the work of those scouts and coaches who just put a ton of time into putting together their draft boards. A first rounder is probably a little better than a second rounder, a second rounder is probably a little better than a third rounder, and so on.

Opportunity is (usually) pretty obvious. If a team has a big hole at running back and they draft one in the first round, the chances are pretty good that he’ll be the team’s leading rusher by the end of the season.

Readiness has more to do with position than anything else. Year in and year out, running back is by far the easiest position for a rookie to excel. The big hurdle is pass blocking, so if they can get that down, they’ll see a lot of playing time. Just hand them the ball and let ‘em run. Rookie wide receivers have a tougher time finding success early on, but there are usually one or two guys each year who crack the top 30. Last year, it was Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson. In 2007, it was Dwayne Bowe. In 2006, it was Marques Colston. Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans and Michael Clayton thrived in 2004. The list goes on.

Generally speaking, very few tight ends and quarterbacks make a substantial fantasy impact in their rookie seasons. In 2008, Matt Ryan had the best season for a rookie QB in years, and he finished #16 amongst quarterbacks, making him only a decent backup in most fantasy leagues.

So it’s best to focus on the running backs and wide receivers. Here are a few guys to keep your eye on…

RUNNING BACKS

Knowshon Moreno looks to be the odds on favorite to lead all rookies in rushing, though the Denver backfield is crowded with Correll Buckhalter, LaMonth Jordan, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young fighting for carries. Still, the team burned a first round pick to get him, so they obviously plan to use him. He’s a great all around back and an underrated receiver…Chris “Beanieâ€� Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. Hightower seems to be more of a short-yardage guy, but don’t rule out the Cards utilizing a RBBC. Wells has had a few nagging injuries throughout his career, but he hasn’t missed much time. His competitiveness has been questioned, though he’s a superb natural runner…Shonn Greene isn’t explosive, but he runs hard and is a patient runner. He has Thomas Jones and Leon Washington ahead of him, but those are two guys that could be overtaken if he plays extremely well in the preseason…Bernard Scott is a sleeper in Cincinnati. Cedric Benson is the starter there and Chris Perry was just cut, so it’s feasible that Scott could overtake Benson if he falters, on or off the field. Scott is a good all around back from a small school (Abilene Christian) who could surprise some people…Most of the other guys drafted early on are going to situations where they’ll likely be unable to overtake the starter unless there’s an injury of some sort. Donald Brown (IND), LeSean McCoy (PHI) and Glen Coffee (SF) fall into this category.

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Yet another fantasy football season is over, and while some owners are desperately trying to forget about 2008, I think it’s a fine time to make a few of my own New Year’s resolutions for 2009…

1. I will not draft a quarterback in the first five rounds.
Just take a look at this list of the top nine QBs (and their Average Draft Positions) this past August: Tom Brady (1.07), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tony Romo (2.12), Drew Brees (3.05), Carson Palmer (4.07), Ben Roethlisberger (5.04), Derek Anderson (6.01), Donovan McNabb (6.04) and Matt Hasselbeck (6.12). Only two of those players – Brees (QB1) and McNabb (QB8) – met or exceeded expectations, while just two others – Manning (QB6) and Romo (QB10) – had top 10 seasons. Heading into the season, I liked Jay Cutler (QB2), Aaron Rodgers (QB3) and David Garrard (QB9) in the middle rounds, but I seemed to always end up drafting a QB in the first four rounds. Roethlisberger (QB15) was my usual pick, but I did end up with Palmer, Brady, Romo and Brees on various squads as well. It’s hard to argue with Brees or Manning in the second round, but I’m not taking a QB that early in 2009 unless there is absolutely no one else I like on the board, and the chances of that happening are slim to none. I think it’s much better to load up on RBs, WRs and a TE early and then draft two or three QBs in the 7th-10th rounds.

