2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

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2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

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Cowboys make statement in NFC East – are the Giants done?

With their 20-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys made a huge statement in the NFC East.

After squeaking by a bad Kansas City team in Week 5, Dallas went into its bye week on a mission. They emerged in Week 7 and took it to a good Falcons team at home, beating Atlanta 37-21. They took care of business at home the next week by beating Seattle 38-17 and then proved they could win on the road in a hostile environment last night.

There’s a lot of football left to be played, but the Cowboys are finally playing with some consistency under Wade Phillips. Granted, maybe nothing has changed and Dallas will go on to lose five of their next eight games and miss the playoffs. But at least for the moment, the Cowboys are playing as good as any team in the league right now.

All is certainly not lost for the Eagles following this loss, but this was a disappointing defeat after routing the Giants 40-17 last Sunday. They couldn’t sustain drives and Donovan McNabb threw two costly interceptions. With teams like the Chargers, Falcons, Giants, Broncos and Cowboys left on their schedule, the Eagles certainly have their work cut out for them in the second half.

Speaking of the Giants, with they have now lost four in a row after the Chargers came from behind in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to beat New York 21-20 on Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, but the Giants twice settled for field goals in the second half and it came back to haunt them.

Even after losing four straight, I don’t think anyone is ready to completely write off the G-Men, but what is this team’s identity is at it stumbles into its bye? The Giants have been a team that lives and dies by rushing the quarterback it’s apparent that this isn’t the same pass-rushing team that it was earlier in the year. Of course, they did rack up wins against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, so that built some false hope.

Tom Coughlin and his coaching staff has a lot to work on heading into the bye. We’ll see if the Giants can emerge from their off week ready to go, because they’ll face the Falcons, Broncos, Cowboys and Eagles in succession starting in Week 11. That’s not exactly the kind of schedule a team wants to deal with after dropping four straight.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Should the Giants be concerned about Eli?

During the Giants’ five-game winning streak at the start of the season, Eli Manning didn’t have a QB rating lower than 93.5. In the Giants’ current three-game losing streak, Manning hasn’t had a QB rating higher than 61.0, which includes his 55.7 mark in New York’s embarrassing 40-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 8.

To say that Manning hasn’t been good lately would be an understatement. In the loss to Philadelphia, he was 20-of-39 for 222 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. And given how inaccurate he was most of the day, he could have been intercepted at least two more times.

In his last three games, Manning has thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns. The mistakes he’s made aren’t typical of a veteran quarterback that has a Super Bowl ring – they’re more akin to a first year starter with little to no experience. He looks like a player with zero confidence and he doesn’t appear to trust his own decision-making.

While the Giants have more issues than just Eli (the secondary has also played poorly and the team continues to struggle with injuries), they have to be concerned with his play. New York has needed him to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victories and he hasn’t. And based on the way he’s played the past three weeks, there’s serious doubt he’ll be able to break the Giants out of their funk without a lot of help from his defense and running game.

That said, it’s only been three games and while he has looked horrible in those three outing, he looked great in the first five games of the season. The problem is that the Cowboys were the only team with a winning record that the Giants have beaten this year. Eli’s impressive numbers have come against teams like the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, while he has struggled against tough opponents in the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles, respectively.

With David Carr listed on the depth chart behind Manning, the Giants won’t consider a QB change. But the entire team better start picking up their play before the season starts to slip away from them, and it all starts with Eli.

Cardinals starting to build momentum

Last season, all the Arizona Cardinals heard about was how they couldn’t win on the road, they couldn’t play defense in crunch time and they couldn’t win a game at night when the moon was in full view and there were precisely 50,139 visible stars in the sky and not 49,349.

On Sunday night, the Cardinals went into Giants Stadium and beat New York, 24-17. It was Arizona’s third road victory of the season in as many tries and its third straight win since its 1-2 start. The Cards won largely with defense, as they forced four turnovers, including three Eli Manning interceptions.

Down 24-17 with less than five minutes remaining, the Giants had two opportunities to tie the game. But Arizona’s defense stymied them twice — once after Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled at midfield and another when Antrel Rolle intercepted Manning along the sideline to end New York’s chances.

