While they’ve started the year 2-0 and have a winnable game against the Browns coming up this Sunday, all is not right with the Ravens.
After two games, Baltimore’s secondary has given up 580 yards through the air and 50 points. That’s 290 passing yards and 25 points per game, which are two big reasons why the Ravens currently own the fourth worst defense in the league right now.
That ranking is jarring considering the Ravens have had one of the most feared defenses in the league for almost a decade and employ the likes of All-Pro safety Ed Reed in their secondary. But it’s apparent that Baltimore’s D is still transitioning from Rex Ryan to new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison’s scheme and it might take a while for the unit to gel.
Last month we started looking at last season’s statistics for position players in fantasy football land, and today we’ll look at a position many often overlook. That’s fantasy defenses, which can sometimes put up just enough points to earn your team a victory once in a while. It’s always smart to try and grab one of the top units, although as we’ve seen before, things change, sometimes drastically, from year to year with fantasy D’s. Me? I like to grab my defense before my kicker. This list is based on point totals from one of my leagues, so keep in mind that stats vary from year to year.
1. Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens’ defense is perennially awesome, and we’ll find out for sure how much of that was due to former coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now the head honcho for the Jets. Ryan took plenty of players with him too, like LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, but the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. Reed just keeps getting better every year, and his sick nose for the ball is one reason the Ravens had a league high 26 picks. They will keep scoring low as always, but their 34 sacks last season isn’t much to get excited about. Bottom line: The Ravens won’t be a number one this year, but are still top 10.
I was watching one of the many Mel Kiper and Todd McShay arguments on ESPN the other day [video], and Kiper was arguing that if McShay has Matthew Stafford ranked so high (McShay currently has Stafford ranked #8), then he should almost be a no-brainer for the Detroit Lions, who have the #1 overall pick and need a quarterback. McShay isn’t convinced that he’s a so-called “franchise” quarterback, so he says he would go another direction. (For the record, at the time Kiper called McShay “crazy” for having Stafford that high, but now he has the QB ranked #3 on his big board. It’s clear that Kiper’s pure hatred for McShay is causing him to slowly lose his mind.)
Anyway, the debate piqued my interest and got me wondering – when it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Lions have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, linebacker and tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?
Before I wrote my Divisional Preview last week, I gave a jab to all the losing teams from Wild Card Weekend. So I think it’s only fair to the Falcons, Colts, Dolphins and Vikings that I do the same to the losers from the divisional round.
Tennessee Titans: Spend some time this offseason finding another offensive weapon besides Chris Johnson. I swear at one point during the game last week I actually saw Kerry Collins look to dump a pass to the Titan bench because he knew Johnson was sitting there nursing his injured ankle.
Carolina Panthers: Jake, black shirts, silver helmets, bro. Does anyone else wonder if one of the Panthers went up to Delhomme in the locker room after the game, stopped at his locker, looked him dead in the eye and said, “Happy f’ing birthday, Jake. Way to cost us the game”?
New York Giants: Eli, you’ve been playing in New York (New Jersey, actually) for four years now. You’re telling me you still haven’t figured out how to throw with that wind by now? Don’t blame yourself, though. Your coach should have deferred to the second half and put his defense (his strength) on the field first to start the game. Losing to the Eagles at home was a collective effort.
