Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.
Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.
Tate will be placed on injured reserve.
I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here’s what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.
Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.
With Tate out, I’m now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t start coughing up the ball.
Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.
I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.
Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.
This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.
Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledgerseems to think so…
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.
Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.
How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.
But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)
Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.
There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them — Matt Forte excluded — are playing in what I refer to as ‘settled’ running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.
But this piece isn’t about those guys. It’s about the rest of this year’s RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.
Below is a list of a few guys that I’m targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I’ll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:
Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009′s RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He’s just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.
Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he’s in a major timeshare I’m not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there’s a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett’s prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll’s willingness to let him loose.
Generally speaking, the running back position is the backbone of any good fantasy football team. But more and more, leagues have tried to de-emphasize the position by changing lineup requirements (i.e. one RB and a flex instead of two RB) or adding a point per reception, which increases the important of workhorse WRs and TEs.
Looking at the list of consensus early round running backs, one thing is clear — there aren’t many so-called ‘studs’ this season. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew are no-brainers, but after that there’s a drop off to a couple of would-be studs (Steven Jackson and Frank Gore) and an even bigger drop off to a deep tier of backs.
So it’s a good year to think about drafting a stud WR in the middle- to late-first round instead of taking the first of a big batch of very similar prospects. For example — in a PPR league, what are the chances that Pierre Thomas (ADP: 3.07) will outscore Michael Turner (1.09)? If both players stay healthy, I think the chances are pretty good. So therein lies the question: If you’re drafting 1.07, why take Turner when you are likely to have a shot at a similar back in the second or third round?
Here’s the answer — you don’t. I could see jumping on Gore/Jackson at 1.05/1.06, but after that, I’d much rather have Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald (or even Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin) than the top guy in the next group of RBs.
Look at it this way: Would you rather have Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles? I’d rather have the latter.
In fact, this might be the year where I finally do the unthinkable and go WR-WR-WR in the first three rounds, gobbling up three of the top 12 or 13 wideouts and draft a couple of underrated RBs like Chris Wells (4.03), Cedric Benson (4.06), Matt Forte (4.10) or Joseph Addai (5.05) in the 4th and 5th rounds. Of course, you’d only want to pull this trick if your league allows you to start three wideouts.
With that in mind, here are a few backs who could be had in the third round or later that would make a nice addition to a lineup stacked with 2-3 stud wideouts. Who knows, maybe they’ll even outscore Michael Turner…
(Note: All ADP data is from Antsports for mocks drafting in July for a 12-team PPR league.)
Pierre Thomas (3.07)
Thomas was RB16 last year despite scoring just one fantasy point in the first two games due to a knee injury. That’s been his issue — staying healthy. But when he’s playing, he’s productive. And with Mike Bell gone, Thomas figures to get all of the goal line work. Even with Reggie Bush stealing catches, Thomas is very active in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 10, and he has a couple of nice matchups in Week 14 and Week 16, during the fantasy playoffs.
Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.
Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)
A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.
This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.
But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.
Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.
Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.
But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?
As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.
Everything you need to know (and a lot that you don’t) about the fantasy implications of Sunday’s action.
QUARTERBACKS
Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.
RUNNING BACKS
Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.
It’s clear that RB2 duties in New Orleans belong to Deuce McAllister (15 touches, 72 yards). Pierre Thomas saw just three carries (for 18 yards)…The Raiders split touches between Justin Fargas (10 touches, 35 yards) and Darren McFadden (8 touches, 30 yards). Michael Bush saw just four touches (for 13 yards). This appears to be the plan when all three backs are (reasonably) healthy…Thomas Jones (20 touches, 78 yards, 3 TD) finally had a big game, but it’s doubtful that too many fantasy owners were starting him. I like Jones, but the Jets love to throw at the goal line…Chris Perry (13 carries, 14 yards) is playing dreadful football. He failed to score from inside the three yard line and dropped an easy catch…For a guy who’s averaging 5.6 yards a carry, Earnest Graham (5 carries, 11 yards, TD) sure doesn’t get a lot of work. The Bucs were running him at fullback for most of the game…Michael Turner (25 carries, 54 yards) put in another disappointing performance against a good defense. At least he’s predictable…The Baltimore running game was a huge disappointment against a bad Colts rush defense. Willis McGahee got knocked out of the game and his backup, LeRon McClain, only managed three carries (and fumbled once)…Maurice Jones-Drew (24 touches, 148 yards, 2 TD) capitalized on a Fred Taylor injury to post some big numbers. That’s just a glimpse of what he’ll do once Taylor finally retires…Correll Buckhalter (25 touches, 178 yards, TD) looked like Brian Westbrook, Jr…Ryan Grant (33 carries, 90 yards) looked a little better, but still failed to break off any big runs. The holes just aren’t there at the point of attack.
