Are we going to have an NFL season? Things are looking up, so hopefully we’ll be able to gear up and get ready for some football.

As part of Bullz-Eye.com’s Get real Guide, TSR’s John Paulsen has a help guide to how to draft a fantasy football team. Check it out and start get a head start!

In the world of fantasy football, we’re neck deep in no man’s land. The playoffs are over, the draft is still something fuzzy off in the distance, and there’s a rain cloud over our heads in the form of the ongoing NFL labor negotiations. But this is a great time to examine some of the traditional and non-traditional fantasy football strategies and tweak them for use in the future.

One such strategy is Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). For the neophyte, this strategy encourages the fantasy owner to wait to draft a QB on draft day until such time that he can grab two or three solid players in the mid to late rounds. In standard 12-team leagues, this usually means somewhere in the 8th to 14th rounds. If you can find two or three players whose schedules compliment each other, you can sometimes get QB5-type production at a deep discount.

Every preseason, I write a QBBC article that recommends a few combinations to fantasy owners. For the 2010 season, my top recommendation was Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Eli finished #7 in total fantasy points, while Roethlisberger finished #7 in average fantasy points even though he was suspended for the first four games. During the preseason, Eli was going in the 8th round, while Big Ben was going in the 11th, so owners who went with this duo got great production at QB on the cheap. This approach allows for owners to load up on talent at RB, WR and even TE knowing that they’ll be at least “okay” at QB.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the historical fantasy data for the QB position for the last 10 years and see if we can learn anything from it. Below you’ll find a graph that shows the total fantasy points by the Top 32 QBs as well as data for the Top 10 fantasy QBs and Next 10 (QBs #11-#20).

Read the rest of this entry »

Per Danny O’Neil of the Seattle Times:

Justin Forsett will start at running back for the Seahawks.

Forsett was quite productive last season in limited duty. He got 10+ touches in eight games and here’s how he fared:

W2, @SF: 11 touches, 92 yards
W10, @ARI: 22 touches, 149 yards, TD
W11, @MIN: 16 touches, 89 yards, TD
W12, @STL: 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD
W14, @HOU: 13 touches, 73 yards
W15, TB: 11 touches, 69 yards
W16, @GB: 15 touches, 74 yards
W17, TEN: 12 touches, 88 yards

That’s 764 yards on 122 touches or 6.3 yards per touch. Forsett isn’t a traditional every-down back, but working in tandem with Leon Washington, he should be able to handle 230-240 touches, which at his 2009 rate would equate to 1,400+ yards. If he gets that kind of workload, he’ll be a solid RB2 in PPR leagues.

The real question is — are the Seahawks committed to getting him 14+ touches a game?

If they’re not, they should be.

Adam Schefter tweeted the details:

Ravens reached agreement with former Seahawks wide receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh on a one-year, $855,000 deal. More at espn.com.

Personnel-wise, this is a strange fit, seeing as the Ravens already have a couple of talented possession-type receivers in Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. But Housh is a cheap upgrade at WR2/WR3 and he gives Joe Flacco another sure-handed route-runner.

From a fantasy standpoint, this probably hurts Derrick Mason more than Boldin, who will get his looks as the Ravens’ WR1. It gives Flacco a little boost because his receiver corps has more depth and could weather an injury to one of the aforementioned WRs.

As for Housh, he’s probably only worth a late round flyer at this point because he’s joining a new team and his role is unclear. It’s going to take him some time to get settled.

Adam Schefter is reporting that Hardesty is done for the season:

Further tests revealed what initial tests showed: Browns rookie RB Montario Hardesty has a torn ACL. Out for year.

Bad news for Hardesty is great news for Jerome Harrison owners, who will likely have a solid RB2 for the price of a 7th-9th round pick. Peyton Hillis has played well and was productive in Denver, so he will probably get some touches to keep Harrison fresh. He could also vulture some goal line work.

