Fantasy football drafts won’t fire up in earnest for a few more months, but now that the real draft is over, it’s a good time to take a look at the rookie class and try to identify those players that have the best chance to make an impact in 2009.

At any position, a rookie’s value can be estimated with the following equation:

Value = Talent + Opportunity + Readiness

Talent is probably the tougher of the three to judge, but luckily we can leverage the work of those scouts and coaches who just put a ton of time into putting together their draft boards. A first rounder is probably a little better than a second rounder, a second rounder is probably a little better than a third rounder, and so on.

Opportunity is (usually) pretty obvious. If a team has a big hole at running back and they draft one in the first round, the chances are pretty good that he’ll be the team’s leading rusher by the end of the season.

Readiness has more to do with position than anything else. Year in and year out, running back is by far the easiest position for a rookie to excel. The big hurdle is pass blocking, so if they can get that down, they’ll see a lot of playing time. Just hand them the ball and let ‘em run. Rookie wide receivers have a tougher time finding success early on, but there are usually one or two guys each year who crack the top 30. Last year, it was Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson. In 2007, it was Dwayne Bowe. In 2006, it was Marques Colston. Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans and Michael Clayton thrived in 2004. The list goes on.

Generally speaking, very few tight ends and quarterbacks make a substantial fantasy impact in their rookie seasons. In 2008, Matt Ryan had the best season for a rookie QB in years, and he finished #16 amongst quarterbacks, making him only a decent backup in most fantasy leagues.

So it’s best to focus on the running backs and wide receivers. Here are a few guys to keep your eye on…

RUNNING BACKS

Knowshon Moreno looks to be the odds on favorite to lead all rookies in rushing, though the Denver backfield is crowded with Correll Buckhalter, LaMonth Jordan, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young fighting for carries. Still, the team burned a first round pick to get him, so they obviously plan to use him. He’s a great all around back and an underrated receiver…Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. Hightower seems to be more of a short-yardage guy, but don’t rule out the Cards utilizing a RBBC. Wells has had a few nagging injuries throughout his career, but he hasn’t missed much time. His competitiveness has been questioned, though he’s a superb natural runner…Shonn Greene isn’t explosive, but he runs hard and is a patient runner. He has Thomas Jones and Leon Washington ahead of him, but those are two guys that could be overtaken if he plays extremely well in the preseason…Bernard Scott is a sleeper in Cincinnati. Cedric Benson is the starter there and Chris Perry was just cut, so it’s feasible that Scott could overtake Benson if he falters, on or off the field. Scott is a good all around back from a small school (Abilene Christian) who could surprise some people…Most of the other guys drafted early on are going to situations where they’ll likely be unable to overtake the starter unless there’s an injury of some sort. Donald Brown (IND), LeSean McCoy (PHI) and Glen Coffee (SF) fall into this category.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This is an interesting class of rookie wideouts. The first eleven WRs off the board went to teams in moderate to desperate need of help at the position. Michael Crabtree jumps out as a NFL-ready prospect who should have a ton of opportunity in San Francisco. His big negative is his QB situation…Percy Harvin is a DeSean Jackson-type who can make plays all over the field. If he has a good camp, he shouldn’t have a problem beating out Sidney Rice and become Minny’s WR2…Speaking of Jackson, the Eagles might have found his running mate in Jeremy Maclin. He has good speed and quickness, but needs to learn how to deal with the physicality of NFL corners…With the departure of Plaxico Burress, Hakeem Nicks is an interesting prospect for the Giants. Domenick Hixon and Steve Smith are penciled in as the starters, but Nicks could push either for playing time…Our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, called Brian Robiskie “the most polished receiver in this year’s draft.” He’s a possession receiver, so maybe a Wes Welker/Anthony Gonzalez type. He’ll be more valuable in PPR leagues than standard TD-heavy leagues…Much has been made of Oakland’s pick of Darrius Heyward-Bey. He’s a burner, but isn’t the greatest route runner and lacks focus at times. However, Al Davis will be eager to prove everyone wrong, so there’s a good chance that Heyward-Bey will start, and that’s something…Kenny Britt joins Justin Gage and Nate Washington in Tennessee. Britt is the kind of guy that doesn’t do any one thing great, but is pretty solid across the board. With the guys ahead of him, there’s some opportunity for playing time…Juaquin Iglesias will have a chance to start if he can beat out Earl Bennett in Chicago (though Bennett played with Jay Cutler at Vandy, so he’ll probably get every chance to start)…Keep an eye on Jarrett Dillard in Jacksonville. The Jags just signed Torry Holt, but Dillard put up huge numbers at Rice.

