Looking for QB help? Call on Shaun Hill.
Posted by John Paulsen (09/07/2009 @ 1:35 pm)

Shaun Hill recently beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB gig in San Francisco, but his Average Draft Position (ADP) hasn’t risen all that much. He’s still available in roughly 85% of ESPN’s fantasy leagues, and is a nice pickup for fantasy owners looking to bolster their QB position.
Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year’s QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.
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Industry Insiders Fantasy League: Rounds 11-20
Posted by John Paulsen (09/07/2009 @ 11:26 am)

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.
My team so far: 1. Chris Johnson, 2. Steve Smith, 3. Ronnie Brown, 4. Marshawn Lynch, 5. Santana Moss, 6. Tony Romo, 7. Greg Olsen, 8. Jerricho Cotchery, 9. Fred Jackson, 10. Percy Harvin
With the bulk of my starters covered, I entered the last half of my draft planning to load up on backups at the skill positions before grabbing a couple of defenses for a DTBC and a kicker to round out my roster. Here’s a quick rundown of the remainder of my draft.
Round 11, Pick 8: Ben Roethlisberger, QB
I was pleased to find Big Ben still available in the 11th round. Fantasy-wise, he struggled last year (QB16) but finished strong and led the Steelers to a Super Bowl victory. In 2007, he finished as QB6, and with a much easier schedule this season, I think he has a great chance to finish in the top 10. Besides, I like it that he looks like Will Ferrell after a weekend bender in Las Vegas.
Round 12, Pick 5: Steve Smith (NYG), WR
I felt pretty good (but not great) about my WR corps of Steve Smith (CAR), Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery and Percy Harvin, so I was looking for a dependable PPR guy here. I expect that Smith will lead the Giants in receptions this season by catching all of the underneath stuff. This is a dangerous pick, however, because I’m sure I’ll plug the wrong Steve Smith in at least once this season.
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Fantasy football quick-hitters
Posted by John Paulsen (09/07/2009 @ 10:18 am)
Arnaz Battle pushing Josh Morgan for starting job?
Morgan has been one of my favorite sleepers, but his preseason has been pretty lackluster though he still holds onto the starting gig. Battle is a guy who always seems to produce in PPR formats, though he’s less of an impact player and more of a possession WR.
Willie Parker will be the Steelers’ feature back.
HC Mike Tomlin said of Parker that he is “our runner,” the implication being that he’s not going to be splitting carries with the other RBs in Pittsburgh. If this plays out in Week 1, it’s an obvious boost to Parker’s stock.
Chaz Schilens could return as early as Week 2.
He was one of my favorite sleepers, and now he’s back on the radar. Pick him up if you have a spot.
Greg Camarillo the starter in MIA?
This position battle has been fluid all preseason with Camarillo, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess all holding the lead at times. If Camarillo is indeed the starter, he’s worth a spot in PPR leagues.
Jay Cutler has “most faith” in TE Greg Olsen.
Olsen looks primed for a breakout season. Cutler loves to throw to his TE, and there aren’t too many options in the Chicago passing game.
Chris Henry, a sleeper no longer
Posted by John Paulsen (09/04/2009 @ 11:38 am)

