We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

For an explanation of Efficiency Per Minute, click here.

Over the past few weeks, I have been listing the top EPM players at each position and discussing a few of the surprises. I decided to take the next step and plot EPM versus minutes per game, figuring that the results might shed some light on who is playing the best basketball this season. After all, if you’re playing big minutes at a high level, you’re one of the best players in the league.

Below are five charts that show the EPM and MPG of the top 30 players (in terms of total minutes played) at each position. The higher the EPM, the better. The players in red were All-Stars this season.

Click on the chart for a larger view.

In terms of 2010 All-Stars, we (the fans and coaches) pretty much got it right. You could certainly make an argument for Russell Westbrook, but he wasn’t going to get a nod over Jason Kidd or Chauncey Billups. In the East, Rose was the next best point guard after Rajon Rondo. It’s interesting — according to the chart, nine of the top 11 point guards (Paul, Nash, Billups, WIlliams, Kidd, Evans, Westbrook, Davis and Curry) are in the Western Conference. Keep in mind that EPM is not pace-adjusted so teams that play up-tempo (like Golden State) will have players with slightly (+8%) inflated numbers.

Once again, it looks like the All-Stars were right on. There looks to be a pretty big dropoff in talent after Wade, Bryant, Roy, Johnson, Iggy, Ginobili and Ellis. Who is the next great young shooting guard? O.J. Mayo?

This graph illustrates just how much better LeBron James is than the competition, at least from a statistical standpoint. It looks like the All-Star picks were pretty solid.

Here’s where I’d start to make some changes to the All-Star picks. Granted, these numbers include games played after the All-Star break, but Carlos Boozer probably should have replaced Zach Randolph (or Pau Gasol) and Josh Smith should have gotten the nod over Kevin Garnett. The fans voted for KG to start.

Marc Gasol has been more productive in bigger minutes for a better team, yet Chris Kaman still got the nod. David Lee’s numbers were significantly better than Andrew Bogut’s, but the Knicks stink, while Bogut has the Bucks in the hunt for a playoff spot. Bogut could have also replaced Al Horford; Josh Smith is statistically playing better ball this season.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for centers, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Tim Duncan (0.781)
Dwight Howard (0.730)
David Lee (0.720)
Andrew Bogut (0.665)
Marcus Camby (0.644)
Nazr Mohammed (0.625)
Joakim Noah (0.620)
Samuel Dalembert (0.619)
Andrew Bynum (0.616)
Brook Lopez (0.616)

Next 5: Jefferson, M. Gasol, Shaq, Horford, Nene

Mohammed is the only player in the top 15 playing less than 20 minutes per game. He’s averaging 8-5 and almost a block per game in 17.1 minutes…Andrew Bogut is having something of a breakthrough year, averaging 16-10 with 2.3 blocks per game…Who are the bottom five Cs playing more than 25 minutes per game? 1. Ben Wallace, 2. Channing Frye, 3. Mehmet Okur, 4. Spencer Hawes and 5. Andrea Bargnani.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for power forwards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Chris Bosh (0.767)
Kevin Love (0.719)
Carlos Boozer (0.702)
Pau Gasol (0.684)
Dirk Nowitzki (0.649)
Josh Smith (0.635)
Anthony Randolph (0.631)
Amare Stoudemire (0.629)
Zach Randolph (0.628)
Kevin Garnett (0.620)

Next 5: Murphy, Blair, Landry, Odom and Scola.

Kevin Love has the highest rebound rate of any power forward in the league, but is only playing 29 minutes per game…One thing’s for sure — Anthony Randolph wasn’t getting enough minutes prior to his ankle injury. He’s obviously very talented, but doesn’t seem to be mature enough to handle the ups and downs of an NBA season…Josh Smith really stuffs the stat sheet. Not only does he post a 15-9, he also averaged 4.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks per game…Marreese Speights, Tyrus Thomas, Paul Millsap and Andray Blatche came in 16th, 17th, 18th and 21st, respectively, though Speights has only played 670 minutes this season playing behind Elton Brand…Who are the bottom five PFs playing at least 25 minutes a night? 1. Jared Jeffries, 2. Boris Diaw, 3. Jonas Jerebko, 4. Yi Jianlian and 5. Rashard Lewis. Those last three names are actually pretty surprising.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for small forwards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

LeBron James (0.827)
Kevin Durant (0.672)
Carmelo Anthony (0.644)
Corey Maggette (0.642)
Gerald Wallace (0.569)
Danny Granger (0.547)
Andrei Kirilenko (0.534)
Ersan Ilyasova (0.526)
Paul Pierce (0.492)
Kris Humphries (0.492)

