Per the Houston Chronicle…

Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.

Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.

Tate will be placed on injured reserve.

I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here’s what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.

Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

With Tate out, I’m now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t start coughing up the ball.

Here’s a quick look:

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so…

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs – 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw – 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them — Matt Forte excluded — are playing in what I refer to as ‘settled’ running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.

But this piece isn’t about those guys. It’s about the rest of this year’s RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.

Below is a list of a few guys that I’m targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I’ll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:

Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009′s RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He’s just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.

Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he’s in a major timeshare I’m not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there’s a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett’s prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll’s willingness to let him loose.

Clinton Portis (8.10)
It seems like Portis has been around forever, but he’ll be 29 at season’s start and has averaged 4.0+ ypc over the last two seasons. He is reunited with his former coach, Skeletor, and has been drawing rave reviews in camp, largely because he has lost some weight and has had a great offseason. Considering that Larry Johnson is his main competition, I expect Shanny will go with the guy he knows and give Portis the bulk of the work.

Michael Bush (9.06)
Bush averaged 4.8 ypc last year behind a very suspect offensive line. The Raiders have (probably) realized that Darren McFadden would be more productive in a Reggie Bush-type role, so Michael Bush could be something of a poor man’s Pierre Thomas this season. Bush was #2 in YCo/Att with 3.4 yards per attempt, which gives us a glimpse of his pure strength and running ability. If he runs well in preseason, he should be a nice value in the 8th or 9th round. On the whole, the Raiders’ offense should be better with Jason Campbell under center.

Darren Sproles (10.05)
Not in a PPR league? You can probably skip to the next guy. Sproles is a third-down specialist who is very effective in the passing game. He finished last season as RB22 in PPR leagues largely due to his 45 catches for 497 yards. Ryan Matthews has replaced LaDainian Tomlinson, and Norv Turner would be wise to keep the rookie’s load relatively light in the hopes of keeping him fresh. That means a lot of work for Sproles, who is always a threat to break a long gainer. Also, if your league rewards individuals for punt or kick returns, Sproles is a huge threat on special teams as well.

Arian Foster (11.04)
Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, the running back position is the backbone of any good fantasy football team. But more and more, leagues have tried to de-emphasize the position by changing lineup requirements (i.e. one RB and a flex instead of two RB) or adding a point per reception, which increases the important of workhorse WRs and TEs.

Looking at the list of consensus early round running backs, one thing is clear — there aren’t many so-called ‘studs’ this season. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew are no-brainers, but after that there’s a drop off to a couple of would-be studs (Steven Jackson and Frank Gore) and an even bigger drop off to a deep tier of backs.

So it’s a good year to think about drafting a stud WR in the middle- to late-first round instead of taking the first of a big batch of very similar prospects. For example — in a PPR league, what are the chances that Pierre Thomas (ADP: 3.07) will outscore Michael Turner (1.09)? If both players stay healthy, I think the chances are pretty good. So therein lies the question: If you’re drafting 1.07, why take Turner when you are likely to have a shot at a similar back in the second or third round?

Here’s the answer — you don’t. I could see jumping on Gore/Jackson at 1.05/1.06, but after that, I’d much rather have Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald (or even Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin) than the top guy in the next group of RBs.

Look at it this way: Would you rather have Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles? I’d rather have the latter.

In fact, this might be the year where I finally do the unthinkable and go WR-WR-WR in the first three rounds, gobbling up three of the top 12 or 13 wideouts and draft a couple of underrated RBs like Chris Wells (4.03), Cedric Benson (4.06), Matt Forte (4.10) or Joseph Addai (5.05) in the 4th and 5th rounds. Of course, you’d only want to pull this trick if your league allows you to start three wideouts.

With that in mind, here are a few backs who could be had in the third round or later that would make a nice addition to a lineup stacked with 2-3 stud wideouts. Who knows, maybe they’ll even outscore Michael Turner…

(Note: All ADP data is from Antsports for mocks drafting in July for a 12-team PPR league.)

Pierre Thomas (3.07)
Thomas was RB16 last year despite scoring just one fantasy point in the first two games due to a knee injury. That’s been his issue — staying healthy. But when he’s playing, he’s productive. And with Mike Bell gone, Thomas figures to get all of the goal line work. Even with Reggie Bush stealing catches, Thomas is very active in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 10, and he has a couple of nice matchups in Week 14 and Week 16, during the fantasy playoffs.

Ryan Grant (3.06)
Grant was RB9 last year. That’s right…RB9. He finished strong, with six TD and 322 yards in the final four games of the season. He’s not going to catch many passes, but the Packers have a prolific offense, and he’s their main goal line option.