San Diego Chargers: I read that the general feeling out of Chargers’ camp was that Santonio Holmes’ punt return for a touchdown in the first quarter set off a chain of mistakes and miscues leading to San Diego’s loss in Pittsburgh. Yeah that, and the fact that Willie Parker did whatever he wanted, the Chargers only held the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter and they couldn’t stop the big play. But that was it.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) Sunday, January 18, 3:00PM ET Current Odds: Eagles –4 Over/Under: 47 Game Outlook:
What the hell do we make of the Cardinals now? They stumbled into the postseason, so everyone (myself included) thought, “Well, this team won’t make it past the first round.” Then they beat the Falcons by shutting down Michael Turner, which happened to be the one thing many pundits said that they would have trouble with. But then everyone (myself included) thought, “Well, now they have to go on the road. And there’s no way they’ll win on the road.” Then they go to Carolina and absolutely crush the Panthers 33-13. Now there seems to be two schools of thought with these Cardinals from Arizona. The first being that the Falcons and Panthers made their job a hell of a lot easier by collectively turning the ball over nine times in two games. The second being that the Cards are for real and that everyone has disrespected them the past two weeks. Personally, I think ‘Zona falls somewhere in between. Do I think they were handed some golden opportunities to win over the past two weeks? Yeah. Do I think that they’re better than what everyone (one more time: myself included) thought they were? Yeah. But the Eagles are playing some damn good football right now and probably won’t make the same glaring mistakes that the Falcons and Panthers did. Philly also measures up well with Arizona given that their secondary is outstanding and that they’re playing with a ton of confidence. This game will come down to three things for both teams: 1) don’t turn the ball over, 2) convert on third downs and 3) play good defense. Whichever team is successful in those three areas of the game will win. And if you think that’s too simple then look at all of the playoff games played so far this season. The losing team turned the ball over more, couldn’t convert on third downs and couldn’t stop their opponent from making the big play. X-Factor:DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
Jackson has breathed life into Philly’s passing attack and he’s provided a spark in the return game. If Brian Westbrook isn’t 100%, Jackson will have to make plays to give the Eagles a shot at making their second Super Bowl appearance in four years. It’ll also help if Andy Reid can line Jackson up in the “Wildcat” formation and allow him to make plays running the ball, too. Because Donovan McNabb can’t win on his own, even though he’s playing outstanding football right now. Prediction:Cardinals 24, Eagles 21
Why the Cardinals? Because I think they’re destined to win. Nobody thought that they would be here right now and nothing in the NFL has made sense all year (i.e. the Eagles are probably the better overall team, so why should they win, right?). The Cards are also at home (where they play remarkably better than they do on the road) and I can already see the Kurt Warner headlines in the paper Monday morning.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Sunday, January 18, 6:30PM ET Current Odds: Steelers -6 Over/Under: 34 Game Outlook:
Even though the divisional round essentially provided two duds (I know the Ravens-Titans game was close, but it really wasn’t that good of a game), I’m once again looking forward to what the AFC brings to the table this week. These are the two best defenses in the league (if not the NFL) and it’s going to be great to see how Rex Ryan and Dick LeBeau attack the opposing offense. The Ravens’ game plan has been simple the past two weeks in that they’ve relied on playing great defense and not turning the ball over offensively. Rookie Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in either of Baltimore’s two postseason wins, but the key is that he hasn’t turned the ball over. He has taken a couple of big shots down the field (mainly to Derrick Mason in the win last week) and converted, so that could once again play a factor this Sunday. The Ravens aren’t going to do anything different Sunday than they did the past two weeks – they’re going to play things conservative and win this game with defense. For the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the picture of perfect health right now, so it’ll be interesting to see what Ryan does to get pressure on Big Ben and force him to make mistakes like the Titans were able to in their Week 16 win over the Steelers. Of course, if Baltimore can’t stop Willie Parker than this game will be over before it starts. Parker had a great game in Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego last week and it forced the Chargers to be less aggressive. San Diego couldn’t get any pressure on Roethlisberger and he was able to hit them for big plays in the passing game. If the Ravens can effectively blitz him, he’s always likely to hold onto the ball too long, take sacks or turn the ball over. How effective Baltimore’s defense is will be what determines whether or not they’ll be playing for a Super Bowl title in two weeks. Pittsburgh’s defense is outstanding, but it’ll be the opportunities that the Ravens force via their defense that will be the determining factor in which team comes out victorious. X-Factor:Terrell Suggs, LB/DE, Ravens
The Ravens need this guy to play. His status for Sunday is still uncertain as he continues to nurse an injured shoulder, but things don’t look promising. He’s been one of the best edge rushers in the league since he came into the NFL and he’ll be needed to drum up a pass rush against Big Ben. If he doesn’t play, that’s a huge blow to the Baltimore defense. Prediction:Ravens 13, Steelers 10
It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season and with Big Ben’s injury a concern, I think Baltimore wins this with defense. Either way, this is going to be an outstanding game.
Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.
Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.
Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…
Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.
Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.” You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.
Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)
Moving on…
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3) Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET Opening Odds: Titans –3 Over/Under: 34.5 Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over. X-Factor:Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times. Prediction:Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)
When Ed Reed intercepted five passes and made 85 total tackles as a rookie for the Baltimore Ravens in 2002, he changed the way NFL teams view safeties in terms of the draft. He was a true playmaker that could not only blanket the field in coverage, but also erase potential mistakes and be a force against the run.