TIGHT ENDS

Top TE pick Brandon Pettigrew looks like the best bet to make a rare impact as a rookie TE. He’s the complete package and the Lions will probably be trailing for most of ’09, so expect a lot of opportunity…Chase Coffman is a pass-catching TE out of MIZZOU that joins a Bengals team that just lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh…I’ve never seen this guy play, but Stalter thinks that Cornelius Ingram is a sleeper in Philly, though he missed all of last season with a knee injury. When healthy, the guy is a pass-catching stud.

QUARTERBACKS

Rookie QBs are best left to the late rounds, when most of the proven backups are already off the board. There are three guys that look to have a serious shot at starting in ’09. The first is Matthew Stafford, who takes over a Lions team in disarray. Working in his favor is the fact that he has Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew to throw to, Kevin Smith to hand the ball off to, and the Lions’ propensity to be trailing 95% of the time. If he can stay upright, it’s conceivable that he could have a decent fantasy year…Mark Sanchez was greeted by Jet fans like he was the second coming of Jesus. He doesn’t have very many starts under his belt, but he ran a pro-style offense at USC, so if he can pick up the playbook quickly, he should be able to start the season under center. He has Jerricho Cotchery to throw to and a pretty good defense to lean on, so he might be more of a Joe Flacco than a Matt Ryan in his rookie season in the sense that he may be more of a game manager than the leader of a potent offense…Josh Freeman joins a crowded stable of QBs in Tampa Bay, but there’s a reason the Bucs took him in the first round. He’s big, strong and has a great arm, so if he can pick up the playbook quickly, he has a good chance to start from the get-go.

A very special thanks to Anthony Stalter. You are my hero.

Last year’s wide receiver crop was a bit thinner. Dwayne Bowe was the top rookie, finishing in the top 20 in most scoring formats. This was an upset considering all the fantasy owners that were drooling over Calvin Johnson’s intangibles before the season started. James Jones and Anthony Gonzalez flirted with fantasy relevance, but otherwise rookie wideouts didn’t make much of an impact in 2007. But every year, it seems like there’s one or two that become starter-worthy. (Who can forget Marques Colston’s 2006 campagin?)

So let’s take a look at this year’s top fantasy rookies and see who’s likely to make an impact.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (pictured)
Stewart is a power back and that’s the Panthers’ style. DeAngelo Williams has been something of a disappointment, so if Stewart runs well during the rest of the preseason, it’s not inconceivable that he could earn a starting role. However, durability is a concern with Stewart, so it is more likely that the Panthers will split carries to keep him fresh and injury-free.

2. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Due to his combination of strength and speed, some compare the #4 overall pick to Adrian Peterson. McFadden joins Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the Raider backfield. Fargas had something of a breakout season in 2007 and Bush is running very well in camp, but McFadden will still get his touches. The team has said they’d like to use McFadden like the Saints used Reggie Bush in his rookie season. Oakland won’t want to wear him out, so this looks like a RBBC for the time being.

3. Matt Forte, Bears
The Bears drafted Forte in the second round to shore up a struggling running game. Cedric Benson was a bust, but the offensive line has been suspect for a couple of years now, so there’s no telling just how much Forte will help Chicago’s ground game. He has looked solid in the preseason, and should be a solid RB3 in most fantasy leagues.

4. Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is one of the more promising rookies simply because the Lions don’t have any other good options at tailback. Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun haven’t made their mark, so it’s Smith’s job to lose. He has had durability and character issues during his career, so there is some question as to whether or not he can hold up to the wear-and-tear of a 16-game season. Still, given the lack of competition, he’s an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick.

5. Chris Johnson, Titans
The diminutive speedster seems to be earning a bigger and bigger role as the preseason wears on. LenDale White will get most of the work between the tackles (and, presumably, around the goal line), but Johnson will see a lot of work in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (pictured)
With Willis McGahee coming off of knee surgery, and Rice impressing in camp, there’s a real possibility that the rookie starts at tailback in Week 1. There are rumblings that the team is none too happy with McGahee’s (lack of a) work ethic, so Rice’s value is enhanced in keeper or dynasty leagues.

7. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
The Steelers raised some eyebrows (including Willie Parker’s) when they drafted Mendenhall in the first round. For now, they see him as a complement to “Fast” Willie, but he should eventually turn into an every-down back. The writing is on the wall for Parker; it’s just a matter of time before Mendenhall takes over as the Steelers’ feature back.

8. Steve Slaton, Texans
Ahman Green is hurt. Big surprise. Chris Brown is hurt. Big surprise. Somebody has to carry the ball in Houston and Slaton is second in line after Chris Taylor. Slaton has better speed, but Taylor is a little more physical. If Green and Brown continue to miss time, we might be looking at a Taylor/Slaton RBBC in Houston.

9. Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones is the “lightning” to Marion Barber’s “thunder,” but this isn’t a timeshare. Barber is the main back, and Jones will be used to spell him and to add some punch out of the backfield in the passing game. Barber owners should definitely target Jones as a handcuff in the late-middle rounds.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Eddie Royal, Broncos (pictured)
Having already earned the starting spot opposite Brandon Marshall, Royal seems poised to be the top receiver in this year’s rookie class. He’s fast and quick, but he’ll struggle against the more physical corners. He should be able to post solid WR3/WR4 numbers if he and Jay Cutler can find a groove.

2. Josh Morgan, 49ers
Morgan was just a sixth round pick, but the lack of talent in the San Francisco WR corps has him slated as a starter to begin the season. He’s had a great preseason and should produce in Mike Martz’ pass-happy offense.

3. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
With Kevin Curtis sidelined, the door is open for Jackson to start opposite Reggie Brown. He’s smallish, but has excellent speed and can make defenders miss in the open field. Keep an eye on this WR2 battle as camp progresses, because the winner will have value in deeper leagues.

4. Donnie Avery, Rams
Avery is expected to be the Rams’ third receiver and will see most of his time in the slot. He is fast, shifty and agile, but he’s undersized. He’s a possession receiver with speed, and only Drew Bennett stands between Avery and a starting job.

5. James Hardy, Bills
Hardy is battling a bad hammy in the preseason, which is stunting his development. If all goes to plan, he’s going to be the starter opposite Lee Evans, but if he can’t get healthy by the start of the season, he’s a late-round flier at best.

6. Jordy Nelson, Packers
Nelson looks like the prototypical West Coast Offense wideout. He’s big, strong and is a good route runner. He projects to be fourth on the depth chart behind Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones, but keep an eye on Jones’ recent knee injury. Nelson stands to benefit if any of those three go down.

7. Devin Thomas, Redskins
Thomas has had a rough preseason thus far. Coming off an injury, he had a couple of drops in his preseason debut. If he gets his act together, he could overtake Antwaan Randle El as the Redskins’ WR2, but right now it’s not looking too good.

8. Early Doucet, Cardinals
Doucet is just returning from a hamstring injury, so he’s behind and probably won’t be able to win the WR3 job before the season starts. That said, with Anquan Boldin in a consistently bad mood, Doucet could be pressed into action if the Cards decide to move Q.

9. Limas Sweed, Steelers
Sweed is big, strong and fluid, but has yet to pass Nate Washington on the depth chart. With Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward also ahead of him, the Steelers are in no rush to press the rookie into duty before he’s ready.

TIGHT ENDS

1. Dustin Keller, Jets (pictured)
Chris Baker is the Jets’ starting TE, but Keller has been used as a slot receiver and red zone threat during the preseason. Brett Favre loves throwing to his TE, so Keller could make for a capable TE2 as the season progresses.

2. John Carlson, Seahawks
Seattle drafted Carlson in the second round for a reason, and Mike Holmgren recently said that Carlson is the player that they thought he was. He hasn’t been running much with the first team, but he’s a guy to keep your eye on in deeper leagues.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons
Ryan has been named the starter in Atlanta, which means he’s on the fantasy radar, especially in leagues that start two QBs. He has played pretty well in the preseason and has a few offensive weapons to utilize, so a decent season isn’t out of the question. It’s tough to get excited about a rookie QB, however.

2. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens
Flacco is in the midst of a three-way QB battle with Troy Smith and Kyle Boller. His numbers look pretty good, but he’s done most of his damage against the opponents’ scrubs.

3. Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins
The Fins didn’t bring Chad Pennington in to ride the bench, so Henne will be holding the clipboard for the time being. If Miami gets knocked out of the playoff race early, they could turn to the rookie to get him some experience.