Still, Harrison is looking like a great value in the middle rounds and is another reason why it’s a solid strategy to grab a couple of premier WRs in the first three rounds and worry about shoring up the RB position later.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Chargers have suddenly become willing to trade Vincent Jackson by Saturday, which is a key date for all parties concerned…

Both the Chargers and, presumably, Jackson’s agents would like to have a deal done by 3 p.m. Saturday. After that, Jackson will essentially be suspended for six games. Jackson is suspended the first three games of the season due to his two DUI arrests and cannot report to a team during that suspension. He is also on the Roster Exempt List, which means he has to sit out three games after reporting.

In other words, if the Chargers trade him by Saturday, Jackson will only serve a three-game suspension since he can serve both suspensions concurrently. If they trade him after Sep. 4, he’ll have to serve a six-game suspension.

One wonders why the Chargers waited so long to get the ball rolling on a trade. They have reportedly only let the Seahawks speak to Jackson’s camp about a deal. His trade value will drop after Saturday, so why not trade him before then and get maximum value?

For fantasy owners, this is a fluid situation. Jackson has been going in the 8th, but he’s still around in the later rounds in some drafts. If the Chargers truly have changed their stance, a deal might get done quickly, because it sounds like Jackson’s camp has also lowered its asking price in terms of financial compensation.

He’s a better player than Santonio Holmes, who will miss the first four games due to suspension, but Holmes has had all of training camp to get used to the Jets’ offense and to develop a rapport with Mark Sanchez. At this point, if Jackson joins a new team, he’ll essentially be starting from square one. If he lands with a team like the Vikings, I like his chances of producing once his suspension is up due to the presence of Brett Favre, who will throw the ball up and let Jackson make a play.

Jackson is worth a flier, assuming your team is relatively strong in all areas. If you’re hurting in one area or another, don’t expect Jackson to save you.

It’s funny — when I originally hopped on the Mike Williams bandwagon a couple of weeks ago, his ADP was in the 13th round and he was still sort of flying under the radar.

A few days later, I took Williams in the 10th round of my Industry Insiders Draft:

10.03: Mike Williams, WR
This was one of those there’s-no-one-else-I-like-so-I’m-going-to-take-this-guy picks. Williams has really played well in the preseason and as a rookie, he is already the Bucs clear-cut WR1. Josh Freeman isn’t bad, and the Bucs are probably going to have to throw more than they’d like as they try to stay in games this season, so this could all add up to a top 25 year for Williams.

When I made that pick, one of the other ‘insiders’ commented, “I think that’s the earliest that I’ve seen Williams go.”

I wasn’t sure whether or not to take that as an insult, but it struck me as funny when, several days later, Williams went in the 7th round in two of my slow email drafts.

What’s the point? Well, it seems like in the world of WRs, the talent drops off a cliff at a certain point in the 7th or 8th round. Once guys like Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox and Percy Harvin go, things are starting to get tight at WR. Maybe Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are still worthy of 7th or 8th rounders in PPR leagues, but who’s left after that? Lee Evans? Bernard Berrian? Braylon Edwards? Most fantasy owners are going to pass up these retreads in favor of the upside of Williams, which means he could very well go as early as the 7th round in 12-team leagues.

That’s not to say that there aren’t still some interesting wideouts out there. Guys like Laurent Robinson, Jacoby Jones, Santonio Holmes and Louis Murphy are worthwhile picks, but not in the 7th round. Just don’t expect to land Mike Williams in the 10th round or later anymore — that ship has sailed.

Earlier in the week, I tackled the RBs and WRs, and now it’s time to discuss late season success with regard to QBs and TEs. Here are a few players that performed well down the stretch and what that success means for the upcoming fantasy season:

QUARTERBACKS

Brett Favre (285 yards, 2.1 TD over the L8 games) was terrific for the Vikings, especially down the stretch. But throw in a bum ankle and a M.I.A. Sidney Rice and things aren’t lined up quite as well for ol’ #4 in 2009. Rice is especially important considering his ability to go up and retrieve all the ill-advised bombs that Favre has a tendency to chuck up. Favre was QB8 last year and I think he’s looking at a finish in the 12-15 range this season…Ben Roethlisberger (310 yards, 1.8 TD over the L6 games) is going to be suspended for the first 4-5 games, and he’s going in the 9th or 10th round as a result. This makes him a great value for use in a QBBC, because he’s probably going to give you top 10 numbers once he starts his season…Vince Young (198 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 1.3 TD over the L8 games) had a better second half of the season than Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco, yet he’s being drafted behind all of these players (save for the retired Warner) heading into the 2010 season. He has three tough matchups to start the year, but it should be relatively smooth sailing after that.