Over the course of his tumultuous four-year career, Chris Henry has caught a TD every 5.6 passes. That’s a better ratio than Randy Moss (6.2), Terrell Owens (6.8) and Jerry Rice (7.3), in his 49er days. There has never been any doubt that the lanky 6′4″ Henry had all the tools to be a star, but he just couldn’t stay out of trouble.
According to ESPN, it was the NFL’s disciplinary policy that helped Henry see the light. He should know — he has been suspended for 14 games over the last three seasons.
“Yeah, it helped me,” Henry said, according to USA Today. “It helped me focus up, and it made me realize that if I continually wanted to play, I had to do right and be a professional.”
Since the Bengals drafted him in 2005 out of West Virginia, he’s faced charges of marijuana possession, carrying a concealed weapon, drunken driving, providing alcohol to minors and assault.
Through four preseason games, Henry has 14 catches for 224 yards and four TD. Even though he’s playing limited snaps, if he keeps that pace up, he’s on his way to a 56-catch, 896-yard, 16-TD season. Obviously, it’s tough to expect him to catch that many touchdowns, but double digits are certainly attainable given his TD-to-catch ratio. The receptions and yards are doable, and a 56-896-10 season would result in Top 20 fantasy numbers.
There are a few things standing in Henry’s way: 1) Chad Ochocinco, who is hell bent on having a bounce-back year, 2) Laveranues Coles, who still has enough ability to earn snaps by catching all the underneath stuff, and 3) Henry’s own demons, who may resurface at any time.
Still, with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the (possible) decline of Ochocinco, the Bengals’ WR pecking order is as fluid now as it’s ever been, and if the immensely talented Henry has truly turned over a new leaf, he has the chance to break out in a big way.
From a fantasy perspective, it’s hard not to like this guy in the late-middle rounds. In my drafts, it seems like he’s the best WR on the board as early as the 8th or 9th in some cases, but owners can usually wait a bit longer to pull the trigger.
But don’t wait too long.
Fantasy Football: 10 Late Bloomers to Watch
Posted by John Paulsen (09/03/2009 @ 1:00 pm)

Usually, the term “late bloomer” is used to describe someone that raises his level of play later than usual in his career, but in this case I’m referring to guys that have become fantasy relevant late in preseason. I wasn’t thinking about these players when I put together our fantasy football preview or even when I suggested several late round WR sleepers. These guys emerged as viable fantasy players as injuries took their toll, position battles were won and depth charts were adjusted.
Maybe it’s too late to draft these players, but they’re worth considering when scouring the waiver wire for help.
In no particular order…
1. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
I really like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo in PPR leagues, but it appears that Hartline has passed both on the Miami depth chart. This is a fuzzy, fluid battle. Hartline is a deep threat as evidenced by his 56-yard grab against the Bucs last week. Reports this week have Hartline and Camarillo rotating at flanker with the first team. Given his rise, I like the rookie Hartline here, but since he plays with a weak-armed QB on a run-oriented team, he’s only worth a flier in the late rounds. 9/7 Update: Now it appears that Greg Camarillo is the starter opposite Ginn in MIA. This situation continues to be very fluid.
2. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
3. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans
Nate Washington’s hamstring injury opened the door for both these players to get off to a good start early in the season. Britt is the high upside rookie, while Gage is the under-the-radar vet. Gage appears to be the safer option at this point, because he should still be the starter when Washington returns and has always been pretty productive when healthy. In the last preseason game, he posted 6-57-1 and looks to be Kerry Collins’ go-to guy. Meanwhile, Britt has shown flashes of excellence (like his 89-yard effort in the previous game), but he still looks overwhelmed at times. If you need help early on, Gage is your man, but Britt isn’t a bad guy to stash on your bench.
4. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers
Now that it’s finally clear that he’ll be the 49ers’ starting QB, it’s safe to draft Hill in the later rounds. He was quite productive fantasy-wise in 2008, posting 227 yards and 1.4 pass TD over the last nine games. He also rushed for two TD. He faces an easy schedule and should have more weapons in the passing game once Michael Crabtree signs and if Vernon Davis ever reaches his potential. Hill is a sneaky good pick in the 11th or 12th round as a backup (or as part of a QBBC).
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Posted in: Fantasy Football
Tags: 2009 fantasy football preview, Brian Hartline fantasy, Chansi Stuckey fantasy, Fantasy Football, Fantasy football draft strategy, fantasy football sleepers, fantasy football strategy, Hakeem Nicks fantasy, Jason Avant fantasy, Jermichael Finley fantasy, Justin Gage fantasy, Kenny Britt fantasy, Michael Bush fantasy, Shaun Hill fantasy, Troy Williamson fantasy

