All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

When the topic of fantasy kickers come up, it makes us feel like Allen Iverson when someone asks him about practice: “Kickers? You want to talk about kickers?”

Still, championship-caliber fantasy teams usually have a good kicker, so it is important to stay awake in the final rounds of your fantasy draft to ensure that you get someone decent.

We generally approach the kicker position with the following strategy:

1. Pick players that kick for teams with a good offense.
Good offense means touchdowns, and with TDs come extra points. Players who kick a lot of extra points are generally more consistent week-to-week than kickers who get more of their scoring from field goals. It’s better to have someone who is going to score four XPs every week than it is to have a guy that may or may not get 2-3 field goals.

2. Pick players that kick in good weather (or indoors).
There are plenty of good players who kick in bad weather. It’s fine to draft Mason Crosby or Robbie Gould, but do you really want to run them out there in Week 16 when there are 30 mph crosswinds in Green Bay or Chicago? If you want to pick a kicker and pretty much forget about the position, grab a guy that plays in warm weather or, better yet, kicks indoors. If you do pick a bad weather kicker — and we’re going to recommend two good ones — be prepared to make a change late in the season.

The top 10 offenses of 2008 belonged to the Saints, Broncos, Texans, Cardinals, Patriots, Falcons, Giants, Packers, Eagles and Panthers. Eight of those teams had kickers who finished in the top 13: Stephen Gostkowski, David Akers, John Carney, Jason Elam, Mason Crosby, Kris Brown, John Kasay and Matt Prater. The Saints had three kickers throughout the season and the Cardinals were in the bottom 10 in field goal attempts.

The other kickers in the top 13 – Rob Bironas (TEN), Rian Lindell (BUF), Matt Bryant (TB), Ryan Longwell (MIN) and Josh Brown (STL) – played for teams that fought through suspect play out of the quarterback position. These are teams that didn’t have a very dynamic offense, so they had trouble punching the ball into the endzone. Moreover, Tennessee and Minnesota were both in the top 7 in total rushing yards, while Buffalo and Tampa Bay were #14 and #15 in that category, respectively. These teams could move the ball, but they couldn’t finish off drives very well.

Keeping all of this in mind, here are a few guys that should have top 10 years but won’t cost you much on draft day. Savvy fantasy owners shouldn’t even think about the kicker position until the 15th round, so we’ll limit this list to guys that are going that late.

Rob Bironas (15.04)
Bironas has finished as PK2 the last two seasons, so there must be something about the Titans’ approach that lends itself to kicker scoring. We’ll chalk it up to a good defense and a strong running game.

Mason Crosby (15.06)
Crosby was the top overall kicker in 2007 and PK9 last season. The Packers figure to have a top 10 offense again in ’09, so Crosby should get plenty of opportunities. Though be warned, GB plays at Chicago, at Pittsburgh and hosts Seattle during the fantasy playoffs, so be prepared to pick up another kicker if the weather turns.

Garrett Hartley (16.11)
Fantasy owners are sleeping on Hartley. He didn’t start kicking until Week 10, and averaged 9.2 points over the last eight weeks. Those are PK4 numbers and the Saints figure to have a very good offense again this season. We’re targeting him this year.
Update: Hartley has been suspended for four games and the Saints have signed John Carney. We’re not targeting Hartley anymore. (Carney looks like a nice pick.)

Kris Brown (16.01)
Brown was PK10 in 2008 and PK8 in 2007. He kicks indoors and the Texans have a pretty good offense.

Robbie Gould (16.09)
Gould was PK1 in 2006, PK5 in 2007 and PK16 in 2008. With Jay Cutler under center, the Bears figure to have a much more potent offense in ’09, so Gould should get plenty of opportunities to score. Just like Crosby, Gould’s fantasy playoff schedule isn’t the best (vs. GB, @ BAL, vs. MIN) so be prepared to pick another kicker up down the stretch.

