Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year’s QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.

Amongst all NFL QBs, Hill also projects to face the 8th-easiest schedule. Obviously, projections are just projections, but all else being equal, I’d rather have a guy with a schedule that looks favorable. The 49ers are also likely to be trailing for much of the season, which will make it difficult for the team to follow through with its planned 60/40 run/pass split.

Hill doesn’t have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but the situation is pretty much unchanged from last season, so that isn’t a huge concern. If Vernon Davis ever taps into his significant potential and/or Michael Crabtree signs and learns the offense, it could be make Hill’s job a lot easier.

Hill is an undrafted 29-year-old journeyman, so he isn’t going to set the world on fire. I wouldn’t expect Top 10 numbers, though his performance last season would indicate that he’s capable of posting that kind of production. He’s one of those QBs who plays for a pretty bad team that should be trailing much of the time. If he can stay healthy, this could result in fantasy gold.

Grab him as a fantasy backup, especially if you have a QB that has a bye during one of Hill’s favorable matchups (McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Cutler). He’s also a great guy to look for as part of a QBBC, specifically when used with Matt Cassel, David Garrard and Eli Manning. Throughout the preseason, he has been readily available in the 12th round of most fantasy drafts, and has actually gone undrafted in many leagues.

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

My team so far: 1. Chris Johnson, 2. Steve Smith, 3. Ronnie Brown, 4. Marshawn Lynch, 5. Santana Moss, 6. Tony Romo, 7. Greg Olsen, 8. Jerricho Cotchery, 9. Fred Jackson, 10. Percy Harvin

With the bulk of my starters covered, I entered the last half of my draft planning to load up on backups at the skill positions before grabbing a couple of defenses for a DTBC and a kicker to round out my roster. Here’s a quick rundown of the remainder of my draft.

Round 11, Pick 8: Ben Roethlisberger, QB
I was pleased to find Big Ben still available in the 11th round. Fantasy-wise, he struggled last year (QB16) but finished strong and led the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory. In 2007, he finished as QB6, and with a much easier schedule this season, I think he has a great chance to finish in the top 10. Besides, I like it that he looks like Will Ferrell after a weekend bender in Las Vegas.

Round 12, Pick 5: Steve Smith (NYG), WR
I felt pretty good (but not great) about my WR corps of Steve Smith (CAR), Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery and Percy Harvin, so I was looking for a dependable PPR guy here. I expect that Smith will lead the Giants in receptions this season by catching all of the underneath stuff. This is a dangerous pick, however, because I’m sure I’ll plug the wrong Steve Smith in at least once this season.

Round 13, Pick 8: Green Bay DT
It’s probably a little early for a DT, but the Packers’ new 3-4 defense has looked great in the preseason and they are a crucial component in my DTBC approach.

Round 14, Pick 5: Hakeem Nicks, WR
He got off to a slow start, but lately Nicks has been playing pretty well for the Giants, posting 144 yards and two TD in the team’s third preseason game. With Plaxico Burress gone, Nicks has a chance for a ton of playing time in New York.

Round 15, Pick 8: Chicago DT
I wasn’t expecting the Bears DT to still be there in the 15th, but they combine really well with the Packers, so I went ahead and wrapped up my defense. The Bears and Packers do have the same bye, so I will have to pick another DT up in Week 5, but the combined Chicago/GB schedule was too good to pass up.

Round 16, Pick 5: Heath Miller, TE
Miller seems to be the forgotten man this season as youngsters like Greg Olsen, John Carlson, Dustin Keller and Zach Miller shoot up the draft charts. But as the TE15 last year (after missing a few games) and as the TE8 in 2007, Miller looks like a nice value in the 16th round.

Round 17, Pick 8: Chansi Stuckey, WR
Stuckey won the WR2 job for the Jets and showed some pretty good potential early last season. It might be a little early for him, but there weren’t any other WRs that I liked at this point in the draft.

Round 18, Pick 5: Jason Elam, PK
He was one of the top kickers last season and I like the fact that he plays at least half of his games indoors.

Round 19, Pick 8: Patrick Cobbs, RB
I wanted to back up the possibly injury-prone Ronnie Brown, and Ricky Williams was already gone. I’ve been reading some good stuff about Cobbs this preseason and if Brown were to go down, Cobbs might pick up more of the workload than people might think.

