Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.

Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the strength of schedule data, and he even writes his own DTBC column (though he calls it ‘TDBC’). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.

Last year, my top recommended combination was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo’s recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a high performance scoring system), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.

Here’s how I identify the top DTBC combinations:

1. Use FBG’s SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds’ defensive projections to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.
I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don’t use Dodds’ fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won’t look the same.

2. Apply home/away adjustment.
With relation to a team’s mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.

3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.
I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 & 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.

So now I’m armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren’t enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn’t stray from these eight teams.

Here are Anthony’s rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:

1. SAN DIEGO
Combines well with: NE, CHI, MIA, IND
Anthony’s thoughts: The Chargers lost two starters from their 2009 secondary when Antonio Cromartie was traded to the Jets and Kevin Ellison was released after he was arrested on felony drug possession charges. Cromartie isn’t coming off a great year, but Nathan Vasher and Donald Strickland are unlikely to be upgrades at the corner position. The front seven is good and if Shawne Merriman is healthy it’ll be even better, but the secondary is a concern.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS
Combines well with: IND, CIN, MIA, SD, NO, NE
Anthony’s thoughts: This should be a vastly improved defense in 2010. The offseason additions of Keith Bulluck, Deon Grant, Antrel Rolle and rookies Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph were key, but they don’t hold a candle to the team’s decision to punt ’09 coordinator Bill Sheridan. His schemes didn’t match the Giants’ personnel and quite frankly, just didn’t work. While the health status of Kenny Phillips and Osi Umenyiora is of major concern, the hiring of former Bills’ DC Perry Fewell should mean that the G-Men will get back to what they do best in 2010: Getting after the quarterback.

3. NEW ORLEANS
Combines well with: NYG, CHI, MIA
Anthony’s thoughts: Coordinator Gregg Williams will once again be the key to the Saints’ success on defense, but the offseason produced more questions than answers. After completely ignoring the position during the draft, the Saints have a hole at outside linebacker now that Scott Fujita is in Cleveland. Can Jo-Lonn Dunbar take over on the strong-side? Is Darren Sharper healthy? Can youngsters Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson contribute? At least one thing’s for sure, Reggie Bush is always a major threat in the return game.

4. CINCINNATI
Combines well with: CHI, NE, NYG, MIA
Anthony’s thoughts: Led by a young core featuring Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, it’s hard not to love the Bengals’ potential on defense heading into the season. Plus, getting a healthy Antwan Odom (Achilles’ surgery) back is obviously huge for the team’s pass-rush.

5. MIAMI
Combines well with: SD, IND, NYG, CIN, CHI, NO
Anthony’s thoughts: There might not be a more productive all-around linebacker in the league than Karlos Dansby. His addition, coupled with the hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan (who was behind the Broncos’ defensive success last season) has some in the media believing that the Dolphins are legit postseason contenders again.

6. CHICAGO
Combines well with: SD, CIN, IND, NE, MIA, NO
Anthony’s thoughts: The biggest addition was obviously Julius Peppers, who should help the Bears mask their deficiencies in the secondary by generating a pass rush. Although, if Peppers decides that this is one of the years he wants to take off, then Chicago is going to be in trouble. Their secondary is a legitimate concern, but the additions of Chris Harris and Major Wright should help. Overall, this is an improved team on paper and getting a healthy Brian Urlacher (who missed virtually the entire 2009 season with an injury) back will help. But it remains to be seen if everything will come together for Da Bears.

7. NEW ENGLAND
Combines well with: SD, CHI, CIN, NYG
Anthony’s thoughts: The key to the Pats’ entire offseason was being able to reach a deal with DT Vince Wilfork. The additions of CB Devin McCourty, DE Jermaine Cunningham and LB Brandon Spikes via the draft will help, as will the return of a healthy Jerod Mayo. This isn’t a defense that stands out on paper, but nobody gets more out of his roster or his schemes than Bill Belichick.