Here are our official kicker rankings, by tier:

1. Stephen Gostkowski

2. Nate Kaeding
3. Garrett Hartley
4. Rob Bironas
5. Mason Crosby
6. Robbie Gould
7. David Akers
8. Jason Elam
9. Kris Brown

10. Ryan Longwell
11. Lawrence Tynes
12. Nick Folk
13. John Kasay
14. Matt Bryant
15. Adam Vinatieri
16. Shayne Graham

17. Joe Nedney
18. Rian Lindell
19. Jeff Reed
20. Josh Brown
21. Matt Prater
22. Josh Scobee

23. Josh Brown
24. Jason Hanson
25. Phil Dawson
26. Shaun Suisham
27. Olindo Mare
28. Dan Carpenter

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have moved to a point per reception (PPR) format, the tight end position has become increasingly important in fantasy circles. This is compounded by the NFL’s movement towards the utilization of pass-catching tight ends (i.e. players who can block a little, but are primarily on the field for their pass-catching ability).

Sometimes people scoff when we recommend drafting the top TE in the third round, but savvy fantasy owners who follow the principles of Value Based Drafting know that the top TE often carries 2nd round value at a 3rd round (or even a 4th round) price. This is the definition of value, and if that player performs to expectations, his fantasy owner is going to have a significant weekly advantage at the TE position. This translates to wins.

One nice thing about drafting a TE in the early to middle rounds is that it’s not too hard to pick out the good ones. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates have both finished in the top 4 in each of the last three seasons. Jason Witten finished as TE1 in ’07 and TE2 in ’08, and with Terrell Owens gone, Tony Romo should be looking his way even more this season. Barring injury, Witten, Gates and Gonzo are a good bet to finish in the top 5 in 2009.

But don’t fret if you miss out on one of the premier guys. There are several players who have emerged in recent years as very dependable options. Chris Cooley was TE5 in each of the last two seasons (and TE7 the year before), Owen Daniels is just 26 and has two top 7 finishes in the last two years, Dallas Clark finished as the TE6 in ’07 and TE3 in ’08, and should have a solid ’09 with the departure of Marvin Harrison. And, of course, you could always roll the dice on Kellen Winslow, who had a disappointing ’08 (TE17) after finishing in the top 4 the previous two seasons.

And then there are the young, upside guys – Greg Olsen, John Carlson, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller and Kevin Boss – who have shown flashes of fantasy stardom and are all in their early- to mid-twenties.

Since most tight ends hold more value than their respective average draft positions, it’s tough to say which players are a good value and which ones aren’t. Instead, we’re going to list a few TEs and discuss when each player becomes a nice value. This assumes a 12-team PPR league where a starting TE is required. If your league doesn’t award a point per reception or doesn’t require a TE, then the position is tremendously devalued. (In other words, wait a while before burning a pick on a tight end.)

Jason Witten in the late-3rd/4th
Witten was a little dinged up in the middle of last season, but he got off to a great start and finished strong for his owners. We like him ahead of Gates and Gonzo because injuries aren’t really a concern and he’s still playing in a great situation with Tony Romo (and without Terrell Owens).

Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez in the late-4th/5th
Gonzo is out of Kansas City and he joins the Falcons’ offense, which focuses on a great running game and controlling the ball. However, Atlanta doesn’t really have a great second option to Roddy White in the passing game and the Falcons may open up the playbook a bit more now that Matt Ryan has a year of experience under his belt. Meanwhile, Gates has added some muscle to his frame and reportedly looks more chiseled heading into 2009. He struggled with injuries last season, but hopefully those are behind him. Gates isn’t quite as consistent as Witten or Gonzo, but he has a shot to reclaim TE1 this season. We prefer Gates to Gonzo since he’s not joining a new offense.

Dallas Clark in the 6th
The 30-year-old Clark has a reputation for being injury prone, but he has played in 15 games in four of the last five seasons. He was TE3 last season, and with the departure of Marvin Harrison, he figures to get his share of the targets in 2009.

Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels in the 7th/8th
These two probably represent the last of the really solid picks at tight end. Cooley, while fairly unspectacular, has been as steady as they come, finishing TE7, TE5 and TE5 over the last three years. He may not outscore other TEs on a week-to-week basis, but you aren’t going to lose much ground either. The same goes for the 26-year-old Owen Daniels, who is part of an up-and-coming offense in Houston. He has improved his ranking in each of the last three years, and was a great value pick in 2008. The Texans always seem to be trailing, which gives Daniels’ numbers a boost as they try to play catch up.

