John Schuhmann of NBA.com wrote an interesting article last week that looks at how players perform in “the clutch” (i.e. the last five minutes of a game with a margin of five points or less).

So who is Mr. Clutch? The man in the picture.

Manu Ginobili has the highest true shooting percentage of any player in the last five seasons. He’s not a particularly good shooter (44%) in the clutch, but he gets to the line a ton and makes his free throws at a high rate (86%). Mehmet Okur is second and Steve Nash third.

You also might notice that there’s no Bryant, James, Wade or Carmelo Anthony in the top 10. They’re a little further down the list. James ranks 12th, Anthony ranks 22nd, Wade ranks 28th and Bryant ranks 38th.

Who has the biggest difference in overall TS% and clutch TS%? Or, in other words, who steps up their game the most in the clutch?

Okur is tops in that category, trailed by T.J. Ford and Carlos Boozer. Ginobili is fourth.

Who’s shooting declines the most in the clutch?

Kirk Hinrich is first, followed by Pau Gasol and Hedo Turkoglu.

Where do our big four stand? James and Anthony shoot better in the clutch, while Wade and Bryant do not.

It’s an interesting read.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

Don’t look now, but the Miami Heat are off to a 6-1 start. The team was supposed to be just treading water until they can acquire some help for their superstar, but they’ve played well early in the season. And the main reason is Wade. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game, and is shooting better than 45% from the field. If the Heat can win 50 games, he’ll be right in the thick of the MVP conversation.

Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.

D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.

TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?

DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.

TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.

DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.

TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?

DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.

TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?

DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.

TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.

DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.

TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.

DW: Yeah.

TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?

DW: Sure.

TSR: Were you a Bulls fan growing up?

DW: Oh, no question. Bulls fan. Jordan fan. The whole nine.

TSR: The Bulls have positioned themselves to make a run at a big-name free agent next summer, and you have made it clear that you are keeping your options open heading into 2010. Even though the Heat are over the cap, they tried to acquire Lamar Odom, but missed out. Do you think that they’ve done enough to build a team around you or are you looking for the franchise to make a big in-season trade this year?

DW: Well, we want to continue to add pieces. I think we have some pieces now. Over this year and even next year, I think they have the opportunity to add some more pieces so we can get back to being a championship-caliber team. I’m confident in my team that they’re going to do that, but right now I’m just leaving my options option. A player needs some opportunity to have some flexibility with this decision. I just want to make sure that I’m making the right decision for the long haul for me, and I’m going to take my time doing it. I’m going to focus on the basketball side of things now, and then worry about everything else later.

on where he’ll sign next summer…

“A player needs some opportunity to have some flexibility with this decision. I just want to make sure that I’m making the right decision for the long haul for me, and I’m going take my time doing it.”

TSR: You’ve won both an NBA championship and a gold medal in the Olympics. Can you compare the two experiences?

DW: They’re both unbelievable. If I never played another basketball game, I could be satisfied about some of the things I’ve done and places I’ve been. And to win a world championship in the NBA was a dream come true. And to win a gold medal was beyond my wildest dreams. To do it the way we did it with the caliber of people on that team, and the greatness on that team, was just phenomenal. I feel blessed to be a part of both.

TSR: I grew up outside of Milwaukee, so it was cool to see you take Marquette to the Final Four. When you were a junior in college did you have a feeling that you were going to become an All-NBA talent or did you have more modest expectations?

DW: (laughs) I didn’t know. I knew I had a strong work ethic and would get the most that I could out of my talent and my ability as possible, and whatever comes out of that comes. You always dream and hope that you could be an All-Star and win championships, but you never know until you’ve been put in that position. I’ve been very blessed in my six- going on seven-year career in the NBA already.

TSR: Is there an area of your game that you’d like to improve this season?

DW: I’m the kind of player that likes to fine-tune all parts of my game. But I’m going to continue to work on my range, and on my back-to-the-basket game as I get older so I don’t have to move around as much. And to continue to become a better leader. I think that’s the biggest thing and I think it would take me and my team to another level.

TSR: All right, that’s all I have for you. Thanks for speaking with us and I wish you the best of luck with the weekend and I hope everyone gets out to the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show. Good luck with everything.

DW: Thank you, boss. I appreciate it.

Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

Yesterday, when we learned that Lamar Odom called Lakers owner Jerry Buss to try to smooth things over, it seemed (fairly) inevitable that the two sides would come to some sort of understanding and Odom would return to the Lakers. But a day later, it looks like there is a real chance that he may end up signing with the Miami Heat.

Amid a growing sense around the league that the Miami Heat have a real shot at stealing Lamar Odom away from the Los Angeles Lakers, Odom is expected to take the weekend to ponder his next move.

Sources with knowledge of Odom’s thinking told ESPN.com that he has not abandoned hope of resuscitating serious negotiations with L.A. after Lakers owner Jerry Buss angrily pulled a three-year, $27 million offer off the table earlier this week.

According to a broadcast report Friday night from longtime L.A. television anchor Jim Hill, Odom called Buss directly on Thursday in an attempt to reignite talks.

The Heat, meanwhile, have made it clear that they are prepared to offer the richest contract they can in an attempt to convince Odom to stop haggling with the Lakers, with the Dallas Mavericks also eager to offer the same fallback option.

Heat star Dwyane Wade made a public plea Friday for Odom to return to the franchise that sent him to the Lakers in the Shaquille O’Neal deal in the summer of 2004, announcing that “we want him back home.”

According to sources close to the process, Odom has been apprised that he can sign a five-year Heat deal consuming all of the team’s mid-level exception, which would be worth $34 million and include the option to return to free agency after three years and negotiate a larger contract with Miami.

Read the rest of Marc Stein’s column (which he’s been updating throughout this process) here.

I think this all comes down to Jerry Buss’s mood. Odom wouldn’t have called him if he didn’t want to take the Lakers’ offer. But Buss pulled the offer after negotiations fell apart, and it’s not clear how willing he is to open talks again.

Ultimately, cooler heads are likely to prevail. With Richard Jefferson landing in San Antonio, Shawn Marion headed to Dallas, and Portland sitting on a load of cap space, the Lakers’ Western Conference foes are getting better, and even though they signed Ron Artest, they know they can’t afford to lose both Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom this summer.

Or maybe they can. Like I said, this all depends on Jerry Buss. He made Odom an offer that was well above his market value and Odom’s camp tried to put the squeeze on him.

Hell hath no fury like an owner scorned.