Pundits were ready to crown the 49ers the new NFC West champs after their 3-1 start, but they look awfully overrated these days after two straight losses. Suddenly, everyone is fixing their eyes on the Cardinals again.

They still can’t run the ball and their passing attack doesn’t seem as potent as it was last year, but the Cards currently have the best run defense in the league and their running game is starting to show signs of life with rookie Beanie Wells. If they can continue to play defense the way they did last night in East Rutherford, they’ll once again become the team to beat in the NFC West. (If they haven’t already.)

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Is there such a thing as a “clutch” QB?

The answer is “no,” according to Football Outsiders (via ESPN The Mag), with one possible exception.

They looked at NFL passer rating and their own metrics and there was “no year-to-year correlation in the difference between a quarterback’s overall performance and his performance when the game was on the line.” Good QBs were good in the clutch (with the score within seven points in the fourth quarter or OT) and bad QBs were bad in the clutch.

But there was one exception: Eli Manning. He is the only active QB who has a higher rating (albeit a small improvement most seasons) in crunch time for five straight years.

The best team in the NFL routs Giants

The New Orleans Saints are the best team in the NFL. Not just the NFC, but in the entire league. And if you disagree, then make sure you watch the highlights of the Saints’ beat down of the Giants on Sunday.

In what was supposed to be a battle of the two best teams in the NFC, the Saints absolutely guerrilla-smacked the Giants 48-27 at the Superdome. Soon-to-be MVP winner Drew Brees was brilliant, completing 23 of his 30 passing attempts for 369 yards and four touchdowns. He finished with a QB rating of 156.8.

The Giants turned the ball over twice and had nine penalties that totaled 110 yards, but this wasn’t a matter of New York shooting itself in the foot. New Orleans was just flat out better in all facets of the game. The stepped on the Giants’ throats and kept it there for four quarters.

For years, the one thing that had been missing for this Saints team was a stellar defense to go along with their explosive offense. Now now they have one under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and we’re finally seeing what this team is capable of. New Orleans limited the Giants to only 84 rushing yards, 241 passing and as previously noted, they also caused two turnovers and sacked Eli Manning twice.

Speaking of sacks, the Giants’ explosive pass-rush was limited to just one today. ONE. The Saints have one of the more underrated offensive lines in the league, which is something that is often overlooked when pundits gush about Brees and Sean Payton’s offense. One of the keys for the Giants today was being able to generate pressure on Brees and they couldn’t. New Orleans’ offensive line was that good and it doesn’t even have Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown, who was placed on injured reserve in late September after he had to have sports hernia surgery.

As for the Giants, they saw today just how behind they are to the best team in the league. They certainly don’t have to go back to the drawing board, but they tried to match wits with another elite team and got their asses handed to them. They better get healthy defensively and figure out how to wake up Brandon Jacobs or else they won’t last in the postseason. Today was certainly a wake up call for the G-Men.

I don’t think any NFC team can beat the Saints in the Superdome. If they earn the top seed in the NFC, they will be on the fast track to the Super Bowl.

NFL MVP Power Rankings

Some of the candidates for NFL MVP strengthened their case last weekend and some did not. Of course, some also were on bye, maybe hurting their chances but not helping the ones ahead of them who had poor performances. Here is an update on the MVP power rankings through Week 5…

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Manning did nothing to hurt his standing here against Tennessee last Sunday, throwing for 309 yards with 3 more TDs, and leading his team to a 5-0 mark going into the bye week.

2. Eli Manning, New York Giants—Remember all the talk about how this guy wasn’t worth his huge new contract? Well, little brother is making his own case for MVP with a 111.7 QB rating, second only to Peyton, and 10 TDs to just 2 picks. And he only played two quarters last Sunday with a bad foot and still turned in a near-perfect performance. Dude is on fire.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—He wasn’t as flashy against the Rams after that emotional win over Green Bay, but the fact remains that the Vikings would not be 5-0 without Favre, and that’s the definition of MVP.

