2009 Fantasy Football Preview: RBs

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.

Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)

A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.

This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.

But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.

Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.

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Surprises and Busts: Trying to predict the unpredictable in fantasy football

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

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Fantasy Fallout: Week 9

Everything you need to know (and a lot that you don’t) about the fantasy implications of Sunday’s action.

QUARTERBACKS

Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.

RUNNING BACKS

Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.


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Fantasy Fallout, Week 6: RBs

It’s clear that RB2 duties in New Orleans belong to Deuce McAllister (15 touches, 72 yards). Pierre Thomas saw just three carries (for 18 yards)…The Raiders split touches between Justin Fargas (10 touches, 35 yards) and Darren McFadden (8 touches, 30 yards). Michael Bush saw just four touches (for 13 yards). This appears to be the plan when all three backs are (reasonably) healthy…Thomas Jones (20 touches, 78 yards, 3 TD) finally had a big game, but it’s doubtful that too many fantasy owners were starting him. I like Jones, but the Jets love to throw at the goal line…Chris Perry (13 carries, 14 yards) is playing dreadful football. He failed to score from inside the three yard line and dropped an easy catch…For a guy who’s averaging 5.6 yards a carry, Earnest Graham (5 carries, 11 yards, TD) sure doesn’t get a lot of work. The Bucs were running him at fullback for most of the game…Michael Turner (25 carries, 54 yards) put in another disappointing performance against a good defense. At least he’s predictable…The Baltimore running game was a huge disappointment against a bad Colts rush defense. Willis McGahee got knocked out of the game and his backup, LeRon McClain, only managed three carries (and fumbled once)…Maurice Jones-Drew (24 touches, 148 yards, 2 TD) capitalized on a Fred Taylor injury to post some big numbers. That’s just a glimpse of what he’ll do once Taylor finally retires…Correll Buckhalter (25 touches, 178 yards, TD) looked like Brian Westbrook, Jr…Ryan Grant (33 carries, 90 yards) looked a little better, but still failed to break off any big runs. The holes just aren’t there at the point of attack.

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