All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The quarterback position is important in fantasy football, just not as important as it is in real football. Unless you play in a league that requires two starting QBs, there is plenty of depth at the position which means you have plenty of options.

Strategy #1: Draft a stud.
This is the simplest way to approach the position. Sometime in the first three rounds, pick the best QB available. This year, it appears that there are seven QBs going in the first 36 picks: Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.09), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (3.01), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11) and Philip Rivers (3.12). These guys have a few things in common: 1) they’re good, 2) they’re entrenched in good situations, and 3) they have good receivers to throw to.

One strategy is to set aside one of your first three picks for one these players. The upside is that you probably won’t have to worry about your QB position. You’ll run this guy out there every week and won’t have to make any decisions about whom to start. The downside is that you won’t be using one of your early round picks on another position, like RB and WR, that does not have as much depth as the QB position.

Strategy #2: Wait for value to emerge.
This approach doesn’t preclude taking a QB in the first few rounds, but it doesn’t mandate it either. You might wait until the late 2nd/early 3rd and see if Rodgers/Brees/Manning are still on the board. Or wait until the 4th or the 5th and see if one of the other four players are available. If it’s the latter, then you managed to get a 3rd round QB a round or two later, which allowed you to get a stud QB and use a 3rd round pick on that RB or WR you had your eye on.

The ‘wait for value’ approach could also stretch into the middle rounds as you wait for a well-priced QB. If that value never emerges, don’t fret, because you’re still well positioned for…

Strategy #3: Quarterback By Committee
I wrote a far more detailed post about this last week, but suffice to say, with the depth at the QB position, 2-3 middle- to late-round QBs with schedules that combine well (i.e. favorable matchups line up so there’s usually a good one every week) will form a QBBC that will perform at Top 5 levels at a fraction of the price.

My top recommendation this year is to grab Eli Manning (or Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco) in the 8th, and then Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th. For a three-man combo utilizing only late rounders, grab Big Ben in the 10th, Alex Smith in the 11th and David Garrard in the 12th.

The benefit to this strategy is that you won’t lose much at the QB spot and will be able to load up with tons of talent and depth at RB, WR and even TE in the early rounds. You’ll also have 2-3 capable signal callers on the roster to turn to if one gets injured. What do you do if Drew Brees goes down?

The downside? You can go into the season with a plan, but player and defensive performance may make picking a starter each week more of a chore than you’d like it to be. This is not necessarily the right strategy for an owner who wants a low-maintenance team.

Since I’ve already written extensively about the QBBC, and you don’t have to put much thought into picking a stud early in the draft, here are a few QBs that look like especially good values, even at their current average draft positions.

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Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve listed my top QBs and RBs for 2010, and discussed the impressive depth of the TE position heading into next season. Today, I’ll list my top 10 fantasy wideouts for 2010. (These rankings assume a high-performance, point per reception scoring system.)

1. Andre Johnson
He’s a beast and the Texans often get into shootouts. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a shoe-in for a top 5 season.

2. Reggie Wayne
Wayne over Fitz? I think so, assuming Kurt Warner retires. Matt Leinart just does not inspire much confidence right now.

3. Larry Fitzgerald
Arguably the most talented wideout on this list, but if Warner doesn’t return, he could have a big problem at QB.

4. Randy Moss
He’ll be 33 heading into next season and seems disinterested at times. Still, with Wes Welker shaky to start the season, the Pats will lean on him.

5. Miles Austin
Exploded onto the scene in Week 5 (10-250-2) and never looked back. He’s the Cowboys’ clear WR1, runs great routes and has nice hands.

6. Roddy White
Struggled with injuries this year, but didn’t miss a game. He finished WR10, but should do better with a healthy Matt Ryan.

7. DeSean Jackson
Andy Reid usually finds a way to get him the ball, in the passing game or on the reverse. He’s also a very dangerous return man. With Brian Westbrook possibly gone, D-Jax would become Philly’s primary playmaker.

8. Vincent Jackson
He’s in a great offense with a great QB. He increased his per-game numbers from an already-productive 2008.

9. Steve Smith 2.0
Smith could potentially lose some targets to Hakeem Nicks, but he’ll more than likely be the Giants’ main possession receiver. In PPR leagues, he only missed double figures once all season.

10. Calvin Johnson
He battled injuries but still scored well when he played. He has some serious upside, especially if Matthew Stafford progresses as expected.