2. I will no longer ignore RBBCs on draft day.
Back in July, I wrote a piece – “Five running games to avoid on draft day� – where I actually advised owners to avoid three backs that actually finished the season in the top 10. DeAngelo Williams (RB2), Steve Slaton (RB8) and Chris Johnson (RB9) were all mentioned in the post since, at the time, they were in the midst of some very murky Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations. Go ahead and laugh, I don’t blame you. But don’t get me wrong – I’m still going to avoid the “lead� back in RBBCs situations when it’s time to draft. I realize now that the time to look at RBBCs is in the middle to late rounds, when those “lead� backs (in this case, Jonathan Stewart, Ahman Green and LenDale White) are already off the board. Granted, Stewart and Williams both were being picked in the mid-sixth, but Johnson was available in the 9th and Slaton was going in the 14th on draft day. It’s okay to grab a back that is part of a RBBC, but stay away from the first guy, and wait until the middle or late rounds to burn a flier on the backup.

3. I will not shy away from suspended players.
In August, both Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall were facing short suspensions. Since their value was depressed, Smith was going late in the third and Marshall was going in the late-fourth/early-fifth. Sure, it hurts to lose a game or two, but in the grand scheme, it’s better to get those two players on draft day and suck it up for a couple of weeks than it is to go with a less productive player just because it looks like you’ll get a full 16 games out of him. Marshall finished as WR4 and Smith as WR10, so they were both worth drafting in the third, regardless of suspension.

4. I will not underestimate rookie RBs.
Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower…the aforementioned Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson…these are all rookie RBs that exceeded draft day expectations. The funny thing is that other than Johnson, none of those guys were picked in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. There were four RBs drafted prior to Johnson: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall, and Stewart was the only one not to have an injury-plagued season. What can we learn from the five guys that did prosper? They were all drafted into a situation where there was a gaping hole at RB (Forte, Smith) or where there was an aging/unspectacular veteran ahead of them (Hightower, Slaton, Johnson). Heading into next season, I’m adding Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles to my list of players to watch, as they have the talent (and may have the opportunity) to prosper in 2009. Being an NFL running back is a young man’s game, and it’s wise to keep this in mind on draft day.

5. I pledge…yet again…to stay away from Denver running backs.
The Denver Broncos always seem to have a good running game. This season, despite burning through a number of backs, the Broncos still finished #2 in yards per carry (4.8) and #14 in rushing touchdowns (15). With that kind of consistent production, it’s always tempting to pick the top back in Denver on draft day. After several years of abstinence, I was smitten with the 2008 prospects for Selvin Young, who had several nice outings the previous season and looked to be on track for a nice year. But even when he was healthy, the bane of my fantasy football existence – Mike Shanahan – used Young in a RBBC along with Andre Hall and Michael Pittman, limiting his value. All three backs were eventually injured, and Peyton Hillis took over in midseason, finishing the year as the team’s top rusher even though he only got more than 10 carries in two games (and was himself injured in Week 14). No more, I say. No more! Wait, the Broncos fired Mike Shanahan? Okay, then this applies to his new team, wherever he lands.

6. I’ll grab Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten in the fourth round, Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark in the fifth. Or Chris Cooley or maybe even Owen Daniels in the sixth. Otherwise, I’m going to wait on a TE.
I had Gonzo in my keeper league and boy, was it ever nice. Anyone who had Witten for the first half of the season knows what I mean. You can’t beat getting 10-20 points consistently from your TE. There’s no greater advantage in fantasy football. But tight ends are pretty spotty week-to-week, so much so that even this year’s TE3, Dallas Clark, had a very modest start to the season (and, if I remember correctly, he even hit a few waiver wires). It’s great to get a top guy, and right now that list includes six players (forget about the injury-prone Kellen Winslow, for now) – Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Clark, Cooley and Daniels – but once those “studs� are gone, it’s a crapshoot. Guys like John Carlson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Bo Scaife, Greg Olsen, Tony Scheffler, Kevin Boss and Heath Miller all had stretches where they posted starter-quality numbers. If those top guys are gone, it’s better just to wait until the later rounds to snag a few guys with upside.

7. I will be wary of young, upstart running backs when there is a vet present that still has some gas left in the tank.
What do Earnest Graham, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Selvin Young all have in common? Yes, they’re all NFL running backs, but they’re also youngish, upstart running backs that saw their fantasy value decrease due to a veteran presence in the same backfield – Warrick Dunn, Justin Fargas, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Pittman, respectively. In fact, Williams was a victim of this trend two seasons ago when everyone thought that he was about to blow up. Instead, DeShaun Foster continued to play a major role in the Carolina backfield. The grizzled Dunn is especially dangerous – he limited the upside of Jerious Norwood when he was in Atlanta before limiting Graham’s value in Tampa. Beware of the vet with a little gas left in the tank, especially if the team just signed them before the season.