How to ride Marshawn Lynch to a fantasy championship
Posted by John Paulsen (09/01/2009 @ 11:06 am)

I’m playing in nine or ten leagues this year, and one thing I’m noticing as I get deeper and deeper into my drafts is that Marshawn Lynch is consistently undervalued this preseason.
Here’s what I wrote as part of our fantasy preview:
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.
Then I had to choose amongst Lynch, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush in Round 4 of my Industry Insiders Draft…
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What do we do with Marshall?
Posted by John Paulsen (08/31/2009 @ 6:50 pm)

Looking at the Brandon Marshall situation with a purely fantasy eye, his suspension for the remainder of the preseason may create an environment where the troublesome wide receiver becomes a value on draft day.
After news of the suspension broke, a fellow owner in my slow auction league nominated him for bidding. I won him for $21, which was 5% of my total payroll (or about two-thirds his pre-suspension value). Here’s what Joe Bryant (of Footballguys.com) had to say in a recent email:
Marshall will probably fall out of the top 100 picks in most drafts now. We would still take a chance on him around the 9th/10th round range in PPR leagues, because if this really goes completely sour, you can cut him for the WW flavor of the week, but if he straightens out, he’ll be the rare top 20 WR you can get out of the top 100.
But this hasn’t been the case, at least not yet. According to Antsports, in 12-team redraft leagues from 8/29-8/31, his ADP dropped from the late third into the early fifth. I had a keeper league that drafted this Sunday, and Marshall went in the middle of the sixth. (I realize that in a keeper league, his value will be somewhat higher because of his long-term value in the league.)
Other owners are going to be scared off by Marshall’s ridiculously bad offseason. But the bottom line is that he’s in a contract year, and if he wants to score a big payday, he’s going to need to show up and act like a professional. At least this what I hope his agent is telling him on a daily basis during his suspension.
There are some indications that the Broncos are willing to work with Marshall this year. The suspension itself was only for the preseason, and if he behaves, he could very well be on the field for the team’s opener. This is a clear sign that the Broncos value Marshall and what he can do for the team. They are not yet at the point where he’s too much of a headache to deal with. Moreover, Josh McDaniels spoke about the situation at the most recent preseason game and he seemed optimistic about the WR’s short-term future.
The driving force behind Marshall’s future is Marshall himself. If he wants a fat contract, he needs to shut his mouth and play out his current deal. If he performs up to his usual standard, some team will forget about all of this and will give him the kind of contract he’s looking for. From a fantasy point of view, this makes Marshall a risk, but a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. If he realizes his situation, swallows his pride, and acts like a professional, he can get the kind of money he wants. This is why I’m optimistic about Brandon Marshall in 2009.
Given what we know right now, his ADP of 5.05 sounds about right. I’d take him after Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, but before Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss.
Of course, he could completely flake out and get suspended for the entire season, a la Keyshawn Johnson.
Don’t you love fantasy football?
Industry Insiders Fantasy League: Round 10
Posted by John Paulsen (08/28/2009 @ 4:40 pm)