Greg Olsen or Kellen Winslow in the 8th
Olsen scored 13.9 ppg over the last four weeks, and that’s a sign of things to come. He has the best hands of any of the Bears’ receivers and QB Jay Cutler wasn’t afraid to throw to his tight end when he was in Denver. Winslow is a little risky because of his injury history, but the Bucs don’t have a good WR2 to take the pressure off of Antonio Bryant, so Winslow will have to take over that role.

John Carlson or Zach Miller in the 9th or 10th
If you’re going with one of these two after loading up at RB, WR and QB, you’re rolling the dice that these youngsters can continue on their upward career path. If they do, they should crack the top 10. Both scored better than 10.0 ppg over the last eight games (a good sign), Carlson plays with a good QB, and Miller plays for the Raiders who have to throw a lot late in games.

Brent Celek, Vishante Shiancoe, Heath Miller or Kevin Boss in the 13th
With L.J. Smith long gone, the job is Celek’s and if he can build on his 5.5-catch, 45-yard and 1.0-TD average over the last four games, he should be in for a nice year. Shiancoe was TE8 last year, mostly due to a 7-catch, 136-yard, 2-TD performance against the Falcons in Week 16. He had some clunkers, but he should be solid in ’09. Miller isn’t going to set the world on fire, but he has averaged 48-540-5 over the last two years and that looks like a reasonable expectation for this season. Boss is the upside guy in this group. With Plaxico Burress gone and the Giants’ WRs in flux, Boss has a chance to see a big increase in targets.

Bo Scaife in the 14th
Why is last year’s TE11 going in the 15th round? We’re not sure, though Jared Cook is a threat and Alge Crumpler is still there. But Bo Scaife is like a dive bar with some seriously sketchy clientele. It’s not a place you plan on going when you begin your evening; it’s where you end up at midnight. Scaife makes a solid backup or possibly spot-starter waiver wire fodder when a bigger name TD goes down.

Here are our official TE rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez

4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Owen Daniels

7. Greg Olsen
8. Kellen Winslow

9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson

11. Kevin Boss
12. Dustin Keller
13. Brent Celek
14. Visanthe Shiancoe
15. Heath Miller
16. Jeremy Shockey

17. Vernon Davis
18. Bo Scaife
19. Tony Scheffler
20. Todd Heap

21. Martellus Bennett
22. Marcedes Lewis
23. Brandon Pettigrew
24. Jermichael Finley
25. Robert Royal
26. Anthony Fasano

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.

Last year, we provided three recommended DTBCs: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.

Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a high performance scoring system, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.

Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not the first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints’ struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.

Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.

Looking ahead to this season, Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.

Here’s our methodology:

1. Take FBG’s strength of schedule for DT9 through DT27.
We included the Bengals and Browns because our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, is reasonably optimistic about the improvement those two defenses could show this year. We eliminated the top 8 defenses according to ADP – the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Vikings and Eagles – because they’re all going in the 12th round or earlier, and that’s just too soon to take a DT to be part of a committee.

2. Apply FBG’s defensive projections to SOS.
This yields a week-by-week projection for each defense.

3. Factor in home/away advantage/disadvantage.
Middling defenses play better at home. How much better? We don’t really know, but the number was 31% in 2007 and 7% in 2008, so we’re going with 7%. This will give a boost to DTBC combinations that have a majority of the games at home.

4. Run the numbers for the 171 combinations to find the top DTBC pairs.
Here the focus is not only which defenses have the best combined schedule, but also a real-world take on what kind of outlook the defenses in question have this season. For example, if the numbers show that a Team A/Team B combo is the best, but a Team A/Team C combo is comparable, and Team C has a better outlook for the season than Team B, we might recommend a Team A/Team C combo instead. That’s what we did last year (in recommending Seahawks/Bills instead of Saints/Bills since we were higher on the Seahawks than the Saints) and it worked out well.

So who came out on top?