Since then, more safeties like the Colts’ Bob Sanders, the Steelers’ Troy Polamalu and the Redskins’ LaRon Landry have been taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft (or in the cases of Polamalu and Landry, the top 20 of the NFL draft), because teams have come to realize just how much of an impact safeties could have in the right defensive scheme.
In the Ravens’ 27-9 playoff victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Reed once again demonstrated what a dynamic playmaker at the safety position could do for a defense. He intercepted Chad Pennington twice, one of which he returned 64-yards for a touchdown, and helped blanket Miami receivers for four quarters.
It’s only fair to note that Reed’s first interception was a poorly under thrown pass by Pennington, but the touchdown return essentially turned the momentum of the game in the Ravens’ favor. And Reed’s second interception in the second half (in which he jumped an underneath route in the red zone), put a dagger in the Dolphins’ comeback hopes. He changed the momentum of the game with just two plays and he’s a huge reason why Baltimore now has a date with No. 1-seeded Tennessee next weekend in the Divisional Round.
While establishing solid offensive and defensive lines and having a quality quarterback still remain the focal points for teams, enlisting a playmaker at safety should continue to be a top priority for playoff contending teams. Unfortunately getting their hands on one isn’t as easy as picking up toilet paper at the local grocery store, but it seems that the teams that have top safeties are the ones often making the playoffs on a consistent basis.
The Ravens-Titans game next weekend will feature two of the better safeties in the NFL with Reed matching wits with youngster Michael Griffin. Both teams played outstanding defensively this year and with the way the Ravens handled veteran Chad Pennington on Sunday, it’ll be interesting to see how Kerry Collins fares next weekend. What a great defensive battle that game will be.
What a bizarre season this has been. Two teams that many pundits figured would meet in the Super Bowl – the Cowboys and Patriots – didn’t even make the playoffs. While two teams expected to dwell the cellars of their respective divisions for another season – the Dolphins and Falcons – will be playing in round one of the postseason, which kicks off this weekend.
Below is a complete playoff preview for the four Wild Card games this weekend. In each game preview you’ll find a matchup breakdown, a player to keep an eye on, odds, and a predicted score. (What’s a game preview without a prediction?)
Rather amazingly, all four home teams are underdogs this weekend.
Atlanta Falcons (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) Saturday, January 3, 4:30 PM FOX Opening Odds: Falcons –2 Over/Under: 51 Game Outlook:
Outside of having to face Kurt Warner and a Cardinals’ offense that averages over 290 passing yards a game, this is a great matchup for the Falcons. Arizona has had issues stopping the run over the past couple weeks and before Edgerrin James cracked 100 yards Sunday against the Seahawks, no Cardinal rusher hit the 100-yard mark in the previous seven games. Offensively, that means Atlanta can do what it does best – put the game in the hands of Michael Turner. “The Burner” is coming off a 208-yard rushing performance in Week 17 and hasn’t shown signs of wearing down despite this being the first season that he’s had to carry the full rushing load. Look for the Falcons to try to wear down Arizona’s front seven throughout the game and keep the Cards’ explosive offense on the sidelines. Once the Cardinal safeties start to creep up to stop Turner, Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey can start taking shots down the field with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. Defensively, the Falcons will have to keep their safeties back in coverage and rely on their front seven to stop the Cardinals’ run game because corners Chris Houston and Dominique Foxworth can’t contain Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in one on one coverage. Although Boldin has missed the final two games with a shoulder injury, he’s expected to play, which is obviously huge for Warner and the passing game. But if they can’t run the ball they’ll be to one-dimensional and the Falcons will be able to sit back in coverage. X-Factor:John Abraham, Falcons DE
Abraham has been an absolute beast this season and if the Falcons can build a decent lead with their running game, it will allow Abraham to pin his ears back and head straight for the quarterback. Atlanta has done a nice job rotating their defensive linemen all season to keep them fresh and if Abraham can get pressure on Warner, he’s bound to make mistakes and turn the ball over. Prediction:Falcons 30, Cardinals 27.
