Earlier in the week, I tackled the RBs and WRs, and now it’s time to discuss late season success with regard to QBs and TEs. Here are a few players that performed well down the stretch and what that success means for the upcoming fantasy season:
QUARTERBACKS
Brett Favre (285 yards, 2.1 TD over the L8 games) was terrific for the Vikings, especially down the stretch. But throw in a bum ankle and a M.I.A. Sidney Rice and things aren’t lined up quite as well for ol’ #4 in 2009. Rice is especially important considering his ability to go up and retrieve all the ill-advised bombs that Favre has a tendency to chuck up. Favre was QB8 last year and I think he’s looking at a finish in the 12-15 range this season…Ben Roethlisberger (310 yards, 1.8 TD over the L6 games) is going to be suspended for the first 4-5 games, and he’s going in the 9th or 10th round as a result. This makes him a great value for use in a QBBC, because he’s probably going to give you top 10 numbers once he starts his season…Vince Young (198 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 1.3 TD over the L8 games) had a better second half of the season than Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco, yet he’s being drafted behind all of these players (save for the retired Warner) heading into the 2010 season. He has three tough matchups to start the year, but it should be relatively smooth sailing after that.
TIGHT ENDS
Jermichael Finley‘s strong finish (5.5-72-0.5 TD over the L8 games, including the playoffs) has him poised to be a breakout star in 2010. He’s going a little early for my taste, often ahead of a far more proven option in Jason Witten, but he has tremendous upside and is a great pick in the late 4th or early 5th, after the last solid WRs (Steve Smith 1.0, Steve Smith 2.0, Wes Welker, etc.) are off the board. With Donald Driver in the twilight of his career, Finley is poised to become the Packers’ #1 or #2 option in the passing game, and that’s saying something with the way Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball…Kevin Boss (3.4-41-0.6 TD over the L9 games) was a big part of the Giants’ passing game down the stretch, especially in the red zone. If he can just stay healthy enough to post these kinds of numbers for an entire season, he could finish in the top 10. Given his late round ADP, he’s a very solid TE2 with some upside…Fred Davis (4.1-46-0.6 TD) was terrific for the Redskins after Chris Cooley‘s season-ending injury. Cooley is back now and Davis’s draft stock is in the tank, but he might be the only true TE handcuff out there. If you grab Cooley in the middle rounds, be sure to grab Davis as insurance. Donovan McNabb loves to throw to his TE and Washington is hurting at WR2, so if one guy gets the lion’s share of the targets, there’s a good chance he finishes in the top 10 at the position.
One of the numbers I look at when evaluating players, especially young or up-and-coming players, is their performance over the last half of the season. I’ve found that, typically, if a guy plays well late in the season, he will take that momentum/success into the next season.
With that in mind, here are several players at each position that played a lot better in the second half of the 2009 season than they did early on.
RUNNING BACKS
I’ve outlined Jamaal Charles‘s resume here, and I think it’s time people get back on his bandwagon…Fred Jackson (114 total ypg, 0.5 TD over the L6 games) was probably going to start for the Bills, but an injury has opened the door for C.J. Spiller, who has been electric…Jerome Harrison (198 total ypg, 1.7 TDs over the L3 games) is holding onto RB1 duties in Cleveland at this point, but rookie Montario Hardesty is back practicing and there’s a good chance that he’ll eat into Harrison’s carries…Justin Forsett (88 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L8 games) was great down the stretch for the Seahawks, but he’s mired in a three-way battle with Leon Washington and Julius Jones…Knowshon Moreno (84 total ypg, 0.8 TD over the L8 games) is the clear starter in Denver, when healthy, but he can’t seem to stay on the field…Chris Wells (73 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L11 games) is clearly the superior runner in Arizona, yet he’s still relegated to backup duties behind Tim Hightower…With the season-ending injury to Ben Tate, Arian Foster (121 total ypg, 1.5 TDs over the L2 games) has gone from an RB3-type 8th or 9th round sleeper to a bona fide RB2-quality 4th round pick.
