While we muddle through another lockout, it’s not a bad time to take a look back at the top performers at each position in terms of Efficiency Per Game (EPG) and Efficiency Per Minute (EPM). Here are the top 10 in EPG at each position; only players who played 41+ games qualify.

The point guard list looks pretty solid; Ray Felton chimes in at #10 after a strong start with the Knicks…Westbrook’s efficiency stats look great because he’s really an off guard who is playing point guard. It’s important to consider assists and turnovers when evaluating point guards…John Wall makes the list in his rookie season — not bad considering how tough it is to learn to play the position in the NBA…At SG, it’s interesting to note how thin the position is these days — just look at Stephen Jackson making the list with 15.0 EPG and a very mediocre EPM…Andre Iguodala is very solid all-around off guard and these numbers don’t even reflect how good of a defender he is.

No surprise at 1/2 with LeBron James and Kevin Durant at small forward…No surprises really until #9 and #10 with Dorell Wright (who had a nice season for a bad Warriors team) and Wilson Chandler (whose numbers were boosted by his start with the Knicks)…Considering the Bobcats pretty much gave him away, Gerald Wallace comes in strong at #6…The power forward list is solid with Kevin Love surprisingly dominating both categories. In fact, he had the highest EPM in the league, which makes the fact that he came off the bench earlier in his career all the more unbelievable…How good can Blake Griffin be?

Howard dominates the position but still can’t shoot free throws or convert in the post in crunch time…This list is a good snapshot of the position…The Nuggets need to re-sign Nene Hilario to stabilize the frontcourt and build on the team’s good play at the end of last season. He is a quality big man when healthy…Andrew Bynum’s EPM is the third-highest at his position, but the big question with him are those knees…Andrew Bogut posted the 5th-best EPG despite dealing with a recovering elbow.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

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I keep hearing that Rudy Fernandez is unhappy with the amount of playing time he has been getting in Portland, and that he’s angling for a trade to a team where he’ll have an opportunity to play more minutes.

Fine. But does he deserve to play more minutes?

In 2008-09, he averaged 25.5 minutes per game. In 2009-10, that number fell to 23.2. In order to determine if Fernandez should get starter’s minutes (which I define as around 28 min per game), I parsed out those games where he played 28+ minutes to see if he played any better with that much run. Here’s what I found:

Obviously, his numbers are going to go up the more minutes he plays, so the key numbers to look at are his shooting percentages and his Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which provides a good overview of what Fernandez brings to the table statistically on a per minute basis. He does play about 8% better (in terms of per minute stats) when he gets 28+ minutes per game. But that’s to be expected, assuming a player is in good physical shape and can play extra minutes. The more minutes you play the more comfortable you are, and the more comfortable you are, the better you’ll play.

However, his EPM of .400 in starter’s minutes is not particularly good. There are 53 shooting guards and small forwards that averaged 28+ minutes per game this season, and the group’s average EPM was .458. Fernandez would rank #38 (or in the 30th percentile) if he were included in this group, just ahead of guys like O.J. Mayo, Richard Jefferson, Rip Hamilton, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes and Eric Gordon.

Looking only at shooting guards, Fernandez’s performance in 28+ minutes would trail John Salmons (.401), Ray Allen (.426), Jason Terry (.431) and Anthony Morrow (.432).

Moreover, he ranks ahead of several players — Ronnie Brewer, Courtney Lee, Ron Artest and Thabo Sefolosha — who are known more for their defense than anything they produce offensively or statistically. Fernandez’s defense is considered to be mediocre at best.

So to answer the question posed in the title of this post — no, he does not deserve to start, at least not for a playoff team. Virtually everyone who ranks below him in EPM plays for a lottery team or is known more for their defense than their offense.

He may very well get his wish and find a new home, but the chances of him finding a situation where he’s going to get starter’s minutes on a playoff-caliber team certainly seem slim.

His coach, Nate McMillan, sums it up pretty well:

“The thing about it, anybody in the league can use him,” McMillan said. “He’s a good player. He’s a rotational player. For some teams, he’s going to be able to start. For some teams, he’s going to have to come off the bench. If he goes to Boston, he’s probably coming off the bench behind one of those guys, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. So it just depends on where he goes as far as his role and how he would play. But his talent, there are a lot of teams that can use him and take advantage of what he does. But we’ll see what happens.”