TIGHT ENDS

Jermichael Finley‘s strong finish (5.5-72-0.5 TD over the L8 games, including the playoffs) has him poised to be a breakout star in 2010. He’s going a little early for my taste, often ahead of a far more proven option in Jason Witten, but he has tremendous upside and is a great pick in the late 4th or early 5th, after the last solid WRs (Steve Smith 1.0, Steve Smith 2.0, Wes Welker, etc.) are off the board. With Donald Driver in the twilight of his career, Finley is poised to become the Packers’ #1 or #2 option in the passing game, and that’s saying something with the way Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball…Kevin Boss (3.4-41-0.6 TD over the L9 games) was a big part of the Giants’ passing game down the stretch, especially in the red zone. If he can just stay healthy enough to post these kinds of numbers for an entire season, he could finish in the top 10. Given his late round ADP, he’s a very solid TE2 with some upside…Fred Davis (4.1-46-0.6 TD) was terrific for the Redskins after Chris Cooley‘s season-ending injury. Cooley is back now and Davis’s draft stock is in the tank, but he might be the only true TE handcuff out there. If you grab Cooley in the middle rounds, be sure to grab Davis as insurance. Donovan McNabb loves to throw to his TE and Washington is hurting at WR2, so if one guy gets the lion’s share of the targets, there’s a good chance he finishes in the top 10 at the position.

On Sunday, Mike Klis of the Denver Post said that Knowshon Moreno doesn’t look close to returning to practice:

…from here, running back Knowshon Moreno and receiver Demaryius Thomas don’t look anywhere near close to returning. Both are running and cutting very gingerly.

Considering Moreno suffered his hamstring injury Aug. 1 _ four weeks ago today _ either he’s a slow healer or he received a least a partial tear. I’m betting on the latter.

On Monday, Klis reported that Josh McDaniels ‘indicated’ Moreno would practice this week:

In his postgame comments, Broncos coach Josh McDaniels indicated starting tailback Knowshon Moreno would practice this week. Moreno’s primary backup, Correll Buckhalter, returned to practice on a limited basis last week but did not play in the preseason game Sunday night against Pittsburgh.

“I think that’s always best for a running back – same thing with (RB Correll Buckhalter) – to get hit before they actually go on to a regular-season game,” McDaniels said. “”But, if that’s not the best thing for us to do, the smartest decision to make, then we’ll probably hold off on that. We’re going to practice this week – we’ll be in pads on Tuesday and we’ll see if we can bang one or both of them around if they’re ready to go by then. We don’t have a timetable yet but both of them are getting close.”

The bit about the hamstring being a tear and not a strain is somewhat worrisome. Moreno is slipping in drafts and owners should proceed with caution. I just passed him up for Mike Sims-Walker in the late 5th, but I’d grab him in the 6th if he makes it back to me. It’s vital that anyone who picks Moreno grab his handcuff, Correll Buckhalter, who his battling his own injury at the moment. The good news is that Buck is usually around very late in drafts.

For what it’s worth, the team is listing him as probable for Week 1.

Tuesday Update: He has been cleared for practice, but Rotoworld is reporting that Moreno is telling people that he’s only at about 80% right now.

One of the numbers I look at when evaluating players, especially young or up-and-coming players, is their performance over the last half of the season. I’ve found that, typically, if a guy plays well late in the season, he will take that momentum/success into the next season.