All of these players are worth looking for on draft day, and only Forsett seems to be overvalued at this point in the preseason.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Anquan Boldin (6.1-78-0.5 over the L8 games) had a nice finish to the 2009 season, but he’s joining a new, run-oriented offense in Baltimore. I’d still expect top 20 numbers out of him, but a top 10 finish seems unlikely…Calvin Johnson (5.4-79-0.5) has all the talent in the world, but he has a spotty injury history and hasn’t much consistency at QB. With Matthew Stafford looking like the real deal, CJ is in line for a big year, assuming he stays healthy…Robert Meachem (4.1-58-0.8 over the L9 games) was dynamite for the Saints down the stretch and became something of a touchdown machine. He’s battling a toe injury right now, but assuming he’s good to go by Week 1, he should settle into the Saints’ WR2 role, which could mean a top 20 finish…The performance of Terrell Owens (4-69-0.5 over the L8 games) late in the season just goes to show that he still has some gas left in the tank. With a better QB throwing to him, he should have a solid WR3-type year…Chris Chambers (4-68-0.4) blew up after joining the Chiefs in the middle of last season. But he’s always been a fantasy tease, and with the re-emergence of freshly-out-of-the-doghouse Dwayne Bowe, he’s probably not going to post those kinds of numbers again. Still, he’d be a good WR4/WR5 bye week fill in…Michael Crabtree (4.4-57-0.2 over L11 games) sure didn’t show any ill effects from his early season holdout. His numbers were somewhat modest, but the fact that he was even able to produce at that level with no preseason work and no rapport with Alex Smith is a testament to his considerable talent. He should take a step forward into the top 20 this season…Jabar Gaffney (4.4-62-0.3 over the L7 games) appears to be the WR1 in Denver and seems to have a good relationship with Kyle Orton. He’s not going to catch a bunch of touchdowns, but he’s a worthwhile reserve in PPR leagues…Malcom Floyd (4.0-62-0.0 over the L8 games) will definitely benefit from the absence of Vincent Jackson and will take over WR1 duties in San Diego. If he gets Jackson’s targets (7.1 per game) and converts at the same rate and yardage as he did last season (59.2%, 17.2 ypc), he’s looking at an 1150-yard season…Brandon Gibson (4.3-44-0.1 over the L8 games) put up decent PPR numbers last season, but he’s listed behind Danny Amendola on the Rams’ depth chart, which means he has competition for that underneath stuff that he made a living with last season…Brian Hartline (2.7-45-0.3 over the L7 games) obviously didn’t set the world on fire, but he was consistently involved in his rookie season and now he’s locked into the starting job opposite Brandon Marshall. He could play Wes Welker to Marshall’s Randy Moss. At this point, Hartline is only worth a look in PPR leagues.
Heading into the preseason, Jamaal Charles’s stock was quite high, and for good reason. The 23 year-old had just come off an eight-game stretch where he averaged 140.8 total yards and 1.0 TD per game. He was going in the early second — I even saw a few drafts where he was going in the late first — but with the acquisition of Thomas Jones and the beginning of Todd Haley’s mind games (i.e. refusing to list Charles atop the Chiefs’ depth chart), Charles’s stock has slipped into the late 3rd/early 4th.
I just snagged him in a slow email draft at 3.10 on the heels of his first start of the preseason. He fumbled his first attempt, but finished with 40 yards on six carries and caught a 20-yard pass. During the preseason, Charles has averaged 8.2 yards per touch versus TJ’s 3.2. Even Haley said that he’d “be a fool” if he didn’t play Charles given that type of disparity in production:
“We want this guy to be playing when the games count,” said Haley. “He’s coming off a pretty significant (surgery). … We want him to be playing at a high level.” Haley admitted he’d “be a fool” to not play Charles if he’s severely outproducing Thomas Jones in terms of yards per carry. Added the coach: “We’ve got great competition. Both of those guys want to be pretty good.”
Moreover, Footballguys lists KC’s schedule as the second-easiest for RBs, predicting four favorable matchups through Week 16 (along with zero unfavorable matchups).
I’d still take Pierre Thomas and maybe even Ryan Grant ahead of Charles, but once they’re off the board and I’m staring at guys like LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells and Jahvid Best, Charles is looking awfully good.
Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.
Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.
Tate will be placed on injured reserve.
I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here’s what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.
Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.
With Tate out, I’m now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t start coughing up the ball.
Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.
I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.
Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.
This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.
Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledgerseems to think so…
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.
Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.
How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.
But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)
Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.
There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them — Matt Forte excluded — are playing in what I refer to as ‘settled’ running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.
But this piece isn’t about those guys. It’s about the rest of this year’s RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.
Below is a list of a few guys that I’m targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I’ll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:
Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009′s RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He’s just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.
Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he’s in a major timeshare I’m not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there’s a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett’s prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll’s willingness to let him loose.