Cowboys (DT12, 14.05) and Packers (DT13, 14.12)
The Cowboys were DT9 last year and have a similar schedule in 2009. They added defensive end Igor Olshansky and linebacker Keith Brooking in the offseason and used five of their first seven picks on the defensive side of the ball. Wade Phillips is a defensive-minded coach and always seems to get the most out of his guys. The Cowboys should be solid again this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers are switching from a 4-3 (and a rather pathetic 4-3 at that) to Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. The Packers were DT10 last year mostly because of their big play ability. (They scored 16+ points in four games.) They drafted B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the first round, and while Raji isn’t yet in camp, both players should have an impact this season. The key will be whether or not Aaron Kampman can adjust to OLB. They still have a strong secondary and a solid line, so if they can put together a pass rush and button up the run defense, they should be in for a strong year. It helps that they have a much easier schedule in 2009.

The Packers are the key to DTBC this season, as they are a part of 11 of the top 13 combinations. They combine well with the Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Redskins, so there are other options if you miss out on the Cowboys.

The Titans and Pats may already be gone, but Stalter is high on the Seahawks (undrafted), Dolphins (16.05) and Redskins (15.09) as defensive units that could take a big leap forward this season, and none of those teams will cost you much on draft day. He also thinks the Cards (14.05) will be a little better. FBG’s top recommendation (GB/ARI) came in 9th (150.4 fp) when we ran our numbers.

The other teams that combine well with the Cowboys are the Patriots, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks and the Titans. If you miss out on the Packers but land the Cowboys, the Cards, Seahawks and Bucs may be available in rounds 14-16. Stalter isn’t particularly high on the Bucs, who lost defensive genius Monte Kiffin.

The following table shows which weeks you should start which teams. Teams with an asterisk project to outscore the other team in the combo by less than a point, so as the season wears on, and it becomes clear that the other team is playing better defense and/or has a better matchup, you may want to call an audible and start them instead.

Finally, for those that aren’t comfortable with going with a DTBC – maybe your league has a small roster size and carrying two defenses for the entire year would be difficult – here are our official DT rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Philadelphia
4. San Diego
5. Chicago

6. Minnesota
7. Green Bay
8. Tennessee
9. New York Jets
10. New England
11. Dallas
12. New York Giants

13. Tampa Bay
14. Seattle
15. Arizona
16. Miami
17. Washington
18. Indianapolis

19. Buffalo
20. Jacksonville
21. Carolina
22. Oakland
23. Cleveland
24. Houston
25. Cincinnati
26. Atlanta
27. New Orleans

28. San Francisco
29. Denver
30. St. Louis
31. Detroit
32. Kansas City

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have tweaked their rules to try to even out the importance of other positions with respect to running backs, wide receivers have become increasingly valuable in the last few years. In leagues that award one point per reception, it’s a completely legitimate strategy to draft a WR in the back half of the first round. In fact, after the top five or six PPR backs – Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore – are off the board, we wouldn’t snicker at someone who decided to pull the trigger on Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson instead of going choosing a player from the second tier of RBs. (If you’re wondering about Michael Turner, we love the guy, but he isn’t going to catch any passes and it doesn’t look like he’ll approach 376 carries again this season.)

Wide receivers are a little dicey because of the inconsistency that is intrinsic to the position. WRs have to depend on plays being called for them and on their QB to deliver the ball. There’s a better chance that a top RB will get his 20 touches (handoffs, dump offs) than there is that a top WR will get his 7-8 catches. As an example, last year’s top RB, Matt Forte, only had one game where he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points, and that was in Week 17, when it didn’t really matter. Conversely, the top WR, Andre Johnson, had four games where he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points (including Week 16, when it really mattered).

This year there appear to be a group of 12 stud fantasy wideouts: Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and Marques Colston. These are proven players that are in stable situations, or saw their situations improve over the summer (i.e. Matt Cassel in for Tyler Thigpen is an upgrade for Bowe). Anyone not on this list changed teams (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laveranues Coles), had a downgrade at QB (Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery), has an attitude problem (Braylon Edwards, Chad Ocho Cinco), or some combination of all three (Terrell Owens).

This, coupled with the relative depth at the RB position – there are a number of backs going in rounds 3-5 that are good bets to crack the top 20 or top 15 – makes this a year when drafting a WR or two in the first three rounds a pretty compelling strategy. Would it be better to have Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens or Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Ronnie Brown? We’d feel better about that second group.