8. I will always play Defensive Team By Waiver Wire.
Unless I’m in a league where I have to pay for each transaction, I am going to go with DTBWW. In my weekly, Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em, I gave at least two recommendations each week for defenses that were widely available on the waiver wire, and on the whole, those recommendations did rather well. My top pick averaged 9.8 points, while my second pick averaged 6.1 points. Combined, they averaged 7.9 points, which would yield 126 points on the season – the same total as the #6 DT (NYG) scored this year. My top picks scored at a rate that would have racked up 157 points, one point behind the #2 DT (TEN). I typically go with a defense that is playing at home and is facing a sack-happy offensive line. And usually it works out.

9. I will never again draft Chris Chambers.
I swore off Chris Chambers a long time ago, but somehow still ended up with him in my keeper league. Why did I draft him? It had something to do with the 51 catches, 833 yards and five TD he posted over a 14-game span with his new team after the Chargers traded for him last season. Specifically, it was the 23 catches, 398 yards and three TD he posted over the last five, including three playoff games against the best competition in the AFC. Something told me that the Chargers, by trading for Chambers, didn’t have faith that Vincent Jackson was capable of being the main guy. Something told me that with Gates hobbled in the preseason, Chambers could play a mighty big role in a San Diego offense that was bound to break out with an up-and-coming QB at the helm. Things started well in 2008, and although Chambers didn’t catch many passes over the first five games (11), he did find the endzone five times. After missing two games with an injury, he tallied just 22 catches for 236 yards and zero TD over the last nine games.

I’ve been playing fantasy football for 16 years now, and I’ve found that it’s important learn something each and every season. This year, I learned these nine lessons, but like most New Year’s resolutions, I’m sure it won’t take me too long to break a few. (Trust me though; I will never — ever — draft Chris Chambers again.)

- SbB laments that maybe coverage of female tennis stars has gone a little too far, as evidenced by a series of covert pics of the super-fit Viktoriya Kutuzova (right) warming up for a match. [SPORTSbyBROOKS]

- The Love of Sports lists its top fantasy football keepers for ‘09. Who made the list? [The Love of Sports]

- Busted Coverage wonders if the Packer bikini girls will be there on Sunday to watch the Lions try to avoid an 0-16 season. [Busted Coverage]

- Deadspin outlines the Best of 2008: Cheerleaders. [Deadspin]

- You’d think the Orange County Register would be focused on the big game Sunday night — you know, the Chargers/Broncos play-in game. Well, you’d be wrong. All Marcia C. Smith wants to discuss is how hard it is to be a Charger Girl. Pics included, of course. [SPORTSByBROOKS]

- This is an oldie but a goodie…The World of Isaac lists the top 10 dunks by white guys. My personal favorite is #3, but I’d wager that it was done on a 9′ rim. Video included. [The World of Isaac]

Photo copyrighted by www.sandisk.me.uk.

Yesterday was a big day in fantasy football. Most leagues held their title games, and barring a tight contest with a player or two in tonight’s Bears/Packers matchup, the champions have been crowned.

With that in mind, Epic Carnival put together a list of the Top 10 Fantasy Football Championship Week Goats.

Here are a few of the more interesting blurbs:

10. Brett Favre. What could be better than the gunslinger facing his old coach, needing the win, against a secondary that’s been generous even by NFC West standards this year? Well, let’s just say that 18 for 31 for 187 with 2 picks wasn’t on the menu. Those Favre 4 jerseys are going to come cheap this off-season. He’d rank higher, but the fact is that if he was on your roster, you probably weren’t playing for much this week anyway.

9. Steve Breaston. The Arizona #3 WR moved up to #2 this week with the injury to Anquan Boldin. Against the Patriots secondary — note: normally horrible — this was a sneaky great play, and one that you had to feel good about. He wound up with 6 more yards than Boldin, thanks to our #1 retard. Heckuva job, Cardinals.

7. Matt Schaub. More or less a must start against the usually comical Raiders, especially after the recent Texans surge. I’m thinking you weren’t expecting the Raiders to more or less dominate the game, even if you were thinking that Nmandi Asomugha was going to make Andre Johnson disappear. Schaub’s 255 yards, no touchdowns, 1 pick and 10 yards rushing day probably didn’t make you lose, but it sure as hell wasn’t what you were hoping for, either.

