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Raiders far from being competitive

JaMarcus RussellAfter adding quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and explosive running back Darren McFadden in the first round this past April, many pundits were high on the Raiders entering the season. It also helped that the team re-signed DL Tommy Kelly and added Pro Bowl cornerback DeAngelo Hall and S Gibril Wilson.

But after Oakland was smacked 41-14 by division rival Denver on Monday night, it’s painfully obviously the Raiders are still a year or two away from competing.

Russell (17 of 26, 180 yards, 2 TDs) was under constant pressure and although his final numbers looked good, the Broncos never allowed him to get into a rhythm. McFadden chipped in with 46 yards on nine carries, but the Raiders fell behind so quickly that it was hard to stick with the run.

Perhaps the most staggering thing from the game was how bad Oakland’s defense looked. The front seven couldn’t generate any pass rush and Denver quarterback Jay Cutler completely picked apart the Raiders’ secondary, which was supposed to be a strength. Hall was absolutely abused by rookie receiver Eddie Royal, who amassed nine receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown. At one point Mike Dikta (who was in the announcers’ booth) said, “Hall wants no part of Eddie Royal,” and Da Coach was right. The Raiders gave up multiple draft picks in the offseason to acquire Hall and pair him with Pro Bowler Nnamdi Asomugha, but all the team got from him Monday night was multiple personal foul penalties and crap coverage.

While the Raiders still look a ways awhile, Cutler and the Broncos were outstanding. The defense was relentless, Royal and Cutler were outstanding and the running game was once again effective. Denver will get a great test next weekend when they host division rival San Diego. (A pissed off San Diego, that is.)

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 2

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. This week is especially important as owners everywhere will be scrambling to pick up the league’s surprise performers. With Tom Brady, Vince Young and Brodie Croyle missing significant time, QB is especially important this week.

I’ll use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Matt Cassel (0.2)
Clearly, this is the pickup for Brady owners. They’re probably behind the eight ball and they might as well gamble with the guy taking Brady’s place. Can he play? Who knows, but he has a load of weapons around him.

2. Vince Young (46.8)
Yes, he’s hurt, but he doesn’t belong on the waiver wire in deep leagues.

3. Jeff Garcia (25.9)
Garcia is steady and a solid bye week fill in.

4. Trent Edwards (8.7)
Edwards is beginning to look like a starting NFL QB. I can see starting him against weaker defenses.

5. Matt Ryan (14.1)
Ryan played pretty well against a bad Lions secondary. He’ll have his ups and downs.


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Fantasy Fallout, Week 1: Broncos 41 @ Raiders 14

All right, I’m applying a five-year (or maybe a ten-year) moratorium on myself – I’m not going to draft any Denver running backs in the first eight rounds. I’ve been touting Selvin Young all summer, and even though Andre Hall’s emergence started to worry me, I stuck with my recommendation to draft Young in the 5th or 6th round. As always, Mike Shanahan (a.k.a. “Skeletor”) found a way to screw me. While Young did start, and he did score a touchdown, Denver is clearly…CLEARLY…a RBBC. Young had four carries through three quarters, and finally got the rock regularly on a fourth quarter drive, which he punctuated with a 5-yard score. Andre Hall led the team in carries (10) and yards (61), while Michael Pittman…MICHAEL PITTMAN…is the team’s goal line back; he scored twice. Unless Hall goes down with an injury, I think Young owners are in for a long, frustrating year…As you can see, I’m not afraid to skewer myself when I’m wrong. But I’m not afraid to break my arm patting myself on the back, either. I’ve been touting Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal too (and maybe more), and they both delivered in a big way. Cutler threw for 299 yards and two scores, while Royal one-upped DeSean Jackson’s NFL debut by posting nine catches for 146 yards and a TD. Mike Ditka was impressed with his route running, which is especially laudable considering he was going up against two very good cornerbacks in Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall. Simply stated, Royal filleted them. Brandon Marshall will be Denver’s WR1, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Royal finished with 75-80 catches for 1200 yards. He’s that good. As for Cutler, he looked awesome. He was cool, calm and collected, and in complete control of the Denver offense. He has a gun and he’s accurate as well. I think he’s in for a big year…Tony Scheffler had one big reception for 72 yards and Darrell Jackson had a 48-yard TD catch…The Denver offense as a whole looked great, so Matt Prater would be a good pickup at kicker…JaMarcus Russell finished with good numbers (180 passing yards, 2 TD), but he was shaky at the start. He had a couple of near-misses with Ronald Curry (2-18-1), but finally settled in during the second half and started hitting his receivers…Ashley Lelie (3-37-1) could have value if Javon Walker continues to miss time with a “bad hammy” and Zach Miller (4-34) will probably put up better numbers as the season wears on…Justin Fargas turned 20 touches into 109 yards while Darren McFadden had 10 touches for 57 yards. It’s not clear if this was by design or if the coaching staff decided to rein in McFadden once the game got out of control to avoid making the night any worse by risking a potential injury to their prized draft pick.