Regardless, it’s always good to have a few guys targeted in those middle rounds (5-9) so that you can build depth and maybe even find a guy that develops into a starter-caliber WR. There is a tendency now to always look young at wideout, and this is causing some proven veterans to slip further than they should.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/21 and 8/11), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per receiving TD and one point per reception. Wide receivers will be more important in PPR leagues and in leagues that have a flex position instead of a second RB position. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles (5.11)
It’s rare that a rookie WR stands out, but in his first season, DeSean Jackson caught 62 passes for 912 yards and two TD. He burst onto the scene, averaging 5.5 receptions for 82 yards and 0.3 TD in his first four games, but struggled a bit down the stretch, averaging just 2.3 catches for 34 yards and zero TD in the last four games. Some argued that he had hit the rookie wall, but Jackson bounced back in the playoffs, posting 10 catches for 173 yards and a TD in the Eagles’ postseason matchups against the Giants and Cardinals. He was WR26 last year, so it’s a little perplexing that he’s going just a bit before that in recent mock drafts. His detractors argue that aside from a couple of seasons with Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb spreads the ball around, but other than Owens, when has McNabb had someone of Jackson’s talent to throw to?

Santana Moss, Redskins (7.01)
Moss finished the season as WR14, so it’s a little strange to see him going in the mid-20’s in recent mocks. He is a tough guy to get a handle on, as injuries have limited his production in certain seasons. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, the Redskins’ offense is staying pretty much the same. So barring injury, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t finish in the top 20 again in 2009. This makes him a fine value in the late 6th or early 7th.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets (7.02)
Cotchery seems to make our value list every year, but 2008 was the first year in which he regressed. Laveranues Coles is gone, which could be both a positive and a negative for Cotchery. On one hand, he’s going to be “The Guy” at WR, but on the other, he won’t have Coles to take away some of the defensive focus. He may have a rookie QB throwing to him, so Cotchery’s upside is dependent on how quickly Mark Sanchez can progress (though as camp opens, Kellen Clemens is QB1). The Jets figure to struggle, so Cotchery may be able to rack up the catches and yards in garbage time.

Donnie Avery, Rams (7.06)
Avery had an up and down rookie season, finishing with 53 receptions for 674 yards and three TD. But Torry Holt is now in Jacksonville, so WR1 duties now fall to the sophomore. The entire Rams offense struggled last season, so the team brought in a new offensive coordinator (Pat Shurmur, former Eagles’ QB coach) to implement the West Coast Offense. Steven Jackson will be the focus, but Avery should be top target in the passing game. He may miss the first part of a season due to injury, so his ADP will probably slip into the 8th or even 9th over the next couple of weeks.

Torry Holt, Jaguars (7.12)
Normally, we’d shy away from WRs that are changing teams, but prior to last season, Holt was a perennial top 10 player and he joins an offense that looks to be more effective than the one he played in last season. He said that his knee wasn’t a problem last year and that he struggled because the whole Rams’ offense struggled. If all of this is true, and the 33-year-old Holt still has some gas left in the tank, he could be in line for a nice WR2/WR3-type fantasy season in 2009.

Hines Ward, Steelers (7.10)
Let’s see. Ward was WR15 in a season when the Steelers’ passing game struggled and the team just gave him a four-year extension. So why is he going in the early 30’s in mock drafts? He isn’t flashy, and he isn’t going to explode for 1600 receiving yards. But assuming he stays healthy, Ward should be able to take advantage of an easy schedule and post 70+ receptions, 900+ yards and 6-8 TD. That would be a nice haul for a guy that’s currently going in the 7th or 8th round.

Here are our official WR rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Andre Johnson

3. Reggie Wayne
4. Randy Moss
5. Calvin Johnson

6. Steve Smith (CAR)
7. Roddy White
8. Greg Jennings
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Dwayne Bowe
11. Wes Welker
12. Marques Colston

13. Terrell Owens
14. Brandon Marshall
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
16. Chad Ochocinco

17. DeSean Jackson
18. Braylon Edwards
19. Santana Moss
20. Eddie Royal
21. Jerricho Cotchery

22. Anthony Gonzalez
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Hines Ward
25. Vincent Jackson
26. Antonio Bryant
27. Roy Williams
28. Torry Holt

29. Donnie Avery
30. Bernard Berrian
31. Donald Driver
32. Lance Moore
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Lee Evans

35. Domenik Hixon
36. Devin Hester
37. Ted Ginn
38. Steve Breaston
39. Kevin Walter
40. Josh Morgan
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Chris Henry
43. Justin Gage
44. Nate Burleson
45. Steve Smith (NYG)
46. Kevin Curtis
47. Earl Bennett
48. Chaz Schiliens
49. Derrick Mason

50. Davone Bess
51. Michael Jenkins
52. Nate Washington
53. Mike Walker
54. Devin Thomas
55. Mike Bradley
56. Joey Galloway
57. Jeremy Maclin
58. Sidney Rice
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Isaac Bruce

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.

Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)

A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.

This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.

But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.

Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/19 to 8/9), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per rush TD and one point per reception. Running backs will be more important in leagues with two starting slots or in leagues that don’t give a point per possession. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (4.08)
The Broncos used a first round pick (12th overall) on the talented Georgia back, and since RB is one of the easier positions for a NFL rookie to excel, his prospects for 2009 are bright. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Moreover, in 2008, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. Barring injury, Moreno should get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15 with an outside shot at the top 10, though a tough schedule puts something of a damper on his upside. He’s currently going in the 4th, but his ADP should be solidly in the 3rd assuming he gets into camp reasonably soon.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Derrick Ward, Bucs (5.01)
He’s by no means a sure thing, but Derrick Ward has a chance to be this year’s Michael Turner. He’s a veteran backup with a high ypc (5.1…Turner’s was 5.5 in San Diego) heading to a team in need of RB help who gave him starter’s money. At 28, Ward is a couple of years older than Turner was when he joined the Falcons and the Bucs also have Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams, but given his pass-catching ability (which is better than Turner’s), the multi-faceted Ward has a decent chance to be an every-down back in Tampa. Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, and averaged 104 rushing yards in those games. How many touches he gets will largely depend on Graham’s production and health (and whether or not the new coaching staff intends to use Graham as a fullback).

Pierre Thomas, Saints (3.11)
Through the first eight games, Thomas only received 37 touches (30 rushes, 7 catches) for 172 total yards and three TD. Once he swapped roles with Deuce McAllister in Week 10, he never looked back. In a seven-game stretch, he averaged 17.6 touches for 105 total yards and 1.3 TD per game. Granted, Reggie Bush missed four of those seven games, but the Saints want to limit his workload and it appears that Thomas is perfectly capable of turning in 2006-era McAllister stats (1255 total yards, 8 TD), which was the first year that Deuce and Bush shared the same backfield. The Saints’ offense is terrific and the offensive line is good, so there’s room for two productive backs in New Orleans.

Darren McFadden, Raiders (5.03)
We have more confidence in McFadden’s playmaking ability than we do in his durability. But if he can stay relatively healthy, he is undervalued at his current ADP, especially in PPR leagues. Simply stated, he’s the Raiders’ best offensive player, and while Justin Fargas and Michael Bush will do most of the work between the tackles, McFadden should get his share of touches since the organization wants him to be “The Guy.” The Raiders’ offensive line is average, but they’ll be playing from behind quite a bit, and McFadden will be a big part of the team’s passing attack.

Ryan Grant, Packers (4.01)
Grant got off to a slow start in 2008 after holding out for much of training camp. But by Week 5, he started to hit his stride, averaging 94 total yards and 0.4 TD over the last 12 games. Obviously, we’d like to see his TD/game back up around 1.0 like it was in the last half of the 2007 season, but Grant gets most of the carries in the Green Bay offense and that’s half the battle. For him to get back to his ’07 (top 10) production, the Packer offensive line has to do a better job of run blocking or the team has to get him more involved in the passing game. But given his ADP, Grant would be doing well to finish in the 12-15 range, which is definitely doable.

Ray Rice, Ravens (7.02)
Rice has reportedly increased his strength by spending a lot of time in the weight room this summer, and is a good bet to lead the Ravens RBs in touches. Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are going to get some work, but if either goes down, Rice would be an excellent value in the 6th or 7th. It’s a little risky to pick a player that is part of a RBBC, but in the middle rounds, Rice has enough upside to make him worth it.