1. Kurt Warner. Licking your chops for that Patriot secondary, were you? That must have been before you saw the snow, and the entire Cardinals team look like they were melting from the exposure to it. Your season savior had 30 yards today, got pulled due to the utter lack of competitiveness, and more or less reminded you why the Cardinals are the worst playoff team in the history of the world.

I expected that all four of these players would have big days, but once the snow hit in New England, I thought the Cardinals might struggle. Heck, I was so worried about the weather that I even benched Matt Cassel in one title game, but was (thankfully) still able to pull out the win, due in no small part to the fact that my opponent started several goats.

There are a few names on the list — Marion Barber, Willie Parker, DeShaun Foster — that I doubt anyone was starting in their title games. For a “championship goats” list, it’s helpful to look at players that were great all season (or especially productive in Week 15) that turned in pathetic performances in Week 16. Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub are perfect examples, but who else fits the bill?

I personally know two guys who are none too pleased with Andre Johnson (2 catches, 19 yards), who led many fantasy owners to their championship games with a huge 11-catch, 207-yard, one-TD performance in Week 15 against the Titans. Steve Smith also had a huge Week 15 (9 catches, 165 yards, TD) only to come up small — 68 total yards, 0 TD — in Week 16. To a lesser extent, Dwayne Bowe had a nice Week 15 (6 catches, 44 yards, TD) but posted substandard numbers (3 catches, 28 yards) in the Chiefs’ shootout with Miami. Deion Branch caught nine passes for 164 yards and two TD in Week 14 and Week 15, but mustered only two catches for six yards against a weak Jets pass defense on Sunday. In the same game, Thomas Jones gained 96 yards but failed to score a TD for only the second time in nine games. Roddy White came up small (3 catches, 24 yards) after a great season and a so-so Week 15. In non-PPR leagues, Brian Westbrook only scored 11 fantasy points, and my guess is that his owners needed more. Santana Moss (5 catches, 28 yards) failed to follow up a strong Week 15 performance (7 catches, 72 yards, TD) against the Bengals.

It’s interesting that most of the guys I mention here are wide receivers. It seems like most of the key QBs, RBs and TEs performed pretty well in Week 16, though I’m sure I’m forgetting a few guys.

Dominic Rhodes gets the start, but Joseph Addai is active. I would guess that this will be a 50/50 to 60/40 RBBC, with Rhodes the favorite to get most of the work. If the Colts get a lead, I’d expect Rhodes to bring Indy home. The Colts won’t want to risk Addai out there if they have a substantial lead.

The bottom line is that Rhodes is still a decent start, but Addai’s presence hampers his value somewhat.

Listen in as Anthony and I discuss Brandon Jacobs’ and Marion Barber’s status, Tarvaris Jackson’s chances against the Falcons, and the RB situation in New Orleans.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup - just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys - players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Peyton Manning, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em� players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Don’t overthink things and bench Kurt Warner this week. The Pats are not very good against the pass, so Warner and Co. should be able to have their way through the air. The only wildcard is the weather…Matt Cassel is a nice start against an Arizona defense that has given up the most pass TD (31) in the league…Despite the long plane ride, Brett Favre looks like a good start against a Seahawks pass defense that is last in the league in yards allowed…In the same game, Seneca Wallace has a nice matchup with the Jets defense that is 29th in the league against the pass…Dan Orlovsky played pretty well last week against the Colts and he has a great matchup this week against the Saints, who own the league’s 26th ranked pass defense. He’s a legit option for the desperate…For the super-desperate, JaMarcus Russell (vs. HOU) and Brian Griese (vs. SD) both have good matchups. If Jeff Garcia starts, he’s a solid play against a Chargers defense that is ranked 31st against the pass.

Just about every fantasy league is in its final week of the playoffs, so I’m going to do a quick rundown of the guys available at each position. To qualify, players have to be available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system. And I’ll focus mainly on the player’s Week 16 matchup.