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.
My team so far: 1. Chris Johnson, 2. Steve Smith, 3. Ronnie Brown, 4. Marshawn Lynch, 5. Santana Moss, 6. Tony Romo, 7. Greg Olsen, 8. Jerricho Cotchery, 9. Fred Jackson
Having secured Marshawn Lynch’s backup, I felt pretty good about my stable of running backs. So as the draft moved into Round 10, I was looking to bolster my WR corps by finding a diamond in the rough. Looking through my list of late-round WR gems, a couple of names stood out: Domenik Hixon and Josh Morgan. (If you’re wondering about the other guys in my top 5, Chaz Schilens and Nate Washington are injured, Ted Ginn was already drafted and Davone Bess has been usurped by Brian Hartline.) I also added Percy Harvin to my list, mainly due to this Rotoworld article which issues glowing reports about Harvin’s fantasy prospects this season.
My mind is telling me that Hixon will have the best numbers of the three, so I drafted him, right? Wrong. I ended up going with Harvin, figuring that I would end up with Hixon in several other leagues (that matter more financially), so why not go with the sexy pick instead? If Harvin blows up, I’ll look like a genius. If he flops, oh well.
Seriously, if the Vikings use him the way that the Rotoworld piece says they will, then he should have a very solid season in PPR leagues.
Round 10, Pick 5: Percy Harvin, WR
Here’s how the entire round went: 109) Laurent Robinson, 110) James Davis, 111) Carson Palmer, 112) Matt Ryan, 113) Percy Harvin, 114) Julius Jones, 115) Brett Favre, 116) Josh Morgan, 117) Sidney Rice, 118) Trent Edwards, 119) Domenik Hixon, 120) Tim Hightower
It may be a while (as this draft is ongoing), but I’ll be back after it’s complete with a quick rundown of the rest of my picks.
Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.
How five marquee players are assimilating with new teams
Posted by John Paulsen (08/28/2009 @ 1:54 pm)

For SportingNews.com, Mike Fiorio examines how five big-name players are faring with their new teams.
Jay Cutler
The Chicago Bears made a bold move earlier this year when they uncharacteristically uncorked multiple draft picks and a player for a guy not already on the team.
In so doing, they landed the best quarterback they’ve had in decades.
So far, Cutler has been a mixed bag. Rumblings of problems with linebacker Brian Urlacher didn’t help to create the right warm and/or fuzzy atmosphere. Then Cutler registered an abysmal 30.8 passer rating in the team’s first preseason game at Buffalo, completing five of ten passes with an interception.
Last week was far more encouraging, with Cutler connecting on eight of 13 attempts for 121 yards, a touchdown, and a passer rating of 117.8 against the Giants.
But the real question of whether Cutler is properly getting himself ready to be the Bears’ franchise quarterback will best be answered when he returns to Denver on Sunday night for a game against the team for which he was supposed to be the franchise quarterback deep into the next decade.
In addition to Cutler, Florio discusses Matt Cassel, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens and Albert Haynesworth.
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: Albert Haynesworth, Fantasy Football, Fantasy football draft strategy, fantasy football strategy, Jay Cutler, Jay Cutler fantasy, Matt Cassel, Matt Cassel fantasy, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. Houshmandzadeh fantasy, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens fantasy

Industry Insiders Fantasy League: Round 9
Posted by John Paulsen (08/27/2009 @ 12:24 pm)
To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.
My team so far: 1. Chris Johnson, 2. Steve Smith, 3. Ronnie Brown, 4. Marshawn Lynch, 5. Santana Moss, 6. Tony Romo, 7. Greg Olsen, 8. Jerricho Cotchery
When I took Lynch back in the 4th, I knew I was going to have to back him up with Fred Jackson, probably in the 9th. This is the downside to drafting Lynch this year. Unless you have another RB (or WR, if you’re league utilizes a flex) to start in his place for the first three weeks, you may find yourself in a tough spot. No one wants to start out the season 0-3.
That said, Jackson is one of the league’s better backups and if Lynch were to miss significant time, he could step in and be a quality fantasy starter.
Round 9, Pick 8: Fred Jackson, RB
Here’s how the entire round went: 97) Devin Hester, 98) Laveranues Coles, 99) Ahmad Bradshaw, 100) Dustin Keller, 101) Chester Taylor, 102) Michael Crabtree, 103) Willis McGahee, 104) Fred Jackson, 105) Justin Gage, 106) Ted Ginn, 107) Darren Sproles, 108) Laurence Maroney
I would have liked to nab Ginn here, but I couldn’t risk letting Jackson fall to another owner. Besides, there are still a few up-and-coming WRs that I like in the upcoming rounds.
Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.
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