Generally speaking, the running back position is the backbone of any good fantasy football team. But more and more, leagues have tried to de-emphasize the position by changing lineup requirements (i.e. one RB and a flex instead of two RB) or adding a point per reception, which increases the important of workhorse WRs and TEs.
Looking at the list of consensus early round running backs, one thing is clear — there aren’t many so-called ‘studs’ this season. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew are no-brainers, but after that there’s a drop off to a couple of would-be studs (Steven Jackson and Frank Gore) and an even bigger drop off to a deep tier of backs.
So it’s a good year to think about drafting a stud WR in the middle- to late-first round instead of taking the first of a big batch of very similar prospects. For example — in a PPR league, what are the chances that Pierre Thomas (ADP: 3.07) will outscore Michael Turner (1.09)? If both players stay healthy, I think the chances are pretty good. So therein lies the question: If you’re drafting 1.07, why take Turner when you are likely to have a shot at a similar back in the second or third round?
Here’s the answer — you don’t. I could see jumping on Gore/Jackson at 1.05/1.06, but after that, I’d much rather have Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald (or even Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin) than the top guy in the next group of RBs.
Look at it this way: Would you rather have Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles? I’d rather have the latter.
In fact, this might be the year where I finally do the unthinkable and go WR-WR-WR in the first three rounds, gobbling up three of the top 12 or 13 wideouts and draft a couple of underrated RBs like Chris Wells (4.03), Cedric Benson (4.06), Matt Forte (4.10) or Joseph Addai (5.05) in the 4th and 5th rounds. Of course, you’d only want to pull this trick if your league allows you to start three wideouts.
With that in mind, here are a few backs who could be had in the third round or later that would make a nice addition to a lineup stacked with 2-3 stud wideouts. Who knows, maybe they’ll even outscore Michael Turner…
(Note: All ADP data is from Antsports for mocks drafting in July for a 12-team PPR league.)
Pierre Thomas (3.07)
Thomas was RB16 last year despite scoring just one fantasy point in the first two games due to a knee injury. That’s been his issue — staying healthy. But when he’s playing, he’s productive. And with Mike Bell gone, Thomas figures to get all of the goal line work. Even with Reggie Bush stealing catches, Thomas is very active in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 10, and he has a couple of nice matchups in Week 14 and Week 16, during the fantasy playoffs.
Yesterday, I posted a list of my top fantasy QBs for next season. Now, it’s time to tackle the RB position. These rankings are for a high-performance, PPR scoring system. Off we go…
1. Chris Johnson
This year’s reigning OPOY figures to carry the same workload in 2010. He gained over 2500 yards and scored 16 times. Moreover, he played even better with Vince Young under center, so things bode well for next season.
2. Adrian Peterson
It would help if Brett Favre came back for another season, but it’s not a necessity. AP will still be the focal point of the Vikings’ offense.
3. Ray Rice
A great runner in a great running game. He gained more than 2000 yards from scrimmage and caught 78 passes. Money.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jags’ O-line raises concerns, which is why MJD isn’t higher. If they can get it straightened out, a top 3 finish is very possible.
5. Frank Gore
Finished as 2009′s RB5 even though he missed three games. That’s just it with Gore — he’s just a *little* bit injury prone.
6. Steven Jackson
Missed a game, had no help and still finished RB8. His numbers should improve as the Rams (hopefully) get back to mediocre.
7. Jamaal Charles
He scored 189 fantasy points over the last eight games. Those are RB1 numbers. Charles will be downgraded a bit because he’s a bit of an unknown, but with Charlie Weis taking over the KC offense, the Chiefs should be better on that side of the ball.
8. Michael Turner
Yes, he struggled with injuries. But he scored 140 points in the first eight games. Had he played a full season, he would have finished RB5-RB7. At just 27 (and with his limited work in San Diego), he should have several good years left.
9. Matt Forte
This is where things get really dicey. I could make an argument for 6-8 guys for these last two spots. Forte revealed at the end of the season that he struggled with injuries all year. Is it just an excuse or valid reasoning? Only he knows for sure. He’s the clear RB1 in Chicago and catches a lot of passes. He should bounce back, especially if the Bears’ offense improves.
10. Rashard Mendenhall
Of the remaining contenders, I like Mendenhall the best because Willie Parker will likely be gone, so he should be the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh. He gained almost 1400 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times even though he barely sniffed the ball in the first three games.
Honorable Mention: Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas (especially if Bush is gone), DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno
Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.
Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)
A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.
This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.
But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.
Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.