Tuesday Morning Update: McFadden apparently left the game with a shoulder injury. If he misses any time, Justin Fargas becomes a legitimate fantasy RB2.

Fantasy Football Impact Rookies

In the realm of fantasy football, using early picks on rookies is usually a dicey proposition. It’s not often that a rookie comes into the league and is able to quickly establish fantasy relevance, though a few players do break through every season. Typically, a few running backs make an immediate impact, as that is the easiest position to transition to from college. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were drafted for the sole purpose of taking over their team’s running game, and they both went on to have successful seasons. Even an undrafted rookie like Ryan Grant can have an impact if he finds the right situation. (I was lucky enough to snatch him off the waiver wire before he went on his 10-game train ride to fantasy stardom. I went on to win the title in that league despite disappointing performances from two of my keepers – Shaun Alexander and Marvin Harrison.)

Last year’s wide receiver crop was a bit thinner. Dwayne Bowe was the top rookie, finishing in the top 20 in most scoring formats. This was an upset considering all the fantasy owners that were drooling over Calvin Johnson’s intangibles before the season started. James Jones and Anthony Gonzalez flirted with fantasy relevance, but otherwise rookie wideouts didn’t make much of an impact in 2007. But every year, it seems like there’s one or two that become starter-worthy. (Who can forget Marques Colston’s 2006 campagin?)

So let’s take a look at this year’s top fantasy rookies and see who’s likely to make an impact.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (pictured)
Stewart is a power back and that’s the Panthers’ style. DeAngelo Williams has been something of a disappointment, so if Stewart runs well during the rest of the preseason, it’s not inconceivable that he could earn a starting role. However, durability is a concern with Stewart, so it is more likely that the Panthers will split carries to keep him fresh and injury-free.

2. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Due to his combination of strength and speed, some compare the #4 overall pick to Adrian Peterson. McFadden joins Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the Raider backfield. Fargas had something of a breakout season in 2007 and Bush is running very well in camp, but McFadden will still get his touches. The team has said they’d like to use McFadden like the Saints used Reggie Bush in his rookie season. Oakland won’t want to wear him out, so this looks like a RBBC for the time being.

3. Matt Forte, Bears
The Bears drafted Forte in the second round to shore up a struggling running game. Cedric Benson was a bust, but the offensive line has been suspect for a couple of years now, so there’s no telling just how much Forte will help Chicago’s ground game. He has looked solid in the preseason, and should be a solid RB3 in most fantasy leagues.

4. Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is one of the more promising rookies simply because the Lions don’t have any other good options at tailback. Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun haven’t made their mark, so it’s Smith’s job to lose. He has had durability and character issues during his career, so there is some question as to whether or not he can hold up to the wear-and-tear of a 16-game season. Still, given the lack of competition, he’s an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick.

5. Chris Johnson, Titans
The diminutive speedster seems to be earning a bigger and bigger role as the preseason wears on. LenDale White will get most of the work between the tackles (and, presumably, around the goal line), but Johnson will see a lot of work in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (pictured)
With Willis McGahee coming off of knee surgery, and Rice impressing in camp, there’s a real possibility that the rookie starts at tailback in Week 1. There are rumblings that the team is none too happy with McGahee’s (lack of a) work ethic, so Rice’s value is enhanced in keeper or dynasty leagues.

7. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
The Steelers raised some eyebrows (including Willie Parker’s) when they drafted Mendenhall in the first round. For now, they see him as a complement to “Fast” Willie, but he should eventually turn into an every-down back. The writing is on the wall for Parker; it’s just a matter of time before Mendenhall takes over as the Steelers’ feature back.

8. Steve Slaton, Texans
Ahman Green is hurt. Big surprise. Chris Brown is hurt. Big surprise. Somebody has to carry the ball in Houston and Slaton is second in line after Chris Taylor. Slaton has better speed, but Taylor is a little more physical. If Green and Brown continue to miss time, we might be looking at a Taylor/Slaton RBBC in Houston.

9. Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones is the “lightning” to Marion Barber’s “thunder,” but this isn’t a timeshare. Barber is the main back, and Jones will be used to spell him and to add some punch out of the backfield in the passing game. Barber owners should definitely target Jones as a handcuff in the late-middle rounds.


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