QUARTERBACKS

Shaun Hill (43.1)
Dan Orlovsky (2.9)
Mark Bulger (40.0)
JaMarcus Russell (23.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.1)
Seneca Wallace (6.1)
Tarvaris Jackson (5.4)
J.P. Losman (4.4)
Ken Dorsey (0.9)

It’s the last week of the season!

Post your roster questions here, and be sure to let me know if you are in a PPR league.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup - just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys - players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Peyton Manning, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em� players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: There are a number of so-so QBs with nice matchups this week. Phillip Rivers has a nice matchup with a Kansas City defense that is ranked 29th against the pass…. Tyler Thigpen has proven himself to be a capable fantasy QB, and his matchup with the Chargers 30th-ranked pass defense is a tasty one…Kyle Orton has been solid this year, and as long as the weather cooperates, he should be a good start against the Saints, who have struggled against the pass this season…Jason Campbell faces the Bengals, who have yielded 1.6 pass TD per game this year…Kerry Collins’ problem against the Lions was that Detroit couldn’t keep it close. Houston has more of an offensive backbone and I think Collins will have to pass to keep the chains moving to put points on the board…Seneca Wallace isn’t a bad play against the Rams…For the desperate, Tarvaris Jackson (or Gus Frerotte) and Marc Bulger have nice matchups with Arizona and Seattle, respectively.

Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss how it’s wrong to blame Aaron Rodgers for all that has gone wrong with the Green Bay Packers this season, how Clinton Portis’ outburst affects his prospects this week, and what to expect from the Cowboys/Giants tilt this Sunday. I’ll also throw out a few QB sleepers for fantasy owners in need.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

QUARTERBACKS

Shaun Hill (35.7)
Kerry Collins (44.4)
Seneca Wallace (2.6)
Tarvaris Jackson (3.0)
Marc Bulger (40.4)
J.T. O’Sullivan (11.9)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.5)

Post your roster questions here. Be sure to get them in by Saturday morning and let me know if you are in a PPR league. It helps to make my advice a little bit better.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how much better Marvin Harrison is playing at Lucas Oil Stadium. At that point, he was averaging 4.8-62-0.8 (or 15.8 fantasy points) at home and 2.2-22-0.0 (or 4.4 fantasy points) on the road.

Fast forward four weeks and the trend continues. In Week 11 against the Texans at home, he posted 9-77-1. In Week 12 at San Diego, he went for 6-44-0. In Week 13 at Cleveland, he posted 3-27-0. And in Week 14 against the Bengals at home, he finished with 3-78-1. Over the course of the entire season, his averages look like this:

At home: 5.2-67.3-0.8 (or 16.7 fantasy points)
On the road: 2.9-25.6-0.0 (or 5.5 fantasy points)

Harrison looks like a great start against the Lions next week, but should probably be benched (depending on your options) in Week 16 at Jacksonville.

There’s no real logic to this trend, but through 14 weeks, it’s hard to deny that it exists.

Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss the fantasy impact of the Vikings’ and Saints’ suspensions, Marion Barber’s toe, Matt Schaub’s possible return and the New York Giants wide receiving corps.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup - just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys - players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em� players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Matt Ryan is a nice start against a New Orleans defense that was already 24th against the pass even before the suspension of Will Smith, the team’s best pass rusher…Matt Cassel is worth starting against a league-worst Seahawks defense that has yielded 265 yards and 1.6 pass TD per game…Shaun Hill is startable this week against a Jets defense that is ranked 30th against he pass…For the desperate, Gus Frerotte has a tantalizing matchup against a bad Lions defense. The only question is will Detroit put up enough of a fight so that the Vikings will have to throw the ball? Last week against the Titans, the answer was “no,â€� and Kerry Collins finished with a poor fantasy line…For the REALLY desperate, Marc Bulger and JaMarcus Russell have good matchups against the Cardinals and Chargers, respectively.

RB: Peyton Hillis is a great start against the Chiefs, who are next-to-last against the run…Steve Slaton has a tantalizing matchup with the Packers, who are awful against the run…Get Tim Hightower in your lineups this week. The Rams rush defense is ranked 30th in the league…Larry Johnson has a nice matchup with the Broncos, who are 28th in the league against the rush…It looks like Ryan Grant is going to play, and that makes him a solid start against a sketchy Texans rush defense…Given the Vikings’ defensive suspensions, Kevin Smith is suddenly an interesting start…If you have a big hole at RB, Cedric Benson is a sneaky good start against a Colts rush defense that has allowed 134 yards and 1.3 TD per game this season.