Round 20, Pick 5: Greg Camarillo, WR
With the recent news that Camarillo is starting in MIA (at least for now), I decided to scoop him up here. He probably would have gone five or six rounds earlier had he been the starter all preseason. He’s a nice guy to have in PPR leagues.

That rounds out my roster. Here’s how it shapes up:

STARTERS

QB: Tony Romo
RB: Chris Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch
WR: Steve Smith (CAR), Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Greg Olsen
PK: Jason Elam
DT: Packers

RESERVES

QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Fred Jackson, Patrick Cobbs
WR: Percy Harvin, Steve Smith (NYG), Hakeem Nicks, Chansi Stuckey, Greg Camarillo
TE: Heath Miller
DT: Bears

Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.

Willie Parker will be the Steelers’ feature back.
HC Mike Tomlin said of Parker that he is “our runner,” the implication being that he’s not going to be splitting carries with the other RBs in Pittsburgh. If this plays out in Week 1, it’s an obvious boost to Parker’s stock.

Chaz Schilens could return as early as Week 2.
He was one of my favorite sleepers, and now he’s back on the radar. Pick him up if you have a spot.

Greg Camarillo the starter in MIA?
This position battle has been fluid all preseason with Camarillo, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess all holding the lead at times. If Camarillo is indeed the starter, he’s worth a spot in PPR leagues.

Jay Cutler has “most faith” in TE Greg Olsen.
Olsen looks primed for a breakout season. Cutler loves to throw to his TE, and there aren’t too many options in the Chicago passing game.

Over the course of his tumultuous four-year career, Chris Henry has caught a TD every 5.6 passes. That’s a better ratio than Randy Moss (6.2), Terrell Owens (6.8) and Jerry Rice (7.3), in his 49er days. There has never been any doubt that the lanky 6′4″ Henry had all the tools to be a star, but he just couldn’t stay out of trouble.

According to ESPN, it was the NFL’s disciplinary policy that helped Henry see the light. He should know — he has been suspended for 14 games over the last three seasons.

“Yeah, it helped me,” Henry said, according to USA Today. “It helped me focus up, and it made me realize that if I continually wanted to play, I had to do right and be a professional.”

Since the Bengals drafted him in 2005 out of West Virginia, he’s faced charges of marijuana possession, carrying a concealed weapon, drunken driving, providing alcohol to minors and assault.

Through four preseason games, Henry has 14 catches for 224 yards and four TD. Even though he’s playing limited snaps, if he keeps that pace up, he’s on his way to a 56-catch, 896-yard, 16-TD season. Obviously, it’s tough to expect him to catch that many touchdowns, but double digits are certainly attainable given his TD-to-catch ratio. The receptions and yards are doable, and a 56-896-10 season would result in Top 20 fantasy numbers.

There are a few things standing in Henry’s way: 1) Chad Ochocinco, who is hell bent on having a bounce-back year, 2) Laveranues Coles, who still has enough ability to earn snaps by catching all the underneath stuff, and 3) Henry’s own demons, who may resurface at any time.

Still, with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the (possible) decline of Ochocinco, the Bengals’ WR pecking order is as fluid now as it’s ever been, and if the immensely talented Henry has truly turned over a new leaf, he has the chance to break out in a big way.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s hard not to like this guy in the late-middle rounds. In my drafts, it seems like he’s the best WR on the board as early as the 8th or 9th in some cases, but owners can usually wait a bit longer to pull the trigger.

But don’t wait too long.

Usually, the term “late bloomer” is used to describe someone that raises his level of play later than usual in his career, but in this case I’m referring to guys that have become fantasy relevant late in preseason. I wasn’t thinking about these players when I put together our fantasy football preview or even when I suggested several late round WR sleepers. These guys emerged as viable fantasy players as injuries took their toll, position battles were won and depth charts were adjusted.

Maybe it’s too late to draft these players, but they’re worth considering when scouring the waiver wire for help.