For an explanation of Efficiency Per Minute, click here.

Over the past few weeks, I have been listing the top EPM players at each position and discussing a few of the surprises. I decided to take the next step and plot EPM versus minutes per game, figuring that the results might shed some light on who is playing the best basketball this season. After all, if you’re playing big minutes at a high level, you’re one of the best players in the league.

Below are five charts that show the EPM and MPG of the top 30 players (in terms of total minutes played) at each position. The higher the EPM, the better. The players in red were All-Stars this season.

Click on the chart for a larger view.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for centers, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Tim Duncan (0.781)
Dwight Howard (0.730)
David Lee (0.720)
Andrew Bogut (0.665)
Marcus Camby (0.644)
Nazr Mohammed (0.625)
Joakim Noah (0.620)
Samuel Dalembert (0.619)
Andrew Bynum (0.616)
Brook Lopez (0.616)

Next 5: Jefferson, M. Gasol, Shaq, Horford, Nene

Mohammed is the only player in the top 15 playing less than 20 minutes per game. He’s averaging 8-5 and almost a block per game in 17.1 minutes…Andrew Bogut is having something of a breakthrough year, averaging 16-10 with 2.3 blocks per game…Who are the bottom five Cs playing more than 25 minutes per game? 1. Ben Wallace, 2. Channing Frye, 3. Mehmet Okur, 4. Spencer Hawes and 5. Andrea Bargnani.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for power forwards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Chris Bosh (0.767)
Kevin Love (0.719)
Carlos Boozer (0.702)
Pau Gasol (0.684)
Dirk Nowitzki (0.649)
Josh Smith (0.635)
Anthony Randolph (0.631)
Amare Stoudemire (0.629)
Zach Randolph (0.628)
Kevin Garnett (0.620)

Next 5: Murphy, Blair, Landry, Odom and Scola.

Kevin Love has the highest rebound rate of any power forward in the league, but is only playing 29 minutes per game…One thing’s for sure — Anthony Randolph wasn’t getting enough minutes prior to his ankle injury. He’s obviously very talented, but doesn’t seem to be mature enough to handle the ups and downs of an NBA season…Josh Smith really stuffs the stat sheet. Not only does he post a 15-9, he also averaged 4.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks per game…Marreese Speights, Tyrus Thomas, Paul Millsap and Andray Blatche came in 16th, 17th, 18th and 21st, respectively, though Speights has only played 670 minutes this season playing behind Elton Brand…Who are the bottom five PFs playing at least 25 minutes a night? 1. Jared Jeffries, 2. Boris Diaw, 3. Jonas Jerebko, 4. Yi Jianlian and 5. Rashard Lewis. Those last three names are actually pretty surprising.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for small forwards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

LeBron James (0.827)
Kevin Durant (0.672)
Carmelo Anthony (0.644)
Corey Maggette (0.642)
Gerald Wallace (0.569)
Danny Granger (0.547)
Andrei Kirilenko (0.534)
Ersan Ilyasova (0.526)
Paul Pierce (0.492)
Kris Humphries (0.492)

Next 5: Deng, Gay, Hill, Marion, S. Jackson

Corey Maggette is one of the best in the league at getting to the line, so while seeing his name amongst the other top small forwards is a little odd, he is very good offensively (and plays for the Warriors, who really push the pace)…Ersan Ilyasova’s presence in Milwaukee more than makes up for the loss of Richard Jefferson, and has allowed the Bucks to stay competitive this season…Kris Humphries is averaging 7-5 in just 16.5 minutes per game, and should probably be getting more run…Neither Trevor Ariza (0.378) nor Ron Artest (0.375) are having particularly efficient seasons…Who are the bottom five SFs playing at least 25 minutes a night? 1. Shane Battier (the no-stats MVP), 2. Tayshaun Prince, 3. Richard Jefferson, 4. Corey Brewer and 5. Al Thornton.