Cedric Benson, Bengals (7.02)
Yes…Cedric Benson. Granted, he’s not going to light it up, but as a RB3 or as a RB2 in a flex league, he’s a good value at his current ADP. Over the last eight games of the 2008 season, Benson averaged 13.2 fppg and was involved in the Cincy passing game. The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh, which hurts the offense as a whole. But they replaced him with Laveranues Coles and they’ll get Carson Palmer back, which should offset Housh’s departure. Let’s not forget that Benson was once a first round pick, and didn’t suddenly forget how to run the football. Plus, he’s been all business since the Bengals signed him, and the coaching staff has been impressed with his work ethic and attitude. Rookie RB Bernard Scott is a threat, but he’s more of a big-play guy than an every-down back.

Here are our official RB rankings, by tier:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson

3. Steven Jackson
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
5. Matt Forte
6. Frank Gore

7. Michael Turner
8. Steve Slaton
9. Chris Johnson
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Clinton Portis

12. Ronnie Brown
13. Marion Barber
14. DeAngelo Williams
15. Brandon Jacobs

16. Ryan Grant
17. Reggie Bush
18. Pierre Thomas
19. Kevin Smith
20. Knowshon Moreno
21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Darren McFadden
23. Derrick Ward
24. Larry Johnson
25. Ray Rice

26. Thomas Jones
27. Cedric Benson
28. Leon Washington
29. Julius Jones
30. Joseph Addai
31. Chris Wells
32. Willie Parker
33. Jamal Lewis

34. Donald Brown
35. Jonathan Stewart
36. Darren Sproles
37. Fred Jackson
38. Chester Taylor
39. Fred Taylor
40. Earnest Graham
41. LenDale White
42. Kevin Faulk
43. Rashard Mendenhall
44. Tim Hightower
45. Felix Jones
46. Ricky Williams
47. Jerome Harrison
48. Jerious Norwood
49. Kevin Jones
50. Jamaal Charles
51. Ahmad Bradshaw
52. Le’Ron McClain
53. Willis McGahee
54. LeSean McCoy
55. Shonn Greene
56. Bernard Scott
57. Brandon Jackson
58. LaMont Jordan
59. Laurence Maroney
60. Justin Fargas

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, there are three schools of thought when drafting a quarterback. The first is to draft a stud in the first round or two and hope that he’s destined for a great year like the one Tom Brady had in 2007. The risk here is if this early pick doesn’t vastly outplay most of his peers, or if the owner isn’t able to unearth a good RB or WR in the middle rounds, the team is going to have trouble competing on a weekly basis.

The next theory is to go with running backs and/or wide receivers with the first two or three picks and then start looking for QB value in the next few rounds. This strategy could lead to an owner getting a player ranked in the top 5 in the third or fourth round, or a guy ranked 6-10 in the fifth or sixth round, or even later.

The final approach is to intentionally ignore the quarterback position in all of the early rounds, instead building up depth at running back and wide receiver (and maybe even tight end). Then in the eighth or ninth round, start to look at drafting a QB or three in the next few rounds with the hope of putting together a cohesive Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). (I recently posted a more detailed article that focuses solely on the QBBC.)

All of these strategies can work, but they each represent a different level of risk. For owners that always draft a QB early, they need that player to stay healthy and perform at a level commensurate with their draft position. The same goes for the owner who waits for value to emerge in rounds 3-6, though his QB has better odds of matching or outplaying his draft position. The owner that holds off until the middle rounds and then picks two or three guys that he expects to start throughout the season ultimately has quite a bit more room for error. If one player has a down year, the other (or other two) could very well pick up the slack.

Which strategy you choose may ultimately depend on your draft position. If there are five or six running backs you really like in the first round, but you have pick #12, you may elect to go with Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning instead of taking a RB leftover. Or if you have pick #4 and don’t deem any of those three worthy of your first rounder, but they’re all gone by 2.09, you’ll probably end up taking another RB or going with a WR.

The key is to look for value. That might mean waiting until Aaron Rodgers slips to you in the early 5th, or going with David Garrard and Jason Campbell in the late rounds as part of a QBBC, or even pulling the trigger on Peyton Manning in the early third, especially if there isn’t a RB or WR there that you like.