In no particular order…

1. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
I really like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo in PPR leagues, but it appears that Hartline has passed both on the Miami depth chart. This is a fuzzy, fluid battle. Hartline is a deep threat as evidenced by his 56-yard grab against the Bucs last week. Reports this week have Hartline and Camarillo rotating at flanker with the first team. Given his rise, I like the rookie Hartline here, but since he plays with a weak-armed QB on a run-oriented team, he’s only worth a flier in the late rounds. 9/7 Update: Now it appears that Greg Camarillo is the starter opposite Ginn in MIA. This situation continues to be very fluid.

2. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
3. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans
Nate Washington’s hamstring injury opened the door for both these players to get off to a good start early in the season. Britt is the high upside rookie, while Gage is the under-the-radar vet. Gage appears to be the safer option at this point, because he should still be the starter when Washington returns and has always been pretty productive when healthy. In the last preseason game, he posted 6-57-1 and looks to be Kerry Collins’ go-to guy. Meanwhile, Britt has shown flashes of excellence (like his 89-yard effort in the previous game), but he still looks overwhelmed at times. If you need help early on, Gage is your man, but Britt isn’t a bad guy to stash on your bench.

4. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers
Now that it’s finally clear that he’ll be the 49ers’ starting QB, it’s safe to draft Hill in the later rounds. He was quite productive fantasy-wise in 2008, posting 227 yards and 1.4 pass TD over the last nine games. He also rushed for two TD. He faces an easy schedule and should have more weapons in the passing game once Michael Crabtree signs and if Vernon Davis ever reaches his potential. Hill is a sneaky good pick in the 11th or 12th round as a backup (or as part of a QBBC).

5. Chansi Stuckey, WR, Jets
As a rookie, Stuckey burst on the scene in 2008, posting 12-122-3 in his first three games, then proceeded to put up just 20-237-0 over the next 11 games. With Laveranues Coles gone, the Jets’ WR2 spot is open, and Stuckey appears to be the one to fill that role, at least for now. David Clowney is also a factor, but he’s been plagued by drops and is now looking like he’ll come in when the team needs a deep threat. Stuckey has good hands and agility, so he has the makings of a pretty good WR.

6. Jason Avant, WR, Eagles
While rookie Jeremy Maclin has struggled with fumbles in the return game, Avant has emerged as the WR most likely step in for Kevin Curtis as he battles a knee injury. Avant went for 5-92 against the Jaguars last week and with the way that Donovan McNabb likes to spread the ball around, he could be an effective WR in PPR leagues as long as he’s getting consistent playing time.

7. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
He’s supposedly going to split time with Donald Lee, but Finley is far more explosive in the passing game and the Packers will use him there. He has been tearing it up at camp, posting 7-74-2 in the last two preseason games. He’s flying under the radar, but is a nice upside guy to draft in the final rounds as a TE2.

8. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
For a while, it looked like the rookie was going to struggle to have much of an impact this season, but after a 144-yard, two-TD effort in the Giants’ third preseason game, Nicks seems primed to see a lot of playing time for a team in desperate need of someone to step it up at WR. This, coupled with Domenik Hixon’s drop-turned-INT bodes well for Nicks.

9. Troy Williamson, WR, Jaguars
Williamson has failed fantasy owners over the years, but the Jags are hurting at WR and he has had a great preseason. He’s a significant deep threat, so if he can continue to hold onto the ball, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be the Jags’ Week 1 starter opposite Torry Holt (who is struggling to gain separation). Right now, he leads the league in preseason receiving yards, and that’s a good sign.

10. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
Bush is pushing Justin Fargas, but it’s not clear how his role would relate to Darren McFadden, who is the Raiders’ true RB1. Oakland will likely use McFadden like Reggie Bush, which means that Michael Bush could play the Deuce McAllister/Pierre Thomas role and get most of the work between the tackles. The only problem is that the Raiders’ offense is not nearly as productive as the Saints’, so Bush’s goal line opportunities will be limited. Still, if he’s the top guy behind McFadden, and McFadden goes down…well, you can do the math.

I’m playing in nine or ten leagues this year, and one thing I’m noticing as I get deeper and deeper into my drafts is that Marshawn Lynch is consistently undervalued this preseason.