WR: Roddy White is a must-start this week against a bad Saints pass defense…Unless the Lions completely fold, I’d expect Bernard Berrian to catch at least one deep pass en route to a good fantasy line…Unless he pulls one of his disappearing acts, Lee Evans should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins’ 26th-ranked pass defense…Reggie Wayne is a must-start, but Marvin Harrison is also startable against a Cincy pass defense that has allowed 218 yards and 1.5 TD per game this season…Matt Jones continues to play well in PPR leagues, so he’s a decent start against the Bears, who have the league’s 29th –ranked pass defense.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Joe Flacco has had a nice run (11 TD in his last six games), but this week he faces a stingy Washington defense. He’s still startable in some formats, but I wouldn’t expect more than one TD this week…After a brutal 1 TD/4 INT effort against Oakland in Week 10, Jake Delhomme has been decent, scoring four TD over the last three games. This week, the 3rd-ranked Bucs pass defense comes to town, so I’m not optimistic…Phillip Rivers (vs. OAK) and Tony Romo (@ PIT) are still startable, but you may want to look at other options…Leave Ryan Fitzpatrick (@IND) and whoever is QB’ng the Browns (@ TEN) on the bench – they have brutal matchups…Jeff Garcia should ride the pine as he faces the Panthers 12th-rated pass defense. Carolina has only given up 11 pass TD in 12 games…Jason Campbell isn’t playing particularly well right now and given his matchup – the Ravens’ 2nd-ranked pass defense – it would be wise to look elsewhere this week.

RB: None of the Baltimore RBs look like great starts against a solid Washington rush defense. Besides, I wouldn’t feel confident predicting which one would get most of the touches…He’s still startable, but be wary with Marion Barber this week. He faces the #1 rush defense in the league and has a bum foot…The same goes for Clinton Portis, who can be started in a pinch, but don’t expect much from him against a great Ravens rush defense.

WR: Derrick Mason is still startable, but despite Mark Clayton’s newfound fantasy success, I’d stay away from him this week against Washington…It’s always tough to bench Braylon Edwards, but given his current QB situation and his matchup against the stingy 4th-rated Tennessee pass defense, he’s not a good start this week…i wouldn’t feel comfortable starting Vincent Jackson or Chris Chambers this week. The Raiders pass defense is surprisingly good, and the Chargers are better off attacking with the ground game…Antonio Bryant is still startable in some formats, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers against a stingy Carolina pass defense.

THINKING DEFENSIVELY (DTBWW)

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW). Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

This week’s picks:

I love the Cardinals this week, but they are only available in 32% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so they are not eligible.

IND (vs. CIN)
SD (vs. OAK)

Denver (vs. KC) is another option, but it’s tough to say which defense is going to show up.

Last week’s picks:

Unsurprisingly, the Raiders let us down.

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

QUARTERBACKS

Gus Frerotte (29.9)
Shaun Hill (30.6)
Matt Hasselbeck (48.7)
Joe Flacco (45.6)
Kerry Collins (46.7)
JaMarcus Russell (23.8)
Marc Bulger (42.9)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.7)

It’s playoff time in most fantasy leagues. Post your roster questions here.

(And be sure to let me know if you are in a PPR league or not.)

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup - just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys - players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em� players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Matt Ryan has a very nice matchup with a San Diego defense that is ranked dead last in the league in passing yards allowed. They have also allowed 1.7 pass TD per game, so Ryan should be good for at least 1-2 scores…Jeff Garcia isn’t going to set the world on fire, but he should be good for 200 yards and a TD against a Saints defense that is ranked 24th against the pass…Kerry Collins has posted solid fantasy numbers the last three weeks, but he did most of his damage against the Jets in garbage time. A matchup against the Lions is tempting, however, as Detroit is 19th against the pass and only has two INT all season.

Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss Willie Parker, Brady Quinn, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Cassel and Donovan McNabb. We’ll also kick around a few sleeper QBs that have nice matchups this week.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

The opening and closing music is Dramarama’s “Anything, Anything (I’ll Give You),” which was actually one of the most requested songs of the ’80s on L.A.’s KROQ.