Atlanta’s secondary is a concern (especially with safety Lawyer Milloy nursing a back injury), but the Vikings exposed the Cardinals two weeks ago and the Falcons will use the same blueprint.
I think I’d be surprised if the Baltimore Ravens did not have some sort of bounty — financial or otherwise — or at least some quiet pact, to try to knock Hines Ward onto the Pittsburgh sideline when they meet Dec. 14 in Baltimore. And though Terrell Suggs has sanitized his initial statements on bounties with a statement issued through the team’s PR staff (the most carefully sculpted, crafted words that Suggs has ever been assisted in feeling, if you know what I mean), it’s probably better to listen to the man who was Suggs’ head coach with the Ravens until this year.
Writing on his WNST.net “Brian Billick’s Blog” in Baltimore, Billick opined: “So-called ‘bounties’ by players [are] a commonplace occurrence in any locker room and similar to the bravado displayed on most schoolyards. Players are constantly motivating each other by putting a certain amount of money in a pool and the cash going to the player that ‘knocks’ so-and-so out of a game, or gets an interception for a TD, or pancakes a defender on a running play. This is standard operating procedure in virtually every locker room in the NFL … What is worth commenting on is how stupid it is to talk about it afterward. Locker room talk should be just that.”
Pretty revealing.
I kind of downplayed the issue when it first came out, but maybe the whole “bounty” issue is a big, underlying issue in the NFL. Still, what can the league do about it? They can fine players if they talk about it later but other than that, how are they going to stop players from getting together over the phone or secretly in the locker room and having money on trying to knock an opponent out?
During the “2 Live Stews” syndicated radio show on Oct. 17, when he was asked, “Did you all put a bounty out on that young man [Mendenhall],” Suggs replied, “Definitely. The bounty was out on him and the bounty was out on [Ward] — we just didn’t get him between the whistles.”
Also during the interview, Suggs called Ward “a dirty player” and “a cheap-shot artist. … We got something in store for him.”
Ray Anderson, the NFL’s executive vice president of football operations, said the league is looking into the comments.
Suggs later backpedaled:
“There wasn’t any bounty,” Suggs said, according to the newspaper. “He [the talk show host] asked me if there was a bounty and I just said I’m going to keep a watch on the guy. He [Ward] broke some guy’s jaw last week, and he tried to cheap shot JJ [Jarret Johnson]. He has also cheap-shotted Ed Reed. We’re just going to be on alert the next time we play him.”
I think comments like these are blown way out of proportion. Do we always have to hold what players say to the absolute literal meaning? Are we all really that naïve to think that Suggs and other players aren’t thinking to themselves before a game, “If I get a good shot on Hines Ward today, I’m going to take it”? Football is a physical game and players take a ‘kill or be killed’ attitude out to the field. Granted, some players are dirty and will take cheap shots, but a lot of the time these comments are said in jest to get fired up for a game.
You don’t think Suggs and the other Ravens want to pop Ward after he did this a few years ago? Of course they do. Saying they had a “bounty” on him was extreme, but again, I think this situation is being blown out of proportion. That said, I’m not surprised that the league is looking into it; they have an obligation to make sure no foul play is being carried out.
The Love of Sports ranked the top 10 Miami Hurricane players currently in the NFL (with YouTube highlight clips, by the way).
2. Reggie Wayne, Wide Receiver
Wayne was a rare four-year starter at Miami and set a school record with 173 career receptions. This wide receiver’s been an integral part of the Colts’ vaunted aerial attack since the team drafted him in 2001, and his receptions have increased in each of his seven seasons in the league. He was named to his first Pro Bowl in 2006 and followed it up with 104 receptions for a league-leading 1,510 yards last season. He’s recently supplanted Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s favorite target and hasn’t missed a game since 2002.
1. Ed Reed, Safety
Reed set Miami’s all-time interception record while leading the Canes to a national championship in 2001. He’s now the best defensive player on a Ravens unit that’s surrendered the second-fewest yards per game this season. He reads quarterbacks as well as any safety in the league and is regularly among the league leaders in interceptions. He’s made four consecutive Pro Bowls and was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2004. Good ole #20’s also a menace on special teams, where he’s blocked four punts in his career and returned one for a touchdown last season as well.
It’s amazing how many good NFL players the Canes have produced over the years.