Here’s what I wrote as part of our fantasy preview:

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Then I had to choose amongst Lynch, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush in Round 4 of my Industry Insiders Draft…

Of the three, Bush is the most productive on a per game basis in PPR leagues, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons and just isn’t as dependable as the other two guys. I ran the numbers for Grant and Lynch, and Grant has averaged 14.1 ppg since he became the starter in Green Bay while Lynch has averaged 15.1 ppg in his two seasons in the league. Lynch is more involved in the Buffalo passing game, so that helps his overall numbers.

Then there’s the whole three-game suspension thingy, which is the reason that Lynch is available in the fourth round in the first place. Otherwise, he’d likely be a late first round or early second round pick. Last year, we saw two players — Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall — see their stock fall in the preseason due to suspension and proceed to light it up once they returned. Marshall finished as WR4 after missing the first game and Smith finished as WR10 after missing the first two.

I took a closer look at the schedules of Grant and Lynch and found that Lynch had a distinct advantage over the last 13 games. In fact, Lynch projects to face the second easiest schedule of any running back over that span. This, combined with Grant’s struggles last season and Lynch’s overall superior productivity, convinced me to draft the Buffalo RB at 4.05. Sure, I’ll have to burn a middle round pick on Lynch’s backup (Fred Jackson), but I think it’s worth it to lock up Lynch after his suspension is over.

I also won Lynch in a slow auction league, where he went for a very reasonable price of $30 when guys like Grant, Bush and Darren McFadden all went for $49+. Bush and McFadden are injury concerns and Lynch has produced more consistently than Grant has (though I do like these other players).

Obviously, the three-game suspension is a little off putting to some owners, but they’re being shortsighted. Sure, he’s going to miss a quarter of the fantasy regular season and a fifth of the full fantasy season, but for the price of a 4th or 5th rounder, you can get a RB that will produce at a late-first/early-second round level. The first three weeks of the year might be a little precarious, but it’s before the byes start, so if owners have an option of a flex position or if they manage to draft Jackson, then they should be just fine.

There was some talk about Fred Jackson possibly stealing the job during the suspension, but Lynch took the majority of first team snaps throughout the preseason, so I don’t think there’s much to worry about on that front.

Once Lynch returns to face a very easy schedule, his owners will have a distinct advantage for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

After news of the suspension broke, a fellow owner in my slow auction league nominated him for bidding. I won him for $21, which was 5% of my total payroll (or about two-thirds his pre-suspension value). Here’s what Joe Bryant (of Footballguys.com) had to say in a recent email:

Marshall will probably fall out of the top 100 picks in most drafts now. We would still take a chance on him around the 9th/10th round range in PPR leagues, because if this really goes completely sour, you can cut him for the WW flavor of the week, but if he straightens out, he’ll be the rare top 20 WR you can get out of the top 100.

But this hasn’t been the case, at least not yet. According to Antsports, in 12-team redraft leagues from 8/29-8/31, his ADP dropped from the late third into the early fifth. I had a keeper league that drafted this Sunday, and Marshall went in the middle of the sixth. (I realize that in a keeper league, his value will be somewhat higher because of his long-term value in the league.)

Other owners are going to be scared off by Marshall’s ridiculously bad offseason. But the bottom line is that he’s in a contract year, and if he wants to score a big payday, he’s going to need to show up and act like a professional. At least this what I hope his agent is telling him on a daily basis during his suspension.

There are some indications that the Broncos are willing to work with Marshall this year. The suspension itself was only for the preseason, and if he behaves, he could very well be on the field for the team’s opener. This is a clear sign that the Broncos value Marshall and what he can do for the team. They are not yet at the point where he’s too much of a headache to deal with. Moreover, Josh McDaniels spoke about the situation at the most recent preseason game and he seemed optimistic about the WR’s short-term future.

The driving force behind Marshall’s future is Marshall himself. If he wants a fat contract, he needs to shut his mouth and play out his current deal. If he performs up to his usual standard, some team will forget about all of this and will give him the kind of contract he’s looking for. From a fantasy point of view, this makes Marshall a risk, but a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. If he realizes his situation, swallows his pride, and acts like a professional, he can get the kind of money he wants. This is why I’m optimistic about Brandon Marshall in 2009.

Given what we know right now, his ADP of 5.05 sounds about right. I’d take him after Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, but before Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss.

Of course, he could completely flake out and get suspended for the entire season, a la Keyshawn Johnson.

Don’t you love fantasy football?