Honorable Mention: Chad Ochocinco, Sidney Rice, Marques Colston, Steve Smith 1.0, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Anquan Boldin

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Yesterday, I posted a list of my top fantasy QBs for next season. Now, it’s time to tackle the RB position. These rankings are for a high-performance, PPR scoring system. Off we go…

1. Chris Johnson
This year’s reigning OPOY figures to carry the same workload in 2010. He gained over 2500 yards and scored 16 times. Moreover, he played even better with Vince Young under center, so things bode well for next season.

2. Adrian Peterson
It would help if Brett Favre came back for another season, but it’s not a necessity. AP will still be the focal point of the Vikings’ offense.

3. Ray Rice
A great runner in a great running game. He gained more than 2000 yards from scrimmage and caught 78 passes. Money.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jags’ O-line raises concerns, which is why MJD isn’t higher. If they can get it straightened out, a top 3 finish is very possible.

5. Frank Gore
Finished as 2009′s RB5 even though he missed three games. That’s just it with Gore — he’s just a *little* bit injury prone.

6. Steven Jackson
Missed a game, had no help and still finished RB8. His numbers should improve as the Rams (hopefully) get back to mediocre.

7. Jamaal Charles
He scored 189 fantasy points over the last eight games. Those are RB1 numbers. Charles will be downgraded a bit because he’s a bit of an unknown, but with Charlie Weis taking over the KC offense, the Chiefs should be better on that side of the ball.

8. Michael Turner
Yes, he struggled with injuries. But he scored 140 points in the first eight games. Had he played a full season, he would have finished RB5-RB7. At just 27 (and with his limited work in San Diego), he should have several good years left.

9. Matt Forte
This is where things get really dicey. I could make an argument for 6-8 guys for these last two spots. Forte revealed at the end of the season that he struggled with injuries all year. Is it just an excuse or valid reasoning? Only he knows for sure. He’s the clear RB1 in Chicago and catches a lot of passes. He should bounce back, especially if the Bears’ offense improves.

10. Rashard Mendenhall
Of the remaining contenders, I like Mendenhall the best because Willie Parker will likely be gone, so he should be the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh. He gained almost 1400 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times even though he barely sniffed the ball in the first three games.

Honorable Mention: Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas (especially if Bush is gone), DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno

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Quick — name your top 10 QBs for next season.

Here’s my list:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2009′s QB1 should have another great season. He also can beat teams with his feet. (He led all QBs in rushing yards.) Jermichael Finley looks to be a future Pro Bowler at TE.

2. Drew Brees
The Saints’ offense shouldn’t change much, though they will have a first-place schedule, so the competition will be tougher.

3. Peyton Manning
Steady and dependable. The only downside to Manning is that there’s a chance he’ll sit during the fantasy playoffs.

4. Tom Brady
He threw for almost 4400 yards and 28 TD and the perception is that he had a down year.

5. Philip Rivers
The Chargers are turning into a passing team and Rivers has a number of weapons to throw to (plus great weather in San Diego, even in December).

6. Tony Romo
It appears that Romo has turned the corner. The emergence of Miles Austin has more than replaced Terrell Owens’ place in the Cowboy offense.

7. Ben Roethlisberger
The Steelers are more of a passing team now, and Big Ben is at the center of it all.

8. Matt Schaub
I’d have him higher, but I still think he’s an injury risk. This season, he threw for 4770 yards and 29 TD. Can he repeat? Having Andre Johnson certainly helps.

9. Eli Manning
The Giants threw the ball a lot this season, more than expected. But with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, the receiving corps is young and talented.

10. Donovan McNabb
McNabb is another guy that seems to get nicked up with regularity. He missed two games this season and 17 over the last five seasons. I’d rather go QBBC with the #11-#15 guys.

Honorable Mention: Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel

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All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, there are three schools of thought when drafting a quarterback. The first is to draft a stud in the first round or two and hope that he’s destined for a great year like the one Tom Brady had in 2007. The risk here is if this early pick doesn’t vastly outplay most of his peers, or if the owner isn’t able to unearth a good RB or WR in the middle rounds, the team is going to have trouble competing on a weekly basis.

The next theory is to go with running backs and/or wide receivers with the first two or three picks and then start looking for QB value in the next few rounds. This strategy could lead to an owner getting a player ranked in the top 5 in the third or fourth round, or a guy ranked 6-10 in the fifth or sixth round, or even later.