8. INDIANAPOLIS
Combines well with: CHI, SD, NYG, MIA
Anthony’s thoughts: As usual, the Colts relied on the draft to make upgrades to their team, as opposed to free agency. They used their first three picks in April on defense to select DE Jerry Hughes, who will fortify their pass rush, LB Pat Angerer (a solid all-around playmaker) and CB Kevin Thomas, who will add depth to their secondary. It’ll take time before these youngsters have an impact, but the future is bright for Indy’s defense.

So how do we use all of this info?

According to the numbers, San Diego is part of the four top DTBCs, so look for the Chargers in the 14th or 15th round and try to pair them with New England, Miami and Chicago, in that order. Anthony likes Chicago and Miami a bit more than New England, but the Pats were DT10 last year and not much has changed. I think they have less of a downside than the Bears or Dolphins do. A SD/NYG combo is projected to score about 10-13 fewer points over the course of a season, but the Giants should be vastly improved, so those should be two quality fantasy defenses to target.

For what it’s worth, SD/NE is also FBG’s top combination, though SD/CHI and SD/MIA are not in their Top 20.

Here’s a list of each of the eight teams as well as those weeks where they are projected to score 8.0+ points:

SD: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15
NYG: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13, 15
NO: 2, 6, 7, 14 (Dodds is not high on the Saints this year.)
CIN: 4, 5, 11, 15
MIA: 1, 3, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16
CHI: 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16
NE: 3, 9, 12, 13, 16
IND: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 16

From a pure numbers standpoint, here are the 19-best combinations of these eight teams: SD/NE*, SD/CHI*, SD/MIA*, CHI/CIN*, CHI/IND, SD/IND*, CHI/NE, NYG/IND, CIN/NE*, MIA/IND*, CIN/NYG, NYG/MIA, SD/NYG, CIN/MIA*, NO/NYG, CHI/MIA, NO/CHI, NYG/NE and NO/MIA*. (Note: Asterisks indicate combos that are projected to score 30+ points in Weeks 14-16 and 20+ points in Weeks 15-16.)

The nice thing about DTBC is that there are always fallback options if part of your top combo is drafted earlier than expected. These eight teams form 19 combinations projected to post DT3-type numbers or better, so use those 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th round picks to build depth at RB or WR (or to build a QBBC) and start putting together your DTBC in the 14th round or later.

Here are our official DT rankings, by tier:

1. Jets
2. Ravens

3. Steelers
4. Vikings
5. Packers
6. Eagles
7. 49ers

8. Cowboys
9. Chargers
10. Giants
11. Saints
12. Bengals
13. Patriots

14. Dolphins
15. Bears
16. Colts

17. Titans
18. Broncos
19. Panthers
20. Cardinals
21. Redskins
22. Bills
23. Bucs
24. Falcons

25. Texans
26. Browns
27. Seahawks

28. Raiders
29. Lions
30. Jaguars
31. Chiefs
32. Rams

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.

Last year, we provided three recommended DTBCs: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.

Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a high performance scoring system, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.

Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not the first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints’ struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.

Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.

Looking ahead to this season, Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.

Here’s our methodology:

1. Take FBG’s strength of schedule for DT9 through DT27.
We included the Bengals and Browns because our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, is reasonably optimistic about the improvement those two defenses could show this year. We eliminated the top 8 defenses according to ADP – the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Vikings and Eagles – because they’re all going in the 12th round or earlier, and that’s just too soon to take a DT to be part of a committee.

2. Apply FBG’s defensive projections to SOS.
This yields a week-by-week projection for each defense.

3. Factor in home/away advantage/disadvantage.
Middling defenses play better at home. How much better? We don’t really know, but the number was 31% in 2007 and 7% in 2008, so we’re going with 7%. This will give a boost to DTBC combinations that have a majority of the games at home.