With that in mind, here are several players at each position that played a lot better in the second half of the 2009 season than they did early on.

RUNNING BACKS

I’ve outlined Jamaal Charles‘s resume here, and I think it’s time people get back on his bandwagon…Fred Jackson (114 total ypg, 0.5 TD over the L6 games) was probably going to start for the Bills, but an injury has opened the door for C.J. Spiller, who has been electric…Jerome Harrison (198 total ypg, 1.7 TDs over the L3 games) is holding onto RB1 duties in Cleveland at this point, but rookie Montario Hardesty is back practicing and there’s a good chance that he’ll eat into Harrison’s carries…Justin Forsett (88 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L8 games) was great down the stretch for the Seahawks, but he’s mired in a three-way battle with Leon Washington and Julius Jones…Knowshon Moreno (84 total ypg, 0.8 TD over the L8 games) is the clear starter in Denver, when healthy, but he can’t seem to stay on the field…Chris Wells (73 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L11 games) is clearly the superior runner in Arizona, yet he’s still relegated to backup duties behind Tim Hightower…With the season-ending injury to Ben Tate, Arian Foster (121 total ypg, 1.5 TDs over the L2 games) has gone from an RB3-type 8th or 9th round sleeper to a bona fide RB2-quality 4th round pick.

All of these players are worth looking for on draft day, and only Forsett seems to be overvalued at this point in the preseason.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Anquan Boldin (6.1-78-0.5 over the L8 games) had a nice finish to the 2009 season, but he’s joining a new, run-oriented offense in Baltimore. I’d still expect top 20 numbers out of him, but a top 10 finish seems unlikely…Calvin Johnson (5.4-79-0.5) has all the talent in the world, but he has a spotty injury history and hasn’t much consistency at QB. With Matthew Stafford looking like the real deal, CJ is in line for a big year, assuming he stays healthy…Robert Meachem (4.1-58-0.8 over the L9 games) was dynamite for the Saints down the stretch and became something of a touchdown machine. He’s battling a toe injury right now, but assuming he’s good to go by Week 1, he should settle into the Saints’ WR2 role, which could mean a top 20 finish…The performance of Terrell Owens (4-69-0.5 over the L8 games) late in the season just goes to show that he still has some gas left in the tank. With a better QB throwing to him, he should have a solid WR3-type year…Chris Chambers (4-68-0.4) blew up after joining the Chiefs in the middle of last season. But he’s always been a fantasy tease, and with the re-emergence of freshly-out-of-the-doghouse Dwayne Bowe, he’s probably not going to post those kinds of numbers again. Still, he’d be a good WR4/WR5 bye week fill in…Michael Crabtree (4.4-57-0.2 over L11 games) sure didn’t show any ill effects from his early season holdout. His numbers were somewhat modest, but the fact that he was even able to produce at that level with no preseason work and no rapport with Alex Smith is a testament to his considerable talent. He should take a step forward into the top 20 this season…Jabar Gaffney (4.4-62-0.3 over the L7 games) appears to be the WR1 in Denver and seems to have a good relationship with Kyle Orton. He’s not going to catch a bunch of touchdowns, but he’s a worthwhile reserve in PPR leagues…Malcom Floyd (4.0-62-0.0 over the L8 games) will definitely benefit from the absence of Vincent Jackson and will take over WR1 duties in San Diego. If he gets Jackson’s targets (7.1 per game) and converts at the same rate and yardage as he did last season (59.2%, 17.2 ypc), he’s looking at an 1150-yard season…Brandon Gibson (4.3-44-0.1 over the L8 games) put up decent PPR numbers last season, but he’s listed behind Danny Amendola on the Rams’ depth chart, which means he has competition for that underneath stuff that he made a living with last season…Brian Hartline (2.7-45-0.3 over the L7 games) obviously didn’t set the world on fire, but he was consistently involved in his rookie season and now he’s locked into the starting job opposite Brandon Marshall. He could play Wes Welker to Marshall’s Randy Moss. At this point, Hartline is only worth a look in PPR leagues.