Joseph Addai (5.05)
It’s funny — Addai is coming off another fine campaign (RB6 last year), has no current injury concerns, is just 27 years old, yet he’s going in the 5th round. What gives? He’s an excellent pass catcher and has scored 35 TD in the last three years. If you’re worried about Donald Brown, then burn a 9th rounder on him as a handcuff. There, you’re set.

Shonn Greene (3.03)
When Greene has carried the ball 15+ times, he has averaged 126 rushing yards and 1.0 TD per game. All right, so he’s only had 15+ carries four times in his career — it’s still an impressive stat. He destroyed the Bengals and Chargers in the playoffs with a total of 263 yards and two scores. LaDainian Tomlinson will back him up, but at this point, Greene is far more explosive. However, PPR owners should take note — Greene has one (1) catch in his career, so Brian Westbrook he isn’t.

Chris Wells (4.03)
Last season, Wells only carried the ball 23 times in the first four games and didn’t score a touchdown. Over the next 11 games, he carried the ball 147 times for 679 yards and seven TD. Wells should benefit from the Cardinals’ restructuring the offense now that Kurt Warner is no longer under center. He’s a far better runner than Tim Hightower, who is more of a third-down back. Throw in an easy schedule and Wells could be in for a BIG year.

Knowshon Moreno (3.03)
All in all, Moreno had a pretty solid rookie year (275 touches, 1160 yard, 7 TD), though he battled some injuries throughout. He can catch the ball and is a good natural runner, though he’s not a workhorse back. Correll Buckhalter will take some of his load.

Cedric Benson (4.06)
Assuming the threat of suspension is behind him, Benson projects to have another solid season in the Bengals’ productive running game. He’s a workhorse (301 carries) but his mileage is low for a 27-year-old. Don’t expect much in the passing game, though he’s show ability in that area.

Jahvid Best (5.07)
If you decide to go heavy on the wideouts in the first three rounds, Best is a nice RB2 to grab in the 5th. The indications are that he’ll be RB1 in Detroit and with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson, this is an offense that should be on the rise. Plus, he’s good out of the backfield, so he should mop up even when the Lions are trailing big.

Matt Forte (4.10)
There are two schools of thought with regard to Mr. Forte. One theory is that he’ll remain the starter and catch a ton of passes in Mike Martz’s offense. The other is that the Bears signed Chester Taylor and will give him a lot of snaps, especially if Forte struggles behind the Bears’ suspect O-line. I think it will be the former (though it should be noted that Anthony Stalter falls into the second group).

Our official RB rankings:

1. Chris Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Maurice Jones-Drew

5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson

7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Michael Turner
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Pierre Thomas

11. Ryan Grant
12. Jamaal Charles
13. Chris Wells
14. Joseph Addai
15. Chris Wells
16. Shonn Greene
17. Knowshon Moreno
18. Ryan Matthews
19. Cedric Benson

20. Jonathan Stewart
21. Jahvid Best
22. LeSean McCoy
23. Arian Foster
24. Ahmad Bradshaw
25. C.J. Spiller

26. Matt Forte
27. Reggie Bush
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Felix Jones
30. Darren Sproles

31. Marion Barber
32. Clinton Portis
33. Michael Bush
34. Brandon Jacobs
35. Carnell Williams
36. Justin Forsett
37. Fred Jackson
38. Jerome Harrison
39. Darren McFadden
40. Ricky Williams

41. Chester Taylor
42. Laurence Maroney
43. Tim Hightower
44. Steve Slaton
45. Correll Buckhalter
46. Donald Brown
47. Montario Hardesty
48. Leon Washington
49. Kevin Faulk
50. Jason Snelling

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.

Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)

A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.

This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.

But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.

Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/19 to 8/9), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per rush TD and one point per reception. Running backs will be more important in leagues with two starting slots or in leagues that don’t give a point per possession. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (4.08)
The Broncos used a first round pick (12th overall) on the talented Georgia back, and since RB is one of the easier positions for a NFL rookie to excel, his prospects for 2009 are bright. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Moreover, in 2008, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. Barring injury, Moreno should get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15 with an outside shot at the top 10, though a tough schedule puts something of a damper on his upside. He’s currently going in the 4th, but his ADP should be solidly in the 3rd assuming he gets into camp reasonably soon.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Derrick Ward, Bucs (5.01)
He’s by no means a sure thing, but Derrick Ward has a chance to be this year’s Michael Turner. He’s a veteran backup with a high ypc (5.1…Turner’s was 5.5 in San Diego) heading to a team in need of RB help who gave him starter’s money. At 28, Ward is a couple of years older than Turner was when he joined the Falcons and the Bucs also have Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams, but given his pass-catching ability (which is better than Turner’s), the multi-faceted Ward has a decent chance to be an every-down back in Tampa. Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, and averaged 104 rushing yards in those games. How many touches he gets will largely depend on Graham’s production and health (and whether or not the new coaching staff intends to use Graham as a fullback).