4. Run the numbers for the 171 combinations to find the top DTBC pairs.
Here the focus is not only which defenses have the best combined schedule, but also a real-world take on what kind of outlook the defenses in question have this season. For example, if the numbers show that a Team A/Team B combo is the best, but a Team A/Team C combo is comparable, and Team C has a better outlook for the season than Team B, we might recommend a Team A/Team C combo instead. That’s what we did last year (in recommending Seahawks/Bills instead of Saints/Bills since we were higher on the Seahawks than the Saints) and it worked out well.

So who came out on top?

Cowboys (DT12, 14.05) and Packers (DT13, 14.12)
The Cowboys were DT9 last year and have a similar schedule in 2009. They added defensive end Igor Olshansky and linebacker Keith Brooking in the offseason and used five of their first seven picks on the defensive side of the ball. Wade Phillips is a defensive-minded coach and always seems to get the most out of his guys. The Cowboys should be solid again this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers are switching from a 4-3 (and a rather pathetic 4-3 at that) to Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. The Packers were DT10 last year mostly because of their big play ability. (They scored 16+ points in four games.) They drafted B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the first round, and while Raji isn’t yet in camp, both players should have an impact this season. The key will be whether or not Aaron Kampman can adjust to OLB. They still have a strong secondary and a solid line, so if they can put together a pass rush and button up the run defense, they should be in for a strong year. It helps that they have a much easier schedule in 2009.

The Packers are the key to DTBC this season, as they are a part of 11 of the top 13 combinations. They combine well with the Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Redskins, so there are other options if you miss out on the Cowboys.

The Titans and Pats may already be gone, but Stalter is high on the Seahawks (undrafted), Dolphins (16.05) and Redskins (15.09) as defensive units that could take a big leap forward this season, and none of those teams will cost you much on draft day. He also thinks the Cards (14.05) will be a little better. FBG’s top recommendation (GB/ARI) came in 9th (150.4 fp) when we ran our numbers.

The other teams that combine well with the Cowboys are the Patriots, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks and the Titans. If you miss out on the Packers but land the Cowboys, the Cards, Seahawks and Bucs may be available in rounds 14-16. Stalter isn’t particularly high on the Bucs, who lost defensive genius Monte Kiffin.

The following table shows which weeks you should start which teams. Teams with an asterisk project to outscore the other team in the combo by less than a point, so as the season wears on, and it becomes clear that the other team is playing better defense and/or has a better matchup, you may want to call an audible and start them instead.

Finally, for those that aren’t comfortable with going with a DTBC – maybe your league has a small roster size and carrying two defenses for the entire year would be difficult – here are our official DT rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Philadelphia
4. San Diego
5. Chicago

6. Minnesota
7. Green Bay
8. Tennessee
9. New York Jets
10. New England
11. Dallas
12. New York Giants

13. Tampa Bay
14. Seattle
15. Arizona
16. Miami
17. Washington
18. Indianapolis

19. Buffalo
20. Jacksonville
21. Carolina
22. Oakland
23. Cleveland
24. Houston
25. Cincinnati
26. Atlanta
27. New Orleans

28. San Francisco
29. Denver
30. St. Louis
31. Detroit
32. Kansas City

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Last month we started looking at last season’s statistics for position players in fantasy football land, and today we’ll look at a position many often overlook. That’s fantasy defenses, which can sometimes put up just enough points to earn your team a victory once in a while. It’s always smart to try and grab one of the top units, although as we’ve seen before, things change, sometimes drastically, from year to year with fantasy D’s. Me? I like to grab my defense before my kicker. This list is based on point totals from one of my leagues, so keep in mind that stats vary from year to year.

1. Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens’ defense is perennially awesome, and we’ll find out for sure how much of that was due to former coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now the head honcho for the Jets. Ryan took plenty of players with him too, like LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, but the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. Reed just keeps getting better every year, and his sick nose for the ball is one reason the Ravens had a league high 26 picks. They will keep scoring low as always, but their 34 sacks last season isn’t much to get excited about. Bottom line: The Ravens won’t be a number one this year, but are still top 10.