Next 5: Deng, Gay, Hill, Marion, S. Jackson

Corey Maggette is one of the best in the league at getting to the line, so while seeing his name amongst the other top small forwards is a little odd, he is very good offensively (and plays for the Warriors, who really push the pace)…Ersan Ilyasova’s presence in Milwaukee more than makes up for the loss of Richard Jefferson, and has allowed the Bucks to stay competitive this season…Kris Humphries is averaging 7-5 in just 16.5 minutes per game, and should probably be getting more run…Neither Trevor Ariza (0.378) nor Ron Artest (0.375) are having particularly efficient seasons…Who are the bottom five SFs playing at least 25 minutes a night? 1. Shane Battier (the no-stats MVP), 2. Tayshaun Prince, 3. Richard Jefferson, 4. Corey Brewer and 5. Al Thornton.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for shooting guards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Dwyane Wade 0.672
Kobe Bryant 0.610
Brandon Roy 0.545
Manu Ginobili 0.545
Joe Johnson 0.522
Andre Iguodala 0.512
Mike Miller 0.488
Jason Richardson 0.465
Jamal Crawford 0.462
Vince Carter 0.452

Next 5: Martin, Harden, Morrow, Terry, D. Wright

The top 5 are the same as Hollinger’s PER rankings…Mike Miller? Hell yeah. He’s averaging 10-6-3 and is shooting 56% from the field and 56% from long range. That’s some serious efficiency…Before you ask, Monta Ellis (0.486) is listed with the point guards. He’d be #8 on the SG list, though remember, these numbers are not pace-adjusted…O.J. Mayo is #17, which doesn’t account for what he brings to the table defensively. He’s also hurt by the fact that he plays a ton of minutes (38.5), while a guy like Vince Carter puts up similar numbers in 31 minutes a game…Top rookie? James Harden, averaging 10-3-2 in 23 minutes per game…Who are the bottom five SGs getting 25+ minutes? 1. Charlie Bell, 2. Anthony Parker, 3. Rasual Butler, 4. Brandon Rush, and 5. Thabo Sefolosha.

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Man, has it been that long? Almost four years ago, I started discussing Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which is essentially the NBA’s efficiency statistic divided by the number of minutes that a guy plays. Please note that I have no idea if I invented this statistic, but I probably didn’t. Anyway, it doesn’t matter, because I don’t see anyone else using it at the moment.

I’ve always liked efficiency because it adds up all the quantitative positives that a player can post (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) while penalizing the player for missing a lot of shots or a lot of free throws, or turning the ball over. EPM takes this a step further because it allows us to compare a player getting 25 minutes per game with one that plays 35 minutes a night. John Hollinger’s PER is nice in that I don’t have to sit down and crunch the numbers, but I always found it odd that, every season, he arbitrarily sets the average at 15.00.

There are a couple of things I don’t like about EPM. First, there are always an inordinate number of centers and power forwards at the top of the EPM rankings because they’re generally closer to the basket when they shoot (resulting in more makes and fewer misses) and their secondary function (rebounds) are easier to get than a guard’s secondary function (assists). So while it is a good tool to compare players that play the same position, it’s not great for comparing a center to a point guard…but I doubt that a tool like that even exists.

Secondly, it’s not pace-adjusted. PER is. The amount of work that would go into applying a pace to each player’s numbers is mind-boggling, especially those players that change teams within a year, and I don’t think that the powers-that-be at The Scores Report want me to put that kind of time in on this topic. So keep that in mind when looking at these numbers. Lastly, I don’t like how the number looks — it’s always 0.XYZ, but it’s not a percentage like batting average, which is easily understood.

That said, I still like EPM. As futile as it is to create one number that encompasses a player’s entire game, EPM does as well as any. Defensively, it only rewards steals and blocks, so there is a large part of a player’s skill set that isn’t accounted for, but that’s true of any widely-used statistic in the NBA.

Over the next few days, I’ll run down the top 10 players at each position. I set the cutoff at 675 minutes played, figuring a player would have to play 15 minutes per contest for 45 games to make the list. Let’s start with the point guards.

Point Guards:
Chris Paul 0.723
Steve Nash 0.667
Deron Williams 0.599
Chauncey Billups 0.587
Rajon Rondo 0.572
Jason Kidd 0.542
Tyreke Evans 0.519
Gilbert Arenas 0.514
Baron Davis 0.512
Luke Ridnour 0.511

Next 5: Westbrook, Calderon, Robinson, Lowry, Rose

It’s hard to argue with the way that the first five are ranked, and the top 5 are exactly the same as how Hollinger’s PER ranks them…In a real-world ranking, Derrick Rose would certainly be higher, but if you look at his numbers, he’s only averaging 5.8 assists and 0.8 steals, and both averages are on the lower end of the elite PGs. The fact that the Bulls are the 6th-worst shooting team probably doesn’t help his assists, either…Clearly, Ridnour is high, but he is having a great year and is benefiting from playing limited minutes (22.0) largely against opponents’ bench players. But he’s shooting 47% from the field, 39% from 3PT and 92% from the charity stripe, so he has been a very efficient shooter. He and Kyle Lowry would be guys to target as placeholders for teams looking for an upgrade at the point…There is reason for Knicks fans to be optimistic about Sergio Rodriguez (0.464, PG21). He only played about 14 minutes a game this season, but he has been productive…Who are the least effective point guards playing more than 25 minutes a game? 1. Rafer Alston, 2. Derek Fisher, 3. Chris Duhon, 4. Steve Blake and 5. Kirk Hinrich.

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