The final approach is to intentionally ignore the quarterback position in all of the early rounds, instead building up depth at running back and wide receiver (and maybe even tight end). Then in the eighth or ninth round, start to look at drafting a QB or three in the next few rounds with the hope of putting together a cohesive Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). (I recently posted a more detailed article that focuses solely on the QBBC.)

All of these strategies can work, but they each represent a different level of risk. For owners that always draft a QB early, they need that player to stay healthy and perform at a level commensurate with their draft position. The same goes for the owner who waits for value to emerge in rounds 3-6, though his QB has better odds of matching or outplaying his draft position. The owner that holds off until the middle rounds and then picks two or three guys that he expects to start throughout the season ultimately has quite a bit more room for error. If one player has a down year, the other (or other two) could very well pick up the slack.

Which strategy you choose may ultimately depend on your draft position. If there are five or six running backs you really like in the first round, but you have pick #12, you may elect to go with Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning instead of taking a RB leftover. Or if you have pick #4 and don’t deem any of those three worthy of your first rounder, but they’re all gone by 2.09, you’ll probably end up taking another RB or going with a WR.

The key is to look for value. That might mean waiting until Aaron Rodgers slips to you in the early 5th, or going with David Garrard and Jason Campbell in the late rounds as part of a QBBC, or even pulling the trigger on Peyton Manning in the early third, especially if there isn’t a RB or WR there that you like.

Below is a list of several guys that seem to represent good value at their current average draft positions (ADP). We’ll also provide rankings for the entire QB position, broken into tiers. Keep in mind that your scoring system will have a great impact on the value of the QB position.

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With the relative depth at the position, one approach to drafting a fantasy quarterback is to spend the first six or seven rounds drafting running backs, wide receivers and even a tight end. Then, in the eighth round or later, start to think about drafting a QB. Oftentimes, the players available in the 4th or 5th round won’t drastically outscore those QBs taken in the 8th or later.

Why is this? Well, one reason is that, once fantasy owners have a starting QB, they tend to draft for depth at running back and wide receiver instead of drafting a backup QB, whom they know probably won’t sniff their starting lineup, except as a bye week fill in.

Another reason is that most leagues require two starting running backs, which means 24 starting RBs in total (assuming a 12-team league). With more and more real NFL teams utilizing a RBBC, the position is much thinner than QB, which requires 12 fantasy starters of 32 real world starters.

Typically, this results in good depth at the QB position, where the expected production from QB10 isn’t all that different than QB20. This year the QB10 off the board is Matt Ryan (7.01) while the QB20 is Joe Flacco (11.02). To illustrate my point, in a “high performance� scoring system (4 pts per pass TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), Footballguys projects Ryan to score 255 fantasy points and Flacco to score 235. Are those 20 fantasy points worth burning a 7th round pick instead of an 11th? Over a 17-game schedule, that works out to less than 1.2 fantasy points per week.

In other words, it’s probably not going to cost you too many wins to go with Flacco instead of Ryan. In fact, you’ll probably be better off because the WR or RB you draft in the 7th round (Santana Moss?) is likely to vastly outperform his 11th-round counterpart (Michael Jenkins?). Footballguys projects Moss to outscore Jenkins by 75 points, a 4.4-point per week advantage. So by going with a Moss/Flacco combo instead of a Ryan/Jenkins combo, you’re gaining a net of 3.2 points per week.

Going one step further: why not draft two middle- to late-round quarterbacks whose schedules mesh well together to create a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)? That way, you can load up on RB, WR and TE talent in the first seven or eight rounds knowing that you’ll still be able to get good QB play from a couple of later picks by taking advantage of the ebbs and flows of each player’s schedule.

To that end, I took the QB strength of schedule data from Footballguys and calculated the per week projections (by using the aforementioned Footballguys projected stats) for every starting quarterback in the league.

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Everything you need to know (and a lot that you don’t) about the fantasy implications of Sunday’s action.

QUARTERBACKS

Trent Edwards threw two picks and fumbled, but he threw for more than 197+ yards and a TD for the sixth time in eight games…Kyle Orton suffered an ugly ankle injury and it looks like he could be out for a month. Rex Grossman will fill in for him…Gus Frerotte (182 yards, 3 TD, INT) continues to play solid ball for Minnesota. Since he took over six games ago, he is averaging 245 yards and 1.3 pass TD per game.

RUNNING BACKS

Kevin Smith got 16 touches to Rudi Johnson’s 10, and Smith also scored a TD, so it looks like he is the lead back in Detroit…Cedric Benson (25 touches, 109 yards, TD) seems to be settling into the RB1 role in Cincy…All that pregame talk about Michael Bennett getting most of the work for Tampa Bay turned out to be erroneous. Earnest Graham is a solid start as long as Warrick Dunn is out. He fumbled twice, but threw a TD to Alex Smith to make up for it…There were rumors that the Cardinals were going to cut Edgerrin James’ touches and give Tim Hightower more of the workload, but I wasn’t expecting Hightower to register 23 touches (108 yards, TD) and James to register zero. It looks like Hiightower is officially RB1 in Arizona…Ryan Grant (20 carries, 86 yards) ran pretty well against a good Titans defense, which is encouraging for his owners. He failed to score a TD, however…The Denver running game was awful against the Dolphins. Three RBs (Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain) combined for 12 yards on 11 carries…Michael Turner (31 carries, 139 yards) once again tore up a bad rush defense. He has four 104+ yard games (OAK, GB, KC, DET) against mediocre-to-bad defenses and four sub 58-yard games (PHI, CHI, CAR, TB) against four good defenses. He doesn’t get any action in the passing game (3 receptions all year), so he can’t make up for a bad rushing day in PPR leagues…Maurice Morris (8 touches, 43 yards) and Julius Jones (11 touches, 45 yards) split the RB work almost evenly…BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 touches, 65 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (15 touches, 98 yards) split the work with Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan out. Faulk has more value in PPR leagues while Green-Ellis is the better play in standard and TD-heavy leagues.

It seems like there are a number of middle- to late-round young QBs that are thriving this year in fantasy football. Here are eight guys that are 26 years-old or younger and are all in the top 20 in total fantasy points scored in 2008. This list doesn’t even include other sub-30 guys like Eli Manning (27), Matt Schaub (27), Tony Romo (28), Drew Brees (29) and J.T. O’Sullivan (29), who are also tearing it up.

Most of these players were available in the 7th round or later in a typical fantasy draft, and one probably wasn’t drafted at all. I listed their current ranking in parenthesis next to their name and calculated what kind of numbers they’re currently on pace to finish with. Fantasy points are calculated using Antsports’ High Performance Scoring System.

Without further ado, here’s the list (in order of current fantasy ranking)…

(Note: For the “on pace” stats, “29/11″ represents 29 TD and 11 INT)

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB2)
Age: 24
On pace for: 3952 pass yards, 29/11, 280 rush yards, 8 rush TD, 23.7 FPPG
Rodgers has stepped into a very tough situation and has performed beyond even the most optimistic of expectations. Sure, the Packers are only 3-3, but Rodgers isn’t directly responsible for any of the team’s losses. He is confident in the pocket and has a strong and accurate arm. Moreover, he has a nice set of wheels to create more time to throw or to take off and try to get a first down himself. Most of us thought he’d have to take over for Brett Favre after #4 hung ‘em up (for good), and even that would have been a tough situation. But to deal with all that went on this summer and still perform so admirably once the season started – that’s truly impressive. Looking ahead, he has the Colts, Titans, Vikings and Bears, so the upcoming schedule is not easy. His schedule gets quite a bit tougher going forward, so it’s going to be interesting to see if he can carry his good start through the entire season.

Matt Ryan (301 yards, TD) looks like the real deal. It’s rare for rookie QBs to have this kind of success, and when they do, it’s a great sign for things to come…Marc Bulger (136 yards, 0 TD) didn’t shine in his first start since being benched two weeks ago. He’s just backup fodder at this point…David Garrard (276 yards, TD) is looking much better over the last three games and is working his way back into fantasy starter territory…Aaron Rodgers (208 yards, 2 pass TD, rush TD) continues to put up good fantasy numbers. Despite the sore shoulder, he threw a strike downfield to Greg Jennings for a TD…Phillip Rivers (306 yards, 3 TD) threw for three TD for the fourth time in six games this season and has developed into an every week starter…Matt Cassel (203 yards, INT) hasn’t thrown more than one TD in any game this season.