2. Philadelphia Eagles—Sadly, coordinator Jim Johnson passed away this week, though he was on leave from the team anyway. Look for the Eagles to continue Johnson’s schemes however, which means blitz, blitz and more blitz. What that means to you is sack points, and while Brian Dawkins is now in Denver, the secondary is still strong with corners Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel and safeties Quintin Mikell and Quintin Demps. Bottom line: 48 sacks is a lot, and the Eagles may not match that in ’09, but they aren’t going to suck by any means.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers—You don’t win the Super Bowl without a stout unit, and this won finished second in the league with 51 sacks, led by two awesome linebackers, NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley. The Steelers also ranked #1 in points allowed and yard allowed, with 20 picks and three defensive scores. Bottom line: With the front seven intact, this unit may be the top defense taken in many FF drafts.

4. Tennessee Titans—If you live in Nashville like I do, you saw this team play a lot, and let me tell you….their games are pretty boring to watch. Well, unless you like 13-10 scores every week. Punishing DT Albert Haynesworth is now in Washington, but Tony Brown and Kyle Vanden Bosch are no slouches, and CB Cortland Finnegan is a ball hawk like Ed Reed. Bottom line: More boring games for me, more fantasy points for you.

5. Chicago Bears—Their 22 interceptions probably had a lot to do with the Bears finishing as high as they did in 2008, but the Monsters of the Midway with just 28 sacks? To put that in perspective, the Saints also tallied 28 sacks. And besides Brian Urlacher, go ahead try to name five players on this defense. The Bears gave up 350 points in ’08, which is over 100 more than the Titans, Steelers and Ravens. Still, it’s the Bears. Bottom line: You can pick them, but I’m only picking them as a bye week backup.

6. Tampa Bay Bucs—This is not the same unit that ranked in the top 10 in points allowed and yards allowed in 2008, with Jon Gruden gone and Raheem Morris at the helm. Derrick Brooks is gone as are Cato June and Jovan Haye, but the likes of DE Gaines Adams and the ageless CB Ronde Barber remain. How much of Gruden’s mark will be missed? Bottom line: With so much turnover in the front office and on the field, I’m not taking my chances with these guys.

7. Green Bay Packers—Everyone expected big things from the Pack in 2008, but it was their offense, led by QB Aaron Brooks and WR Greg Jennings that were the bright spots on a mediocre team. So now with new D-coordinator Dom Capers and his 3-4 in place, things will look different at Lambeau. Aaron Kampman is now an outside linebacker, and BJ Raji and AJ Hawk are left to clog up the middle. Kampman will likely have more sacks, but how will the 3-4 affect overall fantasy points? Bottom line: I’m going out on a limb—the Pack will be much better defensively, and could be a fantasy sleeper.

8. New York Jets—DT Kris Jenkins is a monster, and Rex Ryan brought along a few toys, like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, as we mentioned earlier. Eric Mangini also took some players with him to Cleveland, but the Jets will still keep scores low, rack up sacks, and score on defense (5 defensive TDs in 2008). CB Darrelle Revis had 5 picks and keeps getting better. Bottom line: Proceed with caution, but still a Top 10 D.

9. Indianapolis Colts—Even with Tony Dungy gone and Jim Caldwell running the team, the Colts still give up way too much ground on the ground. Thing is, they are opportunistic, and they have Dwight Freeney attacking the QB and a bunch of under the radar players (like LB Gary Brackett) wreaking havoc (30 forced fumbles and 5 defensive scores in 2008). Bottom line: The Colts’ D will keep them in games, meaning these guys will continue to play hard and put up decent fantasy points.

10. Minnesota Vikings—These guys are damn near as good as the Ravens, led on the line by Jared Allen and DT’s Pat and Kevin Williams (45 team sacks in 2008). 12 picks from this unit is baffling, as is allowing 333 points, but they can be better. Bottom line: The Vikes may not be a true top 10 this season, so I’d take my chances with the revamped Giants or the sack-happy Cowboys before them.

Teams that aren’t on this list you’ll want to draft: New York Giants, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins.