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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:11:27 +0000

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:21:30 +0000

Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds:

Thursday, November 19
Dolphins +3 Over 42.5
Panthers –3 Under 42.5

Sunday, November 22
Browns +3.5 Over 38
Lions –3.5 Under 38

Bills +8.5 Over 42.5
Jaguars –8.5 Under 42.5

Steelers –10 Over 40
Chiefs +10 Under 40

Colts –1 Over 44.5
Ravens +1 Under 44.5

Falcons +6.5 Over 46.5
Giants –6.5 Under 46.5

49ers +6.5 Over 42
Packers –6.5 Under 42

Seahawks +11 Over 46
Vikings –11 Under 46

Redskins +11 Over 41
Cowboys –11 Under 41

Saints –11 Over 51
Buccaneers +11 Under 51

Cardinals –9 Over 46.5
Rams +9 Under 46.5

Jets +10.5 Over 45
Patriots –10 Under 45

Bengals –9.5 Over 36
Raiders +9.5 Under 36

Eagles –3 Over 45
Bears +3 Under 45

Monday, November 23
Titans +4.5 Over 48
Texas –4.5 Under 48

For expert picks and daily free picks, visit HSI Sports!

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Cowboys make statement in NFC East – are the Giants done?

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:02 +0000

With their 20-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys made a huge statement in the NFC East.

After squeaking by a bad Kansas City team in Week 5, Dallas went into its bye week on a mission. They emerged in Week 7 and took it to a good Falcons team at home, beating Atlanta 37-21. They took care of business at home the next week by beating Seattle 38-17 and then proved they could win on the road in a hostile environment last night.

There’s a lot of football left to be played, but the Cowboys are finally playing with some consistency under Wade Phillips. Granted, maybe nothing has changed and Dallas will go on to lose five of their next eight games and miss the playoffs. But at least for the moment, the Cowboys are playing as good as any team in the league right now.

All is certainly not lost for the Eagles following this loss, but this was a disappointing defeat after routing the Giants 40-17 last Sunday. They couldn’t sustain drives and Donovan McNabb threw two costly interceptions. With teams like the Chargers, Falcons, Giants, Broncos and Cowboys left on their schedule, the Eagles certainly have their work cut out for them in the second half.

Speaking of the Giants, with they have now lost four in a row after the Chargers came from behind in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to beat New York 21-20 on Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, but the Giants twice settled for field goals in the second half and it came back to haunt them.

Even after losing four straight, I don’t think anyone is ready to completely write off the G-Men, but what is this team’s identity is at it stumbles into its bye? The Giants have been a team that lives and dies by rushing the quarterback it’s apparent that this isn’t the same pass-rushing team that it was earlier in the year. Of course, they did rack up wins against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, so that built some false hope.

Tom Coughlin and his coaching staff has a lot to work on heading into the bye. We’ll see if the Giants can emerge from their off week ready to go, because they’ll face the Falcons, Broncos, Cowboys and Eagles in succession starting in Week 11. That’s not exactly the kind of schedule a team wants to deal with after dropping four straight.

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Should the Giants be concerned about Eli?

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:10:30 +0000

During the Giants’ five-game winning streak at the start of the season, Eli Manning didn’t have a QB rating lower than 93.5. In the Giants’ current three-game losing streak, Manning hasn’t had a QB rating higher than 61.0, which includes his 55.7 mark in New York’s embarrassing 40-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 8.

To say that Manning hasn’t been good lately would be an understatement. In the loss to Philadelphia, he was 20-of-39 for 222 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. And given how inaccurate he was most of the day, he could have been intercepted at least two more times.

In his last three games, Manning has thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns. The mistakes he’s made aren’t typical of a veteran quarterback that has a Super Bowl ring – they’re more akin to a first year starter with little to no experience. He looks like a player with zero confidence and he doesn’t appear to trust his own decision-making.

While the Giants have more issues than just Eli (the secondary has also played poorly and the team continues to struggle with injuries), they have to be concerned with his play. New York has needed him to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victories and he hasn’t. And based on the way he’s played the past three weeks, there’s serious doubt he’ll be able to break the Giants out of their funk without a lot of help from his defense and running game.

That said, it’s only been three games and while he has looked horrible in those three outing, he looked great in the first five games of the season. The problem is that the Cowboys were the only team with a winning record that the Giants have beaten this year. Eli’s impressive numbers have come against teams like the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, while he has struggled against tough opponents in the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles, respectively.

With David Carr listed on the depth chart behind Manning, the Giants won’t consider a QB change. But the entire team better start picking up their play before the season starts to slip away from them, and it all starts with Eli.

Cardinals starting to build momentum

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:36:41 +0000

Last season, all the Arizona Cardinals heard about was how they couldn’t win on the road, they couldn’t play defense in crunch time and they couldn’t win a game at night when the moon was in full view and there were precisely 50,139 visible stars in the sky and not 49,349.

On Sunday night, the Cardinals went into Giants Stadium and beat New York, 24-17. It was Arizona’s third road victory of the season in as many tries and its third straight win since its 1-2 start. The Cards won largely with defense, as they forced four turnovers, including three Eli Manning interceptions.

Down 24-17 with less than five minutes remaining, the Giants had two opportunities to tie the game. But Arizona’s defense stymied them twice — once after Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled at midfield and another when Antrel Rolle intercepted Manning along the sideline to end New York’s chances.

Pundits were ready to crown the 49ers the new NFC West champs after their 3-1 start, but they look awfully overrated these days after two straight losses. Suddenly, everyone is fixing their eyes on the Cardinals again.

They still can’t run the ball and their passing attack doesn’t seem as potent as it was last year, but the Cards currently have the best run defense in the league and their running game is starting to show signs of life with rookie Beanie Wells. If they can continue to play defense the way they did last night in East Rutherford, they’ll once again become the team to beat in the NFC West. (If they haven’t already.)

It’s hard to figure out what kind of team the Giants are right now. They’ve been decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and just like most teams, they can’t overcome turnovers and still eek out victories.

It might be a good idea to take a wait-and-see approach with the G-Men. It stands to reason that if this team was healthy they could have beaten the Cardinals last night, although again, they weren’t going to overcome four turnovers – not even with all of their defensive starters. And I don’t want to take anything away from the Cardinals, because they played more inspired and executed better in the second half. They deserved to win.

It stands to reason that this is a good Giants team trying to cope with injuries and make it through a rough part of their schedule the best they can. But unfortunately for them, things don’t get any easier. They play at Philadelphia next week and are home against San Diego before their bye in Week 10. After their bye, they face Atlanta t home, at Denver and then home against Dallas and Philadelphia.

They better get healthy in a hurry.

Is there such a thing as a “clutch” QB?

John Paulsen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:15:35 +0000

The answer is “no,” according to Football Outsiders (via ESPN The Mag), with one possible exception.

They looked at NFL passer rating and their own metrics and there was “no year-to-year correlation in the difference between a quarterback’s overall performance and his performance when the game was on the line.” Good QBs were good in the clutch (with the score within seven points in the fourth quarter or OT) and bad QBs were bad in the clutch.

But there was one exception: Eli Manning. He is the only active QB who has a higher rating (albeit a small improvement most seasons) in crunch time for five straight years.

The best team in the NFL routs Giants

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:50:11 +0000

The New Orleans Saints are the best team in the NFL. Not just the NFC, but in the entire league. And if you disagree, then make sure you watch the highlights of the Saints’ beat down of the Giants on Sunday.

In what was supposed to be a battle of the two best teams in the NFC, the Saints absolutely guerrilla-smacked the Giants 48-27 at the Superdome. Soon-to-be MVP winner Drew Brees was brilliant, completing 23 of his 30 passing attempts for 369 yards and four touchdowns. He finished with a QB rating of 156.8.

The Giants turned the ball over twice and had nine penalties that totaled 110 yards, but this wasn’t a matter of New York shooting itself in the foot. New Orleans was just flat out better in all facets of the game. The stepped on the Giants’ throats and kept it there for four quarters.

For years, the one thing that had been missing for this Saints team was a stellar defense to go along with their explosive offense. Now now they have one under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and we’re finally seeing what this team is capable of. New Orleans limited the Giants to only 84 rushing yards, 241 passing and as previously noted, they also caused two turnovers and sacked Eli Manning twice.

Speaking of sacks, the Giants’ explosive pass-rush was limited to just one today. ONE. The Saints have one of the more underrated offensive lines in the league, which is something that is often overlooked when pundits gush about Brees and Sean Payton’s offense. One of the keys for the Giants today was being able to generate pressure on Brees and they couldn’t. New Orleans’ offensive line was that good and it doesn’t even have Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown, who was placed on injured reserve in late September after he had to have sports hernia surgery.

As for the Giants, they saw today just how behind they are to the best team in the league. They certainly don’t have to go back to the drawing board, but they tried to match wits with another elite team and got their asses handed to them. They better get healthy defensively and figure out how to wake up Brandon Jacobs or else they won’t last in the postseason. Today was certainly a wake up call for the G-Men.

I don’t think any NFC team can beat the Saints in the Superdome. If they earn the top seed in the NFC, they will be on the fast track to the Super Bowl.