John Schuhmann of NBA.com wrote an interesting article last week that looks at how players perform in “the clutch” (i.e. the last five minutes of a game with a margin of five points or less).

So who is Mr. Clutch? The man in the picture.

Manu Ginobili has the highest true shooting percentage of any player in the last five seasons. He’s not a particularly good shooter (44%) in the clutch, but he gets to the line a ton and makes his free throws at a high rate (86%). Mehmet Okur is second and Steve Nash third.

You also might notice that there’s no Bryant, James, Wade or Carmelo Anthony in the top 10. They’re a little further down the list. James ranks 12th, Anthony ranks 22nd, Wade ranks 28th and Bryant ranks 38th.

Who has the biggest difference in overall TS% and clutch TS%? Or, in other words, who steps up their game the most in the clutch?

Okur is tops in that category, trailed by T.J. Ford and Carlos Boozer. Ginobili is fourth.

Who’s shooting declines the most in the clutch?

Kirk Hinrich is first, followed by Pau Gasol and Hedo Turkoglu.

Where do our big four stand? James and Anthony shoot better in the clutch, while Wade and Bryant do not.

It’s an interesting read.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

Read the rest of this entry »

With the reloaded Wizards in town, D-Wade took over, scoring 41 points on 14-29 shooting. He hit 12-13 from the charity stripe and posted five rebounds, five assists, three steals and a block en route to a 90-76 win over Washington.

Don’t look now, but the Miami Heat are off to a 6-1 start. The team was supposed to be just treading water until they can acquire some help for their superstar, but they’ve played well early in the season. And the main reason is Wade. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game, and is shooting better than 45% from the field. If the Heat can win 50 games, he’ll be right in the thick of the MVP conversation.

Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.

D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.

TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?

DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.

TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.

DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.

TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?

DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.

TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?

DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.

TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.

DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.

TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.

DW: Yeah.

TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?

DW: Sure.

Read the rest of this entry »

Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

Yesterday, when we learned that Lamar Odom called Lakers owner Jerry Buss to try to smooth things over, it seemed (fairly) inevitable that the two sides would come to some sort of understanding and Odom would return to the Lakers. But a day later, it looks like there is a real chance that he may end up signing with the Miami Heat.

Amid a growing sense around the league that the Miami Heat have a real shot at stealing Lamar Odom away from the Los Angeles Lakers, Odom is expected to take the weekend to ponder his next move.

Sources with knowledge of Odom’s thinking told ESPN.com that he has not abandoned hope of resuscitating serious negotiations with L.A. after Lakers owner Jerry Buss angrily pulled a three-year, $27 million offer off the table earlier this week.

According to a broadcast report Friday night from longtime L.A. television anchor Jim Hill, Odom called Buss directly on Thursday in an attempt to reignite talks.

The Heat, meanwhile, have made it clear that they are prepared to offer the richest contract they can in an attempt to convince Odom to stop haggling with the Lakers, with the Dallas Mavericks also eager to offer the same fallback option.

Heat star Dwyane Wade made a public plea Friday for Odom to return to the franchise that sent him to the Lakers in the Shaquille O’Neal deal in the summer of 2004, announcing that “we want him back home.”

According to sources close to the process, Odom has been apprised that he can sign a five-year Heat deal consuming all of the team’s mid-level exception, which would be worth $34 million and include the option to return to free agency after three years and negotiate a larger contract with Miami.

Read the rest of Marc Stein’s column (which he’s been updating throughout this process) here.

I think this all comes down to Jerry Buss’s mood. Odom wouldn’t have called him if he didn’t want to take the Lakers’ offer. But Buss pulled the offer after negotiations fell apart, and it’s not clear how willing he is to open talks again.

Ultimately, cooler heads are likely to prevail. With Richard Jefferson landing in San Antonio, Shawn Marion headed to Dallas, and Portland sitting on a load of cap space, the Lakers’ Western Conference foes are getting better, and even though they signed Ron Artest, they know they can’t afford to lose both Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom this summer.

Or maybe they can. Like I said, this all depends on Jerry Buss. He made Odom an offer that was well above his market value and Odom’s camp tried to put the squeeze on him.