Pierre Thomas, Saints (3.11)
Through the first eight games, Thomas only received 37 touches (30 rushes, 7 catches) for 172 total yards and three TD. Once he swapped roles with Deuce McAllister in Week 10, he never looked back. In a seven-game stretch, he averaged 17.6 touches for 105 total yards and 1.3 TD per game. Granted, Reggie Bush missed four of those seven games, but the Saints want to limit his workload and it appears that Thomas is perfectly capable of turning in 2006-era McAllister stats (1255 total yards, 8 TD), which was the first year that Deuce and Bush shared the same backfield. The Saints’ offense is terrific and the offensive line is good, so there’s room for two productive backs in New Orleans.

Darren McFadden, Raiders (5.03)
We have more confidence in McFadden’s playmaking ability than we do in his durability. But if he can stay relatively healthy, he is undervalued at his current ADP, especially in PPR leagues. Simply stated, he’s the Raiders’ best offensive player, and while Justin Fargas and Michael Bush will do most of the work between the tackles, McFadden should get his share of touches since the organization wants him to be “The Guy.” The Raiders’ offensive line is average, but they’ll be playing from behind quite a bit, and McFadden will be a big part of the team’s passing attack.

Ryan Grant, Packers (4.01)
Grant got off to a slow start in 2008 after holding out for much of training camp. But by Week 5, he started to hit his stride, averaging 94 total yards and 0.4 TD over the last 12 games. Obviously, we’d like to see his TD/game back up around 1.0 like it was in the last half of the 2007 season, but Grant gets most of the carries in the Green Bay offense and that’s half the battle. For him to get back to his ’07 (top 10) production, the Packer offensive line has to do a better job of run blocking or the team has to get him more involved in the passing game. But given his ADP, Grant would be doing well to finish in the 12-15 range, which is definitely doable.

Ray Rice, Ravens (7.02)
Rice has reportedly increased his strength by spending a lot of time in the weight room this summer, and is a good bet to lead the Ravens RBs in touches. Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are going to get some work, but if either goes down, Rice would be an excellent value in the 6th or 7th. It’s a little risky to pick a player that is part of a RBBC, but in the middle rounds, Rice has enough upside to make him worth it.

Cedric Benson, Bengals (7.02)
Yes…Cedric Benson. Granted, he’s not going to light it up, but as a RB3 or as a RB2 in a flex league, he’s a good value at his current ADP. Over the last eight games of the 2008 season, Benson averaged 13.2 fppg and was involved in the Cincy passing game. The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh, which hurts the offense as a whole. But they replaced him with Laveranues Coles and they’ll get Carson Palmer back, which should offset Housh’s departure. Let’s not forget that Benson was once a first round pick, and didn’t suddenly forget how to run the football. Plus, he’s been all business since the Bengals signed him, and the coaching staff has been impressed with his work ethic and attitude. Rookie RB Bernard Scott is a threat, but he’s more of a big-play guy than an every-down back.

Here are our official RB rankings, by tier:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson

3. Steven Jackson
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
5. Matt Forte
6. Frank Gore

7. Michael Turner
8. Steve Slaton
9. Chris Johnson
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Clinton Portis

12. Ronnie Brown
13. Marion Barber
14. DeAngelo Williams
15. Brandon Jacobs

16. Ryan Grant
17. Reggie Bush
18. Pierre Thomas
19. Kevin Smith
20. Knowshon Moreno
21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Darren McFadden
23. Derrick Ward
24. Larry Johnson
25. Ray Rice

26. Thomas Jones
27. Cedric Benson
28. Leon Washington
29. Julius Jones
30. Joseph Addai
31. Chris Wells
32. Willie Parker
33. Jamal Lewis

34. Donald Brown
35. Jonathan Stewart
36. Darren Sproles
37. Fred Jackson
38. Chester Taylor
39. Fred Taylor
40. Earnest Graham
41. LenDale White
42. Kevin Faulk
43. Rashard Mendenhall
44. Tim Hightower
45. Felix Jones
46. Ricky Williams
47. Jerome Harrison
48. Jerious Norwood
49. Kevin Jones
50. Jamaal Charles
51. Ahmad Bradshaw
52. Le’Ron McClain
53. Willis McGahee
54. LeSean McCoy
55. Shonn Greene
56. Bernard Scott
57. Brandon Jackson
58. LaMont Jordan
59. Laurence Maroney
60. Justin Fargas

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question…

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee — Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He’s also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he’s proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno’s scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year’s draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.