4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He was already having an MVP season but then added a fumble return for a TD last Sunday. He’s at least the best defensive player this year.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—With all due respect to Adrian Peterson, Cedric does not have Steve Hutchinson to run behind and he’s currently leading the NFL in rushing with 487 yards, and has 3 scores.

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Saints; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Antwan Odom, Bengals, Matt Ryan, Falcons; Steve Smith, Giants

2009 NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 6

Giants (5-0) at Saints (4-0), 1:00PM ET
Hopefully readers will give me credit for attempt to predict the toughest games this week. No? All right then…This is by far the hardest game to predict on the Week 6 schedule, so let’s look at some of the facts. The Saints should be well rested coming off a bye and are playing at home. They have the edge then right? They should, but don’t forget that the Giants essentially had a bye themselves since they played Oakland last week and New York always travels well. Drew Brees hasn’t seen a pass rush as good as the Giants’ all season and I think New York will disrupt his rhythm. And while Darren Sharper and the New Orleans defense is playing out of their minds right now, Eli Manning won’t make the same mistakes rookie Mark Sanchez did two weeks ago when the Saints earned a victory against the Jets. I like Brandon Jacobs to get back on track and for the G-Men to pull off a huge win at the Superdome.
Odds: Saints –3.
Prediction: Giants 27, Saints 24.

Ravens (3-2) at Vikings (5-0), 1:00PM ET
So, are the Ravens just in a slump or were they overrated to begin with? Give yourself a gold star if you answered, “A little of both.” Baltimore lost several defensive starters and their coordinator Rex Ryan in the offseason – they were due to have a setback at some point. While I think the Ravens are a solid football team, I don’t like this matchup for them. They’re reeling after two straight losses and play an unfamiliar foe in a hostile environment. I also don’t like the matchup between the Ravens’ receivers and the Vikings’ corners and wonder how Joe Flacco will do once Ray Rice and the running game is shut down by Minnesota’s Williams Wall. As long as Brett Favre doesn’t get turnover-happy for the first time this year, I like the Vikings to remain undefeated.
Odds: Vikings –3.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Ravens 17.

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Shockey looking for revenge this weekend

Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey still has a bitter taste in his mouth from his days as a Giant, writes the New York Daily News. The Saints will host the Giants this Sunday at the Superdome.

Shockey gets his shot at revenge when the undefeated Saints and Giants meet Sunday in the Superdome. The defense should expect plenty of yapping from him. The Giants were thrilled to dump Shockey, who had become a divisive malcontent, and Saints coach Sean Payton, his offensive coordinator with the Giants in his rookie year, was glad to hand over second- and fifth-round picks right before training camp in 2008.

Shockey had been one of the faces of the franchise. But whether it was a bruised ego when the Giants won the Super Bowl without him or a feeling he was disrespected by management or money, it was clear his act had grown stale in New York and he forced his way out of town.

Shockey told the New Orleans Times-Picayune in yesterday’s editions that he had a “bitter taste in my mouth,” from his Giants days. “It’s just something that if you cross me once – it’s hard enough to gain my trust as it is – and if you lie to me and if you say something behind closed doors between that person and myself …

“I needed change in my life,” he said.

He had a blowup with GM Jerry Reese during a minicamp in June of ‘08 and that made it impossible for him to return. He is happy and healthy in New Orleans after he was injured for much of last season, playing in 11 games and catching 50 passes with no TDs. In the Saints’ 4-0 start, he leads the Saints with 18 catches and also has two touchdowns. He is the third receiving option for Drew Brees after Marques Colston and Reggie Bush.

One of the things that always stood out to me about the Giants’ Super Bowl run a couple years ago was that Manning had so much success in the playoffs without having Shockey at his disposal. That was just one example of why individual players – no matter how talented they may be – will never be more important than the team.

Shockey has little right to be bitter with the Giants and he should just be happy with his new surroundings. Payton loves him in New Orleans, which is a perfect fit for his skill set. He should use his motivation in helping his team win this Sunday and not let his anger cloud his focus.

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