Hell hath no fury like an owner scorned.

The new salary cap figure is out, and it dipped slightly from last season.

The new figures for 2009-10 just announced by the league have set the salary cap at $57.7 million per team — down $1 million from $58.7 from 2008-09 — and the luxury-tax threshold at $69.9 million.

More importantly, the league is projecting a much bigger drop (as much as $8 million) heading into the 2010 season.

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by five percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

What does this mean? Well, a team like the New York Knicks, who are projected to have a payroll of about $23 million heading into 2010 would have had about $35 million to spend had the cap stayed at $58 million. That’s plenty of money to sign to superstars. If the cap drops $5-$8 million, it means that they’re projected cap space will be in the $27-$30 million range. That makes signing two “max” players quite tough.

This is probably good news for teams looking to retain their superstars, since they can go over the cap to re-sign players. If the cap does indeed drop to $50 million, it would increase the chances of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson staying put.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS has the video from Dwyane Wade’s late night appearance where he plays a prank on an unsuspecting fan.

- DEADSPIN has the story of the giant douche bag who tied up his girlfriend’s kids in the garage so he could hit the bar to watch the game.

- HUGGING HAROLD REYNOLDS was name-checked in John Gonzalez’s column about the Raul Ibanez steroid speculation, and the blog chimes in with its take. For Anthony Stalter’s measured take, click here.

- If you’re wondering what happened to Stephen A. Smith, he is doing a podcast on his website and AWFUL ANNOUNCING has it in YouTube form. He is in classic SAS form as he discusses Brett Favre.

- NO GUTS NO GLORY has quotes from Alonzo Mourning where he says that Phil Jackson isn’t really the coach of the 2009 Los Angeles Lakers.

The short answer is…maybe.

Have you noticed how all of this LeBron-to-the-Knicks talk has died down as the Cavs put up the best record in the NBA this season? That’s because Cleveland is a favorite to make the Finals, and with the way the Lakers are struggling against the Rockets out West, the Cavs are looking more and more like an NBA champion. If they do manage to win a title this year (or next), it will be very difficult for LeBron to jump ship without looking like a total a-hole. So he won’t. If he wins a ring, he’ll stay in Cleveland.

So the Knicks will have to look elsewhere for their superstar — enter Dwyane Wade. As Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel writes, the Big Apple would be an attractive destination for Wade.

The Knicks have the money. They have the allure. They have coach Mike D’Antoni’s fun style. They can tell Wade he would revive Knicks basketball and get the kind of spotlight only New York offers such stars. Who wouldn’t be tempted by all that?

So Hyde advocates that instead of waiting for 2010 and trying to add a star big man like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire while at the same time re-signing Wade, the Heat should go ahead and trade Michael Beasley to Toronto for Bosh this summer.

So there’s the Armageddon scenario for the Heat: It advances only slightly next year, misses on Bosh, has the Knicks singing a siren song to Wade … and loses him.

If you’re Riley, do you risk that? All for Beasley, who, much as I like him, posed as many questions as answers this season? Even Wade, who measures his words, allowed as to how Beasley frustrated him at times with the immaturity.

The best way to sign Wade this summer is to offer concrete evidence he can win big here. That means landing his friend, Bosh. They were Olympians together. They share the same agent. They respect each other greatly.

That’s why the smartest move to make is trading the salary-matching pair of Beasley and Mark Blount to Toronto for Bosh.

It’s an attractive scenario to wait until 2010 and add Bosh to a lineup that includes Wade and Beasley. But there’s a good chance that Bosh could sign with Cleveland or that the Knicks could come in and steal both Bosh and Wade away from the Heat. Why risk a future with Wade for the promise of Beasley? While it sounds a little crazy to trade a young player with a ton of upside for a guy you might be able to sign outright the next summer, it’s risk versus reward. A Wade/Bosh combo would guarantee the Heat would compete in the East for the next five years. Throw in the steady Udonis Haslem, a more mature Mario Chalmers and a small forward to be named later, and Heat would have a nice lineup. But the biggest reason the Heat should acquire Bosh is that it will almost guarantee that Wade re-ups as well.

Now the question is — will the Raptors go for it?