Below is a list of several guys that seem to represent good value at their current average draft positions (ADP). We’ll also provide rankings for the entire QB position, broken into tiers. Keep in mind that your scoring system will have a great impact on the value of the QB position.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed 7/15 to 8/5), and it assumes a 12-team league with a high performance scoring system, which includes 4 points per pass TD and one point per 20 yards passing. Quarterbacks will be more important in leagues with 6 points per pass TD or in leagues that don’t give a point per reception. Starting requirements are 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (4.08)
Statistically speaking, Rodgers was stellar in his first year under center for the Packers. He finished the season as QB2 and was remarkably consistent; he only had one game with fewer than 14.0 fantasy points. Nothing much has changed in the Packers offense – Greg Jennings re-signed – and while the defense should be a bit better, Green Bay’s games should be about as competitive as they were in 2008. The schedule looks a bit easier, so all signs point to another top 5 year for Rodgers. He’s a nice value at his current ADP or later.

Tony Romo, Cowboys (5.08)
From a fantasy perspective, the only thing Romo did wrong in 2008 was miss a few games in the middle of the season with an injury. When he played, he was one of the top QBs in the game, as evidenced by his 21.5 fppg average, which was third best in the league. Terrell Owens is gone, but Roy Williams has had an offseason to adjust to the Cowboys’ offense, and with top TE Jason Witten roaming the middle, Romo has no shortage of options. In order to avoid a late season swoon, the Cowboys have had him on a stricter workout regimen this summer. To top it all off, his schedule is a bit easier and he has a very nice matchup in Week 16. If he’s there in the 5th, he’s a nice pick.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (7.07)
According to Footballguys (who know what they’re doing), Roethlisberger’s strength of schedule is almost 26% easier than last season. He finished as QB16 in ’08 and QB5 in ’07, so with a nice schedule, Big Ben’s upside is big. He has two great receivers in Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, and a dependable TE in Heath Miller. The offensive line is still a concern, but the unit came together pretty well last season and they added Kraig Urbik in the second round. With a tough or mediocre schedule, Roethlisberger is probably more of a fringe starter, but with arguably the easiest schedule in the league, Big Ben looks like a very solid pick in the 6th or 7th round.

David Garrard, Jaguars (10.02)
His schedule is a bit tougher than last year, but for the money, Garrard has been one of the most steady and dependable QBs over the past two seasons. In 2008, he was QB9 with a 17.4 fppg average despite all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, which is healthy now and should be better with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton In 2007, he finished as QB16 (because he missed a few games), but had the 11th-best per game average. With Torry Holt on board, Garrard’s prospects are brighter, yet he’s still flying under the radar with an ADP in the 9th or 10th round. He’d make a stellar backup or a quality member of a two-man or three-man QBBC.

Joe Flacco, Ravens (11.02)
While Baltimore’s receiving corps is worrisome (especially if Derrick Mason stays retired), Flacco’s performance should benefit from two things: 1) having a year of experience under his belt and 2) having a much easier schedule. As a rookie, Flacco finished the season as QB19, so with some experience and several easy matchups, he’s a good bet to outplay his current draft position.

Shaun Hill / Alex Smith, 49ers (14.01 / ???)
If Hill does fend of Alex Smith’s bid for the starting job in San Francisco, he projects to be a great fantasy value. In 2008, he had an 18.3 fppg average in nine games, which was the 11th-best in the league. The 49ers should continue to play from behind, and along with the addition of Michael Crabtree and another easy schedule, Hill is a nice value in the late rounds. If Smith does indeed beat Hill out as QB1 for the 49ers, he’s worth a look too, though he hasn’t yet proven that he can perform in game situations.

Here are our official quarterback rankings:

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning

4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Tony Romo

6. Philip Rivers
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Kurt Warner
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Jay Cutler
11. Carson Palmer

12. David Garrard
13. Matt Cassel
14. Matt Ryan
15. Matt Schaub
16. Eli Manning

17. Joe Flacco
18. Matt Hasselbeck
19. Trent Edwards
20. Jason Campbell
21. Kyle Orton
22. Shaun Hill / Alex Smith

23. Chad Pennington
24. Jake Delhomme
25. Marc Bulger
26. Matthew Stafford
27. JaMarcus Russell
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Mark Sanchez

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question…

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee — Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He’s also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he’s proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno’s scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year’s draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.