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For an overview of this statistic (and the point guard numbers), click here. I ran the numbers for shooting guards, and here are the top 10 in EPM:

Dwyane Wade 0.672
Kobe Bryant 0.610
Brandon Roy 0.545
Manu Ginobili 0.545
Joe Johnson 0.522
Andre Iguodala 0.512
Mike Miller 0.488
Jason Richardson 0.465
Jamal Crawford 0.462
Vince Carter 0.452

Next 5: Martin, Harden, Morrow, Terry, D. Wright

The top 5 are the same as Hollinger’s PER rankings…Mike Miller? Hell yeah. He’s averaging 10-6-3 and is shooting 56% from the field and 56% from long range. That’s some serious efficiency…Before you ask, Monta Ellis (0.486) is listed with the point guards. He’d be #8 on the SG list, though remember, these numbers are not pace-adjusted…O.J. Mayo is #17, which doesn’t account for what he brings to the table defensively. He’s also hurt by the fact that he plays a ton of minutes (38.5), while a guy like Vince Carter puts up similar numbers in 31 minutes a game…Top rookie? James Harden, averaging 10-3-2 in 23 minutes per game…Who are the bottom five SGs getting 25+ minutes? 1. Charlie Bell, 2. Anthony Parker, 3. Rasual Butler, 4. Brandon Rush, and 5. Thabo Sefolosha.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Man, has it been that long? Almost four years ago, I started discussing Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which is essentially the NBA’s efficiency statistic divided by the number of minutes that a guy plays. Please note that I have no idea if I invented this statistic, but I probably didn’t. Anyway, it doesn’t matter, because I don’t see anyone else using it at the moment.

I’ve always liked efficiency because it adds up all the quantitative positives that a player can post (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) while penalizing the player for missing a lot of shots or a lot of free throws, or turning the ball over. EPM takes this a step further because it allows us to compare a player getting 25 minutes per game with one that plays 35 minutes a night. John Hollinger’s PER is nice in that I don’t have to sit down and crunch the numbers, but I always found it odd that, every season, he arbitrarily sets the average at 15.00.

There are a couple of things I don’t like about EPM. First, there are always an inordinate number of centers and power forwards at the top of the EPM rankings because they’re generally closer to the basket when they shoot (resulting in more makes and fewer misses) and their secondary function (rebounds) are easier to get than a guard’s secondary function (assists). So while it is a good tool to compare players that play the same position, it’s not great for comparing a center to a point guard…but I doubt that a tool like that even exists.

Secondly, it’s not pace-adjusted. PER is. The amount of work that would go into applying a pace to each player’s numbers is mind-boggling, especially those players that change teams within a year, and I don’t think that the powers-that-be at The Scores Report want me to put that kind of time in on this topic. So keep that in mind when looking at these numbers. Lastly, I don’t like how the number looks — it’s always 0.XYZ, but it’s not a percentage like batting average, which is easily understood.

That said, I still like EPM. As futile as it is to create one number that encompasses a player’s entire game, EPM does as well as any. Defensively, it only rewards steals and blocks, so there is a large part of a player’s skill set that isn’t accounted for, but that’s true of any widely-used statistic in the NBA.

Over the next few days, I’ll run down the top 10 players at each position. I set the cutoff at 675 minutes played, figuring a player would have to play 15 minutes per contest for 45 games to make the list. Let’s start with the point guards.

Point Guards:
Chris Paul 0.723
Steve Nash 0.667
Deron Williams 0.599
Chauncey Billups 0.587
Rajon Rondo 0.572
Jason Kidd 0.542
Tyreke Evans 0.519
Gilbert Arenas 0.514
Baron Davis 0.512
Luke Ridnour 0.511

Next 5: Westbrook, Calderon, Robinson, Lowry, Rose

It’s hard to argue with the way that the first five are ranked, and the top 5 are exactly the same as how Hollinger’s PER ranks them…In a real-world ranking, Derrick Rose would certainly be higher, but if you look at his numbers, he’s only averaging 5.8 assists and 0.8 steals, and both averages are on the lower end of the elite PGs. The fact that the Bulls are the 6th-worst shooting team probably doesn’t help his assists, either…Clearly, Ridnour is high, but he is having a great year and is benefiting from playing limited minutes (22.0) largely against opponents’ bench players. But he’s shooting 47% from the field, 39% from 3PT and 92% from the charity stripe, so he has been a very efficient shooter. He and Kyle Lowry would be guys to target as placeholders for teams looking for an upgrade at the point…There is reason for Knicks fans to be optimistic about Sergio Rodriguez (0.464, PG21). He only played about 14 minutes a game this season, but he has been productive…Who are the least effective point guards playing more than 25 minutes a game? 1. Rafer Alston, 2. Derek Fisher, 3. Chris Duhon, 4. Steve Blake and 5. Kirk Hinrich.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

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